Analysis: Tagir Ulanbekov vs Azat Maksum

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Tagir Ulanbekov to Win

Score: 21
Odds:
Tagir Ulanbekov: -350
Azat Maksum: +255

Tagir Ulanbekov's Breakdown

Ulanbekov brings elite-level grappling with a 16-2 record and a proven finishing ability. His signature trap hook takedown remains his most devastating weapon - against Clayton Carpenter, he perfectly timed this technique after Carpenter turned off the fence, immediately establishing cross-face control. His chain wrestling off the fence is particularly dangerous, as shown when he turned Carpenter's defensive wall-walk into a snap-down opportunity that led to a "hobbit D'arce" choke finish.

The Dagestani's striking has evolved significantly. Against Nate Maness, he demonstrated improved southpaw combinations, using his jab-cross to close distance before transitioning to single legs. His front kick game has become more sophisticated, and he's developed better feints - notably against Maness at 3:45 in round one when he feinted a level change, dropped Maness's hands, then landed a clean left straight.

Ulanbekov's submission game has expanded beyond positional control. The D'arce choke he used against Carpenter represents technical evolution - positioning the ridge of his wrist against the occipital bone for both blood restriction and cranking pressure. His wrist control during defensive wrestling remains exceptional, as demonstrated against Cody Durden when he prevented locked hands on takedown attempts.

Tagir Ulanbekov's Technical Vulnerabilities

Defensive gaps during transitions: When opponents create scrambles off the fence, Ulanbekov sometimes finds himself out of position. Against Carpenter, this was exposed when Carpenter successfully turned and pushed him away, creating brief vulnerability windows before Ulanbekov's snap-down counter.

Head position during entries: Ulanbekov occasionally enters takedown attempts with suboptimal head positioning, creating opportunities for front headlock control or knee counters. Against Tim Elliott, this vulnerability was repeatedly exploited as Elliott reversed takedown attempts and nearly achieved full mount.

Striking defense after combinations: He tends to drop his lead hand after throwing combinations, particularly when retreating to reset. Against Elliott, this created openings for counter hooks during his defensive resets, contributing to his unanimous decision loss.

Azat Maksum's Breakdown

Maksum enters with a 15-1 record but significant question marks after his loss to Charles Johnson. His signature techniques include a sharp straight right followed by defensive weaving underneath, creating angles for follow-up strikes. His front kick game shows technical sophistication - against orthodox opponents, he turns his knee inward and kicks upward, while against southpaws he executes "twist kicks" with his knee turned outward.

Against Tyson Nam, Maksum showcased his switch-stance combinations, frequently moving from orthodox to southpaw to land lead hooks followed by body kicks. His high-volume approach overwhelmed Nam, particularly in round three when his right-left combination damaged Nam's eye. The two big slams he landed at the round's end demonstrated his ability to mix grappling with striking pressure.

However, the Charles Johnson fight revealed concerning technical limitations. Johnson disrupted Maksum's rhythm with double jabs and shifting combinations, slipping from orthodox to southpaw mid-exchange to land unexpected right uppercuts. Maksum's takedown attempts were consistently stuffed, and Johnson even secured his own takedown, showing superior technical adaptability.

Azat Maksum's Technical Vulnerabilities

Linear defensive movement: Maksum relies heavily on straight-line retreats when pressured, making him susceptible to being backed against the fence. Johnson exploited this by maintaining constant forward pressure with lateral cuts, forcing Maksum into defensive positions where his kicking game was neutralized.

Predictable weaving patterns: His right hand-to-weave sequence, while technically sound, creates exploitable timing. Johnson began reading this pattern and used delayed counters to catch Maksum during his defensive movements. The weave motion exposes him to uppercuts and hooks timed to his predictable defensive rhythm.

Stance width and lead leg exposure: Maksum's notably wide stance provides stability for power shots but exposes his lead leg to inside kicks. When he steps wide to throw his right hand, there's a significant window where opponents can target the inside of his thigh or shin to disrupt his balance - an opportunity Johnson identified but didn't fully capitalize on.

Style Matchup Dynamics

Ulanbekov's patient pressure wrestling directly counters Maksum's linear retreat patterns. When Maksum backs up in straight lines under pressure, he'll walk directly into Ulanbekov's trap hook takedown setups. Ulanbekov's ability to cut angles and use the fence for takedowns exploits Maksum's tendency to get backed against the cage.

Maksum's front kick game could initially trouble Ulanbekov's entries, but Ulanbekov has shown excellent timing on reactive takedowns. Against Maness, he caught kicks and immediately transitioned to takedowns. Maksum's wide stance when throwing his right hand creates perfect timing for Ulanbekov's single leg entries.

The grappling mismatch is severe. While Maksum attempted takedowns against both Nam and Johnson, his technique lacks the refinement of Ulanbekov's sambo-based system. Ulanbekov's cross-face control and positional awareness will neutralize any scrambling attempts from Maksum.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early rounds: Ulanbekov will likely weather Maksum's initial striking volume while timing his takedown entries. Maksum's front kicks may create early success, but Ulanbekov's patience and defensive wrestling will allow him to find openings.

Mid-fight adjustments: As Maksum begins retreating linearly under pressure, Ulanbekov's cage cutting and trap hook takedowns will become increasingly effective. Maksum's predictable weaving patterns will be timed and exploited.

Championship rounds: Ulanbekov's superior cardio and positional control will dominate. His ability to maintain pressure for 15 minutes, demonstrated against multiple opponents, contrasts with Maksum's tendency to fade under sustained pressure.

Analysis and Key Points

• Grappling Mismatch: Ulanbekov's 3.56 takedowns per fight and elite submission rate (1.68 per fight) overwhelm Maksum's 50% takedown defense • Pressure Advantage: Maksum's linear retreats play directly into Ulanbekov's cage-cutting wrestling game • Experience Gap: Ulanbekov's 6-fight UFC experience includes elite competition like Tim Elliott, while Maksum struggled against Johnson's technical adjustments • Finishing Ability: Ulanbekov's recent submission evolution (D'arce vs Carpenter, RNC vs Maness) provides multiple paths to victory

Understanding the Prediction

The model's confidence stems from several key statistical advantages: - Odds increased the prediction score by 14.0, reflecting Ulanbekov's significant betting favorite status - Significant Striking Impact Differential added 7.0 to the score, highlighting Ulanbekov's ability to land meaningful strikes while avoiding damage - Striking Defense Percentage decreased the score by 3.0, acknowledging some defensive vulnerabilities - Recent Significant Striking Defense Percentage added 2.0, showing improvement in recent performances

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has an excellent 3-1 record predicting Ulanbekov, with the only miss being the Tim Elliott fight where the model gave Ulanbekov just a 27% chance. The model correctly predicted his submissions against Durden and Maness, showing strong accuracy on his finishing ability. For Maksum, the model was wrong in his loss to Johnson, having predicted him to win with 66% confidence, indicating potential overvaluation of his previous undefeated record.

Conclusion

Ulanbekov's technical superiority in grappling, combined with Maksum's exposed vulnerabilities against pressure and his linear defensive patterns, creates a clear path to victory. The Dagestani's evolved submission game and proven ability to finish fights gives him multiple avenues to victory, while Maksum's one-dimensional retreat patterns play directly into Ulanbekov's strengths. WolfTicketsAI's prediction of Ulanbekov by decision or submission appears well-founded given the significant technical and experience advantages.