Analysis: Matt Schnell vs Joseph Morales

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Joseph Morales to Win

Score: 16
Odds:
Matt Schnell: +200
Joseph Morales: -265

Matt Schnell's Breakdown

Schnell enters this bout on a rare high note after snapping a brutal three-fight skid with a gritty decision over Jimmy Flick in April 2025. That victory showcased his signature submission defense and damaging ground-and-pound—he opened a cut on Flick's hairline with elbows from top position in Round 2 and nearly secured a body triangle choke in the third. But the win masked persistent issues that have plagued his recent run.

His submission game remains elite. Schnell's triangle choke finish of Su Mudaerji in July 2022 came after absorbing hellacious damage—he ate brutal right elbows while hurt but stayed composed enough to land a feinted level-change into a straight right that dropped his opponent, then locked up the triangle with textbook angle-cutting and leg-hooking to prevent slams. Against Brandon Royval in May 2022, Schnell actually dropped the future title contender with clean boxing before getting submitted by Royval's Gordon Ryan-style guillotine. These moments prove Schnell's dangerous even when losing.

But the losses tell a darker story. Steve Erceg knocked him unconscious in March 2024 by repeatedly countering Schnell's pressure with left hooks—Erceg would feint to draw Schnell's parries, then throw hooks around his guard. The knockout was violent, Schnell's head bouncing off the canvas. Matheus Nicolau stopped him via ground-and-pound in December 2022. Cody Durden submitted him with a power guillotine in September 2024 after Schnell shot a desperate takedown. At 35 years old with a 7-7 UFC record, Schnell's defensive liabilities are worsening, not improving.

His technical approach relies on counter left hooks against southpaws, outside slips to right uppercut-left hook combinations, and reactive wrestling. Against Flick, he reversed position from bottom half guard—a crucial scrambling skill—but he was still taken down early and controlled. His 50% takedown defense is exploitable, and his tendency to start slow nearly cost him that fight. When his cross and leg kicks don't create openings, Schnell becomes predictable, advancing behind double jabs without head movement.

Matt Schnell's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Catastrophic Takedown Defense (50% TDD): Flick completed multiple takedowns in their April fight, and Schnell spent most of the first two rounds stuck in bottom position. Against Durden, a poorly-timed shot led directly to the submission finish. His defensive wrestling has deteriorated significantly—opponents who chain wrestling attempts or use reactive doubles off his pressure will dominate positional battles.

2. Predictable Pressure Without Head Movement: Erceg's March 2024 knockout exposed this brutally. Schnell would advance behind double jabs, hands up but head stationary, eating clean left hooks repeatedly. When Erceg feinted jabs, Schnell reached to parry, creating openings for hooks around his guard. The finishing sequence—body shot to left hook—came because Schnell's defensive reactions became readable. His 49.88% striking defense is bottom-tier for the division.

3. Slow Starts and Early Vulnerability: Schnell has been hurt or controlled early in four of his last five fights. Against Nicolau, he absorbed heavy damage before the stoppage. Flick dominated the first two rounds. This pattern creates compounding problems—he falls behind on scorecards, forcing desperate tactics that lead to mistakes. When opponents pressure him early before he establishes rhythm, Schnell struggles to implement his counter-striking game.

Joseph Morales's Breakdown

Morales returned to the UFC in August 2025 after a seven-year absence, submitting heavily-favored Alibi Idiris with a second-round triangle choke at UFC 319. That performance revealed a patient, submission-focused grappler who capitalizes on opponent mistakes. Morales timed reactive double-legs every time Idiris threw naked spinning back fists—excellent pattern recognition that turned flashy striking into easy takedown entries.

His rear naked choke game is sophisticated. Against Idiris, Morales initially positioned his choking arm deep in the armpit with hands locked, then as Idiris defended, smoothly transitioned by removing his hand from the armpit and securing a full neck wrap. This bait-and-switch exploits defensive energy already committed. His triangle finish showed proper mechanics: overhook control, knee insertion opposite side, legs kicked through, then critically—cutting the angle by rotating perpendicular to strengthen the choke while hooking the inside leg to prevent slams. These aren't improvised techniques; they're trained habits.

In his UFC debut against Roberto Sanchez in August 2017, Morales demonstrated resilience. After getting taken down 30 seconds in and controlled for two minutes, he stood up and dropped Sanchez with a straight right to the ear, then finished with ground-and-pound into a rear naked choke at 3:56 of Round 1. That $50,000 Performance of the Night bonus validated his finishing instincts.

But his two UFC losses exposed glaring weaknesses. Deiveson Figueiredo—now a two-time flyweight champion—stopped him via strikes at distance in February 2018. Eric Shelton outwrestled him decisively in November 2018, landing 7 takedowns to Morales's 1 and winning a split decision despite Morales landing more total strikes (45-28). Morales attempted four guillotines from bottom position but couldn't finish any, revealing incomplete submission execution when not in dominant positions.

His striking exists primarily as a setup mechanism. Morales showed no threatening offensive striking against Idiris, functioning reactively and waiting for spinning attacks to shoot doubles. Against disciplined strikers who don't overcommit, his primary takedown entry disappears. His 23% career takedown defense is catastrophic—he was taken down early by both Sanchez and Shelton, suggesting fundamental defensive wrestling gaps.

Joseph Morales's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Non-Existent Offensive Striking: Morales landed minimal strikes against Idiris, showing no jab-cross-low kick combinations or credible offensive boxing. His striking is purely reactive—he waits for opponent mistakes rather than forcing reactions. Against Schnell's patient counter-striking, Morales will struggle to create the openings he needs for reactive doubles. If Schnell doesn't overcommit to techniques, Morales's primary takedown entry mechanism vanishes.

2. Defensive Wrestling Catastrophe (23% TDD): Both Sanchez and Shelton took Morales down early and easily. Idiris secured an inside trip in Round 1 of their recent fight. Morales's inability to defend initial takedowns puts him in dangerous positions against anyone with competent wrestling. Schnell's 40% takedown accuracy isn't elite, but against Morales's historically poor defense, he'll find success. The 7-to-1 takedown differential against Shelton represents a complete defensive breakdown.

3. Incomplete Bottom Position Submissions: While Morales threatened four guillotines against Shelton, he couldn't finish any of them. Shelton "was able to pop his head out" repeatedly, indicating technical flaws in Morales's finishing mechanics or insufficient positional control. Against Schnell—who survived Flick's submission attempts and defended Royval's omoplata before the eventual guillotine—Morales's bottom-position attacks may prove ineffective. His inability to finish from disadvantaged positions limits his offensive options when inevitably taken down.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This fight presents a fascinating technical puzzle: two submission specialists with catastrophic defensive wrestling facing each other. Schnell's 50% takedown defense versus Morales's 23% suggests both fighters will find takedown success, but the question becomes who capitalizes better from top position.

Schnell's Advantages:

Schnell's damaging ground-and-pound from top position—the elbows that cut Flick, the strikes that set up his Mudaerji finish—could overwhelm Morales's bottom game. When Schnell reversed position against Flick in Round 2, he immediately began landing effective strikes. Morales's tendency to attempt guillotines from bottom (four attempts against Shelton, all unsuccessful) plays into Schnell's submission defense strengths. Schnell survived Flick's grappling pressure and Royval's elite submission chains; Morales's incomplete finishing mechanics from bottom won't threaten him.

Schnell's counter left hooks and uppercut-left hook combinations could exploit Morales's non-existent striking offense. If Morales tries reactive doubles without setting them up, Schnell's experience timing counters against aggressive entries (see his Mudaerji performance) gives him opportunities to land clean shots during transitions.

Morales's Advantages:

Morales's reactive double-legs off opponent mistakes could capitalize on Schnell's predictable pressure. When Schnell advances behind double jabs without head movement, Morales might time level changes during those entries. Schnell's 50% takedown defense is significantly better than the opponents Morales has faced, but it's still exploitable with proper timing.

If Morales secures top position, his sophisticated rear naked choke variations and triangle setups from scrambles pose legitimate threats. Schnell's tendency to give up early takedowns (Flick, Durden) could put him in defensive positions where Morales's submission chains become dangerous. The question is whether Morales can maintain top control long enough to set up submissions, given Schnell's excellent scrambling ability.

The Critical Factor: Cardio and Late-Round Execution

Schnell's cardio advantage is massive. Against Flick, he "simply kept going" while his opponent gassed, taking over in Round 3 with back control attempts. Morales has only fought past the first round twice in the UFC (both losses), and in the Shelton fight, he was consistently outwrestled across all three rounds. If this fight reaches the later stages, Schnell's conditioning and pace will overwhelm Morales's technical submission game. Fatigue makes Morales's already-poor takedown defense even worse and compromises his submission finishing mechanics.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early Rounds (1-2): Expect a feeling-out process with both fighters respecting each other's submission threats. Morales will look for reactive doubles off any overcommitted techniques from Schnell. Schnell will use his counter left hooks and try to establish his jab-leg kick rhythm. The first takedown will be critical—whoever secures top position first gains psychological momentum. Schnell's early-fight vulnerability (hurt or controlled early in four of his last five) could give Morales an opening, but Morales's 23% takedown defense means Schnell's reactive wrestling might score first.

Mid-Fight Adjustments (Round 2): If Morales hasn't secured a submission by late Round 2, his cardio becomes questionable. Schnell's ability to reverse positions (as against Flick) will frustrate Morales's top control attempts. Expect Schnell to increase his pace, using his superior conditioning to force scrambles where his experience advantage shows. Morales's striking won't threaten Schnell enough to keep the fight standing, so grappling exchanges will dominate.

Championship Round (Round 3): This is Schnell's round. His cardio has carried him through deep water repeatedly (Mudaerji, Flick), while Morales has never shown the ability to maintain output into Round 3. Schnell's ground-and-pound accumulation and positional control will overwhelm a fatigued Morales. If Morales survives to this point without a finish, he'll be defensively compromised, unable to threaten submissions, and eating damage from top position.

Analysis and Key Points

• Schnell's ground-and-pound trumps Morales's bottom submissions: Morales couldn't finish four guillotines against Shelton; Schnell's submission defense is significantly better
• Cardio disparity decides late rounds: Schnell's proven deep-water performance versus Morales's lack of Round 3 experience
• Takedown defense failures on both sides: Both fighters will score takedowns, but Schnell's top control and damage output are more developed
• Striking mismatch favors Schnell: Morales's non-existent offensive striking gives Schnell free opportunities to establish his counter game
• Age and experience: Schnell's 17 UFC fights versus Morales's 4 total UFC appearances (7-year gap between last fights) means Schnell understands octagon pacing and championship-round execution
• Recent knockout loss warning: Schnell was violently KO'd by Erceg just 20 months ago, showing vulnerability to clean power shots, but Morales doesn't possess that striking threat

Understanding the Prediction

The model's confidence in Morales is driven almost entirely by the odds feature, which decreased the prediction score by 13 points—the betting market heavily favors Morales at -265, and the model respects that wisdom. However, examining the other factors reveals why this might be a betting market overreaction:

• Recent Win Percentage increased the score by 2 points for Morales, reflecting his August 2025 victory while Schnell was 1-3 in his previous four before the Flick win
• TrueSkill decreased the score by 2 points, suggesting the model's skill rating actually favors Schnell despite the betting odds
• Recent Significant Striking Impact Differential increased by 1 point for Morales, but this metric is skewed by his single recent UFC fight against an undisciplined opponent
• Significant Striking Output Differential increased by 1 point, again reflecting limited recent data

The model's internal metrics (TrueSkill, striking differentials) show a much closer fight than the -265 odds suggest. The betting market is likely overvaluing Morales's recent win against Idiris—a fighter who threw naked spinning back fists repeatedly—and undervaluing Schnell's experience, cardio, and technical improvements shown in the Flick fight.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a mixed record on Schnell: - Correct predictions: Flick (0.70 confidence, decision win), Erceg (0.69 confidence, KO loss), Nicolau (0.78 confidence, KO loss), Royval (0.79 confidence, submission loss) - Incorrect predictions: Durden (0.73 confidence predicted Costa, actually lost by submission), Mudaerji (0.26 confidence predicted opponent, Schnell won by submission)

The model has been correct on 4 of 6 Schnell predictions (67%), showing reliable pattern recognition for his fights. Notably, when the model predicted Schnell's opponents to win with high confidence (Erceg, Nicolau, Royval at 69-79%), those predictions hit. When it gave Schnell a chance (Flick at 70%, Mudaerji at 26% for opponent), Schnell delivered.

The model has no prediction history on Morales, creating uncertainty. His seven-year UFC absence and limited recent data (one fight) make this prediction less certain than the confidence score suggests.

Conclusion

Morales's path to victory requires an early submission finish before his cardio fails and Schnell's experience takes over. His reactive double-legs off Schnell's predictable pressure could create scrambles where his triangle and rear naked choke setups become dangerous. But Schnell's submission defense, proven against higher-level grapplers than Morales has faced, will likely neutralize those threats. Once the fight reaches Round 2 and especially Round 3, Schnell's superior conditioning, damaging ground-and-pound, and octagon experience will overwhelm Morales's limited gas tank and incomplete bottom-position game. The betting market is overreacting to Morales's recent highlight-reel finish against an undisciplined opponent, while undervaluing Schnell's veteran savvy and proven ability to win ugly fights in deep water. WolfTicketsAI predicts Joseph Morales to win, but Schnell's experience, cardio, and top control make him a live underdog with legitimate paths to a decision victory if he survives early submission attempts.