Sergei Pavlovich vs. Alexander Volkov - UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov Results & AI Breakdown

Winner: Alexander Volkov by Decision - Unanimous

Fight Info:
Location: Riyadh, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
Elevation: 612.00m
Weight Class: Heavyweight
Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org…

The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.

The predictions below are shown in dark grey if they were correct, incorxrect predictions are shown in red.
Predictions
Fighter
WolfTicketsAI
Profit
Plain
Odds When Predicted

Weighted Scoring Report

Fight Analysis

Analysis: Sergei Pavlovich vs Alexander Volkov

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Sergei Pavlovich to Win

Score: 10.0 Odds: Sergei Pavlovich: -215 Alexander Volkov: 175

Sergei Pavlovich: The Aggressive Powerhouse

Sergei Pavlovich is a formidable heavyweight knockout artist, with an impressive 90% win rate. He has won his last 4 UFC fights, all by first-round KO/TKO, showcasing his devastating striking power. Pavlovich lands a staggering 8.21 significant strikes per minute while absorbing only 4.52, giving him a substantial +3.69 striking differential.

At 6'3" and 259 lbs, Pavlovich is a compact yet powerful heavyweight. His ability to close the distance and unleash furious combinations against the fence is his bread and butter. With a Greco-Roman wrestling background, he uses relentless pressure to overwhelm opponents, constantly pushing forward and looking for the finish.

However, Pavlovich's Achilles' heel seems to be his cardio. As fights progress, he tends to fade, compromising his mental toughness and leaving him vulnerable to counterattacks. His recent loss to Tom Aspinall exposed this weakness, as he was unable to cope with Aspinall's movement and output.

Alexander Volkov: The Rangy Technician

Alexander Volkov is one of the most experienced heavyweights on the roster, bringing a wealth of technical prowess. At 6'7" with an 80" reach, he utilizes his length and striking skills to keep opponents at bay.

Volkov is a high-volume, technically sound striker, landing 5.84 significant strikes per minute at a very solid 62.7% accuracy rate recently. He doesn't possess one-punch KO power like Pavlovich, but steadily breaks opponents down with volume and variety, fighting behind his jab and mixing in kicks. Volkov's game plan revolves around maintaining distance, using his footwork and boxing to pick apart opponents from the outside.

While primarily a striker, Volkov is competent in all areas. He lands 0.65 takedowns per fight at a strong 74.7% accuracy rate and has submitted dangerous strikers like Fabricio Werdum and Tai Tuivasa in the UFC. His takedown defense is solid at 61.7%.

However, Volkov's kryptonite lies in his vulnerability against relentless grapplers who can close the distance and negate his reach advantage. Determined wrestlers who can force him against the cage or take him down can nullify his striking prowess.

The Clash of Styles

This fight promises to be a clash of contrasting styles:

  • Pavlovich will undoubtedly look to pressure Volkov from the opening bell, cutting off the cage and unleashing his trademark aggression.
  • Volkov must utilize his footwork, movement, and technical striking to keep Pavlovich at bay and avoid being trapped against the fence.
  • If Pavlovich can weather Volkov's early strikes and force the action into close quarters, he could overwhelm the taller man with his relentless output and wrestling.
  • If Volkov can maintain distance and pick his shots, he could potentially outpoint Pavlovich over the course of the fight.

Understanding the Prediction

The key factors that seem to be swaying the model heavily in Pavlovich's favor:

  • Odds: Pavlovich being a significant -215 betting favorite added a huge +16 points to his score
  • Striking Impact Differentials: While these slightly favor Volkov, they only subtracted 2 points each from Pavlovich's score
  • Reach: Pavlovich's 4-inch reach advantage added 2 points
  • Other factors like striking accuracy, defense, and recent performance had minor +1/-1 impacts

So it appears the model is heavily weighing the oddsmakers' perspective, perhaps due to Pavlovich's impressive recent run and one-punch finishing ability, while not giving quite as much credit to Volkov's statistical advantages and well-rounded skillset.

Past Model Performance

Pavlovich: - WolfTickets predicted him to beat Tuivasa, Lewis, and Abdurakhimov, which all came true via R1 KO/TKO.
- However, it incorrectly picked him over Tom Aspinall and Curtis Blaydes.

Volkov: - The model correctly predicted his last 3 wins over Tuivasa, Romanov, and Rozenstruik. - It also correctly took Aspinall to beat him.

So the model has a good but imperfect record on both fighters. Its misses on Pavlovich against elite competition could suggest some vulnerability here against a cagey vet like Volkov.

Conclusion

This is a fascinating crossroads fight between two of the best heavyweights in the world.

Pavlovich has looked like an absolute wrecking machine lately with his terrifying power and killer instinct. If he can close the distance early and unleash his furious combinations against the fence, he could overwhelm Volkov with his relentless aggression.

However, Volkov possesses the more well-rounded and adaptable skillset. His length, technically sound striking, and ability to maintain distance give him a clear path to victory if he can weather the early storm. If Volkov can avoid being trapped against the cage and turn this into a technical kickboxing match, the momentum should swing his way as Pavlovich fades.

The model's clear lean towards Pavlovich is understandable given his recent dominance and the oddsmakers' perspective. But it may be overstating things a bit against such a seasoned and savvy opponent. At +175 underdog odds, Volkov feels like a solid value bet.

Ultimately, this feels like a true pick'em fight that hinges on the clash of styles. For Pavlovich, it's likely 1st round KO or bust. For Volkov, it's about dragging him into deep waters and drowning him with volume.

Stat Breakdown

Stat Sergei Pavlovich Alexander Volkov
Main Stats
Age 32 35
Height 75" 79"
Reach 84" 80"
Win Percentage 90.00% 78.72%
Wins 18 38
Losses 3 10
Wins at Weight Class 6 11
Losses at Weight Class 1 4
Striking Stats
Striking Accuracy 49.51% 61.80%
Significant Striking Accuracy 48.34% 57.47%
Strikes Landed Per Minute 8.604 6.839
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute 8.210 5.459
Knockdowns per Fight 5.904 0.322
Striking Impact Differential 8.38% 35.40%
Significant Striking Impact Differential 8.00% 27.73%
Striking Output Differential 15.13% 38.07%
Significant Striking Output Differential 14.88% 30.20%
Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 66.67% 58.68%
Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 69.18% 70.37%
Striking Defense Percentage 55.19% 54.37%
Takedown and Submission Stats
Submissions per Fight 0.000 0.081
Takedowns per Fight 0.000 0.564
Takedowns Attempted per Fight 1.687 0.887
Takedown Defense 33.33% 33.87%
Takedown Accuracy 0.00% 63.64%
Head Stats
Head Strikes Landed per Minute 7.648 3.433
Head Strikes Attempted per Minute 16.026 7.033
Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute 2.474 1.773
Body Stats
Body Strikes Landed per Minute 0.506 1.112
Body Strikes Attempted per Minute 0.900 1.392
Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.844 0.693
Leg Stats
Leg Strikes Landed per Minute 0.056 0.913
Leg kicks Attempted per Minute 0.056 1.075
Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute 1.293 0.758
Clinch Stats
Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute 1.012 0.510
Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute 1.912 0.741
Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.450 0.199
Sergei Pavlovich History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
Nov. 11, 2023 UFC Interim Heavyweight Title Sergei Pavlovich Tom Aspinall Tom Aspinall
April 22, 2023 Heavyweight Sergei Pavlovich Curtis Blaydes Sergei Pavlovich
Dec. 3, 2022 Heavyweight Tai Tuivasa Sergei Pavlovich Sergei Pavlovich
July 30, 2022 Heavyweight Derrick Lewis Sergei Pavlovich Sergei Pavlovich
March 19, 2022 Heavyweight Shamil Abdurakhimov Sergei Pavlovich Sergei Pavlovich
Oct. 26, 2019 Heavyweight Maurice Greene Sergei Pavlovich Sergei Pavlovich
April 20, 2019 Heavyweight Sergei Pavlovich Marcelo Golm Sergei Pavlovich
Nov. 24, 2018 Heavyweight Alistair Overeem Sergei Pavlovich Alistair Overeem
Alexander Volkov History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
Sept. 9, 2023 Heavyweight Tai Tuivasa Alexander Volkov Alexander Volkov
March 11, 2023 Heavyweight Alexander Volkov Alexandr Romanov Alexander Volkov
June 4, 2022 Heavyweight Alexander Volkov Jairzinho Rozenstruik Alexander Volkov
March 19, 2022 Heavyweight Alexander Volkov Tom Aspinall Tom Aspinall
Oct. 30, 2021 Heavyweight Alexander Volkov Marcin Tybura Alexander Volkov
June 26, 2021 Heavyweight Ciryl Gane Alexander Volkov Ciryl Gane
Feb. 6, 2021 Heavyweight Alistair Overeem Alexander Volkov Alexander Volkov
Oct. 24, 2020 Heavyweight Alexander Volkov Walt Harris Alexander Volkov
June 20, 2020 Heavyweight Curtis Blaydes Alexander Volkov Curtis Blaydes
Nov. 9, 2019 Heavyweight Alexander Volkov Greg Hardy Alexander Volkov
Oct. 6, 2018 Heavyweight Derrick Lewis Alexander Volkov Derrick Lewis
March 17, 2018 Heavyweight Fabricio Werdum Alexander Volkov Alexander Volkov
Sept. 2, 2017 Heavyweight Alexander Volkov Stefan Struve Alexander Volkov
April 15, 2017 Heavyweight Alexander Volkov Roy Nelson Alexander Volkov
Nov. 19, 2016 Heavyweight Timothy Johnson Alexander Volkov Alexander Volkov