The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.
Basic Prediction
This prediction was made before July 20th, 2024 and does not include detailed insights.
Score: 10.0 Odds: Sergei Pavlovich: -215 Alexander Volkov: 175
Sergei Pavlovich is a formidable heavyweight knockout artist, with an impressive 90% win rate. He has won his last 4 UFC fights, all by first-round KO/TKO, showcasing his devastating striking power. Pavlovich lands a staggering 8.21 significant strikes per minute while absorbing only 4.52, giving him a substantial +3.69 striking differential.
At 6'3" and 259 lbs, Pavlovich is a compact yet powerful heavyweight. His ability to close the distance and unleash furious combinations against the fence is his bread and butter. With a Greco-Roman wrestling background, he uses relentless pressure to overwhelm opponents, constantly pushing forward and looking for the finish.
However, Pavlovich's Achilles' heel seems to be his cardio. As fights progress, he tends to fade, compromising his mental toughness and leaving him vulnerable to counterattacks. His recent loss to Tom Aspinall exposed this weakness, as he was unable to cope with Aspinall's movement and output.
Alexander Volkov is one of the most experienced heavyweights on the roster, bringing a wealth of technical prowess. At 6'7" with an 80" reach, he utilizes his length and striking skills to keep opponents at bay.
Volkov is a high-volume, technically sound striker, landing 5.84 significant strikes per minute at a very solid 62.7% accuracy rate recently. He doesn't possess one-punch KO power like Pavlovich, but steadily breaks opponents down with volume and variety, fighting behind his jab and mixing in kicks. Volkov's game plan revolves around maintaining distance, using his footwork and boxing to pick apart opponents from the outside.
While primarily a striker, Volkov is competent in all areas. He lands 0.65 takedowns per fight at a strong 74.7% accuracy rate and has submitted dangerous strikers like Fabricio Werdum and Tai Tuivasa in the UFC. His takedown defense is solid at 61.7%.
However, Volkov's kryptonite lies in his vulnerability against relentless grapplers who can close the distance and negate his reach advantage. Determined wrestlers who can force him against the cage or take him down can nullify his striking prowess.
This fight promises to be a clash of contrasting styles:
The key factors that seem to be swaying the model heavily in Pavlovich's favor:
So it appears the model is heavily weighing the oddsmakers' perspective, perhaps due to Pavlovich's impressive recent run and one-punch finishing ability, while not giving quite as much credit to Volkov's statistical advantages and well-rounded skillset.
Pavlovich:
- WolfTickets predicted him to beat Tuivasa, Lewis, and Abdurakhimov, which all came true via R1 KO/TKO.
- However, it incorrectly picked him over Tom Aspinall and Curtis Blaydes.
Volkov: - The model correctly predicted his last 3 wins over Tuivasa, Romanov, and Rozenstruik. - It also correctly took Aspinall to beat him.
So the model has a good but imperfect record on both fighters. Its misses on Pavlovich against elite competition could suggest some vulnerability here against a cagey vet like Volkov.
This is a fascinating crossroads fight between two of the best heavyweights in the world.
Pavlovich has looked like an absolute wrecking machine lately with his terrifying power and killer instinct. If he can close the distance early and unleash his furious combinations against the fence, he could overwhelm Volkov with his relentless aggression.
However, Volkov possesses the more well-rounded and adaptable skillset. His length, technically sound striking, and ability to maintain distance give him a clear path to victory if he can weather the early storm. If Volkov can avoid being trapped against the cage and turn this into a technical kickboxing match, the momentum should swing his way as Pavlovich fades.
The model's clear lean towards Pavlovich is understandable given his recent dominance and the oddsmakers' perspective. But it may be overstating things a bit against such a seasoned and savvy opponent. At +175 underdog odds, Volkov feels like a solid value bet.
Ultimately, this feels like a true pick'em fight that hinges on the clash of styles. For Pavlovich, it's likely 1st round KO or bust. For Volkov, it's about dragging him into deep waters and drowning him with volume.
Stat | Sergei Pavlovich | Alexander Volkov | Weight Class Average | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Main Stats | ||||
Age | 32 | 35 | 34 | |
Height | 75" | 79" | 75" | |
Reach | 84" | 80" | 78" | |
Win Percentage | 90.00% | 78.72% | 80.17% | |
Wins | 18 | 38 | ||
Losses | 3 | 10 | ||
Wins at Weight Class | 6 | 11 | ||
Losses at Weight Class | 1 | 4 | ||
Striking Stats | ||||
Striking Accuracy | 49.51% | 61.80% | 51.01% | |
Significant Striking Accuracy | 48.34% | 57.47% | 45.90% | |
Strikes Landed Per Minute | 8.604 | 6.839 | 5.594 | |
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute | 8.210 | 5.459 | 4.172 | |
Knockdowns per Fight | 5.904 | 0.322 | 0.906 | |
Striking Impact Differential | 8.38% | 35.40% | 7.50% | |
Significant Striking Impact Differential | 8.00% | 27.73% | 6.14% | |
Striking Output Differential | 15.13% | 38.07% | 11.75% | |
Significant Striking Output Differential | 14.88% | 30.20% | 9.66% | |
Striking Defense to Offense Ratio | 66.67% | 58.68% | 67.19% | |
Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio | 69.18% | 70.37% | 84.56% | |
Striking Defense Percentage | 55.19% | 54.37% | 46.80% | |
Takedown and Submission Stats | ||||
Submissions per Fight | 0.000 | 0.081 | 0.276 | |
Takedowns per Fight | 0.000 | 0.564 | 1.325 | |
Takedowns Attempted per Fight | 1.687 | 0.887 | 2.892 | |
Takedown Defense | 33.33% | 33.87% | 102.93% | |
Takedown Accuracy | 0.00% | 63.64% | 25.87% | |
Head Stats | ||||
Head Strikes Landed per Minute | 7.648 | 3.433 | 2.825 | |
Head Strikes Attempted per Minute | 16.026 | 7.033 | 6.541 | |
Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 2.474 | 1.773 | 1.999 | |
Body Stats | ||||
Body Strikes Landed per Minute | 0.506 | 1.112 | 0.797 | |
Body Strikes Attempted per Minute | 0.900 | 1.392 | 1.021 | |
Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 0.844 | 0.693 | 0.701 | |
Leg Stats | ||||
Leg Strikes Landed per Minute | 0.056 | 0.913 | 0.549 | |
Leg kicks Attempted per Minute | 0.056 | 1.075 | 0.636 | |
Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute | 1.293 | 0.758 | 0.597 | |
Clinch Stats | ||||
Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute | 1.012 | 0.510 | 0.469 | |
Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute | 1.912 | 0.741 | 0.665 | |
Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 0.450 | 0.199 | 0.384 |
Date | Weight | Elevation | Red Corner | Blue Corner | Winner |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nov. 11, 2023 | UFC Interim Heavyweight Title | Sergei Pavlovich | Tom Aspinall | Tom Aspinall | |
April 22, 2023 | Heavyweight | Sergei Pavlovich | Curtis Blaydes | Sergei Pavlovich | |
Dec. 3, 2022 | Heavyweight | Tai Tuivasa | Sergei Pavlovich | Sergei Pavlovich | |
July 30, 2022 | Heavyweight | Derrick Lewis | Sergei Pavlovich | Sergei Pavlovich | |
March 19, 2022 | Heavyweight | Shamil Abdurakhimov | Sergei Pavlovich | Sergei Pavlovich | |
Oct. 26, 2019 | Heavyweight | Maurice Greene | Sergei Pavlovich | Sergei Pavlovich | |
April 20, 2019 | Heavyweight | Sergei Pavlovich | Marcelo Golm | Sergei Pavlovich | |
Nov. 24, 2018 | Heavyweight | Alistair Overeem | Sergei Pavlovich | Alistair Overeem |
Date | Weight | Elevation | Red Corner | Blue Corner | Winner |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sept. 9, 2023 | Heavyweight | Tai Tuivasa | Alexander Volkov | Alexander Volkov | |
March 11, 2023 | Heavyweight | Alexander Volkov | Alexandr Romanov | Alexander Volkov | |
June 4, 2022 | Heavyweight | Alexander Volkov | Jairzinho Rozenstruik | Alexander Volkov | |
March 19, 2022 | Heavyweight | Alexander Volkov | Tom Aspinall | Tom Aspinall | |
Oct. 30, 2021 | Heavyweight | Alexander Volkov | Marcin Tybura | Alexander Volkov | |
June 26, 2021 | Heavyweight | Ciryl Gane | Alexander Volkov | Ciryl Gane | |
Feb. 6, 2021 | Heavyweight | Alistair Overeem | Alexander Volkov | Alexander Volkov | |
Oct. 24, 2020 | Heavyweight | Alexander Volkov | Walt Harris | Alexander Volkov | |
June 20, 2020 | Heavyweight | Curtis Blaydes | Alexander Volkov | Curtis Blaydes | |
Nov. 9, 2019 | Heavyweight | Alexander Volkov | Greg Hardy | Alexander Volkov | |
Oct. 6, 2018 | Heavyweight | Derrick Lewis | Alexander Volkov | Derrick Lewis | |
March 17, 2018 | Heavyweight | Fabricio Werdum | Alexander Volkov | Alexander Volkov | |
Sept. 2, 2017 | Heavyweight | Alexander Volkov | Stefan Struve | Alexander Volkov | |
April 15, 2017 | Heavyweight | Alexander Volkov | Roy Nelson | Alexander Volkov | |
Nov. 19, 2016 | Heavyweight | Timothy Johnson | Alexander Volkov | Alexander Volkov |