Alexander Volkov vs. Tom Aspinall - UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall Results & AI Breakdown

Winner: Tom Aspinall by Submission

Fight Info:

Location: London, England, United Kingdom

Elevation: m

Weight Class: Heavyweight

Wikipedia: None

The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.

The predictions below are shown in dark grey if they were correct, incorxrect predictions are shown in red.

Predictions

W = WTAI Model O = Profit Model P = Plain Model EV = Expected Value

Fighter

Confidence

Dec

Sub

TKO

Odds

Alexander Volkov

54.55%|6

0.0%|0

45.45%|5

+100

Tom Aspinall

15.9

0.0%|0

25.0%|1

75.0%|3

-152

Weighted Scoring Report

Basic Prediction

This prediction was made before July 20th, 2024 and does not include detailed insights.

Fight Analysis

Stat Breakdown

Stat	Alexander Volkov	Tom Aspinall	Weight Class Average
Main Stats
Age	33	28	34
Height	79"	77"	75"
Reach	80"	78"	78"
Win Percentage	79.07%	84.62%	77.28%
Wins	34	12
Losses	10	2
Wins at Weight Class	8	4
Losses at Weight Class	3	0
Striking Stats
Striking Accuracy	61.35%	66.67%	54.41%
Significant Striking Accuracy	56.58%	65.29%	49.24%
Strikes Landed Per Minute	6.566	7.648	5.538
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute	5.211	7.193	4.330
Knockdowns per Fight	0.267	2.731	0.991
Striking Impact Differential	39.45%	13.50%	-0.38%
Significant Striking Impact Differential	30.91%	13.25%	2.17%
Striking Output Differential	40.91%	8.75%	2.02%
Significant Striking Output Differential	33.09%	8.50%	5.00%
Striking Defense to Offense Ratio	61.54%	72.62%	89.42%
Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio	74.00%	77.22%	118.95%
Striking Defense Percentage	54.72%	70.11%	51.53%
Takedown and Submission Stats
Submissions per Fight	0.000	1.366	0.405
Takedowns per Fight	0.624	2.731	1.062
Takedowns Attempted per Fight	0.891	2.731	2.071
Takedown Defense	33.33%	100.00%	87.93%
Takedown Accuracy	70.00%	100.00%	27.96%
Head Stats
Head Strikes Landed per Minute	3.268	5.099	2.807
Head Strikes Attempted per Minute	6.809	8.832	6.849
Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute	1.824	0.911	2.661
Body Stats
Body Strikes Landed per Minute	1.040	1.002	0.764
Body Strikes Attempted per Minute	1.331	1.093	1.021
Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute	0.695	0.637	0.702
Leg Stats
Leg Strikes Landed per Minute	0.903	1.093	0.760
Leg kicks Attempted per Minute	1.070	1.093	0.881
Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute	0.671	0.819	0.680
Clinch Stats
Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute	0.529	1.457	0.547
Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute	0.784	2.094	0.770
Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute	0.202	0.273	0.459

Alexander Volkov History:

Date	Weight	Red Corner	Blue Corner	Winner
Oct. 30, 2021	Heavyweight	Alexander Volkov	Marcin Tybura	Alexander Volkov
June 26, 2021	Heavyweight	Ciryl Gane	Alexander Volkov	Ciryl Gane
Feb. 6, 2021	Heavyweight	Alistair Overeem	Alexander Volkov	Alexander Volkov
Oct. 24, 2020	Heavyweight	Alexander Volkov	Walt Harris	Alexander Volkov
June 20, 2020	Heavyweight	Curtis Blaydes	Alexander Volkov	Curtis Blaydes
Nov. 9, 2019	Heavyweight	Alexander Volkov	Greg Hardy	Alexander Volkov
Oct. 6, 2018	Heavyweight	Derrick Lewis	Alexander Volkov	Derrick Lewis
March 17, 2018	Heavyweight	Fabricio Werdum	Alexander Volkov	Alexander Volkov
Sept. 2, 2017	Heavyweight	Alexander Volkov	Stefan Struve	Alexander Volkov
April 15, 2017	Heavyweight	Alexander Volkov	Roy Nelson	Alexander Volkov
Nov. 19, 2016	Heavyweight	Timothy Johnson	Alexander Volkov	Alexander Volkov

Tom Aspinall History:

Date	Weight	Red Corner	Blue Corner	Winner
Sept. 4, 2021	Heavyweight	Tom Aspinall	Serghei Spivac	Tom Aspinall
Feb. 20, 2021	Heavyweight	Andrei Arlovski	Tom Aspinall	Tom Aspinall
Oct. 10, 2020	Heavyweight	Tom Aspinall	Alan Baudot	Tom Aspinall
July 25, 2020	Heavyweight	Tom Aspinall	Jake Collier	Tom Aspinall