Analysis: Song Kenan vs Muslim Salikhov

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Muslim Salikhov to Win

Score: 9 Odds:
Song Kenan: 140 Muslim Salikhov: -180

Song Kenan's Breakdown

Song Kenan is an aggressive striker who brings relentless forward pressure. He has power in both hands and likes to throw in combination, especially with his left hook and right straight. Kenan has 9 knockouts on his record, showing his fight-ending ability.

However, Kenan's aggression can sometimes work against him. He has been susceptible to counters when overextending himself, as seen in his KO losses to Ian Machado Garry and Max Griffin. When pressured, his takedown defense and groundwork have shown gaps that stronger wrestlers can exploit.

That said, Kenan has good cardio and is not afraid to go the distance, as evidenced by his recent decision wins over tough opponents like Ricky Glenn and Rolando Bedoya. His durability allows him to survive some compromising positions and keep fighting.

Muslim Salikhov's Breakdown

Muslim Salikhov is a highly technical striker with a Wushu Sanda background. The "King of Kung Fu" utilizes an array of unorthodox kicks, spinning attacks, and precise counters to confuse and damage opponents.

Salikhov excels at controlling range with constant shoulder feints and retreats that bait opponents into his kill zone. There he unleashes laser-accurate counter strikes, especially his overhand right. He has great takedown defense to keep the fight standing.

However, Salikhov's elusive style has limitations against composed pressure fighters like Li Jingliang who cut off the cage and don't overcommit. If forced to lead, Salikhov is less effective and open to being timed. His last two losses came when opponents didn't fall for his traps.

Analysis and Key Points

• This is a classic striker vs striker matchup between two dangerous kickboxers
• Range control will be key - if Kenan can pressure Salikhov back to the fence, he can unload his power combos
• However, Salikhov thrives at managing distance in open space, using constant feints and linear kicks to frustrate opponents
• Look for Salikhov to use lateral movement early to make Kenan chase and overextend his attacks
• If Kenan gets reckless coming in, Salikhov will be ready to time him with crisp counters, especially his money punch, the overhand right
• Kenan's paths to victory are either an early KO blitz or a grinding clinch battle to wear Salikhov down
• But Salikhov's takedown defense (66%) and cardio should keep him upright and fresh into the later rounds
• Salikhov's more diverse arsenal, precise counters, and evasive footwork make him a tough riddle for the one-note Kenan to solve

Understanding the Prediction

The model predicts Salikhov to win with high confidence based on several key factors:

• Odds: Salikhov is a substantial -180 betting favorite, indicating his perceived edge in the matchup
• TrueSkill: Salikhov's higher TrueSkill points to his overall skill advantage over Kenan
• Striking Impact Differential: Salikhov's positive strike differential suggests he lands cleaner and more damaging shots than he absorbs, compared to Kenan's negative ratio
• Striking Defense: Salikhov's superior striking defense (63% vs 49%) shows his ability to avoid damage - a key asset in a striking battle
• However, some factors do favor Kenan:
• Reach: Kenan will have a 1-inch reach advantage to pressure from the outside
• Recent Win Percentage: Kenan has won more of his recent fights compared to Salikhov
• Recent Striking Output: Kenan has the higher striking volume of late, useful for a pressure fighter

So while Kenan has paths to victory through relentless pressure and early KO seeking, Salikhov's slick defense, counter striking, and overall skill level make him the solid pick.

Past Model Performance

Historically, the model has performed extremely well when picking Salikhov, predicting 4 of his 5 last fights correctly.

The lone miss was when Salikhov lost via KO to Randy Brown after being predicted to win. Brown's nonstop pressure flustered Salikhov and showed a blueprint to beating him.

For Kenan, the model's record is spottier, going only 2 for 4. It failed to foresee his upset win over Rolando Bedoya. So the model may underrate Kenan's pressure and power a bit.

However, with Salikhov pegged as a substantial -180 favorite, the model is placing a confident bet on his sharper technical striking and movement carrying the day.

Conclusion

Expect a high-level striking chess match early as Kenan probes with pressure and Salikhov counters and evades. But Muslim Salikhov's precise countering, effective reactionary style, and defensive wizardry should allow him to frustrate and punish the aggressive Kenan en route to a decision win or late stoppage. Lay the -180 on the King of Kung Fu.