Analysis: Colby Covington vs Joaquin Buckley

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Joaquin Buckley to Win

Score: 12 Odds: Colby Covington: +200 Joaquin Buckley: -265

Colby Covington's Breakdown

Colby Covington is a seasoned welterweight contender known for his relentless pace, high-volume striking, and strong wrestling base. He uses constant forward pressure to wear opponents down and is excellent at mixing in takedowns with his strikes.

In his most recent fight against Leon Edwards for the welterweight title, Covington struggled with Edwards' striking and takedown defense. Edwards was able to stifle Covington's usual aggressive grappling and made him hesitant to engage. This loss marked Covington's second defeat in his last three fights, a concerning trend for the former interim champion.

At 35 years old, there are questions about how much Covington has left in the tank after a long career of grueling fights. His style is dependent on overwhelming cardio, and he has absorbed a lot of damage in recent bouts. Covington will need to prove he can still implement his taxing game plan effectively.

Joaquin Buckley's Breakdown

Joaquin Buckley is an athletic and explosive striker with legitimate one-punch knockout power. He has finished 70% of his wins by KO/TKO. Buckley is constantly pressuring opponents with powerful boxing combinations and head kicks.

Buckley is riding an impressive 5-fight win streak with 4 finishes, including a head kick knockout of Stephen Thompson. During this run, he has showcased improved wrestling and overall MMA skills to complement his dangerous striking.

At 28 years old, Buckley is entering his prime and looks better each time he steps into the octagon. His style could pose major problems for an aging Covington, especially if he can keep the fight standing and unload power shots.

Analysis and Key Points

• Covington will likely try to constantly pressure Buckley against the cage, mix in takedowns, and wear him down over 5 rounds with volume striking and a heavy top game.
• Buckley's takedown defense and defensive wrestling will be crucial. He needs to maintain distance, stuff takedowns, and make Colby pay with power strikes.
• Buckley has more paths to victory with his superior striking and new-found wrestling skills. Covington's style is more predictable.
• Covington has been rocked and damaged in recent fights, while Buckley has serious KO power. If Buckley connects clean, he could easily earn a stoppage.
• I favor Buckley to catch Covington at some point with a fight-changing power shot and finish him in the mid to late rounds.

Understanding the Prediction

The WolfTicketsAI model is strongly favoring Joaquin Buckley based on the following key factors from the data:

• Recent win percentage: Buckley has won 100% of his last 5 fights compared to only 33% for Covington. The model sees Buckley's momentum as a big advantage.
• Knockout power: Buckley lands 0.99 knockdowns per fight recently vs. only 0.06 for Covington. Buckley's power striking is seen as a serious weapon.
• Striking differential: In recent fights, Buckley lands 41.3 more significant strikes per fight than his opponents while absorbing 10.7 fewer. Covington, meanwhile, lands 58.9 more but absorbs 15.2 more in return. The model favors Buckley's striking efficiency.
• Defensive wrestling: Buckley defends takedowns at a 49% clip compared to 38% for Covington. This suggests Buckley may be able to stifle Covington's wrestling more than expected.

Past Model Performance

WolfTickets has correctly predicted Joaquin Buckley to win in 4 of his last 5 fights, with the only loss being a close split decision to Abdul Razak Alhassan in 2022.

Meanwhile, the model correctly picked against Covington in his title fight loss to Leon Edwards, making this an especially tough matchup on paper for the former interim champ coming off a defeat.

Conclusion

Joaquin Buckley looks primed to score the biggest win of his career over Colby Covington. His striking power, improved wrestling, and overall momentum make him a dangerous opponent for the aging Covington. Unless Covington can consistently take Buckley down and keep him smothered for 5 rounds, Buckley's explosive striking likely earns him a knockout. WolfTicketsAI predicts a mid to late round TKO victory for "New Mansa".