Analysis: Julio Arce vs Herbert Burns

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Julio Arce to Win

Score: 29 Odds: Julio Arce: -500 Herbert Burns: 355

Julio Arce's Breakdown

Julio Arce is entering this fight as a substantial betting favorite at -500 odds. The 33-year-old New Yorker has a solid 18-6 overall record, though he is just 2-2 in his last 4 UFC bouts.

Arce is primarily a striker, landing 4.12 significant strikes per minute at a 34.8% accuracy rate. His striking defense is quite good at 68.1%. He mixes in 2.97 head strikes and 0.93 body strikes per minute.

While primarily a striker, Arce does have some grappling acumen. He lands 0.52 takedowns per fight at a 30.8% accuracy rate. He's also shown a submission threat, with 0.39 submissions per fight over his UFC career.

One concern is that Arce was knocked out by Song Yadong in November 2021, which always raises questions about a fighter's chin going forward. However, he bounced back with a unanimous decision win over Daniel Santos in his most recent outing.

Herbert Burns's Breakdown

Herbert Burns comes in as a sizable +355 underdog against Arce. The 34-year-old Brazilian has an 11-4 overall record, but is just 2-2 in the UFC.

Burns is a skilled grappler, landing 4.39 takedowns per fight at an impressive 75% accuracy rate. He's also very dangerous with submissions, securing 2.93 submissions per fight in the UFC. On the feet, Burns only lands 1.56 significant strikes per minute.

However, Burns has been knocked out in his last two UFC fights, first by Daniel Pineda in August 2020 and more recently by Bill Algeo in July 2022. Getting finished in back-to-back bouts is always a huge red flag, especially against a solid striker like Arce.

Analysis and Key Points

This shapes up as a classic grappler vs striker matchup between Burns and Arce. Burns will no doubt look to get this fight to the mat early and often, either pulling guard or shooting for takedowns. With a 75% takedown accuracy rate and nearly 3 submissions per fight, the ground is clearly his world.

For Arce, the gameplan will be to stuff the takedowns and make Burns deal with his high-volume striking attack. Arce lands over 4 significant strikes per minute and has a strong 68% striking defense. If he can keep this fight standing, he should have a huge advantage.

The big X-factor is Burns' chin and ability to absorb punishment after suffering consecutive KO losses. If Arce can land some heavy shots early, we could see a repeat of the Algeo fight.

Understanding the Prediction

The WolfTickets model is favoring Arce fairly heavily with a score of 29, and it's not hard to see why based on the underlying metrics:

• The odds discrepancy is massive, with Arce at -500 and Burns at +355. This big betting line moved the model score 18 points in Arce's favor.

• Arce has a sizable striking advantage, landing 12.7 more significant strikes per minute and absorbing 15 fewer strikes than Burns. These striking differentials increased the model score by 8 points for Arce.

• Arce's striking defense is much better at 65.4% compared to just 19.3% for Burns. This 46 percentage point edge in defense moved the score 4 more points for Arce.

• Arce has been more successful recently, winning 33% of his last few fights compared to just 33% for Burns recently. This added 2 points to Arce's score.

So in totality, the vast advantage Arce has in the striking department, combined with the huge betting odds in his favor, are the key drivers of the WolfTickets prediction.

Past Model Performance

The WolfTickets model has limited data to work with for both fighters. For Arce, it correctly predicted his loss to Montel Jackson last time out. But for Burns, the model incorrectly picked him to beat Bill Algeo in his most recent fight.

With just one past prediction each, it's hard to have a ton of confidence in the AI's track record for either man. This adds more uncertainty to an already difficult style matchup.

Conclusion

Overall, WolfTickets predicts a Julio Arce victory and the underlying data supports that pick. Arce is the much better and more technically sound striker, and if he can maintain distance and defend takedowns, he should be able to pick Burns apart on the feet.

However, Burns is a world-class grappler and if he can drag Arce into his world, he could quickly turn the tables with a submission. Arce's takedown defense will likely be the biggest key to the fight.

The model has limited history predicting these two fighters, so some caution is warranted on the betting front. But if Arce can avoid the ground game of Burns, he should have an excellent chance of getting his hand raised.