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The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.
Score: 18 Odds: Jared Cannonier: 162 Caio Borralho: -210
Jared "The Killa Gorilla" Cannonier is a seasoned veteran known for his powerful striking, especially his devastating leg kicks. Despite being 40 years old, he maintains impressive cardio and has shown the ability to fight effectively in multiple weight classes. Cannonier's takedown defense is also a key strength.
In his recent loss to Nassourdine Imavov, Cannonier started strong, using lateral movement and faints to disrupt Imavov's rhythm. He mixed in leg kicks, front kicks, and body shots, but Imavov's rangy strikes and clinch control minimized their impact. The fight ended controversially in the fourth round when Imavov landed a significant counter, leading to a TKO stoppage that some felt was premature.
Against Marvin Vettori, Cannonier demonstrated improved volume striking and strategic takedowns. He switched stances to confuse Vettori's timing and maintained pressure throughout the fight, securing a dominant decision victory.
Cannonier's knockout win over Derek Brunson showcased his striking precision and ability to capitalize on openings. He targeted Brunson's legs with kicks, neutralizing his wrestling threat, and finished the fight with a devastating elbow-hook combination in the second round.
While Cannonier's power and experience make him a formidable opponent, his predictable orthodox stance and occasional vulnerability to counters could be potential weaknesses. His cardio has also been questioned in later rounds of some fights.
Caio "The Natural" Borralho is a rising contender with a well-rounded skillset. His grappling, rooted in his Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu background, is his primary strength. Borralho excels at controlling fights on the mat, using techniques like butterfly sweeps and guillotine turnovers to gain dominant positions.
In his recent fights, Borralho has shown a heavy reliance on his grappling to neutralize opponents' striking. Against Makhmud Muradov, he consistently pursued takedowns and maintained top control, stifling Muradov's striking threats en route to a unanimous decision win.
While Borralho's grappling has been highly effective, his striking is less polished. He sometimes struggles to blend his stand-up effectively with his groundwork. There is room for improvement in his ability to significantly damage opponents with strikes and secure finishes.
Borralho's fight IQ is a notable asset. He implements well-structured game plans focused on exploiting opponents' weaknesses and leveraging his own strengths. His adaptability has been evident in difficult situations, using his grappling to evade damage and regain control.
At 31 years old, Borralho is entering his prime and riding an impressive unbeaten streak. His recent knockout of Paul Craig at UFC 301 showcased his improving finishing abilities. However, his striking remains an area that could be exploited by elite-level opposition.
The WolfTicketsAI model predicts a win for Caio Borralho, based largely on his grappling skills, well-rounded game, and strong recent performances. The data suggests he may have advantages in striking volume and impact, despite Cannonier's vaunted knockout power.
However, Cannonier's experience, striking prowess, and takedown defense make him a live underdog. His veteran savvy and fight-changing power cannot be discounted.
Ultimately, this fight may come down to whether Borralho can consistently take Cannonier down and keep him there. If Cannonier can maintain distance and unload his strikes, we could see another signature KO. But if Borralho gets his grappling going, he has a clear path to victory.
Score: 11 Odds: Angela Hill: -118 Tabatha Ricci: -108
Angela Hill, a seasoned veteran at 39 years old, is known for her striking prowess and durability. With a record of 17-13, she has the most fights in UFC strawweight history. Hill's background in kickboxing is evident in her crisp striking technique, as she excels at pressuring opponents with volume punching and kicks. Her toughness and ability to withstand damage make her extremely difficult to finish, and she often engages in slugfests to wear down her opponents.
However, Hill's grappling and takedown defense have been exploited in some of her losses, with opponents like Mackenzie Dern exposing this hole in her game. In the Dern fight, Hill struggled to handle the relentless pressure, which prevented her from establishing her preferred rhythm and maintaining control of the bout.
Despite these challenges, Hill's experience, technical skills, and high-volume striking make her a formidable opponent. Her ability to maintain a consistent output and her willingness to engage in all areas of the fight are significant assets that could prove decisive against Tabatha Ricci. Hill is coming off two solid wins over Denise Gomes and Luana Pinheiro.
Tabatha Ricci, a 29-year-old Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, possesses a well-rounded skill set. With a record of 10-2 (5-2 UFC), she is a dangerous up-and-comer in the strawweight division. Ricci's grappling prowess, stemming from her background in BJJ and judo, makes her a constant submission threat on the ground.
While primarily known for her grappling, Ricci has shown improvement in her striking in recent fights, making her a more multi-dimensional threat. However, her striking defense has been a point of concern, as she has absorbed a significant number of head strikes per minute (3.3128 in her recent fights).
Ricci's two UFC losses have come by decision, demonstrating her toughness and ability to avoid being finished. She rebounded from a loss to Loopy Godinez by defeating Tecia Pennington in her last fight, showcasing her improved striking and grappling skills.
For Angela Hill to emerge victorious, she likely needs to keep the fight standing and overwhelm Ricci with her striking volume. Hill's kickboxing background and ability to maintain a high pace could be crucial in preventing Ricci from settling into a grappling rhythm. However, Hill must be cautious not to overextend herself and leave openings for Ricci's takedowns.
On the other hand, Tabatha Ricci's best path to victory probably involves taking Hill down and utilizing her grappling skills. If Ricci can successfully implement her grappling-heavy approach, she has the potential to frustrate Hill and potentially secure a submission victory.
Striking vs Grappling: This matchup pits Angela Hill's high-volume striking against Tabatha Ricci's grappling-centric approach. The outcome may largely depend on which fighter can impose their preferred game plan more effectively.
Pace and Pressure: Hill's ability to maintain a high pace and apply consistent pressure could be crucial in preventing Ricci from settling into a grappling rhythm. However, Hill must be cautious not to overextend herself and leave openings for Ricci's takedowns.
Defensive Concerns: Both fighters have shown defensive vulnerabilities in their recent fights. Hill has struggled against opponents who can match her aggression, while Ricci has absorbed a significant number of strikes, particularly to the head. Addressing these defensive lapses could be critical for both athletes.
Grappling Exchanges: If the fight hits the mat, Ricci's grappling skills and submission threats could become a significant factor. Hill's defensive grappling and ability to scramble back to her feet will be tested, and she may need to rely on her striking prowess to deter Ricci's grappling advances.
The WolfTicketsAI prediction favors Angela Hill to win this matchup, with a confidence score of 11. Several key factors likely influenced this prediction:
Significant Striking Impact Differential: Hill has a higher Significant Striking Impact Differential (7.4400) compared to Ricci (-8.5714), indicating that Hill tends to land more impactful strikes relative to her opponents. This could be a crucial advantage in a primarily striking-based matchup.
Striking Output and Accuracy: Hill has demonstrated a higher striking output (6.2586 Strikes Landed per Minute) and accuracy (52.56% Striking Accuracy) compared to Ricci (6.1950 Strikes Landed per Minute, 44.76% Striking Accuracy). These metrics suggest that Hill may be able to outland and more consistently connect with her strikes against Ricci.
Recent Win Percentage: Hill has a slightly higher Recent Win Percentage (67%) compared to Ricci (67%), indicating a marginally better recent track record. This, combined with Hill's extensive experience in the UFC, may have influenced the prediction in her favor.
Reach Advantage: Hill possesses a 3-inch reach advantage over Ricci (64 inches vs 61 inches), which could prove beneficial in a striking-centric contest, allowing her to maintain distance and connect with strikes from the outside.
It's important to consider the past performance of the WolfTicketsAI model when evaluating its predictions.
For Angela Hill, the model has a mixed track record, correctly predicting 4 out of her last 6 fights. Notably, the model incorrectly predicted Loopy Godinez to win against Hill in their August 2022 bout, which Hill won by unanimous decision. This suggests that the model may have some limitations in capturing certain aspects of Hill's game or the stylistic dynamics of specific matchups.
In Tabatha Ricci's case, the model has correctly predicted 3 out of her last 4 fights, indicating a somewhat reliable track record. However, it's worth noting that the model has a limited sample size to work with, given Ricci's relatively fewer fights in the UFC compared to Hill.
While the model's past performance provides some insight, it's crucial to consider other factors, such as recent improvements, stylistic matchups, and potential game plan adaptations, which may not be fully captured by the historical data.
The WolfTicketsAI model predicts Angela Hill to win against Tabatha Ricci, with a confidence score of 11. This prediction is likely based on Hill's striking prowess, higher significant striking impact differential, and overall experience in the UFC.
However, Ricci's grappling skills and submission threats cannot be overlooked. If she can effectively implement her grappling-heavy game plan and neutralize Hill's striking, she has a clear path to victory.
Ultimately, the outcome of this fight may hinge on which fighter can impose their preferred style more effectively. Hill's ability to maintain a high pace, apply pressure, and connect with impactful strikes will be crucial, while Ricci's success may depend on her ability to secure takedowns, control the grappling exchanges, and capitalize on any defensive lapses from Hill.
As with any MMA fight, the unpredictable nature of the sport means that the result is never a foregone conclusion. Both fighters have the tools and skills to emerge victorious, and the winner will likely be determined by who can make the necessary adjustments and execute their game plan more effectively on fight night. With Hill's striking and veteran savvy contrasted against Ricci's grappling and youthful hunger, this shapes up as a compelling clash of styles.
Score: 19 Odds: Neil Magny: +430 Michael Morales: -670
Neil Magny, a seasoned veteran with a 29-11 record, brings a wealth of experience to this matchup. His fighting style is characterized by his exceptional 80-inch reach, high-volume striking, and improved grappling skills. Magny's ability to adapt to various fighting styles has been a key factor in his longevity in the UFC.
Magny's most recent performance, a TKO victory over Mike Malott in January 2024, showcased his resilience and ability to overcome adversity against younger, hungry opponents. This win demonstrated Magny's improved striking defense and grappling prowess, securing a third-round finish after weathering early pressure.
Throughout his career, Magny has shown a knack for using his reach to keep opponents at bay, often overwhelming them with a constant barrage of strikes. His clinch work and wrestling background allow him to control fights against the cage and on the ground. Magny's excellent submission defense has also been crucial in surviving against high-level grapplers.
However, Magny has shown vulnerability to powerful strikers who can close the distance quickly and land heavy shots. This weakness was exploited in his loss to Ian Machado Garry, where Garry's relentless calf kicks severely compromised Magny's mobility.
Michael Morales enters this bout as an undefeated prospect with a perfect 16-0 record. The Ecuadorian fighter has shown impressive potential in his young UFC career, with notable victories over Jake Matthews and Max Griffin.
Morales's fighting style is characterized by his powerful striking, particularly his devastating 1-2 combination. He's shown a knack for managing distance effectively, using his 79-inch reach to keep opponents at bay while looking for opportunities to land his power shots. With 8 KO/TKO victories, Morales has proven his ability to finish fights with his striking.
In his most recent fight against Jake Matthews in November 2023, Morales displayed improved defensive wrestling and grappling, successfully defending takedown attempts and maintaining control in the clinch. His aggressive fighting style and constant pressure have been key factors in his success.
Morales is also a competent grappler, with 4 submission wins to his name, showcasing his well-rounded skill set. However, he has yet to face an opponent with Magny's level of experience and well-rounded abilities.
Experience vs. Potential: This fight pits Magny's vast experience (40 professional fights) against Morales's undefeated record and raw potential. Magny's experience could be a significant factor in high-pressure situations.
Striking Dynamics: Both fighters possess similar reach, with Magny having a slight 1-inch advantage. Morales's power punching and aggressive style contrast with Magny's volume-based approach, setting up an interesting clash of striking styles.
Grappling Factor: Magny's improved takedown defense (83.93%) and strong wrestling background could neutralize any grappling attempts from Morales. However, Morales has shown solid takedown defense and submission skills in recent fights.
Cardio and Pacing: Magny is known for his exceptional cardio and ability to maintain a high pace throughout fights. Morales, while explosive, hasn't been tested in a full three-round UFC bout yet.
Recent Form and Momentum: Magny is coming off a significant win over Mike Malott, potentially boosting his confidence. Morales, while undefeated, is returning from an injury layoff, which could impact his performance.
Odds Impact: The significant odds difference heavily influenced the model's prediction, suggesting strong public and expert confidence in Morales.
Takedown Attempts: Morales's recent increase in takedown attempts compared to Magny's historical average suggests a potential area of advantage for Magny if he chooses to wrestle.
Striking Defense: Magny's slightly lower striking defense percentage compared to Morales indicates a potential vulnerability that Morales might exploit with his power punching.
Recent Performance: Morales's perfect recent win percentage and higher recent significant strikes landed per minute suggest he's entering this fight in top form, despite the injury layoff.
The model has correctly predicted 4 out of 7 of Magny's recent fights, including his losses to high-level opponents like Gilbert Burns and Shavkat Rakhmonov.
For Morales, the model has correctly predicted both of his UFC fights so far, showing strong confidence in the young prospect.
While WolfTicketsAI favors Michael Morales to win this bout, Neil Magny's experience and recent performance against Mike Malott show he's still a formidable opponent. Morales's power punching, perfect record, and aggressive style make him a dangerous prospect, but Magny's volume striking, improved grappling, and ability to adapt to various fighting styles could pose significant challenges.
The key to victory for Morales will be to maintain his aggressive approach, land his power shots early, and avoid Magny's clinch game. For Magny, weathering the early storm, utilizing his experience, and dragging Morales into deep waters could be the path to an upset victory.
Score: 19 Odds: Edmen Shahbazyan: -340 Gerald Meerschaert: 250
Edmen Shahbazyan, a well-rounded fighter with a strong striking base, has shown flashes of brilliance in his UFC career. Known for his explosive starts and powerful striking, Shahbazyan has demonstrated the ability to end fights quickly. His crisp boxing and kickboxing, coupled with good power in his hands, make him a formidable opponent on the feet.
Shahbazyan's most recent victory over AJ Dobson in March 2024 showcased his improved knockout power, finishing the fight in the first round with a devastating KO/TKO. This win was crucial for Shahbazyan, marking his first finish since 2020 and potentially signaling a return to form after a rough patch in his career.
However, Shahbazyan's career has been a rollercoaster ride. After a promising start in the UFC, he faced a three-fight losing streak against top-tier competition. These losses exposed some weaknesses in his game, particularly his cardio and ability to handle pressure. In his fight against Derek Brunson, Shahbazyan struggled with Brunson's wrestling and ground control, eventually succumbing to a TKO loss in the third round.
It's worth noting that Shahbazyan has recently switched camps to Xtreme Couture, which could potentially address his grappling defense and cardio issues. This change in training environment might prove crucial in his upcoming fight.
Gerald Meerschaert, a seasoned veteran of the octagon, brings a wealth of experience to this matchup. With an impressive 36 wins in his professional career, Meerschaert has proven to be a crafty and dangerous opponent for anyone in the middleweight division.
Meerschaert's strongest asset is his submission game. He holds the record for the most submission wins in UFC middleweight history, with a staggering 1.6257 submissions per fight. In fact, 10 of his 12 UFC wins have come by submission, showcasing his exceptional ground game and jiu-jitsu skills.
On the feet, Meerschaert is a capable striker but tends to be slow and plodding. He's willing to take shots to close distance and work for takedowns. His recent victory over Bryan Barberena via submission in the second round further solidifies his reputation as a submission specialist.
However, Meerschaert's recent record has been inconsistent. He has alternated wins and losses in his last 7 fights dating back to 2020, and has been finished by strikes in several recent losses.
WolfTicketsAI's prediction heavily favors Edmen Shahbazyan, and here's why:
The model has shown consistent accuracy for both fighters, correctly predicting Shahbazyan's recent win and loss, as well as Meerschaert's recent performances. However, the model's incorrect prediction in Meerschaert's fight against Bruno Silva suggests caution, especially given Meerschaert's submission prowess.
WolfTicketsAI's prediction favoring Edmen Shahbazyan is based on his recent form, striking power, and the betting odds. However, this fight is far from a foregone conclusion. Shahbazyan's explosive striking and potentially improved cardio could lead him to an early victory, but Meerschaert's veteran experience and submission skills make him a dangerous opponent at any point in the fight.
The key for Shahbazyan will be to keep the fight standing, utilize his superior striking, and avoid Meerschaert's takedown attempts. He needs to be wary of fading in later rounds, a weakness that Meerschaert could exploit.
For Meerschaert, weathering the early storm, closing the distance, and taking the fight to the ground could be the key to an upset victory. If he can drag Shahbazyan into deep waters, his grappling could become a major factor, especially if Shahbazyan slows down.
Score: 25 Odds: Jacqueline Cavalcanti: -205 Josiane Nunes: 158
Jacqueline Cavalcanti enters this bout with a promising 6-1 record, showcasing her potential in the women's bantamweight division. Her UFC debut against Zarah Fairn was a striking clinic, demonstrating her technical prowess and defensive acumen. Cavalcanti's striking accuracy of 57.01% combined with her exceptional striking defense percentage of 84.94% paints the picture of a fighter who can dish out punishment while effectively avoiding incoming strikes.
Cavalcanti's game plan revolves around a high-volume striking approach, landing an impressive 8.4 significant strikes per minute. Her 5'8" frame and 70" reach give her significant physical advantages in this matchup, which she leverages effectively with her jab and footwork. In her UFC debut, Cavalcanti showcased her dominance by landing 126 significant strikes compared to her opponent's mere 39.
Josiane Nunes brings a wealth of experience to the octagon with a 10-2 record. Known for her knockout power, Nunes has secured 7 of her 10 wins via KO/TKO, averaging 0.9018 knockdowns per fight. This demonstrates her ability to end fights with her hands, making her a constant threat on the feet.
Nunes' aggressive style and power punching are her primary weapons. She's known for her early round intensity, with 3 first-round stoppages on her record. However, this aggression can leave her open to counters, as seen in her recent loss to Chelsea Chandler. Nunes' striking output is impressive at 5.992 significant strikes per minute, but her striking defense percentage of 53.46% leaves her vulnerable to counter-attacks.
Jacqueline Cavalcanti has no previous predictions from WolfTicketsAI, which adds an element of uncertainty to this prediction. This lack of historical data should be considered when evaluating the model's confidence.
For Josiane Nunes, WolfTicketsAI has a mixed record: - Correctly predicted Nunes' win against Zarah Fairn with a high confidence score of 0.84. - Incorrectly predicted Nunes to win against Chelsea Chandler with a moderate confidence score of 0.57.
WolfTicketsAI predicts Jacqueline Cavalcanti to emerge victorious in this women's bantamweight clash. The prediction is based on Cavalcanti's superior striking accuracy, exceptional defense, and impressive significant striking impact differential. Her size advantage and ability to maintain distance could be the key to neutralizing Nunes' knockout power.
The fight is likely to be a classic striker vs puncher matchup. Cavalcanti will aim to use her jab and footwork to keep Nunes at bay, while Nunes will look to close the distance, potentially using feints and level changes to get inside and unleash her power combinations. Cavalcanti's grappling background could also come into play if Nunes manages to close the distance.
While Cavalcanti appears to have the technical edge, Nunes' experience and knockout power make her a dangerous opponent who shouldn't be underestimated. If Cavalcanti can weather Nunes' early storm and avoid her power shots, her higher striking output and defensive skills could see her through to a decision victory. However, given the limited UFC data on Cavalcanti and the model's mixed performance on Nunes' fights, this prediction should be approached with cautious optimism.