Analysis: Davey Grant vs Da'Mon Blackshear

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Da'Mon Blackshear to Win

Score: 20
Odds:
Davey Grant: +220
Da'Mon Blackshear: -295

Davey Grant's Breakdown

Grant brings a unique blend of technical striking and opportunistic submission skills that have served him well throughout his 11-year UFC tenure. His signature technique remains the overhand right, which he sets up beautifully through feints and angular movement. Against Ramon Taveras, Grant showcased his evolved defensive counter-striking, fading backward from left straights before countering with devastating right hooks to the body. His body work arsenal is particularly impressive—mixing right front kicks, round kicks, left side kicks, and teep kicks to systematically break down opponents.

Grant's most dangerous weapon might be his spinning back fist, which he times perfectly when opponents signal they're okay after exchanges. The knockout of Louis Smolka demonstrated his improved pivoting and angular movement, constantly turning opponents rather than backing straight up. At 38, Grant has refined his technical approach, blending conventional techniques with his unorthodox power striking in roughly a 70-30 split. His submission game peaked with the inverted triangle (sankaku) that finished Raphael Assunção, showing he can capitalize on scrambles when opponents least expect it.

Davey Grant's Technical Vulnerabilities

Grant's most glaring weakness is his vulnerability to high-volume pressure fighters who can back him against the fence. Against Adrian Yanez, Grant struggled when faced with aggressive striking combinations and couldn't establish his preferred counter-striking rhythm. His defensive footwork becomes problematic when pressured, as he tends to retreat in straight lines rather than circling laterally.

His takedown defense has shown cracks against persistent wrestlers. The submission loss to Manny Bermudez in Round 1 highlighted how quickly Grant can be overwhelmed by aggressive grapplers who don't give him time to establish his striking game. When taken down, Grant sometimes makes poor defensive decisions—like the fence grab against Assunção that cost him a point and nearly derailed his comeback.

Grant also shows vulnerability to southpaw opponents who can disrupt his timing with stance switches and awkward angles. His wide stance when loading up on power punches makes him susceptible to leg kicks and takedown entries from crafty opponents.

Da'Mon Blackshear's Breakdown

Blackshear has evolved into a complete mixed martial artist with devastating submission skills anchored by his signature rear-naked choke and Kimura attacks. His methodical approach to grappling is exemplified by his finish of Cody Gibson, where he patiently worked from side control, waiting for Gibson's underhook escape attempt before immediately isolating the arm for a fight-ending Kimura. Against Cody Stamann, Blackshear showcased his striking evolution under Henry Hooft, using innovative hand traps—slapping down Stamann's right hand before firing straight rights down the middle.

His most spectacular technique is the double-pump flying knee, which he timed perfectly against Stamann when his opponent was trapped against the fence. Blackshear's stance-switching creates constant problems for opponents, as he'll fight southpaw while striking but switch to orthodox when pursuing takedowns. His submission arsenal extends beyond the basics—the rare twister finish over Jose Johnson demonstrated his technical depth and patience in capitalizing on defensive errors.

Da'Mon Blackshear's Technical Vulnerabilities

Blackshear's defensive footwork remains his biggest liability. When pressured, he backs straight up rather than circling laterally, making him vulnerable to being trapped against the fence. Cody Gibson exploited this early, landing fluid striking combinations while Blackshear looked "like a rag in the breeze" during high-volume exchanges.

His takedown entries become telegraphed when fatigued, with his level changes becoming more pronounced and predictable in later rounds. The knockout loss to Montel Jackson highlighted his vulnerability to explosive strikers who can catch him before he establishes his grappling game. When his initial takedown attempts fail, Blackshear often remains in neutral clinch positions without effective offense, allowing opponents to score with short strikes or disengage.

His upright striking stance, while strategic for counter-striking, leaves him exposed to overhand rights and power shots from opponents who can time his defensive reactions.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This matchup presents a fascinating clash between Grant's counter-striking approach and Blackshear's pressure grappling. Grant's improved angular movement and pivoting could neutralize Blackshear's tendency to back opponents straight to the fence. However, Blackshear's stance-switching and hand trap techniques could disrupt Grant's timing on his signature overhand right.

Grant's body work arsenal—particularly his teep kicks and side kicks—could exploit Blackshear's upright stance and prevent him from closing distance for takedowns. Conversely, Blackshear's submission threats could make Grant hesitant to engage in scrambles, limiting his opportunistic grappling game.

The key technical battle will be Blackshear's ability to time takedowns against Grant's improved defensive movement. Grant's experience against southpaws like Daniel Marcos gives him a blueprint for handling Blackshear's stance switches, but Blackshear's submission skills are far more advanced than previous opponents Grant has faced.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early rounds favor Grant's counter-striking, as his technical improvements and body work could accumulate damage while Blackshear searches for takedown opportunities. Grant's ability to pivot and create angles should help him avoid being backed to the fence where Blackshear is most dangerous.

Mid-fight adjustments will be crucial. If Blackshear can't establish his grappling game early, he may become more desperate with his takedown attempts, potentially walking into Grant's power shots. However, if Blackshear secures even one takedown, his submission skills could end the fight immediately.

Championship rounds could favor the younger Blackshear, as Grant has shown signs of slowing in later rounds throughout his career. Blackshear's methodical grappling approach is designed to capitalize on fatigue-induced defensive errors.

Analysis and Key Points

• Grant's counter-striking vs Blackshear's pressure: Grant's improved movement could neutralize Blackshear's fence-backing strategy • Submission threat differential: Blackshear's advanced submission game far exceeds any grappler Grant has recently faced • Age and activity: Grant's 18-month layoff and 38-year-old body against Blackshear's recent activity and youth • Stance matchup: Grant's experience against southpaws like Marcos provides defensive blueprint against Blackshear's switches • Finishing ability: Both fighters have shown ability to end fights suddenly—Grant with strikes, Blackshear with submissions

Understanding the Prediction

The model heavily favors Blackshear based on several key factors. Odds decreased the prediction score by 14 points, reflecting Grant as the betting underdog. Recent Win Percentage and TrueSkill both decreased the score by 2 and 1 points respectively, indicating Blackshear's superior recent form. However, Recent Significant Striking Impact Differential and Win Streak Difference each increased the score by 1 point, suggesting Grant's striking improvements have been noted. The Striking Defense Percentage favoring Blackshear by 1 point reflects his ability to avoid damage while closing distance for takedowns.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a mixed record with both fighters. For Grant, the model correctly predicted his wins over Ramon Taveras and Louis Smolka, but incorrectly favored Raphael Assunção in their fight where Grant secured a stunning submission victory. For Blackshear, the model has been more reliable, correctly predicting his submission wins over Cody Gibson and Cody Stamann, while also correctly predicting his losses to Montel Jackson and Mario Bautista. This suggests the model has a better read on Blackshear's current trajectory.

Conclusion

While Grant's technical improvements and counter-striking ability make him dangerous, Blackshear's submission skills and recent momentum make him the rightful favorite. Grant's vulnerability to pressure fighters and Blackshear's ability to capitalize on defensive errors in grappling exchanges create a clear path to victory for "Da Monster." WolfTicketsAI's prediction of Blackshear by submission appears well-founded given the technical matchup dynamics.