Analysis: Rinat Fakhretdinov vs Nicolas Dalby

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Rinat Fakhretdinov to Win

Score: 24 Odds: Rinat Fakhretdinov: -350 Nicolas Dalby: 275

Rinat Fakhretdinov's Breakdown

Rinat Fakhretdinov, the #16 ranked welterweight, is a well-rounded fighter with a strong wrestling base and a relentless pressure fighting style. The 32-year-old Russian boasts an impressive 22-2-1 professional record and is currently a moderate betting favorite at -290 odds.

Fakhretdinov's strengths lie in his ability to grind opponents against the fence and wear them down with his pace and cardio. He averages an impressive 4.25 takedowns per fight in his UFC career so far. In his last fight against Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos, Fakhretdinov threatened with multiple submissions from top position, showing his prowess on the mat.

His striking has been improving as well. He lands 4.05 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.14 in return, giving him a solid +1.91 differential. Fakhretdinov keeps a busy pace, landing 7.14 total strikes per minute.

The one blemish on Fakhretdinov's record is a majority decision loss to Zaleski dos Santos in his last outing. But he remains undefeated in his 3 other UFC fights and boasts an impressive 95% win rate overall.

Nicolas Dalby's Breakdown

Nicolas Dalby, the #17 ranked welterweight, is a seasoned veteran with a 23-4-1 record. At 39 years old, the Danish fighter brings a wealth of experience and a well-rounded skillset to the octagon.

Known for his striking prowess and durability, Dalby has proven his ability to weather early storms and come back strong in later rounds. On the feet, he lands 4.03 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.82, a narrow +0.21 differential. He mixes up his strikes well to the head and body.

One potential concern is that he was knocked out by Gabriel Bonfim in his last fight, the first KO loss of his career. However, Dalby's takedown defense has held up well recently, stuffing 66% of attempts against him. He's only been taken down 1.11 times per fight in the UFC. His own offensive wrestling lags behind though, landing just 31% of his takedown tries.

Previous Fight Breakdown

This will be the first meeting between Fakhretdinov and Dalby.

Analysis and Key Points

• Fakhretdinov's wrestling could be the difference-maker. He lands over 4 takedowns per fight and has a perfect 100% takedown defense so far in the UFC. If he can get Dalby down, he'll have a major grappling advantage.
• Dalby needs to keep it standing. His striking is technical but his KO loss last time out is concerning. Still, exchanging on the feet gives him a much better path to victory than grappling with Fakhretdinov.
• Cardio could come into play. Both men push a solid pace, but Fakhretdinov's wrestling-heavy style may test his gas tank against a durable veteran like Dalby. If Fakhretdinov slows down, Dalby could take over late.
• Clash of styles. The key factors that could determine the outcome are Fakhretdinov's ability to impose his wrestling and control the pace, versus Dalby's ability to keep it standing and leverage his striking advantage.

Understanding the Prediction

The model's prediction for Fakhretdinov appears strongly influenced by a few key factors:

• The betting odds (-350) significantly favor Fakhretdinov and moved the model's score by 20 points.
• Fakhretdinov's +3.05 takedown attempt differential likely swayed the model. That wrestling threat could neutralize Dalby's striking.
• Fakhretdinov's +21.75 significant striking impact differential suggests he lands the harder shots, which the model bumped the score 2 points for.

Other factors like Fakhretdinov's winning streak and higher overall win percentage also gave slight boosts to his chances in the model's eyes.

Past Model Performance

The model's history on these fighters is a bit mixed: - It has gone 3-1 overall on Fakhretdinov fights, but did pick him to beat Zaleski dos Santos last time out in a fight he lost. - The model is just 2-2 on picking Dalby's fights and has gotten his last 2 wrong, including predicting him to lose as an underdog against Claudio Silva and Warlley Alves.

So while the model has a winning record on Fakhretdinov, its recent stumbles on Dalby's fights are reason for some caution.

Conclusion

WolfTicketsAI sees Rinat Fakhretdinov as a solid favorite here, mainly on the strength of his oppressive wrestling game and improving striking. Dalby is a seasoned, durable opponent with technical boxing, but Fakhretdinov's grappling credentials are likely too much to overcome unless the Dane can consistently stuff takedowns for 3 rounds.

The model's recent misfires on Dalby's fights are a red flag to consider. Fakhretdinov's cardio will also be tested against a veteran known for late-fight surges. But ultimately, the Russian's style seems like a difficult matchup for Dalby.

Look for Fakhretdinov to close the distance, land takedowns, and wear Dalby down with a grinding pace to earn a clear-cut decision victory or late submission.