Analysis: Ricky Simon vs Raoni Barcelos

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Raoni Barcelos to Win

Score: 1.0
Odds:
Ricky Simon: -164
Raoni Barcelos: +128

Ricky Simon's Breakdown

Simon enters this fight on a two-fight win streak after a brutal three-fight skid that exposed serious technical gaps. His recent victory over Cameron Smotherman showcased his wrestling-heavy approach, but against a short-notice replacement who was clearly overmatched. The more telling performance was his knockout of Javid Basharat, where Simon's thigh-slap to left hook/uppercut sequence and perfectly timed 1-2 combination demonstrated his ability to blend striking and wrestling threats.

Simon's signature techniques revolve around constant level changes that flow into takedown attempts. His boxing is compact and effective in close quarters, using 1-2 combinations to set up wrestling entries. Against Basharat, he landed 4.28 takedowns per fight with a 39% success rate, showing his ability to chain wrestling attacks together. His tendon grab to snatch single-leg is a technical innovation that attacks mechanically vulnerable points.

However, Simon's recent losses reveal a fighter whose game has regressed. Against Vinicius Oliveira, he abandoned his wrestling for extended periods and looked at the floor while throwing punches—a defensive nightmare. Mario Bautista exposed his predictable inside slip pattern, feinting jabs to trigger Simon's head movement then landing right hands and elbows. Song Yadong finished him in round 5 after Simon failed to adjust his strategy throughout the fight, showing limited adaptability when his initial gameplan fails.

At 32 years old with a 1-3 record in his last four before the recent wins, Simon appears to be a gatekeeper rather than a contender. His wrestling remains dangerous against lower-level competition, but elite opponents have consistently exploited his striking deficiencies and predictable entries.

Ricky Simon's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Predictable Head Movement and Defensive Gaps: Simon consistently slips to the inside of jabs, making him vulnerable to fighters who can read this pattern. Bautista exploited this by feinting jabs to trigger Simon's slip, then throwing right hands to his right side during his predictable lean. Against Song Yadong, Simon reset with his chin high after combinations, leaving him open to counters that eventually led to the fifth-round TKO.

2. Striking-Wrestling Compartmentalization: Simon's recent performances show increasing separation between his striking and wrestling phases. Against Oliveira, he abandoned his wrestling completely for extended periods, making his attacks predictable. When he does strike without the takedown threat, his limited versatility becomes apparent—he lacks the subtlety and variety needed against elite counter strikers. This was evident in the Yadong fight where his inability to close distance without telegraphing his intentions led to him being picked apart.

3. Cardio-Related Technical Decline: While Simon maintains good cardio for three rounds, his technical execution deteriorates under sustained pressure. Against Bautista in round 3, his defensive awareness decreased significantly. When forced to work at a high pace against Oliveira and Yadong, his striking became more predictable and his wrestling entries more telegraphed, suggesting his technical sharpness fades when opponents force extended exchanges.

Raoni Barcelos's Breakdown

Barcelos enters on a three-fight win streak with victories over Payton Talbott, Cristian Quinonez, and Cody Garbrandt—his biggest career win. At 38 years old, the Brazilian has proven his elite cardio exceeds younger opponents, maintaining relentless pressure across all three rounds. Against Garbrandt, Barcelos landed devastating leg kicks that swept Cody's feet out from under him in round 3, then took the back and secured hooks with nearly two minutes remaining.

Barcelos's technical approach revolves around intelligent pressure that blends wrestling and striking. His signature step-up calf kick is particularly effective against orthodox opponents, and he strategically sets these up by throwing high kicks to elevate guards. Against Talbott, he caught the prospect's first low kick attempt and converted it into a takedown, establishing the wrestling threat that created hesitation in Talbott's striking. His bump-and-roll mount transition—timing opponents' bridges to step over into mount—is a Marcelo Garcia-inspired technique that showcases his grappling IQ.

His striking has evolved significantly. Barcelos's counter left hook combinations are exceptionally accurate, taking multiple punches on his high guard before returning with devastating short-range hooks. Against Quinonez, he released from the clinch with a perfectly timed right hook that caught his opponent on the chin. His ability to layer different phases together—using single-leg attempts not just as takedowns but as strategic tools to transition into clinch entries or striking combinations—creates unpredictable offensive sequences.

Barcelos averages 4.87 significant strikes per minute at 53% accuracy with 2.33 takedowns per fight. His recent performances show improved striking-to-wrestling integration, using strikes as setups rather than independent weapons. Against Garbrandt, he maintained constant pressure with knees to the body that briefly stunned "No Love," then ripped uppercuts to the body when backing him to the fence.

Raoni Barcelos's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Early Round Vulnerability to Speed: Barcelos can be caught by faster, more explosive strikers early in fights. Garbrandt rocked him with a right hand in round 1, causing Raoni to briefly drop to a knee. This demonstrates that Barcelos's pressure-based approach leaves him open to counter strikes from opponents with superior hand speed, particularly in the opening five minutes before his pace and cardio advantages take over.

2. Takedown Inefficiency Against Strong Defensive Wrestling: Despite threatening takedowns constantly, Barcelos completed only 1 of 11 attempts (9% success rate) against Garbrandt, who stuffed 10 attempts. His wrestling entries, while creating offensive pressure, lack the technical refinement to finish against opponents with solid takedown defense. This forces him to rely more heavily on his striking and cardio advantages, which could be problematic against fighters who can match his pace while defending takedowns.

3. Cardio-Related Technical Decline in Extended Fights: Against Quinonez, Barcelos's counter-punching remained sharp early but his defensive reactions slowed significantly in later rounds. His snapping head movement became exaggerated and predictable by round 3, leaving him vulnerable to straight punches. When Quinonez caught his kick and dragged it across his body for a trip, it culminated in back control and a rear-naked choke finish—showing how Barcelos's technical execution deteriorates when forced to maintain high output against opponents who can match his cardio.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This fight presents a fascinating clash of wrestling-based pressure fighters with contrasting technical approaches. Simon's compact boxing and level changes meet Barcelos's intelligent pressure and superior cardio in a matchup that will likely be decided by who can impose their wrestling game.

Simon's Path to Victory: Simon needs to establish his wrestling early, using his 4.28 takedowns per fight to control Barcelos on the mat. His thigh-slap to uppercut/hook sequence could exploit Barcelos's tendency to absorb combinations on his high guard before countering. If Simon can maintain the wrestling-striking integration he showed against Basharat—rather than the compartmentalized approach that failed against Oliveira—his compact combinations in close quarters could create openings for takedowns.

However, Simon's predictable inside slip pattern plays directly into Barcelos's counter left hook, which he deploys when opponents commit to right-hand strikes. Barcelos's step-up calf kicks will target Simon's lead leg, disrupting the level changes that make Simon's wrestling effective. Most critically, Barcelos's superior cardio will force Simon to work at a pace where his technical execution historically deteriorates.

Barcelos's Path to Victory: Barcelos's relentless pressure and leg kicks will disrupt Simon's rhythm, preventing him from establishing the striking-to-wrestling flow he needs. Against Garbrandt, Barcelos landed leg kicks that literally swept his opponent's feet away—Simon's tendency to reset with his chin high after combinations makes him vulnerable to these attacks. Barcelos's ability to catch kicks and convert them into takedowns (as he did against Talbott) neutralizes Simon's limited kicking game.

The Brazilian's cardio advantage becomes decisive in rounds 2 and 3. Simon has shown clear technical decline when forced to work at high pace (Bautista, Yadong), while Barcelos maintains output and technical sharpness. Barcelos's counter left hook specifically exploits Simon's predictable inside slip—when Simon slips inside to avoid jabs, Barcelos can time the devastating short-range hook that has troubled multiple opponents.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early Rounds (1-2): Simon will attempt to establish his wrestling immediately, shooting double-legs after his 1-2 combinations. Barcelos will pressure forward with leg kicks and high guards, looking to counter Simon's predictable entries. The key sequence will be whether Simon can complete takedowns before Barcelos's leg kicks compromise his level changes. Barcelos's early vulnerability to speed gives Simon a window, but his recent knockout loss to Yadong (who was recently KO'd) suggests Simon may be hesitant to fully commit.

Mid-Fight Adjustments: As Barcelos's pressure accumulates, Simon's technical execution will begin deteriorating. His striking-wrestling integration will become more compartmentalized, making his attacks predictable. Barcelos will increase his output, landing more leg kicks and body strikes while Simon's defensive awareness decreases. The Brazilian's ability to maintain pressure without the fence (controlling center cage) prevents Simon from using his preferred cage-wrestling approach.

Championship Rounds: This is where Barcelos's cardio advantage becomes overwhelming. Simon has shown significant technical decline in later rounds against high-pace opponents, while Barcelos maintains his output. The leg kick damage will accumulate, compromising Simon's takedown entries. Barcelos's counter left hook becomes more effective as Simon's defensive reactions slow. If the fight reaches round 3, expect Barcelos to dominate with superior conditioning and technical sharpness.

Analysis and Key Points

• Cardio Mismatch: Barcelos's elite conditioning at 38 years old versus Simon's technical decline under sustained pressure heavily favors the Brazilian
• Leg Kick Advantage: Barcelos's step-up calf kicks will disrupt Simon's level changes, the foundation of his entire offensive game
• Counter Striking: Barcelos's left hook specifically exploits Simon's predictable inside slip pattern that Bautista exposed
• Recent Form: Simon's wins came against a short-notice replacement and before that a three-fight skid, while Barcelos beat former champion Garbrandt and undefeated prospect Talbott
• Age and Trajectory: Simon at 32 appears to be declining (1-3 in last four before recent wins), while Barcelos at 38 is on a three-fight streak against increasingly difficult competition
• Heuristic Warning: Simon was knocked out by Song Yadong in round 5 of his last loss—showing vulnerability to sustained pressure and finishing strikes

Understanding the Prediction

The model's confidence in Barcelos is driven by several key statistical factors:

• Odds increased the prediction score by 4.0—Barcelos as the underdog at +128 represents significant value given his recent form
• Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight increased the score by 3.0—Barcelos's 7.07 attempts per fight shows his wrestling pressure, even if completion rate is lower
• Recent Win Percentage decreased the score by 3.0—Simon's recent wins after a losing streak create uncertainty
• TrueSkill decreased the score by 2.0—Simon's higher TrueSkill rating (34.64 vs 31.01) reflects his overall UFC record, but doesn't capture his recent regression
• Reach increased the score by 1.0—Simon's 69" reach versus Barcelos's 67" provides a slight advantage in striking range
• Striking Defense Percentage increased the score by 1.0—Barcelos's 56% defense suggests vulnerability, but his pressure style accepts strikes to land his own

The model recognizes that while Simon has statistical advantages in some areas, Barcelos's recent performances against higher-level competition, superior cardio, and stylistic advantages create a favorable matchup.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a mixed record predicting both fighters:

Ricky Simon: The model correctly predicted his wins over Smotherman (0.56 confidence) and Shore (wrong initial pick but Simon won). However, it incorrectly favored Simon in losses to Oliveira (0.55), Bautista (0.53), and Yadong (0.32), showing the model has overestimated Simon against quality opposition. Most concerning, it favored Simon heavily against Basharat (0.68 for Basharat) but Simon won by knockout—suggesting the model struggles to account for Simon's finishing power when he's technically sound.

Raoni Barcelos: The model correctly predicted his wins over Garbrandt (0.61 confidence), Quinonez (0.56), and Jones (0.80). It incorrectly favored Talbott (0.73) in Barcelos's biggest upset, showing the model underestimated the veteran's ability to neutralize younger, athletic prospects. The model correctly predicted losses to Phillips (0.63 for Phillips) and Nurmagomedov (0.84 for Umar).

The pattern shows the model has been more reliable predicting Barcelos's performances, particularly his ability to defeat younger fighters through superior fight IQ and cardio. The model's tendency to overestimate Simon against quality opposition while underestimating Barcelos against prospects suggests the current prediction favoring Barcelos is well-founded.

Conclusion

Raoni Barcelos defeats Ricky Simon by decision in a fight that showcases the Brazilian's superior cardio, intelligent pressure, and technical maturity. Simon's predictable defensive patterns—particularly his inside slip that Bautista exploited—play directly into Barcelos's counter left hook. The leg kicks will compromise Simon's level changes, neutralizing his wrestling advantage. As the fight progresses, Barcelos's relentless pace forces Simon into the technical decline he's shown against Bautista, Oliveira, and Yadong. While Simon may find success early with his compact boxing and wrestling, Barcelos's ability to maintain output and technical sharpness across three rounds proves decisive. The 38-year-old veteran adds another scalp to his recent run, proving once again that elite cardio and fight IQ overcome youth and athleticism in the bantamweight division.