Analysis: Zachary Reese vs Dusko Todorovic

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Zachary Reese to Win

Score: 16
Odds:
Zachary Reese: -265
Dusko Todorovic: +200

Zachary Reese's Breakdown

Reese brings a dynamic striking arsenal with deceptive power and excellent counter-punching ability to this middleweight clash. His technical approach revolves around calculated striking with precise timing and devastating body work.

Reese's signature techniques include:

1. Left body kick sequence - Reese employs an intelligent kick sequencing technique where he first targets the opponent's arm/guard with a left kick, establishing a defensive reaction, before immediately following with a second left kick placed slightly lower to bypass the guard and impact the ribs or liver area. This was devastatingly effective against Jose Medina, where he systematically broke down his opponent with repeated body kicks.

2. Counter left hook - Reese's most dangerous weapon is his counter left hook, which he delivers with precision when opponents close distance. Against Julian Marquez, Reese created a subtle lateral step to his left as Marquez pressed forward, delivering a perfectly timed left hand counter that landed flush for the knockout.

3. Shoulder-feint to southpaw left straight - Reese frequently creates openings by faking his left shoulder from orthodox stance, stepping off to his left while switching to southpaw, and delivering a powerful left straight. This sequence allows him to slip incoming strikes while simultaneously setting up his counter, as seen in his bout with Azamat Bekoev.

Reese's technical evolution has been impressive. While he once relied more heavily on high-volume combinations, he has transitioned to a more efficient technical approach that emphasizes defensive positioning and counter opportunities. His footwork has become more refined, allowing him to create subtle angles during exchanges rather than moving straight backward when pressured.

Zachary Reese's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. High stance vulnerability to takedowns - Reese maintains a relatively high stance during pressure sequences, walking forward rather than maintaining a lower, more defensively sound posture. This creates opportunities for opponents to shoot under his punches and secure takedowns. Against Bekoev, this vulnerability was repeatedly exploited as Bekoev found success changing levels during Reese's forward pressure.

2. Defensive lapses during retreating sequences - When backing up, Reese has a tendency to drop his lead hand while reaching for kicks, creating momentary openings for straight punches. Specifically, when expecting low kicks and attempting to check or catch them, he leaves his head exposed to follow-up combinations. This vulnerability was exposed in his loss to Cody Brundage.

3. Overcommitment to submission attempts - Reese's most glaring technical vulnerability is his over-commitment to submission attempts when position isn't secure. Against Brundage, he held onto an armbar attempt even after being elevated, leading to a slam finish. This demonstrates a "sunk cost fallacy" approach to submissions - once invested in a potential finish, he's reluctant to abandon it even when the position becomes precarious.

Dusko Todorovic's Breakdown

Todorovic is a pressure fighter with technically sound striking fundamentals and a developing clinch game. His approach centers around methodical combination boxing and intelligent pressure that gradually builds in intensity as fights progress.

Todorovic's signature techniques include:

1. Pressure-based combination boxing - Todorovic relies on compact boxing sequences where he prefers to work in mid-range exchanges. He typically starts with a jab-cross sequence before adding hooks, particularly targeting the body. Against Maki Pitolo, this body work proved crucial, gradually slowing Pitolo's movement and diminishing his explosive counters.

2. Clinch control and dirty boxing - In the clinch, Todorovic demonstrates excellent dirty boxing fundamentals, utilizing short hooks and uppercuts when opponents are pressed against the cage. Against Jordan Wright, he maintained proper posture (hips in, standing tall) while continuing to attack the body from the clinch.

3. Tie dump technique - Todorovic employs a highly effective tie dump (similar to Sui Koi Ashi in judo) where he steps to the side, places his foot in front of his opponent's ankle, and pulls them forward, forcing them to either stumble or fall. This technique allows him to either break the clinch advantageously or send his opponent to their back, as demonstrated effectively against Wright.

Todorovic's technical evolution has been inconsistent. While he's shown improvement in his clinch work and body attacks, his defensive awareness during transitions remains problematic. Since his first professional loss to Punahele Soriano, Todorovic has gone just 2-4 in his last six fights, showing concerning regression rather than evolution.

Dusko Todorovic's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Rush entries without proper defense - Todorovic has a dangerous tendency to bum rush opponents when feeling pressured, leaving his chin exposed during entries. Against Mansur Abdul-Malik, this resulted in him getting caught clean while charging forward without proper defensive structure.

2. Defensive blindspots during clinch breaks - Todorovic shows a significant vulnerability during clinch separation sequences. When breaking from the clinch, he maintains his underhook position but fails to protect his head adequately. This creates a dangerous blind spot where he cannot see strikes coming as he transitions from grappling to striking range. This exact vulnerability was exploited by Chidi Njokuani, who timed a precise elbow as Todorovic was focused on maintaining his underhook position during the clinch break.

3. Durability issues - Todorovic has shown vulnerability to power shots, particularly when exchanging in the pocket. His five losses have included four KO/TKO defeats (to Punahele Soriano, Chidi Njokuani, Christian Leroy Duncan, and Mansur Abdul-Malik), demonstrating a concerning pattern of fragility when hit cleanly.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This matchup heavily favors Reese's counter-striking and body attack game against Todorovic's pressure-based approach. Several key technical dynamics will likely determine the outcome:

• Counter opportunities: Todorovic's tendency to rush forward without proper defense creates perfect openings for Reese's counter left hook. The same technical sequence that finished Julian Marquez could be devastating against Todorovic, who has shown vulnerability to clean counter shots.

• Body work effectiveness: Reese's systematic body attacks, particularly his double-kick setup to the body, will be extremely effective against Todorovic, who has shown vulnerability to body shots in previous fights. Punahele Soriano finished Todorovic with a liver shot, demonstrating this specific weakness.

• Clinch exchanges: While Todorovic excels in the clinch, his defensive vulnerability during clinch breaks plays directly into Reese's counter-striking ability. Reese can land clean counter shots as Todorovic attempts to disengage from clinch positions.

• Defensive awareness: Todorovic's defensive lapses during forward pressure will be exploited by Reese's ability to create subtle angles and counter with power, similar to how Christian Leroy Duncan capitalized on Todorovic's linear movement with a spinning backfist.

Fight Phase Analysis

• Early rounds: Expect Todorovic to establish forward pressure early, looking to back Reese against the fence where he can unleash combinations or initiate clinch exchanges. Reese will likely employ his counter-striking approach, looking to time Todorovic's entries with his left hook or body kicks. Reese's ability to create angles while countering will be crucial in neutralizing Todorovic's pressure.

• Mid-fight adjustments: As the fight progresses, Todorovic's pressure will likely intensify, potentially leading to more reckless entries as he attempts to close distance. This is where Reese's counter-striking will become most dangerous. Todorovic's history suggests he becomes more vulnerable as fights progress, particularly when his initial gameplan isn't working.

• Late rounds: If the fight reaches the championship rounds, Reese's body work will have accumulated significant damage, diminishing Todorovic's movement and offensive output. Todorovic has shown cardio issues in previous fights, with his technique deteriorating significantly as fights progress. This will create more openings for Reese's counter strikes and increase the likelihood of a late stoppage.

Analysis and Key Points

• Durability concerns: Todorovic has been knocked out in four of his five losses, showing vulnerability to clean power shots. Reese has demonstrated one-shot knockout power, particularly with his counter left hook.

• Recent form: Todorovic has lost four of his last six fights, with three coming by knockout. Reese has won three of his last four, with two finishes.

• Technical matchup: Reese's counter-striking style is perfectly suited to exploit Todorovic's defensive vulnerabilities during forward pressure and clinch breaks.

• Body attack advantage: Reese's systematic body attacks will be particularly effective against Todorovic, who has shown vulnerability to body shots in previous fights.

• Warning sign: Reese was recently knocked out by Azamat Bekoev in January 2025, raising questions about his own durability.

Understanding the Prediction

• Odds increased the model's score by 16.0, showing strong betting market confidence in Reese
• Significant striking impact differential increased the prediction score by 2.0, reflecting Reese's power advantage
• Striking defense percentage decreased the score by 2.0, indicating some defensive concerns for Reese
• Recent significant striking impact differential increased the score by 1.0, showing Reese's recent striking effectiveness
• Recent win percentage increased the score by 1.0, reflecting Reese's better recent form
• Reach increased the score by 1.0, giving Reese a 3-inch reach advantage

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a mixed record predicting these fighters. The model incorrectly predicted Reese would lose to Julian Marquez, who Reese knocked out in the first round. It also incorrectly predicted Reese would defeat Sedriques Dumas, who knocked Reese out in the first round.

For Todorovic, the model has been more accurate, correctly predicting his win over Jordan Wright and his loss to Chidi Njokuani. This suggests the model may have a better read on Todorovic's performances than Reese's.

Conclusion

Zachary Reese has the technical tools to exploit Dusko Todorovic's defensive vulnerabilities. Todorovic's tendency to rush forward without proper defense and his vulnerability during clinch breaks play directly into Reese's counter-striking strengths. While both fighters have shown defensive issues, Todorovic's concerning pattern of knockout losses makes him the more vulnerable fighter in this matchup. Reese's systematic body attacks and precise counter-striking should allow him to control the fight and potentially find a finish. WolfTicketsAI predicts Zachary Reese will emerge victorious in this middleweight clash.