Analysis: Andrea Lee vs Montana De La Rosa

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Andrea Lee to Win

Score: 15 Odds: Andrea Lee: -150 Montana De La Rosa: 125

Andrea Lee's Breakdown

Andrea Lee is a well-rounded fighter with a strong striking game and solid takedown defense. In her last fight against Cynthia Calvillo, she showcased her powerful striking, landing a vicious head kick that led to a KO/TKO victory in the second round. Lee's striking defense percentage of 54.64% and significant striking defense percentage of 62.73% are both higher than De La Rosa's, indicating she is better at avoiding damage on the feet.

However, Lee has struggled in some of her recent fights, losing 3 out of her last 5. She tends to have trouble against opponents with strong grappling skills, as seen in her unanimous decision losses to Roxanne Modafferi and Viviane Araujo. Lee will need to use her 80.65% takedown defense to keep this fight standing where she has the advantage.

Montana De La Rosa's Breakdown

Montana De La Rosa is a submission specialist with 8 of her 12 wins coming by way of submission. She averages 0.7999 submissions per fight and has a dangerous ground game. In her last win against Ariane da Silva, De La Rosa secured a rear-naked choke in the second round to get the finish.

On the feet, De La Rosa tends to absorb more strikes than she lands. Her striking defense percentage of 36.47% and significant striking defense percentage of 44.16% are both lower than Lee's. She does have a slight reach advantage at 68" compared to Lee's 69", but that likely won't be enough to overcome the striking discrepancy.

De La Rosa's path to victory is to get this fight to the ground where she can hunt for submissions. She averages 5.4850 takedown attempts per fight, so expect her to shoot early and often. If she can drag Lee into her world, she has a good chance of securing a submission victory.

Previous Fight Breakdown

These two fighters previously met in 2019, with Andrea Lee winning by unanimous decision. In that fight, Lee was able to stuff all 7 of De La Rosa's takedown attempts and keep the fight standing. She outlanded De La Rosa in significant strikes 78 to 34 en route to a clear-cut victory on the scorecards.

Significance of the Rematch

Despite their recent struggles, this rematch holds significant importance for both fighters. A victory could potentially revitalize their UFC careers and provide a much-needed boost in confidence. However, a loss could further jeopardize their standing within the promotion, given their recent lackluster performances.

Stylistic Matchup

In their first encounter, Lee's superior striking and movement proved to be the difference, as she outpointed De La Rosa over three rounds. De La Rosa will likely look to implement her grappling-heavy approach to neutralize Lee's striking advantage. On the other hand, Lee will aim to keep the fight standing and utilize her footwork and range to outmaneuver her opponent.

Analysis and Key Points

• Striking Advantage: Andrea Lee has the clear advantage in the striking department. She lands 4.69 significant strikes per minute compared to just 2.70 for De La Rosa.
• Grappling Advantage: Montana De La Rosa has the grappling advantage with her submission skills. If she can get Lee to the mat, she has a good chance of ending the fight.
• Previous Fight: In their first meeting, Lee was able to completely nullify De La Rosa's grappling and dominate on the feet. De La Rosa will need to make major adjustments to avoid a similar outcome here.

Understanding the Prediction

• Odds: The odds favor Andrea Lee at -150, and this was the biggest factor increasing the model's score by 6 points.
• Significant Striking Impact Differential: Lee has a much higher significant striking impact differential at 13.17 compared to -6.09 for De La Rosa. This increased the model score by 4 points.
• Recent Win Percentage: Neither fighter has won any of their last 5 fights, but overall Lee has the higher win percentage at 59.09% compared to 57.14% for De La Rosa. This moved the prediction score up by 3 points.
• Striking Defense: Lee is much better defensively on the feet with a striking defense percentage of 54.64% and significant striking defense of 62.73%. De La Rosa's striking defense is just 36.47% and significant striking defense of 44.16%. This increased the score for Lee by a combined 6 points.

Past Model Performance

The model has struggled with predictions for both fighters recently:

• For Andrea Lee, the model is just 1 for 4 in her last 4 fights. It correctly predicted her to lose to Maverick and Silva but incorrectly had her beating Barber and Araujo.

• For Montana De La Rosa, the model has been wrong in her last 3 fights. It predicted her to beat Aldrich and Barber but she lost both fights. The model did correctly predict her to lose to Suarez.

With the model's shaky recent performance, this prediction comes with some uncertainty. However, given the historic data between these two fighters and Lee's overall advantages, there is reason to believe the model has this one right despite the recent misfires.

Conclusion

The rematch between Andrea Lee and Montana De La Rosa promises to be an exciting and pivotal contest for both fighters. With their UFC careers potentially hanging in the balance, expect an intense and hard-fought battle as they seek to secure a much-needed victory.

In their first clash, Lee's striking and takedown defense were the keys to victory. De La Rosa will need to find a way to bring the fight to the mat and utilize her grappling if she hopes to even the score. But if Lee can maintain distance and stuff the takedowns as she did in 2019, she has a great chance of emerging victorious once again.

While both fighters are in the midst of losing streaks, the model believes Lee's striking advantage will be too much for De La Rosa to overcome. Look for "KGB" to keep it standing and outpoint her opponent on the feet to get back in the win column. The prediction comes with some hesitation given the model's recent struggles, but the historic matchup data points to another Andrea Lee victory.