Analysis: Cory Sandhagen vs Umar Nurmagomedov

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Umar Nurmagomedov to Win

Score: 12 Odds: Cory Sandhagen: 230 Umar Nurmagomedov: -310

Cory Sandhagen's Breakdown

Cory Sandhagen, a dynamic and versatile striker, has proven himself as one of the top bantamweights in the UFC. With a record of 17-4, Sandhagen has showcased his ability to adapt and overcome various opponents. His recent performances, particularly against Rob Font and Marlon Vera, demonstrate his evolution as a fighter.

Sandhagen's striking is characterized by high volume and constant movement. He effectively uses his 70-inch reach to maintain distance, employing a diverse array of techniques including stance switches, body kicks, and elbow strikes. In his fight against Song Yadong, Sandhagen's use of an up elbow proved decisive, causing a fight-ending cut.

One of Sandhagen's key strengths is his ability to mix striking with takedown attempts, keeping opponents guessing. This was evident in his bout with Song Yadong, where he incorporated early takedown attempts to disrupt his opponent's rhythm. Sandhagen's fight IQ allows him to make mid-fight adjustments, as seen in his split decision victory over Marlon Vera.

Umar Nurmagomedov's Breakdown

Umar Nurmagomedov enters this bout with an unblemished 17-0 record, showcasing a blend of dominant grappling and evolving striking skills. While his style is reminiscent of his cousin Khabib Nurmagomedov's wrestling-heavy approach, Umar has developed a more diverse striking game.

Nurmagomedov's grappling prowess is evident in his impressive 4.5 takedowns per fight, with a 56% accuracy rate. His ground control is suffocating, often leading to submission victories or dominant decision wins. However, it's his striking improvements that have made him a more complete fighter.

In his recent bout against Raoni Barcelos, Nurmagomedov showcased his striking evolution. He effectively used lead leg push kicks to maintain distance and disrupt his opponent's rhythm. His ability to switch stances and throw unpredictable combinations kept Barcelos off-balance, ultimately leading to a knockout victory.

Nurmagomedov's defensive skills are also noteworthy, with a significant striking defense percentage of 76.15%. This defensive acumen, combined with his offensive variety, makes him a challenging puzzle for opponents to solve.

Analysis and Key Points

• Striking vs Grappling: This bout presents a classic striker vs grappler matchup, with Sandhagen's volume striking against Nurmagomedov's takedown-heavy approach.
• Reach Advantage: Sandhagen's slight reach advantage (70" vs 69") could be crucial in maintaining distance against Nurmagomedov's takedown attempts.
• Defensive Skills: Both fighters boast impressive defensive stats, with Nurmagomedov holding a significant edge in significant striking defense (76.15% vs 58.02%).
• Takedown Battle: Nurmagomedov's superior takedown accuracy (56% vs 33.33%) could be a deciding factor if he can get Sandhagen to the ground consistently.
• Striking Volume: Sandhagen's higher striking output (7.19 strikes landed per minute vs Nurmagomedov's 7.77) suggests he might have an edge in a prolonged striking battle.

Understanding the Prediction

• Recent Win Percentage: Nurmagomedov's perfect record (1.00) compared to Sandhagen's recent win percentage (1.00) slightly favors Nurmagomedov.
• Striking Defense: Nurmagomedov's superior striking defense percentage (76.15% vs 58.02%) gives him an edge in potentially avoiding Sandhagen's high-volume attacks.
• Takedown Attempts: Nurmagomedov's higher rate of takedown attempts (8.05 per fight vs Sandhagen's 4.08) suggests he may control the fight's location more effectively.
• Striking Accuracy: Nurmagomedov's higher striking accuracy (74.49% vs Sandhagen's 50.04%) indicates he may land more efficiently, even if attempting fewer strikes.

Past Model Performance

For Cory Sandhagen: - Correctly predicted his win against Rob Font (score: 0.78) - Incorrectly predicted his loss against Marlon Vera (score: 0.72) - Correctly predicted his win against Song Yadong (score: 0.62)

The model has shown mixed results for Sandhagen, with two correct predictions and one incorrect. This suggests a moderate level of confidence in predicting Sandhagen's performances.

For Umar Nurmagomedov: - Correctly predicted his win against Raoni Barcelos (score: 0.84) - Correctly predicted his win against Nate Maness (score: 0.19) - Correctly predicted his win against Brian Kelleher (score: 0.22)

The model has been consistently accurate in predicting Nurmagomedov's victories, albeit with varying confidence scores. This perfect prediction record for Nurmagomedov lends credence to the current prediction in his favor.

Conclusion

WolfTicketsAI's prediction favoring Umar Nurmagomedov aligns with his undefeated record and dominant performances. Nurmagomedov's superior grappling and improving striking make him a formidable opponent for Sandhagen. However, Sandhagen's high-volume striking and ability to adapt mid-fight cannot be overlooked. The bout is likely to be competitive, with Nurmagomedov's takedowns and control potentially being the deciding factor.

Analysis: Shara Magomedov vs Michal Oleksiejczuk

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Shara Magomedov to Win

Score: 18 Odds: Shara Magomedov: -280 Michal Oleksiejczuk: 210

Shara Magomedov's Breakdown

Shara "Bullet" Magomedov enters this middleweight bout as an undefeated prospect with a perfect 13-0 record. His Dagestani wrestling background provides a strong foundation for his grappling-centric approach. While his UFC tenure is brief, it has been impressive. In his debut, Magomedov showcased improved striking against Bruno Silva, securing a unanimous decision victory. He followed this with a spectacular KO/TKO win over Antonio Trocoli, demonstrating his finishing ability and earning a Performance of the Night bonus.

Magomedov's statistical profile reveals a well-rounded fighter. With 7.1 significant strikes landed per minute and a striking accuracy of 74.43%, he's shown to be both prolific and precise. His striking defense, while not elite at 35.20%, is compensated by his offensive output and grappling threat. Notably, Magomedov's patient and methodical approach allows him to wear down opponents before capitalizing on openings.

Michal Oleksiejczuk's Breakdown

Michal Oleksiejczuk brings a wealth of experience to this matchup, boasting a 19-8-1 record. Known for his world-class boxing skills and knockout power, Oleksiejczuk's UFC journey has been a rollercoaster. His recent form is concerning, coming off back-to-back submission defeats to Michel Pereira and Kevin Holland, highlighting his vulnerability on the ground.

Statistically, Oleksiejczuk is a dangerous striker, averaging 5.07 significant strikes per minute with a 50.55% accuracy. His knockout power is evident, with 1.28 knockdowns per fight. However, his grappling defense has been his Achilles' heel, as evidenced by his recent submission losses.

Analysis and Key Points

• Grappler vs Striker: This matchup presents a classic grappler vs striker scenario, with Magomedov's Dagestani wrestling against Oleksiejczuk's powerful boxing.
• Takedown Battle: Magomedov's ability to secure takedowns and Oleksiejczuk's takedown defense will be crucial factors in determining the fight's landscape.
• Striking Exchanges: While Magomedov has shown improved striking, Oleksiejczuk holds a clear edge in this department. Magomedov must be cautious in these exchanges.
• Ground Control: If Magomedov can get the fight to the ground, his superior grappling skills could allow him to control Oleksiejczuk and look for submissions or ground-and-pound.
• Cardio and Pace: Oleksiejczuk's aggressive style could pressure Magomedov, but might lead to fatigue if he can't finish early.
• Momentum Factor: Magomedov rides the wave of an undefeated record, while Oleksiejczuk looks to rebound from consecutive losses.

Understanding the Prediction

• Odds: The significant -280 odds for Magomedov heavily influenced the model's prediction.
• Significant Striking Impact Differential: Magomedov's +57.0 versus Oleksiejczuk's +4.6429 suggests a striking advantage for Magomedov, despite Oleksiejczuk's reputation as the better striker.
• Striking Impact Differential: Magomedov's +92.0 compared to Oleksiejczuk's +6.9286 further reinforces Magomedov's striking edge.
• Recent Significant Striking Impact Differential: Magomedov's +38.5 versus Oleksiejczuk's +4.8738 indicates better recent striking performance for Magomedov.
• Striking Defense Percentage: Oleksiejczuk's 57.34% versus Magomedov's 32.09% is a point in Oleksiejczuk's favor, though not enough to sway the overall prediction.
• TrueSkill: Magomedov's lower TrueSkill rating (Mu: 25.0) compared to Oleksiejczuk's (Mu: 29.62) suggests the model sees potential in Magomedov despite less UFC experience.

Past Model Performance

For Shara Magomedov, there are no past predictions available, which introduces an element of uncertainty to the model's current prediction. This lack of historical data should be considered when evaluating the confidence in the prediction.

For Michal Oleksiejczuk, the model has a mixed track record, correctly predicting several of his recent wins and losses, but also missing on some outcomes. The model's accuracy in recent predictions for Oleksiejczuk lends some credibility to its current prediction, but caution is advised due to the lack of data for Magomedov.

Conclusion

WolfTicketsAI favors Shara Magomedov in this middleweight clash, primarily based on his striking metrics, undefeated record, and grappling advantage. The key to victory for Magomedov likely lies in implementing his wrestling-heavy gameplan, controlling Oleksiejczuk on the ground, and avoiding prolonged striking exchanges. For Oleksiejczuk, defending takedowns and leveraging his boxing skills to keep the fight standing are crucial for an upset victory.

Given Magomedov's limited UFC exposure and the model's lack of historical predictions for him, this prediction carries some inherent uncertainty. The contrasting styles of these fighters set the stage for an intriguing battle that could either end in a technical grappling showcase or a explosive striking finish.

Analysis: Marlon Vera vs Deiveson Figueiredo

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Marlon Vera to Win

Score: 1 Odds: Marlon Vera: +125 Deiveson Figueiredo: -145

Marlon Vera's Breakdown

Marlon "Chito" Vera enters this bantamweight clash with a reputation for resilience and fight-changing power. His patient, counter-striking style has served him well, allowing him to weather early storms and capitalize on opponents' mistakes. Vera's recent performances have shown both promise and areas for improvement. Against Sean O'Malley, Vera's low kicks proved devastating, leading to a TKO victory. However, in his bout with Cory Sandhagen, Vera's low output and passive approach cost him on the scorecards.

Vera's ability to absorb punishment and deliver powerful strikes makes him a threat throughout the fight. His diverse arsenal includes devastating body shots, as seen in his fight with Rob Font, and creative techniques like the hook kick he employed against Dominick Cruz. Vera's grappling skills, while not his primary weapon, provide a solid defensive base and occasional submission threat.

Deiveson Figueiredo's Breakdown

Deiveson Figueiredo brings explosive power and an aggressive style to his bantamweight debut. Known for his knockout ability and submission skills, Figueiredo has shown significant evolution in his recent fights. His series with Brandon Moreno demonstrated his ability to adapt and refine his approach, incorporating more strategic elements to complement his raw power.

Figueiredo's recent victory over Rob Font showcased his improved wrestling and ground control, adding new dimensions to his already formidable striking game. His powerful uppercuts and diverse takedown arsenal proved effective in neutralizing Font's technical striking. Figueiredo's guillotine choke remains a constant threat, forcing opponents to be cautious in grappling exchanges.

Analysis and Key Points

• Striking Exchanges: Both fighters possess fight-ending power, but Vera's counter-striking may clash with Figueiredo's aggressive style.
• Grappling Dynamics: Figueiredo's improved wrestling could be a key factor, potentially negating Vera's preference for striking battles.
• Cardio and Pacing: Vera's tendency for slow starts could be exploited by Figueiredo's explosive style, but Vera's ability to turn fights late remains a threat.
• Weight Class Impact: This marks Figueiredo's bantamweight debut, raising questions about how his power and style will translate.

Understanding the Prediction

• TrueSkill: Favors Vera significantly, indicating a higher perceived skill level based on recent performances.
• Odds: Despite WolfTicketsAI's prediction, the betting odds slightly favor Figueiredo, suggesting a close matchup.
• Win Streak Difference: Vera holds an advantage, having won more of his recent fights compared to Figueiredo.
• Striking Impact Differential: Favors Vera, highlighting his effectiveness in landing impactful strikes while minimizing damage.
• Reach: Vera's 2-inch reach advantage could be crucial in controlling distance and landing counter strikes.

Past Model Performance

Vera: - The model correctly predicted Vera's wins against Pedro Munhoz and Dominick Cruz. - However, it incorrectly predicted Vera to defeat Cory Sandhagen and Sean O'Malley in their recent title fight.

Figueiredo: - The model accurately predicted Figueiredo's victory over Cody Garbrandt. - It incorrectly favored Figueiredo in his loss to Brandon Moreno and underestimated him in his win against Rob Font.

The mixed results for both fighters suggest caution in interpreting the prediction, especially given Figueiredo's move to a new weight class.

Conclusion

This bantamweight clash between Marlon Vera and Deiveson Figueiredo promises to be a high-stakes affair with potential title implications. Vera's counter-striking and late-fight resurgence will be pitted against Figueiredo's explosive power and improved wrestling. While WolfTicketsAI favors Vera, the close odds and Figueiredo's recent improvements make this a compelling and unpredictable matchup. Vera's ability to weather early storms and finish strong could be the deciding factor, but Figueiredo's power and grappling threat cannot be underestimated. This fight has all the ingredients for a potential Fight of the Night contender.

Analysis: Tony Ferguson vs Michael Chiesa

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Michael Chiesa to Win

Score: 21 Odds: Tony Ferguson: 450 Michael Chiesa: -650

Tony Ferguson's Breakdown

Tony Ferguson, once a formidable force in the lightweight division, finds himself at a critical juncture in his career. Known for his unorthodox style and relentless pressure, Ferguson's recent performances have shown a marked decline. His signature moves, like the "step-up low kicks" and creative submission attempts, have lost their effectiveness as his speed and timing have diminished.

Ferguson's last win dates back to June 2019 against Donald Cerrone, followed by a string of five consecutive losses. His move to welterweight hasn't yielded the desired results, with losses to Nate Diaz and Paddy Pimblett showcasing his struggles to adapt to the division's physicality.

Ferguson's striking defense percentage of 52.03% and significant striking defense percentage of 55.11% indicate vulnerabilities that skilled opponents have exploited. His takedown defense ratio of 48.72% also suggests potential weaknesses against strong grapplers.

Michael Chiesa's Breakdown

Michael Chiesa, primarily known for his grappling prowess, has shown a more well-rounded game in recent years. Despite coming off two losses, Chiesa's move to welterweight has generally been more successful than Ferguson's. His submission skills remain a significant threat, with a submissions per fight rate of 0.9653.

Chiesa's striking has improved, though it's not his primary weapon. His significant striking accuracy of 40.97% is lower than Ferguson's, but he compensates with a strong grappling game. Chiesa's takedown accuracy of 50.67% and 3.3346 takedowns per fight demonstrate his ability to control the fight on the ground.

Chiesa's recent performances, including a unanimous decision win over Neil Magny, showcase his ability to implement strategic game plans against diverse opponents. His takedown defense ratio of 65% could be crucial in neutralizing any wrestling attempts from Ferguson.

Analysis and Key Points

• Stylistic Matchup: Chiesa's grappling-heavy approach could exploit Ferguson's declining takedown defense.
• Recent Form: Ferguson's five-fight losing streak contrasts sharply with Chiesa's more competitive recent outings.
• Weight Class Adaptation: Both fighters have moved up to welterweight, but Chiesa seems to have adjusted better.
• Striking Exchanges: Ferguson's higher volume striking could be negated by Chiesa's improving defense and grappling threats.
• Submission Threat: Chiesa's submission skills (0.9653 per fight) pose a significant danger to Ferguson, who has been submitted in two of his last five losses.

Understanding the Prediction

• Odds: The significant odds difference (Chiesa -650, Ferguson +450) heavily influences the model's prediction in Chiesa's favor.
• Recent Win Percentage: Chiesa's higher recent win percentage, despite coming off two losses, contrasts with Ferguson's five-fight losing streak.
• Significant Striking Impact Differential: Chiesa's slight edge here suggests he may be more effective in striking exchanges.
• Takedown Attempts: Chiesa's higher rate of takedown attempts per fight could be a key factor, especially against Ferguson's declining takedown defense.
• Striking Defense Percentage: Chiesa's higher striking defense percentage could help him avoid Ferguson's unorthodox attacks.

Past Model Performance

For Tony Ferguson: - The model correctly predicted Ferguson's losses in his last three fights against Paddy Pimblett, Bobby Green, and Michael Chandler. - It incorrectly predicted Ferguson to win against Nate Diaz, which ended in a submission loss for Ferguson.

For Michael Chiesa: - The model incorrectly predicted Chiesa to win in his last fight against Kevin Holland, which ended in a submission loss for Chiesa.

This mixed performance suggests caution in interpreting the current prediction. While the model has been accurate with Ferguson's recent losses, its miss on Chiesa's last fight indicates some uncertainty.

Conclusion

The prediction favors Michael Chiesa, primarily due to his grappling advantage and Ferguson's recent decline. However, Ferguson's unpredictability and Chiesa's recent loss add an element of uncertainty. Chiesa's path to victory likely involves takedowns and submission attempts, while Ferguson needs to leverage his striking and unorthodox style to keep the fight standing. Given both fighters' recent performances, this welterweight clash could be closer than the odds suggest, but Chiesa's more consistent recent form and grappling edge align with the model's prediction.

Analysis: Mackenzie Dern vs Loopy Godinez

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Loopy Godinez to Win

Score: 2 Odds: Mackenzie Dern: -132 Loopy Godinez: 104

Mackenzie Dern's Breakdown

Mackenzie Dern, a world-class Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu practitioner, has been evolving her MMA game but still faces challenges in translating her grappling prowess to the Octagon. Her recent performances have shown improved striking, particularly her jab, under Jason Parillo's tutelage. However, Dern's aggression sometimes comes at the cost of defensive vulnerabilities, especially in her striking defense.

In her recent bout against Angela Hill, Dern displayed an aggressive striking approach, overwhelming her opponent with volume and power. This fight highlighted both Dern's improvements and persistent weaknesses. Her ability to pressure opponents and control the pace of the fight has improved, but her tendency to leave her chin exposed remains a concern.

Dern's grappling remains her strongest asset. When she manages to get the fight to the ground, her submission threats are among the most dangerous in the division. However, her takedown accuracy of 15% indicates a significant hurdle in implementing her ground game consistently.

Loopy Godinez's Breakdown

Loopy Godinez has established herself as a well-rounded fighter with a particular strength in wrestling and ground control. Her aggressive style and relentless pressure have been key factors in her recent successes. Godinez's ability to seamlessly transition between striking and grappling makes her a challenging opponent to prepare for.

In her fight against Ariane Carnelossi, Godinez showcased her improved striking-to-takedown transitions, utilizing ankle picks and single-leg takedowns effectively. Her ground control was particularly impressive, demonstrating an ability to maintain dominant positions and neutralize her opponent's offense.

Godinez's recent performances have shown a marked improvement in her striking, which she uses effectively to set up her takedowns. Her takedown accuracy of 51.84% is significantly higher than Dern's, suggesting she may have an advantage in dictating where the fight takes place.

Analysis and Key Points

• Grappling Showdown: Both fighters excel in grappling, but with different strengths. Dern's submission threat vs Godinez's top control could lead to interesting ground exchanges.
• Striking Evolution: Both fighters have shown improvements in striking, but Godinez's integration of striking and wrestling appears more seamless.
• Takedown Battle: Godinez's superior takedown accuracy (51.84% vs Dern's 15%) could be a decisive factor.
• Pressure Fighting: Both fighters apply pressure, but Godinez's style may be more sustainable over five rounds.
• Recent Form: Dern has lost 3 of her last 5, while Godinez has won 4 of her last 5, indicating momentum favors Godinez.

Understanding the Prediction

• Odds: The betting odds favor Godinez, which aligns with the model's prediction.
• Recent Significant Striking Defense Percentage: Godinez's 68.80% vs Dern's 47.20% suggests a significant defensive advantage for Godinez.
• TrueSkill: While Dern's TrueSkill rating is higher, the model seems to weigh recent performance more heavily.
• Recent Win Percentage: Godinez's 67% vs Dern's 33% in recent fights supports the prediction.
• Striking Impact Differential: Godinez's positive differential vs Dern's negative suggests Godinez may have an edge in striking exchanges.

Past Model Performance

For Mackenzie Dern: - The model correctly predicted her loss to Amanda Lemos and win against Angela Hill. - It incorrectly predicted her win against Jessica Andrade (which ended in a KO loss for Dern).

For Loopy Godinez: - The model has been largely accurate, correctly predicting 5 out of her last 7 fights. - Notable misses include predicting her win against Virna Jandiroba (which she lost) and against Angela Hill (which she also lost).

The model's performance suggests reasonable reliability, but caution is warranted given recent misses for both fighters.

Conclusion

While Mackenzie Dern's elite submission skills pose a constant threat, Loopy Godinez's more well-rounded game and recent form make her a slight favorite. Godinez's superior takedown accuracy and striking defense could be the deciding factors. However, given both fighters' grappling prowess, a submission finish from either side remains a distinct possibility. This fight promises to be a technical showcase with potential for both striking exchanges and high-level grappling.

Analysis: Joel Alvarez vs Elves Brener

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Joel Alvarez to Win

Score: 11 Odds: Joel Alvarez: -190 Elves Brener: 163

Joel Alvarez's Breakdown

Joel "El Fenomeno" Alvarez, the 31-year-old Spanish fighter, brings an impressive 20-3 record to the octagon. His UFC run has been marked by a series of finishes, showcasing his dangerous submission game and improving striking. Alvarez's 6'3" frame and 77-inch reach provide a significant size advantage in the lightweight division, allowing him to control distance and set up his attacks effectively.

Alvarez's submission prowess is his standout attribute, with 17 of his 20 wins coming via tapout. His arsenal includes a variety of techniques such as triangle chokes, guillotines, and armbars, making him a constant threat on the ground. In his most recent outing, Alvarez submitted Marc Diakiese, demonstrating his ever-evolving ground game and bouncing back from his loss to Arman Tsarukyan.

Elves Brener's Breakdown

Elves Brener, a 26-year-old Brazilian prospect, boasts a 16-4 record. His well-rounded skillset includes both knockout power and submission ability, with 3 KO wins and 11 submission victories on his record. Brener's UFC tenure has been a mix of impressive performances and learning experiences.

Brener's most recent fight resulted in a unanimous decision loss to Myktybek Orolbai at UFC 301, breaking a three-fight win streak in the UFC. Prior to this setback, he showcased his finishing ability with back-to-back TKO victories over Kaynan Kruschewsky and Guram Kutateladze. These performances highlighted his improved striking and ability to capitalize on exchanges.

Analysis and Key Points

• Stylistic Matchup: Alvarez's submission-heavy approach contrasts with Brener's more balanced striking and grappling game, setting up an intriguing clash of styles.
• Reach Advantage: Alvarez's 5-inch reach advantage could be a significant factor, potentially allowing him to control distance in striking exchanges and set up his submissions.
• Ground Battle: Both fighters are skilled grapplers, but Alvarez's exceptional submission prowess might give him an edge if the fight goes to the ground.
• Pace and Pressure: Brener's tendency to push the pace could test Alvarez's cardio, especially if he can force the fight into later rounds.
• Experience Factor: Alvarez has more UFC experience and has faced higher-ranked opponents, which could play a role in a closely contested fight.

Understanding the Prediction

• Odds: The betting odds strongly favor Alvarez, significantly influencing the model's prediction.
• Recent Win Percentage: Alvarez's higher recent win percentage boosted the model's confidence in his victory.
• Significant Striking Impact Differential: Alvarez's edge in this stat suggests he lands more impactful strikes, potentially swaying judges or setting up finishes.
• Reach: Alvarez's reach advantage is seen as a key factor by the model, likely due to its importance in both striking and grappling exchanges.
• Striking Defense Percentage: Interestingly, Brener's better striking defense slightly decreased the prediction score for Alvarez, indicating a potential area of competitiveness.
• TrueSkill: Alvarez's slightly higher TrueSkill rating contributed to the prediction, reflecting his overall performance level.

Past Model Performance

For Joel Alvarez, WolfTickets has a mixed record: - Correctly predicted his loss to Arman Tsarukyan. - Incorrectly predicted his loss to Marc Diakiese, which Alvarez won by submission.

For Elves Brener, WolfTickets has been inconsistent: - Correctly predicted his loss to Myktybek Orolbai. - Incorrectly predicted his loss to Guram Kutateladze, which Brener won by TKO.

This mixed performance suggests some uncertainty in the model's predictions for these fighters, which should be considered when evaluating the current prediction.

Conclusion

The matchup between Joel Alvarez and Elves Brener at UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov on August 3, 2024, promises to be an exciting lightweight contest with significant implications for both fighters' careers. WolfTicketsAI favors Alvarez, largely due to his recent performances, exceptional submission threat, and significant reach advantage.

Alvarez's path to victory likely involves using his reach to control distance and seek submissions, leveraging his BJJ background to secure one of his signature chokes or joint locks. Brener, on the other hand, will aim to close the distance, apply pressure, and utilize his improved striking to overwhelm Alvarez. His well-rounded skillset and ability to push the pace could pose problems for Alvarez, especially if the fight extends into later rounds.

Given the contrasting styles and the potential for both striking and grappling exchanges, this bout has the makings of a closely contested and dynamic fight. While the model favors Alvarez, Brener's recent improvements and the unpredictable nature of MMA mean this prediction should be approached with cautious optimism. Regardless of the outcome, this matchup will likely provide valuable insights into both fighters' potential in the competitive UFC lightweight division.

Analysis: Alonzo Menifield vs Azamat Murzakanov

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Azamat Murzakanov to Win

Score: 17 Odds: Alonzo Menifield: 176 Azamat Murzakanov: -230

Alonzo Menifield's Breakdown

Alonzo Menifield (15-4) enters this bout as a formidable light heavyweight contender. Standing at 6'0" with a 76" reach, Menifield's physical attributes complement his explosive fighting style. Known for his powerful striking and aggressive forward pressure, Menifield has shown recent improvements in his ground game and takedown defense.

Menifield's UFC journey has been a mix of highs and lows. His recent performances include a knockout loss to Carlos Ulberg, highlighting potential vulnerabilities in his striking defense. However, he bounced back with a unanimous decision victory over Dustin Jacoby, demonstrating his resilience and adaptability.

Key statistics for Menifield include: - Significant strikes landed per minute: 3.89 - Knockdowns per fight: 0.71 - Striking defense: 49.42%

In his fight against Jacoby, Menifield showcased improved tactical awareness, effectively using overhand rights and low kicks to control the fight. This evolution in his fighting style suggests growing maturity and a more well-rounded approach to MMA.

Azamat Murzakanov's Breakdown

Azamat Murzakanov (13-0) brings an unblemished professional record to this matchup. At 5'10" with a southpaw stance, Murzakanov presents a unique challenge for opponents. His fighting style combines technical striking, a strong wrestling background, and excellent cardio.

Murzakanov's UFC career, though shorter than Menifield's, has been impressive with three consecutive victories, including a third-round TKO over Devin Clark and a unanimous decision against Dustin Jacoby. These performances highlight his ability to maintain pressure and finish fights late.

Key statistics for Murzakanov include: - Significant strikes landed per minute: 4.70 - Striking accuracy: 57.62% - Striking defense: 56.94% - Knockdowns per fight: 1.22

His victory over Jacoby, a common opponent with Menifield, allows for an interesting comparative analysis of their performances.

Analysis and Key Points

• Striking Dynamics: Menifield's raw power contrasts with Murzakanov's more technical, southpaw approach. Murzakanov's left hand could be a key weapon, while Menifield will look to land his powerful combinations.
• Wrestling and Grappling: Murzakanov's wrestling background could be crucial. If he can take Menifield down, it may neutralize the American's striking advantage. However, Menifield's improved takedown defense and submission skills add an interesting dimension.
• Cardio and Pacing: Murzakanov tends to increase his output as fights progress, which could be crucial in later rounds. Menifield will need to manage his energy carefully.
• Experience vs. Momentum: While Menifield has more UFC experience, Murzakanov's undefeated record and recent performances give him significant momentum.
• Common Opponent: Both fighters have recent victories over Dustin Jacoby, providing a useful point of comparison.

Understanding the Prediction

• TrueSkill: Murzakanov's higher TrueSkill rating (36.30 vs 28.99) indicates a perceived skill advantage.
• Odds: The betting odds favor Murzakanov, aligning with the model's prediction.
• Striking Impact Differential: Murzakanov's higher recent significant striking impact differential (10.14 vs 3.24) suggests he's been more effective in recent fights.
• Defensive Statistics: Murzakanov's superior recent significant striking defense percentage (64.19% vs 55.55%) could be a key factor in the prediction.

Past Model Performance

WolfTickets has a mixed record predicting these fighters' bouts, correctly predicting some outcomes while missing others. This mixed performance suggests some uncertainty in the prediction, especially given Murzakanov's limited UFC history.

Conclusion

WolfTicketsAI favors Azamat Murzakanov in this intriguing clash of styles. Murzakanov's technical proficiency, undefeated record, and well-rounded skill set make him a formidable opponent. However, Menifield's explosive power and recent improvements cannot be overlooked. The key factors likely to determine the outcome are Murzakanov's ability to avoid Menifield's power shots, potentially exploit wrestling advantages, and maintain his characteristic high pace in later rounds. Menifield's path to victory lies in landing his powerful strikes and nullifying Murzakanov's takedown attempts. Given the limited UFC history for Murzakanov and the potential for explosive exchanges, this fight promises to be an exciting and potentially unpredictable encounter.

Analysis: Mohammad Yahya vs Kaue Fernandes

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Kaue Fernandes to Win

Score: 25 Odds: Mohammad Yahya: +260 Kaue Fernandes: -360

Mohammad Yahya's Breakdown

Mohammad Yahya, "The UAE Warrior," enters this lightweight bout with a 12-4 record, seeking his first UFC win after a unanimous decision loss to Trevor Peek in his promotional debut. Yahya's game combines strong striking with grappling abilities, making him a well-rounded fighter.

Yahya's striking credentials are impressive, boasting a black belt in kickboxing and an undefeated 22-0 kickboxing record. This background translates to his MMA game, where he lands 3.13 strikes per minute. However, his striking defense (37.11% for significant strikes) needs improvement.

In the grappling department, Yahya is a blue belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. While not his primary focus, his perfect takedown accuracy (1.0 takedowns per fight) and strong takedown defense ratio (1.3333) suggest he's comfortable in grappling exchanges.

Kaue Fernandes's Breakdown

Kaue Fernandes, an 8-2 Brazilian fighter, also seeks his first UFC victory after a split decision loss to Marc Diakiese in his debut. Fernandes brings an explosive style with a history of quick finishes, having five first-round stoppages in 1:28 or less.

Fernandes's striking is rooted in his Muay Thai black belt, evident in his higher striking output of 4.47 strikes per minute. His striking defense is notably better than Yahya's, particularly for significant strikes (59.38% defense).

On the ground, Fernandes holds a significant advantage as a BJJ black belt with multiple Brazilian and South American championships. This grappling prowess, combined with his perfect takedown accuracy, makes him a threat in all areas of the fight.

Analysis and Key Points

• Striking Clash: Yahya's kickboxing prowess versus Fernandes's Muay Thai skills sets up an intriguing stand-up battle. Yahya may have an edge in pure boxing, while Fernandes could be more dangerous in the clinch and with leg kicks.
• Grappling Disparity: Fernandes's BJJ black belt gives him a clear advantage on the ground. Yahya will need to be cautious if the fight goes to the mat.
• Finishing Ability: Fernandes's history of quick finishes adds an element of danger, especially in the early rounds.
• Home Advantage: The fight takes place in Abu Dhabi, potentially giving Yahya a significant boost from the home crowd.
• UFC Experience: Both fighters are 0-1 in the UFC, adding pressure to secure their first win in the promotion.
• Defensive Discrepancies: Fernandes's superior striking defense could be a game-changer in prolonged exchanges.

Understanding the Prediction

• Odds: The significant difference in odds (+260 vs -360) heavily favors Fernandes, reflecting bookmakers' confidence in his chances.
• Significant Striking Impact Differential: Fernandes's +10 versus Yahya's -18 indicates a substantial edge in effective striking for the Brazilian.
• TrueSkill: Despite identical TrueSkill ratings (Mu: 25.0, Sigma: 8.333), other factors seem to tilt the prediction towards Fernandes.
• Striking Impact Differential: Fernandes's +2 versus Yahya's -36 further emphasizes Fernandes's striking superiority.
• Striking Defense Percentage: Surprisingly, this slightly favors Yahya (32.52% vs 29.35%), which could be a potential area for him to exploit.

Past Model Performance

No past prediction data is available for either fighter, introducing uncertainty into the current prediction. Caution is advised when considering this prediction for betting purposes due to the lack of historical performance data for the WolfTicketsAI model regarding these fighters.

Conclusion

The WolfTicketsAI model favors Kaue Fernandes in this lightweight clash, primarily due to his striking advantages, grappling credentials, and more favorable odds. However, Mohammad Yahya's well-rounded skill set, kickboxing background, and home advantage in Abu Dhabi cannot be overlooked.

The contrasting styles promise an exciting matchup. Fernandes's BJJ expertise and history of quick finishes make him dangerous at any moment, while Yahya's kickboxing skills and potential for hometown inspiration could lead to a competitive fight.

This bout will likely be determined by who can impose their game plan more effectively. If Fernandes can utilize his grappling or Muay Thai clinch work, he could find success. However, if Yahya can keep the fight at boxing range and avoid takedowns, he might pull off an upset.

Given both fighters' recent losses and UFC inexperience, this fight carries an element of unpredictability. While Fernandes appears to have the edge on paper, Yahya's potential to control the striking and feed off the home crowd energy could lead to a closer contest than the odds suggest.

Analysis: Shamil Gaziev vs Don'Tale Mayes

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Shamil Gaziev to Win

Score: 12 Odds: Shamil Gaziev: -245 Don'Tale Mayes: 186

Shamil Gaziev's Breakdown

Shamil Gaziev enters this bout with a formidable 12-1 record, showcasing his dominance in the heavyweight division. Known for his aggressive fighting style and devastating finishing ability, Gaziev has secured 7 of his 10 victories by knockout or TKO. His approach is characterized by relentless pressure and powerful striking, constantly moving forward to seek fight-ending opportunities.

However, Gaziev's recent loss to Jairzinho Rozenstruik exposed critical weaknesses, particularly in his cardio and ability to handle pressure in later rounds. This fourth-round TKO defeat highlighted potential stamina issues that could be exploited in longer fights. While Gaziev's early-round aggression and powerful right-hand shots are significant threats, his severely limited gas tank often depletes within the first 90 seconds of a fight.

Gaziev's grappling skills shouldn't be overlooked, with one victory coming via rear-naked choke, adding another dimension to his offensive arsenal.

Don'Tale Mayes's Breakdown

Don'Tale "Lord Kong" Mayes brings a 9-5-0 record to this matchup, with his imposing 6'6" frame and 264-pound weight providing significant physical advantages. Mayes' fighting style is built on a foundation of judo and kickboxing, which he combines effectively in his MMA game.

Mayes has demonstrated improved composure and strategic striking in recent bouts, evidenced by his victory over veteran Andrei Arlovski via second-round TKO. This win showcased Mayes' ability to finish fights against experienced opponents. With 7 wins by knockout, Mayes possesses the striking power to end fights decisively.

A key factor in Mayes' recent performances has been his improved takedown defense, which could be crucial against Gaziev's pressure fighting style. Mayes' judo background may come into play, potentially allowing him to clinch and control Gaziev against the cage.

Analysis and Key Points

• Striking Power: Both fighters possess significant knockout power, with Gaziev's early-round aggression contrasting Mayes' more strategic approach.
• Pressure vs. Distance: Gaziev's pressure fighting style could pose problems for Mayes, but Mayes' height and reach advantage might allow him to keep Gaziev at bay.
• Grappling Dynamics: Gaziev's takedown attempts could trouble Mayes, but Mayes' improved takedown defense might force a stand-up battle.
• Cardio Concerns: Gaziev's severe cardio issues are a major liability, especially against Mayes's ability to maintain performance into later rounds.
• Experience Factor: Mayes has faced higher-level competition in the UFC, which could play a crucial role if the fight extends.

Understanding the Prediction

• Odds: The significant difference in betting odds heavily influenced the model's prediction in favor of Gaziev.
• Striking Impact: While Gaziev's overall striking impact differential is negative, his recent performance shows improvement, potentially offsetting Mayes's advantage in this area.
• Takedown Attempts: Gaziev's higher rate of recent takedown attempts could be a key factor, especially if he can establish early control.
• Striking Defense: Both fighters show similar striking defense percentages, but Gaziev's slight edge could be crucial in exchanges.
• Recent Win Percentage: Mayes's higher recent win percentage is offset by other factors in the model's prediction.

Past Model Performance

The model's past performance in predicting both fighters' bouts has been inconsistent, adding an element of uncertainty to the current prediction. This inconsistency, coupled with Gaziev's limited UFC experience, suggests approaching this prediction with caution.

Conclusion

While WolfTicketsAI predicts a win for Shamil Gaziev, this heavyweight clash presents intriguing variables. Gaziev's early power and pressure fighting could be decisive if he secures an early finish. However, his cardio issues present a significant risk, especially against a more experienced UFC fighter like Mayes. The key to this fight likely lies in whether Gaziev can capitalize on his early advantages before fatigue sets in. If Mayes can weather Gaziev's early storm, his improved striking, takedown defense, and potential cardio advantage could shift the fight in his favor in the later rounds. Given the unpredictable nature of heavyweight bouts and the fighters' respective strengths and weaknesses, this fight promises to be an exciting and closely contested affair.

Analysis: Viktoriia Dudakova vs Sam Hughes

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Viktoriia Dudakova to Win

Score: 11 Odds: Viktoriia Dudakova: -188 Sam Hughes: 146

Viktoriia Dudakova's Breakdown

Dudakova, the undefeated Russian prospect, enters this bout with a perfect 8-0 record. At just 25 years old, she's already made waves in the UFC with her aggressive, pressure-heavy style. Her grappling prowess is a cornerstone of her success, particularly her takedowns and ground control. Dudakova's striking has shown improvement, landing 3.08 head strikes per minute, but it's her relentless forward pressure that often overwhelms opponents.

Her last outing against Jinh Yu Frey at UFC 294 resulted in a unanimous decision victory, demonstrating her ability to adapt and overcome adversity. However, it's worth noting that Dudakova missed weight by 0.6 pounds for that fight, which could have impacted her performance. This weight management issue is something to watch for in her upcoming bout.

Sam Hughes' Breakdown

Hughes, known as "Sampage," brings a wealth of experience to this matchup with her 8-6 record. Her well-rounded skillset, honed from a background in track and field, makes her a versatile threat. Hughes' striking accuracy of 45.8% is noteworthy, and she's proven her finishing ability with 2 knockouts and 3 submissions in her career.

Despite coming off a unanimous decision loss to Yazmin Jauregui, Hughes has shown significant improvement, winning 3 of her last 5 fights. Her experience in the UFC and against tough competition could prove crucial in this bout. Hughes' ability to defend against grapplers and her improved striking make her a formidable opponent for the undefeated Dudakova.

Analysis and Key Points

• Grappling Battle: Dudakova's aggressive takedown attempts will test Hughes' submission defense and grappling skills.
• Striking Exchanges: While Dudakova holds an edge in striking output, Hughes' accuracy could pose problems if she keeps the fight standing.
• Pressure vs. Experience: Dudakova's relentless pressure will clash with Hughes' UFC experience and ability to face tough competition.
• Cardio Factor: Dudakova's high-pressure style could test Hughes' endurance, but Hughes' athletic background might give her an edge in a prolonged battle.
• Weight Cut Concerns: Dudakova's recent weight miss raises questions about her preparation, which could impact her performance.

Understanding the Prediction

• Odds: The -188 odds for Dudakova significantly influenced the model's prediction, indicating strong betting market confidence in her victory.
• Significant Striking Impact Differential: Dudakova's superior striking impact (14.0 vs -6.5 for Hughes) suggests she'll have the edge in striking exchanges.
• Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight: Dudakova's higher rate of takedown attempts (12.53 vs 2.74 for Hughes) indicates a more aggressive grappling strategy, which could control the fight's location.
• TrueSkill: Dudakova's slightly higher TrueSkill rating (Mu: 25.0 vs 24.26 for Hughes) suggests a marginal overall skill advantage.
• Recent Win Percentage: Dudakova's superior recent win rate (67% vs 33% for Hughes) points to better form coming into this fight.

Past Model Performance

The model has limited data on both fighters, with only one prediction for Dudakova and four for Hughes. Dudakova's sole prediction was accurate, while the model has been mixed on Hughes, correctly predicting two losses but incorrectly predicting two of her wins. This inconsistency in Hughes' predictions suggests caution when interpreting the model's confidence for this fight.

Conclusion

Viktoriia Dudakova enters this bout as the favorite, with her undefeated record and aggressive style backing up the oddsmakers' confidence. Her grappling skills and relentless pressure align well with the model's prediction. However, Sam Hughes' experience, improved striking, and proven resilience against tough competition cannot be discounted. The fight is likely to be competitive, with Dudakova's pressure and grappling advantage potentially being the deciding factors. Hughes' ability to keep the fight standing and utilize her striking accuracy could be key to an upset. While the model favors Dudakova, the limited prediction history and recent weight management issues suggest approaching this prediction with measured confidence. This matchup presents an opportunity for both fighters to make a statement in the strawweight division, with Dudakova looking to extend her unbeaten streak and Hughes aiming to derail the prospect's momentum.

Analysis: Jai Herbert vs Rolando Bedoya

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Rolando Bedoya to Win

Score: 2 Odds: Jai Herbert: -162 Rolando Bedoya: 126

Jai Herbert's Breakdown

Jai Herbert, known as the "Black Country Banger," brings a 12-5-1 record to the Octagon. At 6'1" with a 77-inch reach, Herbert's karate background and long frame make him a formidable striker in the lightweight division. His UFC journey has been a rollercoaster, showcasing both potential and vulnerabilities.

Herbert's striking statistics paint a picture of an offensive-minded fighter: - Significant Strikes Landed per Minute (SLpM): 2.69 - Striking Accuracy: 41% - Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute (SApM): 3.15 - Striking Defense: 45%

These numbers reveal Herbert's potent offense but also highlight defensive vulnerabilities. With 9 of his 12 wins coming by KO/TKO, Herbert's knockout power is a constant threat. However, his tendency to absorb significant damage in fights remains a concern.

In his recent bout against Farès Ziam, Herbert suffered a unanimous decision loss, following a majority draw against Ľudovít Klein. These results suggest Herbert is hungry to regain momentum and prove himself in the lightweight division.

Rolando Bedoya's Breakdown

Rolando "The Machine" Bedoya, with a 14-3 record, lives up to his nickname with an aggressive, high-volume striking style. His statistics are eye-opening: - Significant Strikes Landed per Minute (SLpM): 8.70 - Striking Accuracy: 55% - Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute (SApM): 6.83 - Striking Defense: 52%

Bedoya's output is remarkable, landing over three times as many strikes per minute as Herbert. However, this comes at the cost of absorbing more strikes as well. Bedoya's slightly better striking defense suggests he may be more effective in exchanges.

Despite his preference for striking, Bedoya has shown grappling skills with 3 submission victories. This adds an interesting dimension to his game that could come into play if he struggles with Herbert's range.

Bedoya is also looking to bounce back from two consecutive losses - a unanimous decision defeat to Song Kenan and a split decision loss to Khaos Williams. This fight represents a crucial opportunity for Bedoya to secure his first UFC victory.

Analysis and Key Points

• Striking Battle: Both fighters prefer striking, but with vastly different approaches. Herbert's long-range karate style contrasts with Bedoya's high-volume pressure.
• Range Control: Herbert's height and reach advantage could be crucial in controlling distance and timing Bedoya's aggressive entries.
• Output vs. Precision: Bedoya's incredibly high strike output (8.70 SLpM) against Herbert's more measured approach (2.69 SLpM) sets up an intriguing clash of styles.
• Defensive Vulnerabilities: Both fighters absorb significant strikes, with Herbert slightly more vulnerable (55% strikes absorbed vs. Bedoya's 48%).
• Grappling X-factor: While striking is likely to dominate, Bedoya's submission wins suggest he might look to grapple if struggling with Herbert's range.

Understanding the Prediction

• Odds: The odds heavily favor Bedoya, significantly influencing the model's prediction.
• Striking Volume: Bedoya's extremely high striking output likely plays a major role in the model's confidence.
• Recent Performances: Both fighters are coming off losses, but Bedoya's higher career win percentage (82.35% vs Herbert's 70.59%) may be factoring into the prediction.
• Striking Defense: Bedoya's slightly better striking defense could be seen as a key advantage in what's likely to be a stand-up battle.

Past Model Performance

The model's mixed prediction history for both fighters introduces uncertainty: - Correctly predicted Herbert's loss to Fares Ziam but incorrectly predicted his loss to Ludovit Klein. - Incorrectly predicted Bedoya's win against Song Kenan.

Given the limited prediction history, especially for Bedoya, caution is advised when considering this prediction for betting purposes.

Conclusion

The WolfTicketsAI prediction favoring Rolando Bedoya is intriguing given the contrasting styles and recent performances of both fighters. Bedoya's incredibly high striking volume and slightly better defense support the prediction. However, Herbert's range, knockout power, and UFC experience cannot be overlooked.

The fight is likely to be a high-paced striking affair with potential for sudden finishes. Herbert will likely try to control distance with his reach, while Bedoya will aim to overwhelm with volume and pressure. The fighter who can impose their style more effectively will likely emerge victorious.

Given both fighters' recent losses and the model's mixed prediction history, this bout is far from a sure thing. Fight fans can expect an exciting, potentially back-and-forth battle between two fighters hungry to prove themselves in the UFC.

Analysis: Sedriques Dumas vs Denis Tiuliulin

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Sedriques Dumas to Win

Score: 15 Odds: Sedriques Dumas: -225 Denis Tiuliulin: 172

Sedriques Dumas's Breakdown

Sedriques "The Reaper" Dumas, a 28-year-old American prospect with a 9-2 record, brings a diverse skill set to the octagon. His background in freestyle and Greco-Roman wrestling, coupled with a purple belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu under 10th Planet Jiu-Jitsu, forms a solid grappling foundation. Dumas's striking game revolves around Dutch kickboxing, emphasizing powerful punches and low kicks.

Despite a recent setback against Nursulton Ruziboev, Dumas has shown promise with unanimous decision victories over Abu Azaitar and Cody Brundage. His striking accuracy of 62.68% is impressive, though his 33.33% takedown accuracy suggests room for improvement in his wrestling execution. Dumas's 79-inch reach provides a significant advantage in controlling distance.

Denis Tiuliulin's Breakdown

Denis Tiuliulin, a 36-year-old Russian fighter with a 10-9-1 record, is known for his striking prowess, particularly in kickboxing. With 9 of his 10 wins coming by knockout, Tiuliulin's power is his most dangerous asset. He lands 3.31 head strikes per minute, showcasing his aggressive striking approach.

However, Tiuliulin's recent performances, including losses to Christian Leroy Duncan and Gregory Rodrigues, have exposed weaknesses in his grappling defense. His striking defense percentage of 33.24% is concerning, especially against a precise striker like Dumas. Tiuliulin's ability to generate knockdowns (0.94 per fight) remains his wild card.

Analysis and Key Points

• Striking vs. Grappling: Dumas's well-rounded skillset contrasts with Tiuliulin's striking-focused approach. Dumas may look to mix striking with takedowns, while Tiuliulin will aim to keep the fight standing.
• Experience vs. Potential: Tiuliulin's experience edge is notable, but Dumas's recent performances and diverse skill set suggest he's rapidly improving.
• Finishing Ability: Both fighters have shown finishing power, with Dumas capable of winning via knockout or submission, while Tiuliulin relies heavily on his knockout power.
• Recent Form: Dumas is coming off two unanimous decision victories, while Tiuliulin has lost his last two UFC outings.
• Physical Advantages: Dumas's 2-inch reach advantage and younger age (28 vs. 36) could play significant roles in the fight's dynamics.

Understanding the Prediction

• Odds: The significant odds difference heavily favors Dumas, contributing 12 points to the prediction score.
• Striking Defense: Dumas's superior striking defense percentages add 4 points to his favor.
• Striking Impact: Dumas holds a slight edge in significant striking impact differential.
• Recent Performance: Dumas's higher recent win percentage adds to his prediction score.
• Reach and Takedowns: Dumas's reach advantage and higher rate of recent takedown attempts suggest a more diverse offensive arsenal.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has correctly predicted Dumas's last two victories and his recent loss, showing accuracy in assessing his performances. For Tiuliulin, the model has correctly predicted his last three fights, all losses. This track record lends credibility to the current prediction, though caution is warranted due to the limited number of predictions for Dumas.

Conclusion

The prediction favors Sedriques Dumas, based on his well-rounded skillset, superior striking defense, reach advantage, and more favorable betting odds. While Denis Tiuliulin's experience and knockout power make him dangerous, Dumas's technical striking, grappling threat, and improving all-around game make him the likely victor. Expect Dumas to use his reach to control distance, mix in takedown attempts, and potentially secure a decision victory or late stoppage by exploiting Tiuliulin's grappling weaknesses.