Analysis: Andre Petroski vs Jacob Malkoun

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Jacob Malkoun to Win

Score: 15 Odds: Andre Petroski: +164 Jacob Malkoun: -215

Andre Petroski's Breakdown

Andre Petroski is a formidable middleweight with a 10-3 record, but he's coming off a devastating KO/TKO loss to Michel Pereira in his last fight. This recent knockout raises some concerns about his chin and ability to withstand heavy strikes.

Despite the loss, Petroski had been on a solid run prior, with decision wins over Gerald Meerschaert and Wellington Turman, showcasing his well-rounded game. He averages 4.91 strikes landed per minute and 3.61 significant strikes, with a striking accuracy of 57%. His grappling is also strong, with 2.49 submissions per fight and 4.48 takedowns at a 55% accuracy.

Jacob Malkoun's Breakdown

Jacob Malkoun is 7-3 but was shockingly disqualified in his last fight against Cody Brundage. Prior to that though, he scored an impressive decision win over Nick Maximov.

Malkoun's strength is clearly his grappling. He attempts a whopping 16.27 takedowns per fight, securing 7.20 of them (44% accuracy). On the feet, he's competent with 7.95 strikes and 3.89 significant strikes landed per minute, both at a high accuracy of 67% and 57% respectively. Defensively he's solid too, absorbing only 2.56 significant strikes per minute.

Analysis and Key Points

This shapes up as a classic grappler vs grappler matchup. Both men will likely look to implement their wrestling and jiu-jitsu rather than engaging in a slugfest on the feet.

Malkoun seems to have the grappling edge on paper. He attempts and secures takedowns at a much higher clip than Petroski, and historically has had more success with his wrestling in the UFC. If he can get Petroski down consistently, he could ride out a decision or hunt for a submission.

Petroski's path to victory likely involves keeping the fight standing and using his slight edge in striking output to outland Malkoun. He'll need to maintain distance and defend takedowns effectively. The knockout loss in his last fight is concerning though and could impact his confidence.

Overall, Malkoun's grappling prowess and the model's past success in predicting his fights make him a justified favorite here. However, Petroski is dangerous and if he can keep it standing, he could definitely score the upset.

Understanding the Prediction

Let's unpack some key factors from the SHAP data that influenced the model's prediction:

The betting odds have shifted the prediction significantly (-10 points) in Malkoun's favor. This aligns with the betting market's assessment of Malkoun as a moderate -215 favorite.

Malkoun averages a staggering 15.58 takedown attempts per fight recently, compared to just 9.55 for Petroski. This discrepancy shifted the prediction by 3 points in Malkoun's favor given his clear wrestling advantage.

Interestingly, Petroski's higher significant striking impact shifted the prediction slightly in his favor by 1 point. This suggests if he can keep it standing, he may have an edge in damage output.

Malkoun's 4-inch reach advantage benefited his prediction by 1 point. At range, he may be able to strike more effectively than Petroski.

Overall, the betting odds and Malkoun's massive advantage in takedowns attempted per fight seem to be the key factors tilting the prediction in his favor, with Petroski's striking impact keeping it reasonably close.

Past Model Performance

The model has a solid track record with Malkoun, correctly predicting 2 of his last 3 fights. The lone miss was the DQ loss to Brundage, which can likely be discounted as a fluke occurrence. This breeds confidence in the model's prediction for Malkoun here.

With Petroski, the model's been less consistent. It's 2 for 4 in his last 4 fights, incorrectly picking him to lose twice as an underdog. The model did correctly favor Pereira over him last fight, but Petroski losing by KO is worrying. There's less certainty in the model's assessment of Petroski overall.

Conclusion

All things considered, WolfTicketsAI's prediction of a Jacob Malkoun victory looks justified. His elite grappling and takedown ability should be the difference-maker here, and the model's past success in predicting his fights breeds confidence.

However, Andre Petroski is a live underdog with dangerous striking and solid wrestling of his own. If he can keep the fight standing and land heavy shots, he could definitely score the upset KO.

Overall though, the smart money looks to be on Malkoun getting it done with his suffocating grappling game. He should be able to control Petroski on the mat and either grind out a decision or find a submission. While not a lock, Malkoun to win is a solid betting proposition based on the matchup and the model's analysis.