Analysis: Mayra Bueno Silva vs Jacqueline Cavalcanti

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Jacqueline Cavalcanti to Win

Score: 27
Odds:
Mayra Bueno Silva: +210
Jacqueline Cavalcanti: -280

Mayra Bueno Silva's Breakdown

Silva enters this fight on a brutal three-fight losing streak, most recently getting dominated by Jasmine Jasudavicius in February where her cardio completely collapsed. That performance exposed the critical flaw that's been haunting her recent run: catastrophic gas tank failure. Against Jasudavicius, Silva was literally helped to her corner after round two, exhausted and unable to defend takedowns. She got outstruck 164-41 and controlled for over seven minutes on the ground.

Her signature submission game—which accounts for seven of her ten career wins—has been neutralized in recent fights. The ninja choke that finished Holly Holm (later overturned) showed her opportunistic grappling, but against Raquel Pennington in her title shot, Silva's cardio betrayed her again in the championship rounds. Against Macy Chiasson, she used effective teeps and stance switches to set up high kicks, but a doctor's stoppage cut ended her night in round two.

Silva's technical toolkit includes aggressive pressure striking with body kicks, creative clinch work with knees and elbows, and a dangerous submission threat from any position. She throws hard leg kicks and uses teeps to back opponents to the fence, then switches stances to open up wheel kicks and high kicks. In the clinch, she lands brutal knees and elbows while hunting for submissions like the ninja choke or armbars. Against Stephanie Egger, she secured an armbar finish in round one, and against Lina Lansberg, she caught a kneebar when her opponent stood over her carelessly.

But Silva's recent evolution has been negative. Her striking defense sits at just 40.8%, absorbing 2.83 significant strikes per minute to her head. She's winning zero percent of her recent fights and her takedown defense has dropped to 48.8% in recent outings.

Mayra Bueno Silva's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Catastrophic Cardio Collapse (Rounds 2-3)

Silva's most glaring weakness is her complete gas tank failure in later rounds. Against Jasudavicius, she was "slow to get to her feet and was helped to her corner" after round two, with her corner telling her she'd lost both rounds. By round three, "Silva simply unable to defend" when Jasudavicius landed takedowns. Against Pennington in the title fight, Silva started strong but "seemed to tire in the later rounds," allowing Pennington to take over. This cardio issue appears linked to her weight cutting, as she's struggled at both flyweight (125) and bantamweight (135).

2. Porous Striking Defense and Complaints Under Pressure

Silva's 40.8% striking defense leaves her vulnerable to volume strikers. Against Jasudavicius, she "appeared to become frustrated, complaining that Jasudavicius had grabbed her hair" and later "complaining about a head butt." These mental lapses suggest she unravels when hurt or losing. Jasudavicius's corner noted they'd caused "a mouse over Silva's left eye" early in round one. Against Manon Fiorot, Silva absorbed heavy ground-and-pound after being taken down repeatedly, showing poor defensive awareness once compromised.

3. Takedown Defense Breakdown When Fatigued

Silva's takedown defense is 59.3% overall but drops to 48.8% in recent fights. Against Jasudavicius in round three, she was taken down "with Silva simply unable to defend" due to exhaustion. Once on her back, Silva "would prove flexible off her back, and hunt for a limb, but through all of it, Jasudavicius was able to land little ground n' pound shots." Her submission threats diminish significantly when she's tired, as opponents can maintain top control without fear of being finished.

Jacqueline Cavalcanti's Breakdown

Cavalcanti enters on a perfect 4-0 UFC run, most recently dominating Julia Avila with a clean 30-27 sweep on all scorecards. That performance showcased her evolved striking game: she used precise one-twos down the pipe, intercepting front kicks, and superior footwork to control range. Against Avila, Cavalcanti "landed a one-two on the chin and slid back from the anticipated looping counter," reading her opponent's telegraphed attacks perfectly.

Her technical arsenal centers on high-volume striking with excellent defensive awareness. Cavalcanti lands 5.73 significant strikes per minute while absorbing just 1.50 head strikes per minute, giving her a 1.35 significant strike defense-to-offense ratio. She deflects 70% of strikes thrown at her, among the best in the division. Against Nora Cornolle, she defended all eight takedown attempts while maintaining striking pressure. Against Josiane Nunes, she "circled away from Nunes' power side and fired off volume strikes," winning a split decision.

Cavalcanti's striking sequences include sharp one-twos followed by chained punches, body work to set up head strikes, and intercepting front kicks when opponents advance. She uses long left hooks to control distance and slides back from looping counters with excellent timing. Against Zarah Fairn in her UFC debut, she landed 217 significant strikes out of 392 attempts, dominating on the feet with a 127-39 total strike advantage.

Her recent evolution shows improved counter-striking awareness and better clinch management. She's learned to maintain her preferred striking range while avoiding prolonged grappling exchanges, which plays to her strengths.

Jacqueline Cavalcanti's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Susceptibility to Low Calf Kicks

Against Julia Avila, "Avila chewed up Cavalcanti's front calf, making her shake it out" with "one calf kick nearly took Cavalcanti's feet out from under her." This represents a clear defensive gap against committed leg attack specialists. Silva throws 0.73 leg kicks per minute with solid impact, and if she can establish her leg kick game early, she could compromise Cavalcanti's movement advantage.

2. Defensive Grappling and Scramble Concerns

Cavalcanti's 18.2% takedown defense overall (though improved to 47% recently) remains a significant weakness. Against Avila, after Cavalcanti caught a kick and dumped her, "the ensuing scramble resulted in Avila landing a takedown and getting on top." Pre-fight analysis noted "concerns with her defensive grappling and her ability to separate in rounds." Silva attempts 1.82 takedowns per fight with a 29.8% success rate, and if she can drag Cavalcanti down early before gassing, she could threaten submissions.

3. Lack of Finishing Instinct

Cavalcanti has zero finishes in the UFC, with all four wins coming by decision. Against Avila, she "landed some solid blows despite being unable to put Avila away" even when dominating. This lack of killer instinct means she allows opponents to survive and potentially mount comebacks. If Silva can weather early storms and drag Cavalcanti into deep waters, Cavalcanti's inability to finish could become a factor.

Style Matchup Dynamics

Cavalcanti's Striking Volume vs Silva's Cardio Collapse

Cavalcanti's high-volume striking approach directly exploits Silva's cardio issues. Cavalcanti lands 5.73 significant strikes per minute with 70% striking defense, meaning she can maintain pressure without taking excessive damage. Silva absorbs 2.83 significant strikes per minute to her head with only 40.8% striking defense. In a three-round fight, Cavalcanti's pace will force Silva to work defensively, draining her gas tank exactly as Jasudavicius did. By round two, expect Silva to slow dramatically while Cavalcanti maintains her output.

Silva's Submission Threats vs Cavalcanti's Scramble Weakness

Silva's most dangerous path to victory involves dragging Cavalcanti down early and hunting submissions before her cardio fails. Cavalcanti's 18.2% overall takedown defense and scramble concerns create openings for Silva's 1.37 submissions per fight average. If Silva can secure a ninja choke in the clinch (as she did to Holm) or catch a limb during a scramble (like the kneebar against Lansberg), she could finish early. However, Silva's recent takedown success rate is just 29.8%, and Cavalcanti defended all eight of Cornolle's attempts in her last fight.

Leg Kicks as the X-Factor

Silva's leg kicks (0.73 per minute) could compromise Cavalcanti's movement-based game. Avila's calf kicks nearly took Cavalcanti's feet out, and Silva throws harder kicks with better setup sequences using teeps and stance switches. If Silva establishes her leg kick game in round one, she could limit Cavalcanti's lateral movement and force more stationary exchanges. But this requires Silva to maintain the pace, which her recent cardio suggests she cannot do.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early Round (0-5 minutes): Silva's Best Window

Silva will come out aggressively, using teeps to back Cavalcanti to the fence and setting up high kicks with stance switches. She'll look to land hard leg kicks early and potentially drag Cavalcanti down if she can catch a kick. This is Silva's only realistic path to victory—finish early via submission or accumulate enough damage before her cardio betrays her. Cavalcanti will circle laterally, use her jab to establish range, and avoid prolonged clinch exchanges where Silva's submissions threaten.

Mid-Fight (5-10 minutes): Cavalcanti Takes Over

By the second round, Silva's cardio issues will emerge. She'll slow noticeably, her striking defense will deteriorate further, and her takedown attempts will become desperate. Cavalcanti will increase her volume, landing one-twos down the pipe and body shots as Silva's guard drops. Expect Cavalcanti to start reading Silva's telegraphed attacks and countering with precision, exactly as she did against Avila. Silva may complain to the referee about fouls, a pattern she's shown when losing.

Late Round (10-15 minutes): Complete Domination

If the fight reaches round three, Silva will be compromised. Against Jasudavicius, Silva "simply unable to defend" takedowns in round three due to exhaustion. Cavalcanti will maintain her striking pace, potentially landing takedowns of her own as Silva's defensive structure collapses. Silva's submission threats will be minimal due to fatigue, allowing Cavalcanti to control positions without fear. Expect a 30-27 sweep similar to Cavalcanti's performance against Avila.

Analysis and Key Points

• Cardio Mismatch: Silva's catastrophic gas tank failure in recent fights directly plays into Cavalcanti's high-volume, pace-pushing style. Silva was helped to her corner after round two against Jasudavicius and gassed badly against Pennington.

• Striking Defense Gap: Silva's 40.8% striking defense versus Cavalcanti's 70% creates a massive differential. Cavalcanti will land clean while avoiding Silva's counters, building a significant strike advantage.

• Submission Threat Window: Silva's only realistic path involves early submissions. Her ninja choke finished Holm, her armbar caught Egger in round one, and her kneebar submitted Lansberg. But Cavalcanti's improved recent takedown defense (47%) makes this unlikely.

• Mental Fragility: Silva's pattern of complaining to referees when losing (against Jasudavicius twice, against Chiasson) suggests mental weakness that Cavalcanti can exploit by maintaining pressure.

• Weight Class Concerns: Silva's cardio issues appear linked to weight cutting. She gassed at flyweight against Jasudavicius and at bantamweight against Pennington, suggesting systemic conditioning problems.

Understanding the Prediction

The model heavily favors Cavalcanti based on several decisive factors:

• Odds decreased the prediction score by 11 points, reflecting Cavalcanti's -280 line versus Silva's +210. The betting market recognizes Silva's decline.

• Striking Defense Percentage decreased Silva's chances by 4 points. Her 40.8% defense versus Cavalcanti's 70% creates a massive gap that the model weights heavily.

• Significant Striking Impact Differential decreased Silva's score by 3 points. Cavalcanti's +36.25 recent differential versus Silva's -10.20 shows who's winning striking exchanges.

• Recent Win Percentage decreased Silva's chances by 2 points. Silva's 0% recent win rate (0-3 in actual fights) versus Cavalcanti's 100% (4-0 UFC) is decisive.

• Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight increased Cavalcanti's score by 1 point, the only positive factor for the underdog. Silva's 1.82 attempts suggest grappling opportunities, but her 29.8% success rate limits this advantage.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a strong track record with both fighters. For Silva, the model correctly predicted her losses to Jasudavicius (71% confidence) and Pennington (69% confidence), and correctly favored her in wins over Lansberg, Egger, and Wu Yanan. The model's only miss was incorrectly favoring Silva over Chiasson (53% confidence), where Silva lost by doctor's stoppage. This 6-1 record (85.7%) on Silva predictions shows the model reads her tendencies well.

For Cavalcanti, the model is 2-0, correctly predicting her victories over Avila (80% confidence) and Nunes (75% confidence). The model recognizes Cavalcanti's consistent performance and technical advantages.

Conclusion

Cavalcanti dominates this matchup across every meaningful metric. Her 70% striking defense neutralizes Silva's offense while her 5.73 significant strikes per minute overwhelm Silva's porous 40.8% defense. Silva's only path involves early submissions, but her 29.8% recent takedown accuracy against Cavalcanti's improving 47% defense makes this unlikely. By round two, Silva's cardio will collapse as it did against Jasudavicius, leaving her defenseless against Cavalcanti's volume striking. Expect Cavalcanti to cruise to a unanimous decision victory, likely 30-27 on all cards, extending her perfect UFC record to 5-0 while Silva drops to 0-4 in her recent slide. WolfTicketsAI's 27-point confidence score reflects the technical mismatch—Cavalcanti wins decisively.