Results: UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov

Fight Info:
Location: Louisville, Kentucky, United States
Elevation: 142.00m
WTAI Model
Main Under Full
33.33% 57.14% 46.15%
Profit Model
Main Under Full
50.0% 14.29% 30.77%
Plain Model
Main Under Full
66.67% 42.86% 53.85%
Selected Bets for Event:
ROI: %
Parlay Unsuccessful
Parlay of: Jared Cannonier, Dustin Jacoby, Raul Rosas Jr.
  • Odds: 311
Parlay Unsuccessful
Parlay of: Brunno Ferreira, Julian Marquez
  • Odds: 127
Parlay Unsuccessful
Parlay of: Miguel Baeza, Ludovit Klein
  • Odds: 168

The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.

The predictions below are shown in dark grey if they were correct, incorrect predictions are shown in red.
Main Card Predictions
Undercard Card Predictions
Fight Analysis
SHAP Chart

Analysis: Jared Cannonier vs Nassourdine Imavov

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Jared Cannonier to Win

Score: 3 Odds: Jared Cannonier: 110 Nassourdine Imavov: -130

Jared Cannonier's Breakdown

Jared "The Killa Gorilla" Cannonier is a veteran of the UFC's middleweight division, known for his explosive striking and knockout power. In his most recent fight against Marvin Vettori in June 2023, Cannonier showcased his grit and determination, winning a hard-fought unanimous decision and setting a record for the most significant strikes landed in a UFC middleweight bout with 241 strikes. Prior to that, he scored an impressive split decision victory over the tough Sean Strickland in December 2022.

Cannonier's striking is his biggest weapon, with a significant striking accuracy of 52.02% and a striking impact differential of 5.6875. He's particularly dangerous with his head strikes, landing 2.9306 per minute while only absorbing 2.8239. His leg kicks are also a key part of his arsenal, attempting 0.9364 per minute.

At 40 years old, Cannonier brings a wealth of experience and has faced top-tier competition in the UFC. His age, however, could be a factor in terms of endurance and recovery.

Nassourdine Imavov's Breakdown

Nassourdine Imavov is a rising star in the UFC's middleweight division, with an impressive record of 13 wins, 4 losses, and 1 no contest. In his most recent fight in February 2024, Imavov secured a majority decision victory over the formidable Roman Dolidze, showcasing his well-rounded skillset.

Imavov is a versatile fighter with a strong grappling game, averaging 1.4866 submissions per fight and 0.8672 takedowns per fight. His striking is also impressive, with a significant striking accuracy of 54.20% and a striking impact differential of 16.3750. He's particularly effective with his head strikes, landing 2.9732 per minute while only absorbing 1.9078.

At 28, Imavov is significantly younger than Cannonier and may have an edge in terms of speed and stamina. His height and reach advantage could help him keep Cannonier at bay and control the distance.

Analysis and Key Points

  • Striking Matchup: Both fighters are skilled strikers, but Cannonier has the edge in power, while Imavov has the advantage in accuracy and defense. Cannonier will likely look to land his heavy head strikes and leg kicks, while Imavov will aim to counter with his precise striking.
  • Grappling Threat: Imavov's grappling could be a key factor in this fight. With his high submission and takedown rates, he may look to take Cannonier down and work for a submission. Cannonier will need to be wary of this threat and work to keep the fight standing.
  • Experience vs Youth: Cannonier has the advantage of experience, with 23 UFC fights under his belt compared to Imavov's 8. However, at 40 years old, Cannonier may be nearing the end of his prime, while the 28-year-old Imavov is still improving.

Understanding the Prediction

  • Odds: The odds heavily favor Cannonier in this matchup, which aligns with the model's prediction. This increased the prediction score by 3.0.
  • Recent Win Percentage: Cannonier's recent win percentage of 0.67 is the same as Imavov's 0.67, which increased the prediction score by 3.0.
  • Striking Impact Differential: Cannonier's striking impact differential of 5.6875 is lower than Imavov's 16.3750, but still favors Cannonier and increased the prediction score by 1.0.
  • Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight: Imavov's recent takedowns attempted per fight of 3.3834 is significantly higher than Cannonier's 0.8984, which decreased the prediction score by 1.0.

Past Model Performance

  • The model has been correct in predicting 2 out of Cannonier's last 4 fights, incorrectly picking him to lose against Marvin Vettori in June 2023.
  • For Imavov, the model has a 50% accuracy rate, correctly predicting 2 out of his last 4 fights.
  • Given the model's mixed performance for both fighters, there is some uncertainty in this prediction. However, the strong odds in favor of Cannonier and his recent win percentage provide confidence in the pick.


In this intriguing middleweight clash, WolfTicketsAI predicts Jared Cannonier to emerge victorious over Nassourdine Imavov. Cannonier's explosive striking, knockout power, and veteran savvy give him the edge, but Imavov's youth, reach, versatile skill set, and grappling threat make him a live underdog.

Expect a closely contested battle with Cannonier's experience and striking power pitted against Imavov's speed, reach, and grappling. The outcome may hinge on whether Cannonier can impose his striking game or if Imavov can utilize his reach and grappling to control the fight.

While there is some uncertainty given the model's past performance, the odds and recent win percentage strongly favor Cannonier. This bout promises to be an exciting and competitive main event that fight fans won't want to miss.

SHAP Chart

Analysis: Dominick Reyes vs Dustin Jacoby

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Dustin Jacoby to Win

Score: 17 Odds: Dominick Reyes: 190 Dustin Jacoby: -230

Dominick Reyes's Breakdown

Dominick "The Devastator" Reyes is a formidable striker with a kickboxing and wrestling background. At 6'4" with a 77" reach, he holds a size advantage over many light heavyweights. Reyes's striking is powerful, landing 5.12 significant strikes per minute at 51% accuracy. His kicks, in particular, have led to several knockouts, with Reyes averaging 0.71 knockdowns per fight.

However, Reyes's recent performances have been concerning. He's currently on a four-fight losing streak, suffering three knockouts in that span. In his last bout against Ryan Spann, Reyes was finished in the first round. His 46% striking defense has been exploited, as he absorbs 2.15 significant strikes per minute. While Reyes has a wrestling pedigree, his 24% takedown defense leaves him vulnerable to grapplers.

Dustin Jacoby's Breakdown

Dustin "The Hanyak" Jacoby is a seasoned kickboxer with crisp, technical striking. He lands 5.59 significant strikes per minute at 46% accuracy, outpacing Reyes. Jacoby's defense is also superior, evading 58% of opponents' significant strike attempts. In the clinch, Jacoby excels at avoiding damage, absorbing just 0.30 strikes per minute.

Jacoby's power is evident in his 0.42 knockdowns per fight. His recent KO victory over Da Un Jung showcased his counter-striking abilities. On the ground, Jacoby has a 20% takedown accuracy, but more importantly, he defends 89% of opponents' takedown attempts, allowing him to keep the fight standing where he thrives.

Analysis and Key Points

  • Striking Clash: Both men are high-level strikers, but Jacoby seems to have the statistical edge. He lands slightly more significant strikes per minute and absorbs almost one fewer than Reyes. Jacoby's striking accuracy and defense are also better.
  • Reyes's Defensive Woes: Reyes's recent knockout losses are alarming. His 46% striking defense could be a liability against a precise striker like Jacoby, who has the skills to capitalize on any openings.
  • Momentum Favors Jacoby: While Reyes has lost four straight, Jacoby has won six of his last eight. The confidence and momentum clearly side with Jacoby here.
  • Grappling a Non-Factor: Given Reyes's weak takedown defense and Jacoby's low takedown accuracy, this fight will likely be contested on the feet. Expect a striking chess match with both men trying to find the finishing blow.

Additional Insights

  • Size Advantage for Reyes: At 6'4" with a 77" reach, Reyes is one of the larger light heavyweights. He'll have a 1-inch height and reach advantage over Jacoby, which could help him control distance and land his signature kicks.
  • Kickboxing Pedigree: Jacoby's extensive kickboxing background, including fights in GLORY, gives him a wealth of striking experience to draw upon. His ability to string together combinations and counter effectively could be key.
  • Reyes Seeking Redemption: After losing to elite competitors like Jon Jones and Jan Błachowicz, Reyes needs a win to remain relevant in the division. This fight is a chance to right the ship against a dangerous but beatable opponent.
  • Community Predictions Favor Jacoby: On Tapology, 77% of users predict a Jacoby win, most by KO or decision. Only 23% side with Reyes. The betting odds also heavily favor Jacoby. Public sentiment seems to be in his corner.

Understanding the Prediction

  • Odds: The betting odds significantly favor Jacoby, decreasing the model's score by 12 points when factoring in Reyes as the underdog.
  • Recent Win Percentage: Reyes's 0% win rate in his last 5 fights decreased the model score by 2 points. Jacoby's 33% win rate actually favored Reyes by comparison.
  • Significant Striking Impact Differential: Reyes lands 8.3 more significant strikes than he absorbs per fight, while Jacoby lands 13.23 more. This difference increased the score for Jacoby by 1 point.

Past Model Performance

The model has only predicted one Dominick Reyes fight, incorrectly picking him to beat Ryan Spann.

For Dustin Jacoby, the model has been less accurate, correctly predicting just 1 of his last 6 fights. It even incorrectly picked against Jacoby in his last 2 losses. This inconsistent record suggests the model's prediction here may warrant caution.


WolfTicketsAI favors Dustin Jacoby to defeat Dominick Reyes, and an in-depth analysis supports this prediction. Jacoby's superior striking metrics, defensive prowess, and recent success give him multiple avenues to victory.

However, Reyes's knockout power and the model's inconsistency in predicting Jacoby's fights do provide reasons for pause. Reyes will also enjoy a size advantage that could factor in if he can keep Jacoby on the end of his kicks.

Ultimately, this shapes up as a compelling kickboxing battle with a high probability of ending inside the distance. Jacoby appears to have more tools to get the job done, but Reyes is not far removed from fighting for titles and has the skills to turn back the clock with a vintage performance.

No matter the outcome, expect an exciting striking showcase with the winner poised for a marquee matchup in a talent-rich light heavyweight division.

SHAP Chart

Analysis: Raul Rosas Jr. vs Ricky Turcios

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Raul Rosas Jr. to Win

Score: 17 Odds: Raul Rosas Jr.: -230 Ricky Turcios: 190

Raul Rosas Jr.'s Breakdown

At just 19 years old, Raul Rosas Jr. is one of the brightest prospects in the UFC's bantamweight division. With an impressive 8-1 record, he's known for his elite grappling skills, averaging 3.57 takedowns and 1.78 submission attempts per 15 minutes in the octagon.

Rosas Jr.'s sole loss came by decision against Christian Rodriguez in April 2023, but he bounced back emphatically with a first-round TKO win over Terrence Mitchell in September 2023. While his striking is still developing, he showed improved power in his recent fight.

In his UFC debut against Jay Perrin in December 2022, Rosas Jr. showcased his slick submission skills, finishing the fight via rear-naked choke in the first round. His path to victory against Turcios will likely involve taking the fight to the ground early and often, where he can control the fight and hunt for submissions.

However, Rosas Jr.'s striking defense has been a concern, absorbing 2.05 significant strikes per minute while landing only 1.23. He'll need to shore up his defensive gaps against a high-volume striker like Turcios.

Ricky Turcios's Breakdown

At 30 years old, Ricky Turcios brings a wealth of experience to this matchup with a 13-3 record. Known for his high-volume striking and toughness, Turcios averages 5.08 significant strikes per minute with a solid 55% striking defense.

Turcios is returning after a 15-month layoff, with his last fight being a split decision win over Kevin Natividad in November 2022. Prior to that, he suffered a unanimous decision loss to Aiemann Zahabi in July 2022.

While primarily a striker, Turcios has a solid grappling background which could be crucial in defending against Rosas Jr.'s takedowns. His path to victory will involve using his awkward style and fast kicks to keep Rosas Jr. at a distance, preventing takedowns and racking up points with his striking volume.

If the fight does hit the mat, Turcios will need to be wary of Rosas Jr.'s slick submissions, particularly the rear-naked choke. His ability to defend submissions and scramble back to his feet will be key.

Previous Fight Breakdown

This will be the first meeting between Raul Rosas Jr. and Ricky Turcios.

Analysis and Key Points

  • Clash of Styles: This fight pits Rosas Jr.'s elite grappling against Turcios's high-volume striking. The key for Rosas Jr. will be to close the distance and secure takedowns, while Turcios will look to keep the fight standing and outland his younger opponent.

  • Youth vs Experience: Despite being just 19, Rosas Jr. has shown immense potential. However, he's facing a seasoned veteran in Turcios who has over 3 times as many pro fights and a wealth of experience.

  • Submission Threat: With 1.78 submission attempts per 15 minutes, Rosas Jr. is always a threat to finish the fight on the ground. Turcios will need to be wary of Rosas Jr.'s slick submissions, particularly his rear-naked choke.

  • Striking Volume: Averaging 5.08 significant strikes per minute, Turcios has the volume to overwhelm Rosas Jr. if he can keep the fight standing. Rosas Jr. will need to mind his striking defense, which has been a weakness in his young career.

Understanding the Prediction

  • Odds: The odds significantly favor Raul Rosas Jr. in this matchup, increasing the model's prediction score by 12 points. This suggests the betting market sees Rosas Jr. as a clear favorite.

  • TrueSkill: The TrueSkill metric, which measures a fighter's overall skill level, favors Rosas Jr., increasing the prediction score by 5 points.

  • Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight: Rosas Jr. has been very active in seeking takedowns in his recent fights, attempting 17.54 per fight. This increased the model's prediction score by 5 points, highlighting his grappling-heavy approach.

  • Striking Defense Percentage: Turcios has the edge in striking defense, successfully defending 55% of significant strikes compared to just 34.51% for Rosas Jr. This decreased the prediction score by 2 points.

  • Reach: Turcios will have a 4-inch reach advantage, which decreased the prediction score slightly by 1 point. However, this may be less impactful if Rosas Jr. can consistently take the fight to the ground.

Past Model Performance

The WolfTicketsAI model has had mixed results predicting these fighters' past bouts:

  • For Raul Rosas Jr., the model correctly predicted his win over Terrence Mitchell in September 2023 with high confidence (0.83). However, it incorrectly picked him to beat Christian Rodriguez in April 2023.

  • For Ricky Turcios, the model has been incorrect in its last two predictions, picking Kevin Natividad to beat him in November 2022 and Turcios himself to beat Aiemann Zahabi in July 2022.

Given the model's recent inaccuracy with these fighters, there is some uncertainty around this prediction. However, the strong odds and TrueSkill advantage for Rosas Jr. still point to him being a solid favorite.


WolfTicketsAI predicts Raul Rosas Jr. to defeat Ricky Turcios, giving the 19-year-old grappling phenom a 72% chance of victory. The betting odds, TrueSkill metric, and Rosas Jr.'s recent takedown attempts heavily favor the young prospect.

However, Turcios's experience, high-volume striking, and solid takedown defense make him a dangerous underdog. If he can keep the fight standing and land his awkward, fast-paced strikes, he has a path to victory.

Ultimately, look for Rosas Jr. to close the distance early and often, hunting for takedowns and submissions. If he can drag Turcios into his world on the mat, expect the supremely talented grappler to notch another impressive win. But if Turcios can stuff the takedowns and let his hands and feet go, we could be in for an upset.

This clash of styles between a grappling prodigy and a crafty striking veteran has all the makings of an intriguing matchup. While Rosas Jr. is favored, Turcios' experience and unpredictability make this a compelling fight where both men have clear paths to victory.

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Analysis: Brunno Ferreira vs Dustin Stoltzfus

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Brunno Ferreira to Win

Score: 15 Odds: Brunno Ferreira: -275 Dustin Stoltzfus: 220

Brunno Ferreira's Breakdown

Brunno "The Hulk" Ferreira is a powerful striker with a strong knockout record. At 31 years old, he stands at 5'10" with a reach of 72". Ferreira's aggressive style and heavy hands have led to 73% of his wins coming by way of KO/TKO. In his most recent fight against Phil Hawes in January 2024, Ferreira secured a devastating KO victory, showcasing his ability to end fights quickly. Despite suffering a KO loss to Nursulton Ruziboev in July 2023, Ferreira bounced back impressively with another KO win over Gregory Rodrigues.

Dustin Stoltzfus's Breakdown

Dustin Stoltzfus, 32, is a well-rounded fighter with a balanced mix of striking and grappling. Standing at 6'0" with a 75" reach, Stoltzfus has a slight height and reach advantage over Ferreira. His fighting style incorporates Muay Thai with a balanced approach to striking and grappling. In his last fight against Punahele Soriano in December 2023, Stoltzfus secured a submission victory via rear-naked choke, highlighting his dangerous ground game. However, he has struggled against high-level competition, suffering losses to Abus Magomedov and Gerald Meerschaert.

Analysis and Key Points

  • Striker vs. Grappler: This matchup pits Ferreira's striking prowess against Stoltzfus's grappling skills. Ferreira will aim to keep the fight standing and look for a knockout, while Stoltzfus may try to exploit Ferreira's ground game by seeking takedowns and submissions.
  • Knockout Power: Ferreira's knockout power is a significant factor in this matchup. His ability to end fights quickly with his striking could be the deciding factor.
  • Reach and Height Advantage: Stoltzfus's reach and height advantage could help him control the distance and avoid Ferreira's powerful strikes. Effective use of jabs and kicks could disrupt Ferreira's rhythm and set up opportunities for takedowns.
  • Grappling Skills: Stoltzfus's grappling skills could be his path to victory if he can take Ferreira down and control him on the ground.
  • Striking Defense: Ferreira's striking defense has been impressive, which could negate Stoltzfus's striking output. However, Ferreira's susceptibility to being knocked out, as seen in his loss to Ruziboev, could be a vulnerability.

Understanding the Prediction

  • Odds: The odds heavily favor Ferreira (-275), which aligns with the model's prediction and increases the score by 15.
  • Recent Win Percentage: Ferreira's recent win percentage is higher than Stoltzfus's, increasing the prediction score by 3.
  • Recent Significant Striking Impact Differential: Ferreira has a higher recent significant striking impact differential, increasing the prediction score by 2.
  • Significant Striking Impact Differential: Ferreira's overall significant striking impact differential is higher, increasing the score by 1.
  • Recent Striking Impact Differential: Ferreira's recent striking impact differential is superior, adding 1 to the prediction score.
  • Reach: Stoltzfus's longer reach decreased the prediction score by 1, suggesting it could be an advantage for him.

Past Model Performance

The model has been incorrect in predicting Ferreira's last fight against Phil Hawes, where Ferreira won by KO despite the model favoring Hawes. This could indicate a potential risk in the current prediction.

For Stoltzfus, the model incorrectly predicted his last two fights, favoring his opponents Punahele Soriano and Dwight Grant. Stoltzfus won both fights, suggesting the model might be underestimating his abilities.


While the model predicts Brunno Ferreira to win with a confidence score of 15, there are some factors to consider. Ferreira's knockout power and striking defense are significant advantages, but Dustin Stoltzfus's grappling skills, reach, and height advantage could pose problems. The classic striker vs. grappler dynamic adds intrigue to the matchup, with both fighters having clear paths to victory. The model's past performance in predicting both fighters' outcomes suggests some uncertainty in the prediction. Overall, Ferreira is the favorite, but Stoltzfus has the tools to make it a competitive and exciting fight.

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Analysis: Julian Marquez vs Zach Reese

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Julian Marquez to Win

Score: 6 Odds: Julian Marquez: -148 Zach Reese: 116

Julian Marquez's Breakdown

Julian "The Cuban Missile Crisis" Marquez is a powerful striker and dangerous submission artist known for his jiu-jitsu skills. The 34-year-old has a professional record of 9-4-0 and stands at 6'2" with a 72" reach.

Marquez has finished 3 of his 6 UFC wins by submission, including two rear-naked chokes and an anaconda choke. His striking is aggressive, landing 4.88 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.34 per minute. He has a balanced record of wins by KO/TKO and submissions, with no wins by decision, showcasing his ability to finish fights.

However, Marquez has been knocked out in his last two fights against Gregory Rodrigues and Marc-Andre Barriault. This raises significant concerns about his durability and ability to absorb shots, especially considering his age.

On the positive side, Marquez has shown an ability to come back from adversity, like when he submitted Maki Pitolo with an anaconda choke after being hurt early. His grappling remains a huge threat.

Zach Reese's Breakdown

Zach "Savage" Reese is a relatively new face in the UFC with a professional record of 6-1-0. The 30-year-old stands at an imposing 6'4" with a 77" reach, giving him a significant height and reach advantage over Marquez.

Reese is a versatile fighter with a mix of striking and submission skills. He has shown powerful striking, with four wins by KO/TKO, and an ability to finish fights early, with all his wins coming in the first round.

However, Reese is largely unproven at the UFC level, with only one fight on his record - a KO loss to Cody Brundage in December 2023. In that debut, Reese landed 2.2 significant strikes per minute while absorbing a concerning 7.7 per minute. His striking defense was only 25%. But this is a tiny sample size of just one fight.

Reese's submission game looks promising, averaging over 8 submission attempts per fight in his career. But it remains to be seen how that translates against UFC-level competition.

Analysis and Key Points

A few key factors to consider:

  • Marquez's chin is a huge question mark after two straight KO losses. Can he avoid Reese's power?
  • Reese's reach and striking power could pose a significant threat. His 5-inch reach advantage and ability to finish fights early could be a problem for Marquez.
  • Marquez has a major edge in UFC experience with 6 fights. Ring time matters, and he's faced tougher competition.
  • Both have shown dangerous submission skills. This could come down to who can dominate the grappling. Marquez's jiu-jitsu background could be key.

Understanding the Prediction

A few insights into why the model favors Marquez:

  • Odds: The betting odds significantly favor Marquez at -148 compared to +116 for Reese. The model sees this as a strong signal.
  • Striking Defense: Marquez has the edge here, with a 47% striking defense compared to just 25% for Reese in his debut.
  • Recent Striking: Marquez lands 4.01 significant strikes per minute in his last 4 fights, vs just 2.20 for Reese in his only fight.
  • Reach: Interestingly, despite having a 5-inch reach advantage, the model actually scores this in Marquez's favor.

However, a few factors do favor Reese, even if the model ultimately picks against him:

  • Recent Win Percentage: Reese has won 86% of his last 7 fights, compared to just 33% for Marquez in his last 3.
  • Output Stats: Reese had a negative strike differential and striking output in his debut. The model sees this as a slight positive for him.

Past Model Performance

This prediction comes with a good deal of uncertainty:

  • The model has only seen Reese fight once, and he lost that fight by KO. Betting on him here is putting a lot of faith in a small sample size.

  • While the model has gotten its last two picks right on Marquez (predicting his losses to Rodrigues and Barriault), those were both as an underdog. Marquez is now favored, which is a different scenario.


Marquez seems to have the edge in experience, grappling, and overall UFC track record. The model sees him as a solid favorite.

However, his recent knockout losses are very concerning, especially against a larger, younger opponent in Reese who has real knockout power. And with so little data on Reese, there's a lot of uncertainty about how he'll perform.

If Marquez can weather Reese's early storm, his jiu-jitsu could be the difference. But if Reese can keep the fight standing and land his strikes, he has a real chance at the upset.

The pick is Marquez, but don't be surprised if Reese rises to the occasion and scores a shocking KO. Bet with caution in this one - there are big questions on both sides.

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Analysis: Miguel Baeza vs Punahele Soriano

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Miguel Baeza to Win

Score: 7 Odds: Miguel Baeza: -195 Punahele Soriano: 160

Miguel Baeza's Breakdown

Miguel Baeza is a fierce welterweight contender known for his striking prowess and highlight reel finishes. Despite coming off three consecutive losses, Baeza's skills make him a dangerous matchup for anyone in the division.

In his UFC debut against Hector Aldana, Baeza showcased his precise striking, landing a devastating head kick in round two that sent Aldana crashing to the canvas. Baeza followed up with punches for the TKO victory, announcing his arrival to the UFC in spectacular fashion.

Against Matt Brown, Baeza utilized his reach advantage and crisp boxing to keep the veteran at bay. In the second round, Baeza rocked Brown with a left hook and swarmed with strikes, securing another impressive TKO win.

Even in defeat, Baeza has shown heart and determination. In his battle with Santiago Ponzinibbio, Baeza stood toe-to-toe with the Argentine for three hard-fought rounds. Though he ultimately lost a unanimous decision, Baeza proved he belongs among the welterweight elite.

Baeza's path to victory lies in his ability to utilize his superior footwork and movement to control the range and dictate the terms of engagement. His sharp boxing combinations and body attack could prove pivotal in breaking down the durable Soriano over the course of the fight. Baeza's cardio and output have been his strengths, allowing him to maintain a high pace and overwhelm opponents with a barrage of strikes.

Punahele Soriano's Breakdown

Punahele Soriano is a heavy-handed middleweight prospect with serious knockout power. Despite a recent rough patch, Soriano's explosive striking makes him a threat to anyone he faces.

In his UFC debut against Oskar Piechota, Soriano needed just one round to make a statement. He dropped Piechota with a blistering combination, pouncing with follow-up shots for the TKO finish.

Soriano's power was on full display again when he faced Dusko Todorovic. In the first round, Soriano connected with a massive overhand left that sent Todorovic crashing to the canvas unconscious. It was a stunning knockout that showed the Hawaiian's fight-ending ability.

However, Soriano has struggled against high-level grapplers. In his most recent bout against Dustin Stoltzfus, Soriano was repeatedly taken down and controlled on the mat. Stoltzfus secured a rear-naked choke in round two, handing Soriano his fourth loss in five fights.

Soriano possesses formidable knockout power in both hands, making him a constant threat to end the fight with a single shot. His aggressive style and willingness to exchange could create opportunities for him to land that fight-ending blow. However, Soriano will need to be wary of Baeza's counterpunching and avoid getting drawn into a prolonged striking battle where he could be outworked.

Analysis and Key Points

  • Striking Matchup: Both Baeza and Soriano are skilled strikers, but Baeza likely has the edge in technique and output. Look for him to utilize his reach and precise boxing to keep Soriano at range.
  • Grappling Question Mark: Neither fighter is known for their grappling, but Soriano's recent submission loss raises concerns. If Baeza can take Soriano down, he may find a path to victory on the mat.
  • Power vs Precision: Soriano's knockout power is undeniable, but Baeza's technical striking could be the perfect foil. Baeza will need to avoid Soriano's heavy shots while picking him apart from the outside.
  • Clash of Styles: This fight promises an exciting clash of styles. Baeza, known for his technical striking and relentless pressure, will look to impose his pace and volume against the powerful and aggressive Soriano.

Understanding the Prediction

  • Odds: The odds heavily favor Baeza at -195, increasing the model's prediction score by a significant 7 points. The betting market clearly sees Baeza as the superior fighter, with some bookmakers listing him as high as a -165 favorite, while Soriano is the underdog at around +156.
  • Striking Defense Percentage: Baeza's striking defense percentage of 57% is significantly better than Soriano's 45%, increasing the prediction score by 2 points. Baeza's defensive skills could be key in avoiding Soriano's power shots.
  • Striking Output Differentials: Baeza has the edge in significant striking output differential and impact differential, each increasing the score by 1 point. Expect Baeza to be the more active and effective striker.

Past Model Performance

The model predicted Baeza to win his last fight against Andre Fialho, but was incorrect as Baeza suffered a first round KO loss. This suggests the model may be overestimating Baeza's current form.

For Soriano, the model has predicted him to win his last four fights, but has only been correct once. Most concerning is that Soriano lost two of those fights by stoppage. The model's struggles to predict Soriano's fights make this prediction a bit less reliable.


While the model favors Miguel Baeza, his recent losing streak and the model's mixed record in predicting these fighters inject some uncertainty into the pick.

Baeza's technical striking, reach advantage, and ability to dictate the pace should serve him well, but Soriano's knockout power means he's always dangerous. If Baeza can utilize his jab, avoid Soriano's heavy shots, and mix in some takedowns, he has a great chance of getting back in the win column. But if Soriano lands clean, it could be lights out.

Expect a high-paced and action-packed fight, with Baeza potentially emerging victorious via decision or late stoppage if he can weather Soriano's early storm. However, this fight feels closer than the odds and prediction score indicate. Though Baeza is rightly favored, an upset would not be shocking. Approach betting on this fight with caution.

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Analysis: Thiago Moises vs Ludovit Klein

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Ludovit Klein to Win

Score: 11 Odds: Thiago Moises: 105 Ludovit Klein: -125

Thiago Moises's Breakdown

Thiago Moises, a 29-year-old Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialist, will look to impose his grappling prowess in this matchup. His ability to drag the fight to the mat and capitalize on scrambles could prove pivotal against Klein. Moises is coming off an impressive KO/TKO win over Mitch Ramirez in March, showcasing his striking power. However, he suffered a brutal KO/TKO loss to Benoit Saint Denis in September 2023, snapping a two-fight winning streak.

Moises is a well-rounded fighter with solid takedowns, averaging 1.69 per fight in his UFC career. He also has a dangerous submission game, notching 1.35 subs per fight. On the feet, Moises absorbs more strikes than he lands, with a striking defense percentage of just 46.7%. He'll need to shore up his striking defense and be wary of Klein's takedown defense and explosiveness in the striking exchanges.

Ludovit Klein's Breakdown

Ludovit Klein, also 29, is a Slovakian striker who will aim to keep the fight standing and utilize his sharp kickboxing skills. He possesses a distinct advantage on the feet, with his technical striking, highlighted by his deadly kicks, that could pose significant problems for Moises if the fight remains standing.

Klein is riding a four-fight winning streak, most recently earning a KO/TKO victory over AJ Cunningham in March. He is a powerful and technical striker, racking up 0.48 knockdowns per fight in the UFC. Klein lands 3.96 significant strikes per minute while absorbing just 3.42. His defensive wrestling and ability to stuff initial takedown attempts will be crucial in neutralizing Moises' grappling threats. However, Klein's takedown defense is a concern, successfully defending only 20% of takedowns attempted on him.

Analysis and Key Points

  • Clash of styles: Moises will look to impose his grappling, while Klein will aim to keep the fight standing.
  • Klein has a significant striking advantage on the feet, landing more volume with higher accuracy than Moises.
  • Moises will need to get this to the ground to win, with his path to victory being taking Klein down and hunting for a submission.
  • Klein's takedown defense is a liability. If he can't stuff Moises' takedowns, he'll be fighting off his back, which is not his strength.
  • Moises is hittable on the feet, absorbing 3.79 significant strikes per minute. He can't afford to stand and trade with Klein for long.

Understanding the Prediction

  • Odds: The betting odds significantly favor Klein, which aligns with the model's prediction and increased its score by 2 points.
  • Recent Significant Striking Impact Differential: Klein lands 0.33 fewer significant strikes per minute than he absorbs recently, while Moises absorbs 23.85 more than he lands. This discrepancy in striking favors Klein and decreased the model score for Moises by 2 points.
  • Striking Defense Percentage: Moises has a slightly better striking defense percentage of 46.7% compared to Klein's 44.4%. This favors Moises and increased the model's score slightly by 1 point.

Past Model Performance

The model has struggled in predicting Klein's fights, going 0-4 in the last four bouts where it favored his opponent each time. This suggests that Klein has been underrated by the model historically. For Moises, the model has fared better, correctly predicting his last two fights and going 2-0.

Given Klein's improvement and the model's past challenges predicting his fights accurately, there is some risk that Klein is being underrated again here despite being the predicted winner.


Ludovit Klein is a clear favorite in this matchup and should get his hand raised if he can keep the fight standing. His striking is faster, more powerful, and more technically sound than Moises'. While Moises may have the edge in pure grappling, Klein's well-rounded skillset and defensive capabilities could make it challenging for the Brazilian to consistently impose his game plan.

However, Moises has a clear path to victory by taking Klein down and attacking submissions. Klein's historically poor takedown defense means Moises will likely be able to drag him to the mat at some point. The question is whether Moises can capitalize with a submission or if Klein can survive and punish him on the feet.

According to betting odds, Klein is currently a slight favorite at -135, while Moises is the underdog at +115. Predictions from the Tapology community are split, with 67% favoring Klein and 33% siding with Moises. While Klein is the rightful favorite, his low takedown defense and the model's past struggles to assess him accurately means there is some risk to the prediction. This intriguing clash of styles may be closer than the odds suggest, with both fighters possessing the skills to emerge victorious.

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Analysis: Charles Radtke vs Carlos Prates

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Charles Radtke to Win

Score: 10 Odds: Charles Radtke: +165 Carlos Prates: -200

Tale of the Tape

Charles "Buffalo" Radtke, a 33-year-old fighter from Salem Lakes, Wisconsin, enters with a record of 9-3. He's 5'9" with a 72-inch reach, representing MMA MASTERS gym.

Carlos "The Nightmare" Prates, a 30-year-old Brazilian from Taubaté, Sao Paulo, has an 18-6 record. At 6'1" with a 78-inch reach, he has significant physical advantages. Prates represents Vale Top Team.

Charles Radtke's Breakdown

Radtke is coming off an impressive knockout over Gilbert Urbina in February 2024, showcasing his power. Before that, he earned a unanimous decision over Blood Diamond in September 2023.

Despite incorrectly picking against Radtke vs Urbina, WolfTicketsAI now favors him against Prates. Radtke's strong takedown defense (100% in the UFC) and striking defense (47.7%) are assets. He lands 3.29 significant strikes per minute at 52.9% accuracy.

Radtke's grappling pedigree from MMA MASTERS could be key to neutralizing Prates' length if he can close distance and wrestle. However, at 33 years old, Radtke may struggle with Prates' pace over three rounds.

Carlos Prates's Breakdown

Prates scored a knockout in his UFC debut over Trevin Giles in February 2024, immediately making a welterweight impact. The Tapology community predicts a 79% chance of Prates winning, most likely by decision.

However, there are concerns in Prates' stats. He absorbs 7.52 significant strikes per minute while landing only 4.09, a -30 differential. His striking defense is just 33.3%.

Prates does have power though, averaging 1.66 knockdowns per fight in his career. His height and reach could trouble Radtke on the feet, but also leave him open to takedowns.

Analysis and Key Points

  • Radtke's takedown defense is a strength. He's yet to be taken down in the UFC. With Prates' low takedown attempt rate, this likely stays standing.

  • Prates' striking defense is a concern, absorbing over 7 significant strikes per minute. Dangerous against a power puncher like Radtke.

  • Radtke has more UFC experience, with two wins compared to one for Prates. More octagon time matters.

  • Prates' length is an x-factor. It could trouble Radtke on the feet but also leave him vulnerable to Radtke's wrestling.

Understanding the Prediction

  • Significant Striking Impact Differential heavily favors Radtke and was the top factor increasing the model's score. Radtke's +2.5 differential far exceeds Prates' -31.

  • Striking Defense Percentage also favors Radtke (47.7% vs 33.3%) and helped boost the prediction score.

  • Recent Takedowns Attempted increased the score for Radtke, likely because Prates has yet to try a takedown in the UFC. This points to a striking battle favoring Radtke.

  • The betting odds favoring Prates did lower the score, but not enough to override the statistical factors in Radtke's favor.

Past Model Performance

The model has only one past prediction for these fighters - incorrectly picking Urbina over Radtke, who won by KO. There is no prediction history yet for Prates.

While the model is very confident in Radtke here, the limited prediction data does add some uncertainty. Radtke seems to have the right stylistic advantages, but the odds are not providing amazing value.


WolfTicketsAI predicts Charles Radtke to defeat Carlos Prates, which seems reasonable based on the matchup. Radtke's striking and takedown defense are strong edges over Prates.

However, there are some warning signs - the limited data on Prates in the UFC and the model's wrong pick against Radtke last time. Prates being a solid -200 favorite is also noteworthy.

Ultimately, Radtke should be favored and is the pick to win, but given the uncertainties, there isn't great betting value at these odds. This fight is ideal to watch and learn more about these rising welterweights.

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Analysis: Brad Katona vs Jesse Butler

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Brad Katona to Win

Score: 28 Odds: Brad Katona: -600 Jesse Butler: 425

Brad Katona's Breakdown

Brad Katona is a well-rounded fighter with a strong grappling base, having won The Ultimate Fighter reality show at both bantamweight and featherweight. He is now dropping down two weight classes to 135 lbs for this fight, which is a significant cut for the 32-year-old Canadian. Katona averages 1.5 takedowns per fight and attempts 5.5 takedowns per fight, showcasing his wrestling prowess. He also has solid striking, landing 4.71 significant strikes per minute with a 49.8% accuracy.

In his most recent fight against Cody Gibson, Katona utilized his wrestling effectively, securing multiple takedowns and controlling the fight on the ground to earn a unanimous decision victory. Prior to that, he suffered back-to-back losses to Hunter Azure and Merab Dvalishvili, both by unanimous decision. In those fights, Katona struggled to implement his grappling game and was outstruck by his opponents.

Katona's striking defense is an area of concern, as he absorbs 3.57 head strikes per minute and has a striking defense percentage of just 39.2%. This vulnerability could be exploited by a skilled striker. Additionally, the massive weight cut to bantamweight raises questions about his cardio and durability at this weight class.

Jesse Butler's Breakdown

Jesse Butler is making his UFC debut after competing primarily on the regional circuit. At 29 years old, he's slightly younger than Katona and has a 2.61 significant strikes landed per minute rate. Butler's height of 73 inches gives him a sizeable reach advantage over the 5'8" Katona.

In his lone UFC fight, Butler lost by KO/TKO to Jim Miller. He was outstruck, absorbing 7.83 head strikes per minute while only landing 2.61 significant strikes per minute with a low 14.3% accuracy. Butler's striking defense appears to be a weakness, as he absorbed a high volume of strikes in his debut. He did not attempt any takedowns in his lone UFC fight, so his grappling abilities remain largely unknown.

Analysis and Key Points

  • Grappling advantage: Brad Katona's strong wrestling background, high takedown rate, and jiu-jitsu skills could be key factors in this fight, especially considering Jesse Butler's lack of UFC-level grappling experience. Katona will likely look to take the fight to the mat where he can use his top control and submissions.
  • Striking concerns: Both fighters have shown vulnerabilities in their striking defense, with Katona absorbing a high volume of head strikes and Butler being finished by strikes in his debut. Butler's length and striking volume could pose problems for the shorter Katona if the fight stays standing.
  • Experience gap: Katona has significantly more UFC experience than Butler, having fought six times in the promotion compared to Butler's single appearance. Katona's experience on The Ultimate Fighter could also give him an edge.
  • Weight cut impact: Katona's drop to bantamweight is a significant cut that raises questions about his cardio and durability at this weight class. This could be a factor if the fight goes into the later rounds.

Understanding the Prediction

  • Odds: The odds heavily favor Brad Katona at -600, which significantly increased the model's prediction score by 26 points. However, some analysts caution against blindly fading recent TUF competitors like Katona.
  • Recent takedowns attempted per fight: Katona's high rate of takedown attempts (4.85 per fight) increased the prediction score by 3 points, suggesting his grappling could be a key advantage.
  • Striking defense percentage: Katona's striking defense percentage of 39.2% is higher than Butler's 40%, increasing the prediction score by 2 points.
  • Reach: Jesse Butler's 9-inch reach advantage slightly decreased the prediction score by 2 points, but this may not be enough to overcome Katona's other advantages. However, Butler's length could be a factor if he can keep the fight at range.

Past Model Performance

The model has made two previous predictions for Brad Katona, correctly predicting his win against Cody Gibson but incorrectly predicting a win against Garrett Armfield. There are no past predictions for Jesse Butler due to his limited UFC experience.

The incorrect prediction for Katona's most recent fight suggests some uncertainty in the model's assessment of his current form. However, the model's accuracy in predicting his win against Gibson lends some credibility to its current prediction.


Based on the analysis, Brad Katona appears to have the edge in this fight due to his grappling prowess, greater UFC experience, and success on The Ultimate Fighter. While both fighters have shown vulnerabilities in their striking defense, Katona's ability to secure takedowns and control the fight on the ground could be the deciding factor.

However, the model's recent incorrect prediction for Katona and the lack of past predictions for Butler introduce some uncertainty. Additionally, Butler's significant reach advantage and striking volume could come into play if he can keep the fight standing and outwork Katona over three rounds.

The impact of Katona's weight cut to bantamweight is another factor to consider, as it could affect his cardio and durability in the later rounds.

Overall, the model's prediction of a Katona victory seems reasonable, but the fight may be closer than the odds suggest if Butler can effectively utilize his reach, maintain distance, and defend against Katona's takedowns. The bookmakers have Katona as a sizeable -625 favorite, but some analysts caution against blindly fading recent TUF competitors like him.

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Analysis: Andrea Lee vs Montana De La Rosa

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Andrea Lee to Win

Score: 15 Odds: Andrea Lee: -150 Montana De La Rosa: 125

Andrea Lee's Breakdown

Andrea Lee is a well-rounded fighter with a strong striking game and solid takedown defense. In her last fight against Cynthia Calvillo, she showcased her powerful striking, landing a vicious head kick that led to a KO/TKO victory in the second round. Lee's striking defense percentage of 54.64% and significant striking defense percentage of 62.73% are both higher than De La Rosa's, indicating she is better at avoiding damage on the feet.

However, Lee has struggled in some of her recent fights, losing 3 out of her last 5. She tends to have trouble against opponents with strong grappling skills, as seen in her unanimous decision losses to Roxanne Modafferi and Viviane Araujo. Lee will need to use her 80.65% takedown defense to keep this fight standing where she has the advantage.

Montana De La Rosa's Breakdown

Montana De La Rosa is a submission specialist with 8 of her 12 wins coming by way of submission. She averages 0.7999 submissions per fight and has a dangerous ground game. In her last win against Ariane da Silva, De La Rosa secured a rear-naked choke in the second round to get the finish.

On the feet, De La Rosa tends to absorb more strikes than she lands. Her striking defense percentage of 36.47% and significant striking defense percentage of 44.16% are both lower than Lee's. She does have a slight reach advantage at 68" compared to Lee's 69", but that likely won't be enough to overcome the striking discrepancy.

De La Rosa's path to victory is to get this fight to the ground where she can hunt for submissions. She averages 5.4850 takedown attempts per fight, so expect her to shoot early and often. If she can drag Lee into her world, she has a good chance of securing a submission victory.

Previous Fight Breakdown

These two fighters previously met in 2019, with Andrea Lee winning by unanimous decision. In that fight, Lee was able to stuff all 7 of De La Rosa's takedown attempts and keep the fight standing. She outlanded De La Rosa in significant strikes 78 to 34 en route to a clear-cut victory on the scorecards.

Significance of the Rematch

Despite their recent struggles, this rematch holds significant importance for both fighters. A victory could potentially revitalize their UFC careers and provide a much-needed boost in confidence. However, a loss could further jeopardize their standing within the promotion, given their recent lackluster performances.

Stylistic Matchup

In their first encounter, Lee's superior striking and movement proved to be the difference, as she outpointed De La Rosa over three rounds. De La Rosa will likely look to implement her grappling-heavy approach to neutralize Lee's striking advantage. On the other hand, Lee will aim to keep the fight standing and utilize her footwork and range to outmaneuver her opponent.

Analysis and Key Points

  • Striking Advantage: Andrea Lee has the clear advantage in the striking department. She lands 4.69 significant strikes per minute compared to just 2.70 for De La Rosa.
  • Grappling Advantage: Montana De La Rosa has the grappling advantage with her submission skills. If she can get Lee to the mat, she has a good chance of ending the fight.
  • Previous Fight: In their first meeting, Lee was able to completely nullify De La Rosa's grappling and dominate on the feet. De La Rosa will need to make major adjustments to avoid a similar outcome here.

Understanding the Prediction

  • Odds: The odds favor Andrea Lee at -150, and this was the biggest factor increasing the model's score by 6 points.
  • Significant Striking Impact Differential: Lee has a much higher significant striking impact differential at 13.17 compared to -6.09 for De La Rosa. This increased the model score by 4 points.
  • Recent Win Percentage: Neither fighter has won any of their last 5 fights, but overall Lee has the higher win percentage at 59.09% compared to 57.14% for De La Rosa. This moved the prediction score up by 3 points.
  • Striking Defense: Lee is much better defensively on the feet with a striking defense percentage of 54.64% and significant striking defense of 62.73%. De La Rosa's striking defense is just 36.47% and significant striking defense of 44.16%. This increased the score for Lee by a combined 6 points.

Past Model Performance

The model has struggled with predictions for both fighters recently:

  • For Andrea Lee, the model is just 1 for 4 in her last 4 fights. It correctly predicted her to lose to Maverick and Silva but incorrectly had her beating Barber and Araujo.

  • For Montana De La Rosa, the model has been wrong in her last 3 fights. It predicted her to beat Aldrich and Barber but she lost both fights. The model did correctly predict her to lose to Suarez.

With the model's shaky recent performance, this prediction comes with some uncertainty. However, given the historic data between these two fighters and Lee's overall advantages, there is reason to believe the model has this one right despite the recent misfires.


The rematch between Andrea Lee and Montana De La Rosa promises to be an exciting and pivotal contest for both fighters. With their UFC careers potentially hanging in the balance, expect an intense and hard-fought battle as they seek to secure a much-needed victory.

In their first clash, Lee's striking and takedown defense were the keys to victory. De La Rosa will need to find a way to bring the fight to the mat and utilize her grappling if she hopes to even the score. But if Lee can maintain distance and stuff the takedowns as she did in 2019, she has a great chance of emerging victorious once again.

While both fighters are in the midst of losing streaks, the model believes Lee's striking advantage will be too much for De La Rosa to overcome. Look for "KGB" to keep it standing and outpoint her opponent on the feet to get back in the win column. The prediction comes with some hesitation given the model's recent struggles, but the historic matchup data points to another Andrea Lee victory.

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Analysis: John Castaneda vs Daniel Marcos

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Daniel Marcos to Win

Score: 0.0 Odds: John Castaneda: +100 Daniel Marcos: -120

John Castaneda's Breakdown

Castaneda, known as the "Sexi Mexi," is a well-rounded fighter with a strong striking game and a solid ground game. His ability to mix up his attacks and keep opponents guessing has been key to his success.

Castaneda's win over Miles Johns in February 2022 aged well and solidified his position in the bantamweight division. He averages nearly 2 takedowns per fight in the UFC and lands them at a 41% accuracy. On the feet, he has solid striking output, landing 5.12 significant strikes per minute.

However, Castaneda's striking defense is a weakness, absorbing more significant strikes than he lands (-6.17 differential). This defensive gap was exploited in his KO loss to Daniel Santos in October 2022.

Castaneda is coming off two decision wins over Kyung Ho Kang and Muin Gafurov. The model correctly predicted his win over Kang, but was wrong in favoring him over Santos previously.

Daniel Marcos's Breakdown

Marcos is a seasoned veteran with an impressive 15-0 record (1 NC). Known for his aggressive approach and relentless pressure, he pushes a grueling pace that makes him a constant threat.

In the UFC, Marcos has shown impressive striking and defensive grappling. On the feet, he lands 5.92 significant strikes per minute while absorbing only 4.45, a +14.67 differential. His 64% striking defense is very solid. In his most recent win over Saimon Oliveira, Marcos scored a highlight reel KO.

Defensively, Marcos has yet to be taken down in the UFC, stuffing all 6 attempts. This takedown defense could be key against a wrestler like Castaneda.

The model has correctly predicted both of Marcos' UFC wins so far against Grant and Oliveira.

Analysis and Key Points

  • Contrasting styles: Castaneda's well-rounded skills and crafty striking meet Marcos' aggressive pressure and grit. It will be a battle of who can impose their style.

  • Marcos' striking advantage: Marcos lands more significant strikes than Castaneda and absorbs far fewer, both in total and on a per-minute basis. Striking could be the key to victory for the undefeated prospect.

  • Castaneda's path to victory through grappling: Averaging nearly 2 takedowns per fight, Castaneda will likely need to rely on his wrestling to win. However, Marcos has yet to be taken down in the UFC.

  • Momentum with Marcos: Marcos is undefeated and coming off a KO win. Castaneda had a KO loss in 2022 and has gone the distance in his other recent bouts.

Understanding the Prediction

  • Odds: The betting odds favor Marcos, which aligns with and boosts the model's prediction.

  • Significant Striking: Marcos has sizable advantages in both offensive and defensive significant striking, landing more and absorbing fewer than Castaneda both overall and in recent fights.

  • Recent Form: Marcos has a higher recent win percentage. Castaneda's KO loss in 2022 is a red flag.

  • Grappling: While Castaneda attempts more takedowns, Marcos' takedown defense is perfect so far in the UFC.

Past Model Performance

  • For Castaneda, the model has gone 2-1, correctly favoring him over Kang and Johns but wrongly picking him over Santos.

  • The model is 2-0 on Marcos, correctly predicting both his UFC wins so far over Grant and Oliveira.

  • The model has performed slightly better overall on Marcos, but the sample size is small.


The undefeated Daniel Marcos looks well equipped to keep his streak going against the crafty veteran John Castaneda. With advantages in striking and takedown defense, Marcos has paths to victory on the feet and in grappling exchanges.

Castaneda's clearest route to an upset would be through wrestling, but that's a tall order against an opponent who has yet to be taken down in the UFC. Marcos' momentum, betting odds, and superior striking numbers align with the model's prediction in this clash of bantamweight contenders.

Regardless of the result, this matchup promises to be an action-packed affair that will test both fighters and have implications for their careers in the stacked 135-pound division. Fans can expect a high-paced battle as two skilled competitors look to make a statement on June 8th.

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Analysis: Eduarda Moura vs Denise Gomes

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Eduarda Moura to Win

Score: 20 Odds: Eduarda Moura: -170 Denise Gomes: 140

Eduarda Moura's Breakdown

Eduarda Moura is an undefeated prospect with a perfect 10-0 record. In her UFC debut, she scored an impressive KO/TKO victory over Montserrat Conejo Ruiz, showcasing her striking power. Moura lands a high volume of strikes at 14.1 per minute with excellent accuracy of 73.4%. She is particularly effective with head strikes, landing 7.6 per minute while absorbing none in return.

Moura is a well-rounded mixed martial artist with a solid striking base. She possesses a diverse arsenal of strikes, including powerful kicks and sharp boxing combinations. Moura is also a capable grappler, averaging 6.22 takedowns per fight with 100% accuracy and defense. Once on the ground, she maintains control and lands ground strikes. Her overall striking and grappling stats are far superior to Gomes across the board.

Denise Gomes's Breakdown

Denise Gomes is 8-3 in her MMA career and 2-2 in the UFC. She is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Angela Hill in her last fight. Prior to that, Gomes scored back-to-back KO/TKO wins over Yazmin Jauregui and Bruna Brasil, showing she has finishing power.

Gomes is primarily a striker who relies on her toughness and relentless pressure. She is known for her ability to take punishment and keep moving forward, making her a formidable opponent in grueling battles of attrition. Gomes also has a solid grappling game, which she can utilize to complement her striking.

However, Gomes lands only 7.13 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.61 in return, giving her a negative strike differential. Her striking defense is just 29.2%. She does mix in takedowns at 1.58 per fight, but only has 33% accuracy. Gomes will need to leverage her durability, pressure, and power striking to overcome Moura's technical advantages.

Analysis and Key Points

  • Moura is undefeated with a perfect 10-0 record, while Gomes is 8-3 and coming off a loss
  • Moura's striking volume, accuracy, and technique far exceed Gomes's stats on both offense and defense
  • Moura has excellent takedowns and grappling control, while Gomes has lower takedown accuracy
  • Gomes's toughness, relentless pressure, and KO power in her last 2 wins could be her path to victory
  • There is limited UFC data on both fighters, adding some uncertainty to the matchup

Understanding the Prediction

The model favors Moura to win this fight based on several key factors:

  • Significant Striking Impact Differential: Moura's differential of 52 is vastly higher than Gomes's 3.25, meaning Moura lands much more powerful strikes
  • Striking Defense Percentage: Moura defends 69% of strikes compared to just 29.2% for Gomes
  • Odds: The betting odds of -170 for Moura and +140 for Gomes align with the model's prediction
  • Recent Significant Striking Impact Differential: Even in just recent fights, Moura's differential remains much higher at 52 vs 6.33 for Gomes
  • TrueSkill: Moura's TrueSkill rating of 25 is higher than Gomes's 23.32

The consensus among analysts also seems to be that Moura holds a slight edge due to her well-rounded skillset and technical striking. However, Gomes' durability and tenacity cannot be overlooked, as she has the potential to make it a closely contested battle.

Past Model Performance

This is the first time the model has predicted a fight for Eduarda Moura, so there is no past performance to assess for her.

For Denise Gomes, the model has a mixed track record: - It correctly predicted her loss to Angela Hill with 73% confidence - But it incorrectly predicted her to lose to Yazmin Jauregui with 74% confidence (Gomes won by KO)

So while the model has insights on Gomes's fights, it is not perfect. The limited prediction history adds some risk to the current pick.


WolfTicketsAI predicts Eduarda Moura will defeat Denise Gomes based on her undefeated record, well-rounded skills, superior striking technique and grappling stats. Moura's striking accuracy, defense, and power align with the model's key predictive features and give her clear paths to victory.

However, Gomes's toughness, relentless pressure, and recent KO wins show she can make this a grueling battle and potentially land fight-changing power shots. The all-Brazilian clash promises to be an exciting, closely contested affair with both fighters leaving it all in the Octagon.

While Moura deserves to be favored based on technical advantages, Gomes' grit and power mean she cannot be counted out. The limited UFC sample size for both fighters also leaves some uncertainty around the matchup.

In the end, fans can expect a high-paced, action-packed strawweight fight between two talented and aggressive competitors looking to climb the ranks. Moura is the pick to get her hand raised, but Gomes will not go quietly into the night.

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Analysis: Cody Stamann vs Taylor Lapilus

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Taylor Lapilus to Win

Score: 8.0 Odds: Cody Stamann: 210 Taylor Lapilus: -260

Cody Stamann's Breakdown

Cody Stamann is a tough, gritty bantamweight with a wrestling-heavy style. He averages 2.34 takedowns per fight at a 40% success rate. On the feet, he lands 4.39 significant strikes per minute but also absorbs 4.10, indicating he's willing to take a shot to land one.

Stamann's strength lies in his ability to close distance, secure takedowns, and control opponents with top pressure and submission threats. Despite coming off a loss, the experienced grappler will look to remind everyone of his dangerous skills in this bout.

Some concerns for Stamann are that he's lost 3 of his last 5 fights, including being submitted by Said Nurmagomedov and losing a decision to Douglas Silva de Andrade in his most recent bout. At age 32, there are questions about whether his best days are behind him.

Taylor Lapilus' Breakdown

Taylor Lapilus is a well-rounded fighter with solid striking and grappling. He lands 3.91 significant strikes per minute at a 47% accuracy rate, while defending 61% of his opponents' attempts. He's also a threat with submissions, securing 0.37 per fight.

Lapilus' game is built around his technical boxing and kicking arsenal. With a massive 9-inch reach advantage, the French fighter will aim to keep the fight standing and use his movement and diverse striking to neutralize Stamann's wrestling.

Lapilus is coming off a decision loss to top prospect Farid Basharat, which snapped a two-fight win streak. At 30 years old, he appears to be in his prime. A win over a known name like Stamann could propel him into the rankings.

Analysis and Key Points

  • This shapes up as a classic grappler vs striker matchup pitting Stamann's wrestling against Lapilus' technical striking
  • Lapilus has a massive 9-inch reach advantage which should allow him to strike from the outside
  • Stamann usually needs to close distance and rely on his wrestling, but Lapilus defends takedowns at a solid 72% rate
  • Lapilus is the younger fighter and appears to be hitting his prime, while there are questions about Stamann's recent performances
  • The betting odds heavily favor Lapilus, seeing him as a -260 favorite (implied 72% win probability)

Understanding the Prediction

The WolfTicketsAI model predicts a Lapilus victory with a confidence score of 8. Here are some key insights from the feature importance data:

  • Odds: The betting odds shifted the model's prediction heavily in favor of Lapilus by 10 points
  • Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight: Stamann's wrestling actually increased the prediction score for Lapilus by 6 points, perhaps because Lapilus has solid takedown defense
  • Reach: Lapilus' 9-inch reach advantage decreased the score for Stamann by 3 points
  • Recent Win Percentage: Lapilus' 67% win rate in his last 3 fights increased his score by 3 points

Other factors like striking metrics slightly favored Lapilus but were less impactful overall compared to the odds, wrestling threat, and win percentage.

Past Model Performance

The WolfTickets model has some track record with these fighters:

  • It correctly predicted Stamann would lose to Said Nurmagomedov in 2022 with modest confidence
  • It correctly predicted Stamann would beat Eddie Wineland in 2022, but only gave him a small edge
  • In Lapilus' most recent fight, it heavily favored Basharat to win and was proven correct

So the algorithm has been on the right side of these fighters' recent bouts, but not with a large sample size to assess its accuracy.


WolfTickets predicts a victory for Taylor Lapilus with reasonably high confidence. The betting odds, Lapilus' striking prowess and range management, statistical advantages in reach and defense, and his strong recent win percentage all point to the Frenchman getting his hand raised.

However, Cody Stamann's relentless wrestling and grappling could still make this competitive if he's able to drag Lapilus into deep waters and dominate positions. And with a limited track record of predicting these specific fighters, one can't be certain how prescient the algorithm will ultimately prove.

In the end, it's a stylistic chess match where Lapilus' length, striking technique and relative youth are pitted against Stamann's veteran toughness and dangerous ground game. Both possess fight-changing skills in their respective domains, setting the stage for a pivotal bantamweight clash. No matter the result, fans can expect an explosive contest for as long as it lasts.