Analysis: Tecia Pennington vs Denise Gomes

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Denise Gomes to Win

Score: 7
Odds:
Tecia Pennington: +154
Denise Gomes: -200

Tecia Pennington's Breakdown

Pennington brings 22 UFC fights worth of experience but carries a concerning recent record—she's lost 2 of her last 3, including a split decision to Tabatha Ricci in May 2024. The "Tiny Tornado" relies on constant lateral movement and high-volume striking, but her finishing rate tells a damning story: just 2 finishes across 22 UFC fights. That lack of finishing threat lets opponents settle into defensive rhythms without urgency.

Her signature techniques center around switch-stance combinations, particularly the jab-cross-hook sequence followed by body kicks. Against Luana Pinheiro in May 2025, she used push kicks effectively to maintain distance and employed up-kicks from bottom position to create separation. Her double-leg takedown attempts after feinting overhands have become predictable, though—opponents read them coming. She shoots 3.89 takedowns per fight but converts at just 13.85%, exposing a technical gap in her wrestling setups.

Pennington's clinch work shows improvement, particularly her short-range elbows that hurt Carla Esparza in October 2024. When she secured back control against Esparza in round three, she flattened her out effectively before Esparza escaped. Against Mackenzie Dern in April 2022, she defended a kimura and leg entanglement sequence, showing solid submission defense even from bad positions.

Tecia Pennington's Technical Vulnerabilities

Fence Management Deficiencies: Pennington retreats directly backward until pinned against the cage rather than circling out early. Against Tabatha Ricci, this pattern allowed Ricci to trap her repeatedly. She lacks effective framing techniques when backed up, relying on athleticism instead of technical solutions. When Carla Esparza feinted a level change before closing with an overhand in round two, Pennington retreated straight back and got clinched against the fence.

Predictable Reset Patterns: After combinations, Pennington resets with her chin high and hands slightly dropped. This happened repeatedly against Marina Rodriguez in August 2019, where Rodriguez exploited it with long-range jabs and straight rights. Against Joanna Jedrzejczyk in July 2018, JJ timed counter strikes during these reset moments, landing clean shots as Pennington disengaged.

Limited Finishing Mechanics: Two finishes in 22 UFC fights reveals fundamental gaps. Her striking combinations terminate before reaching knockout-level commitment—she pulls punches short rather than stepping through completely. Against Angela Hill in August 2021, she maintained high output but never threatened a finish despite controlling the pace. Her submission game is non-existent offensively; she's never threatened a finish from top position.

Denise Gomes's Breakdown

Gomes enters on a 5-fight UFC winning streak with 3 finishes, including a brutal first-round KO of Elise Reed in May 2025. She's a counter-striker who times devastating right hands against opponents' offensive commitments. Against Reed, she landed a perfect counter right straight as Reed threw a low kick—Reed's weight was on one leg, hands out of position, moving forward into the shot. Classic knockout mechanics.

Her signature weapon is the lead hand manipulation to straight right combination. She slaps down opponents' lead hands, creating a clean path for her lightning-fast right straight. Against Karolina Kowalkiewicz in November 2024, she used this sequence repeatedly along the fence. She also employs a double-pump flying knee after checking opponents' hands—she landed this perfectly on Kowalkiewicz's chin after pinning her against the cage.

Gomes's pressure-based fence work is elite. She pushes opponents to the cage, places their back foot against it to eliminate retreat, then maintains striking range while they can't escape. Against Eduarda Moura in June 2024, she defended takedowns with excellent sprawls, then immediately transitioned to punishing counters as Moura stood up. At 2:37 of round one against Moura, she landed a front kick to the body followed by a right straight as Moura closed distance.

Her blitzing right hand to left hook combination closes distance explosively. She used this against Yazmin Jauregui in July 2023, dropping her with a counter right at 2:13 of round two after Jauregui rushed in following Gomes's inside low kick.

Denise Gomes's Technical Vulnerabilities

Low Kick Defense: Gomes shows significant vulnerability to leg kicks early in fights. She visibly reacts poorly when absorbing them—sometimes spinning in her stance or bending at the waist. Against Loma Lookboonmee in September 2022, she struggled with Lookboonmee's traditional Muay Thai low kicks before adjusting mid-fight. This defensive gap could be exploited by Pennington's volume kicking game.

Overcommitment on Blitzes: When rushing forward with combinations, Gomes leaves her chin exposed during entries. Against Bruna Brasil in April 2023, she committed so heavily to forward momentum that she created counter opportunities. She relies on her opponent's defensive lapses rather than technical setups. Against more defensively sound opponents, these blitzes could be countered.

Linear Retreat Patterns: When pressured, Gomes retreats straight backward with her chin exposed rather than using lateral movement. This was evident against Lookboonmee when pressured—she backed up in straight lines rather than circling out. Pennington's constant lateral movement and feinting could exploit this if she can establish sustained pressure.

Style Matchup Dynamics

Gomes's counter-striking approach directly counters Pennington's predictable offensive patterns. Pennington's switch-stance combinations and body kicks create perfect windows for Gomes's counter right hand. When Pennington switches stance to throw her lead hook followed by a body kick, she momentarily exposes her chin—exactly the opening Gomes exploits.

Pennington's tendency to shoot double-legs after feinting overhands plays into Gomes's hands. Gomes has shown excellent takedown defense with reactive sprawls against Moura, then immediately punishes opponents with strikes as they stand. Pennington's 13.85% takedown accuracy suggests she'll struggle to land these attempts, and each failed shot gives Gomes counter opportunities.

The fence dynamic favors Gomes heavily. Pennington retreats straight backward until trapped against the cage—Gomes's specialty. Once Pennington's back hits the fence, Gomes can employ her lead hand manipulation and flying knee sequences that finished Kowalkiewicz. Pennington's clinch defense has improved, but Gomes doesn't need extended clinch work—she strikes effectively in that range.

Pennington's lack of finishing threat means Gomes can fight without urgency. She doesn't need to worry about getting caught in a submission or knocked out by Pennington's volume striking. This allows Gomes to be patient, wait for Pennington's predictable entries, and time her counters perfectly.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early Rounds: Pennington will likely establish her jab and lateral movement early, using volume to score points. Gomes will absorb some leg kicks—her defensive weakness—but remain patient. Pennington's switch-stance combinations will create counter opportunities. The first significant exchange will likely come when Pennington shoots a double-leg after a feinted overhand. Gomes sprawls, Pennington stands, and Gomes lands a counter right hand as Pennington resets. This pattern repeats.

Mid-Fight Adjustments: As Pennington realizes her takedowns aren't working, she'll increase striking volume. This plays into Gomes's counter game. Pennington will eventually get backed to the fence—her consistent pattern. Once there, Gomes applies pressure, uses lead hand manipulation, and lands clean power shots. Pennington's clinch defense holds initially, but Gomes's striking from that range accumulates damage.

Championship Rounds: If it reaches round three, Pennington's cardio advantage (she's fought 15 minutes 18 times) keeps her output high. But Gomes has shown excellent cardio in her recent fights, maintaining power late. Pennington's predictable reset patterns become more pronounced as fatigue sets in—chin high, hands dropped. Gomes times a counter right hand during one of these resets. The finish comes via strikes, or Gomes cruises to a clear decision based on damage and control.

Analysis and Key Points

• Experience Gap: Pennington's 22 UFC fights vs. Gomes's 7 UFC fights seems significant, but Gomes is 6-1 in the UFC with 3 finishes. Pennington's experience hasn't translated to finishing ability.

• Finishing Threat Disparity: Gomes has 3 KO/TKO wins in her last 5 UFC fights. Pennington has 2 finishes in 22 UFC fights total. This creates urgency asymmetry—Gomes can end it anytime, Pennington can't.

• Counter-Striking vs. Volume: Pennington lands 4.78 significant strikes per minute at 48.08% accuracy. Gomes lands 4.12 significant strikes per minute at 54.69% accuracy. Gomes is more accurate with comparable output, suggesting better shot selection.

• Defensive Metrics: Pennington's 61.90% significant striking defense is solid, but Gomes's recent opponents (Reed, Kowalkiewicz) had similar defensive percentages and got finished. Gomes finds the openings.

• Takedown Dynamics: Pennington attempts 3.89 takedowns per fight at 13.85% accuracy. Gomes defends 50% of takedowns but has shown excellent reactive defense against Moura. Pennington's low conversion rate suggests she won't find success here.

• Fence Control: Gomes excels at cage pressure (see Kowalkiewicz fight). Pennington struggles when backed to the fence (see Ricci, Esparza fights). This is a critical tactical advantage.

Understanding the Prediction

The model gives Gomes a score of 7, driven by several key statistical factors:

• Odds decreased the prediction score by 8.0: Gomes is a -200 favorite, which typically decreases model confidence, but the other factors outweigh this.

• Recent Significant Striking Defense Percentage increased the score by 4.0: Gomes's 45.77% recent significant striking defense is improving, while Pennington's 67.89% is solid but hasn't prevented her from losing 2 of 3.

• Recent Win Percentage decreased the score by 3.0: Pennington's 67% recent win rate (4-2 in last 6) vs. Gomes's 100% (5-0 in last 5) favors Gomes heavily.

• TrueSkill decreased the score by 2.0: Pennington's TrueSkill (Mu: 30.16, Sigma: 2.64) is higher than Gomes's (Mu: 23.32, Sigma: 5.78), reflecting experience, but Gomes's recent performance trajectory is ascending rapidly.

• Striking Defense Percentage increased the score by 2.0: Gomes's overall 43.09% significant striking defense is lower than Pennington's 61.90%, but Gomes's recent improvements and finishing ability offset this.

• Recent Significant Striking Impact Differential increased the score by 1.0: Gomes's +12.36 recent differential vs. Pennington's +19.25 seems to favor Pennington, but Gomes's finishes create impact beyond volume.

The model recognizes that Gomes's finishing ability, counter-striking precision, and cage control create a stylistic nightmare for Pennington's volume-based, non-finishing approach.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a mixed record on both fighters:

Tecia Pennington: - Correctly predicted her win over Luana Pinheiro (0.72 score) in May 2025 - Correctly predicted her win over Carla Esparza (0.53 score) in October 2024 - Correctly predicted Tabatha Ricci to beat her (0.53 score) in May 2024—this loss is significant - Incorrectly predicted her to beat Mackenzie Dern (0.28 score) in April 2022—Dern won by split decision

Denise Gomes: - Correctly predicted her KO win over Elise Reed (0.65 score) in May 2025 - Correctly predicted her decision win over Karolina Kowalkiewicz (0.64 score) in November 2024 - Incorrectly predicted Eduarda Moura to win (0.70 score) in June 2024—Gomes won by split decision, showing she can overcome adversity - Correctly predicted Angela Hill to beat her (0.73 score) in November 2023—Gomes's only UFC loss - Incorrectly predicted Yazmin Jauregui to win (0.74 score) in July 2023—Gomes scored a first-round KO

The model has been accurate on Pennington's recent wins but correctly predicted her loss to Ricci. For Gomes, it missed her upset over Moura and her KO of Jauregui, suggesting it may underestimate her finishing ability. However, it correctly predicted her loss to Hill and her recent wins. The 0.7 confidence score here reflects measured confidence in Gomes's advantages.

Conclusion

Denise Gomes finishes Tecia Pennington inside the distance or wins a clear decision. Pennington's volume striking and lateral movement won't overcome Gomes's counter-striking precision and finishing power. When Pennington shoots her predictable double-legs, Gomes sprawls and counters. When Pennington gets backed to the fence—her consistent pattern—Gomes applies devastating pressure with lead hand manipulation and power shots. Pennington's lack of finishing threat (2 in 22 UFC fights) means she can't make Gomes respect her offense, allowing Gomes to fight patiently and time her counters. The most likely outcome is a second or third-round TKO as Gomes lands a counter right hand during one of Pennington's predictable reset sequences. If it goes to decision, Gomes wins clearly based on damage, cage control, and cleaner striking. WolfTicketsAI's pick of Gomes at -200 is sound—she's the more dangerous, ascending fighter against a volume striker who can't finish and struggles when pressured to the fence.