Analysis: Charles Radtke vs Carlos Prates

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Charles Radtke to Win

Score: 10 Odds: Charles Radtke: +165 Carlos Prates: -200

Tale of the Tape

Charles "Buffalo" Radtke, a 33-year-old fighter from Salem Lakes, Wisconsin, enters with a record of 9-3. He's 5'9" with a 72-inch reach, representing MMA MASTERS gym.

Carlos "The Nightmare" Prates, a 30-year-old Brazilian from Taubaté, Sao Paulo, has an 18-6 record. At 6'1" with a 78-inch reach, he has significant physical advantages. Prates represents Vale Top Team.

Charles Radtke's Breakdown

Radtke is coming off an impressive knockout over Gilbert Urbina in February 2024, showcasing his power. Before that, he earned a unanimous decision over Blood Diamond in September 2023.

Despite incorrectly picking against Radtke vs Urbina, WolfTicketsAI now favors him against Prates. Radtke's strong takedown defense (100% in the UFC) and striking defense (47.7%) are assets. He lands 3.29 significant strikes per minute at 52.9% accuracy.

Radtke's grappling pedigree from MMA MASTERS could be key to neutralizing Prates' length if he can close distance and wrestle. However, at 33 years old, Radtke may struggle with Prates' pace over three rounds.

Carlos Prates's Breakdown

Prates scored a knockout in his UFC debut over Trevin Giles in February 2024, immediately making a welterweight impact. The Tapology community predicts a 79% chance of Prates winning, most likely by decision.

However, there are concerns in Prates' stats. He absorbs 7.52 significant strikes per minute while landing only 4.09, a -30 differential. His striking defense is just 33.3%.

Prates does have power though, averaging 1.66 knockdowns per fight in his career. His height and reach could trouble Radtke on the feet, but also leave him open to takedowns.

Analysis and Key Points

• Radtke's takedown defense is a strength. He's yet to be taken down in the UFC. With Prates' low takedown attempt rate, this likely stays standing.

• Prates' striking defense is a concern, absorbing over 7 significant strikes per minute. Dangerous against a power puncher like Radtke.

• Radtke has more UFC experience, with two wins compared to one for Prates. More octagon time matters.

• Prates' length is an x-factor. It could trouble Radtke on the feet but also leave him vulnerable to Radtke's wrestling.

Understanding the Prediction

• Significant Striking Impact Differential heavily favors Radtke and was the top factor increasing the model's score. Radtke's +2.5 differential far exceeds Prates' -31.

• Striking Defense Percentage also favors Radtke (47.7% vs 33.3%) and helped boost the prediction score.

• Recent Takedowns Attempted increased the score for Radtke, likely because Prates has yet to try a takedown in the UFC. This points to a striking battle favoring Radtke.

• The betting odds favoring Prates did lower the score, but not enough to override the statistical factors in Radtke's favor.

Past Model Performance

The model has only one past prediction for these fighters - incorrectly picking Urbina over Radtke, who won by KO. There is no prediction history yet for Prates.

While the model is very confident in Radtke here, the limited prediction data does add some uncertainty. Radtke seems to have the right stylistic advantages, but the odds are not providing amazing value.

Conclusion

WolfTicketsAI predicts Charles Radtke to defeat Carlos Prates, which seems reasonable based on the matchup. Radtke's striking and takedown defense are strong edges over Prates.

However, there are some warning signs - the limited data on Prates in the UFC and the model's wrong pick against Radtke last time. Prates being a solid -200 favorite is also noteworthy.

Ultimately, Radtke should be favored and is the pick to win, but given the uncertainties, there isn't great betting value at these odds. This fight is ideal to watch and learn more about these rising welterweights.