Gunnar Nelson vs. Takashi Sato - UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall Results & AI Breakdown

Winner: Gunnar Nelson by Decision - Unanimous

Fight Info:
Location: London, England, United Kingdom
Elevation: m
Weight Class: Welterweight
Wikipedia: None

The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.

The predictions below are shown in dark grey if they were correct, incorxrect predictions are shown in red.
Predictions
W = WTAI Model O = Profit Model P = Plain Model EV = Expected Value
Fighter
Confidence
EV
Odds
W
O
P
Gunnar Nelson
30
13
-9.7
-800
Takashi Sato
+360

Weighted Scoring Report

Fight Analysis

Stat Breakdown

Stat Gunnar Nelson Takashi Sato
Main Stats
Age 33 31
Height 71" 70"
Reach 72" 73"
Win Percentage 77.27% 80.00%
Wins 18 16
Losses 5 5
Wins at Weight Class 7 2
Losses at Weight Class 5 2
Striking Stats
Striking Accuracy 64.95% 40.32%
Significant Striking Accuracy 57.62% 37.97%
Strikes Landed Per Minute 2.513 3.511
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute 1.708 3.160
Knockdowns per Fight 0.115 1.053
Striking Impact Differential -27.62% -17.50%
Significant Striking Impact Differential -16.31% -11.75%
Striking Output Differential -50.62% -19.50%
Significant Striking Output Differential -36.77% -9.25%
Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 145.12% 156.00%
Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 192.83% 152.22%
Striking Defense Percentage 49.71% 50.00%
Takedown and Submission Stats
Submissions per Fight 0.919 0.000
Takedowns per Fight 1.724 0.527
Takedowns Attempted per Fight 3.103 1.053
Takedown Defense 50.00% 33.33%
Takedown Accuracy 55.56% 50.00%
Head Stats
Head Strikes Landed per Minute 1.287 2.668
Head Strikes Attempted per Minute 2.421 7.478
Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute 1.747 2.282
Body Stats
Body Strikes Landed per Minute 0.261 0.351
Body Strikes Attempted per Minute 0.352 0.667
Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute 1.027 1.755
Leg Stats
Leg Strikes Landed per Minute 0.161 0.140
Leg kicks Attempted per Minute 0.192 0.176
Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute 0.559 0.772
Clinch Stats
Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute 0.161 0.070
Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute 0.222 0.246
Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.774 0.808
Gunnar Nelson History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
Sept. 28, 2019 Welterweight Gunnar Nelson Gilbert Burns Gilbert Burns
March 16, 2019 Welterweight Leon Edwards Gunnar Nelson Leon Edwards
Dec. 8, 2018 Welterweight Alex Oliveira Gunnar Nelson Gunnar Nelson
July 16, 2017 Welterweight Gunnar Nelson Santiago Ponzinibbio Santiago Ponzinibbio
March 18, 2017 Welterweight Gunnar Nelson Alan Jouban Gunnar Nelson
May 8, 2016 Welterweight Albert Tumenov Gunnar Nelson Gunnar Nelson
Dec. 12, 2015 Welterweight Demian Maia Gunnar Nelson Demian Maia
July 11, 2015 Welterweight Gunnar Nelson Brandon Thatch Gunnar Nelson
Oct. 4, 2014 Welterweight Gunnar Nelson Rick Story Rick Story
July 19, 2014 Welterweight Gunnar Nelson Zak Cummings Gunnar Nelson
March 8, 2014 Welterweight Gunnar Nelson Omari Akhmedov Gunnar Nelson
Feb. 16, 2013 Welterweight Gunnar Nelson Jorge Santiago Gunnar Nelson
Sept. 29, 2012 Catch Weight DaMarques Johnson Gunnar Nelson Gunnar Nelson
Takashi Sato History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
Nov. 28, 2020 Welterweight Miguel Baeza Takashi Sato Miguel Baeza
June 27, 2020 Welterweight Takashi Sato Jason Witt Takashi Sato
Sept. 7, 2019 Welterweight Belal Muhammad Takashi Sato Belal Muhammad
April 27, 2019 Welterweight Ben Saunders Takashi Sato Takashi Sato