Analysis: Nasrat Haqparast vs Jared Gordon

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Nasrat Haqparast to Win

Score: 16 Odds: Nasrat Haqparast: -240 Jared Gordon: 195

Nasrat Haqparast's Breakdown

Nasrat Haqparast, a 28-year-old Afghan-born German fighter, has been making waves in the UFC's lightweight division. With a background in judo and a solid striking game, particularly in boxing and Muay Thai, Haqparast has proven himself to be a formidable opponent. He effectively utilizes his 72-inch reach to keep opponents at bay and has also showcased impressive grappling abilities, securing a few submission victories in his career.

Haqparast is riding a three-fight winning streak, with his most recent victory coming via a devastating KO/TKO over Jamie Mullarkey in the first round. He has showcased his striking prowess, landing 4.20 head strikes per minute while absorbing only 3.23. His striking defense to offense ratio of 1.53 and significant striking defense to offense ratio of 1.64 indicate he lands more than he absorbs.

Haqparast's striking accuracy of 46.68% and significant striking accuracy of 44.79% are solid, and he lands 6.28 strikes per minute and 5.78 significant strikes per minute. His average striking output differential of -31.25 suggests he gets outstruck, but his significant striking impact differential of 6.25 shows he lands the more impactful shots.

Jared Gordon's Breakdown

Jared Gordon, a 35-year-old seasoned veteran from New York, has a wealth of experience competing in various promotions, including the UFC. He is a well-rounded fighter with a strong background in boxing, wrestling, and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Gordon's strengths lie in his grappling and ground game, where he has secured several submission victories, but he is also a capable striker with a solid boxing base and willingness to engage in stand-up exchanges.

Gordon has alternated wins and losses in his last four fights, most recently scoring a first-round KO/TKO over Mark Madsen. He is a high-volume striker, landing 10.14 strikes per minute and 5.39 significant strikes per minute. He lands 3.83 head strikes per minute while absorbing only 2.14.

Gordon's striking accuracy of 69.52% and significant striking accuracy of 57.64% are very high, indicating he is an efficient striker. He also has strong grappling, landing 1.95 takedowns per fight at a 40% accuracy rate. His average striking output differential of 58.14 and striking impact differential of 61.57 show he consistently outlands and out-impacts his opponents.

One of Gordon's most notable performances was his controversial decision loss to Paddy Pimblett at UFC 282, where he pushed the rising star to the limit, showcasing his toughness and ability to compete with the best in the division.

Analysis and Key Points

• Haqparast has the reach advantage at 72" compared to Gordon's 68".
• Haqparast has been more active recently, going 4-1 in his last 5 compared to Gordon's 3-2.
• Gordon attempts far more takedowns at 4.87 per fight compared to Haqparast's 1.57, so wrestling could be a key factor.
• Haqparast has the edge in significant striking impact differential at 6.25 to Gordon's -21.86.
• Gordon is the much higher volume striker, landing 10.14 strikes per minute to Haqparast's 6.28.
• This matchup promises to be an intriguing clash of styles and strategies, with Haqparast likely looking to keep the fight standing and utilize his reach advantage and technical striking, while Gordon will likely try to close the distance, initiate clinches, and take the fight to the ground.
• Both fighters have shown a high level of durability and resilience, setting the stage for a potential war of attrition.

Understanding the Prediction

• Odds: The odds heavily favor Haqparast at -240 compared to +195 for Gordon, increasing the score by 15.0.
• TrueSkill: The TrueSkill metric favors Gordon at 30.25 to Haqparast's 27.89, increasing the score by 4.0.
• Recent Win Percentage: Haqparast has won his last 2 fights while Gordon is 2-2, increasing the score by 2.0.
• Significant Striking Impact Differential: Haqparast has the edge at 6.25 to Gordon's -21.86, decreasing the score by 1.0.
• Striking Impact Differential: Gordon has the advantage at 61.57 to Haqparast's -1.92, decreasing the score by 1.0.

Past Model Performance

The model has predicted Haqparast correctly in 2 of his last 3 fights, with the one incorrect pick coming against Bobby Green. For Gordon, the model has predicted him correctly in 3 of his last 4, only missing the Paddy Pimblett fight. This suggests the model has a solid understanding of both fighters.

Conclusion

While Gordon is the higher volume striker, better grappler, and has shown his ability to compete with top-ranked lightweights, Haqparast has the reach advantage, better recent results, and lands the more impactful shots. The model leans heavily on the odds and gives Haqparast the edge, predicting him to get the win.

However, Gordon's wrestling could be a factor if he can consistently land takedowns and control the fight on the ground. Additionally, both fighters have proven their toughness and resilience, which could lead to a grueling battle of attrition.

The winner of this bout could potentially break into the lightweight division's top 15 rankings, opening up opportunities for higher-profile matchups and a potential title shot down the line. Overall, this shapes up as an exciting and closely contested fight, but Haqparast's striking and momentum earn him the nod from WolfTicketsAI.