Analysis: Navajo Stirling vs Rodolfo Bellato

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Navajo Stirling to Win

Score: 25
Odds:
Navajo Stirling: -245
Rodolfo Bellato: +186

Navajo Stirling's Breakdown

Stirling enters this fight as an undefeated prospect with serious finishing power, having scored four KOs in seven professional fights. His City Kickboxing training has refined his technical approach, as evidenced in his recent decision wins over Ivan Erslan and Tuco Tokkos. Against Erslan in May, Stirling showcased his primary weapons - body kicks that exploited his opponent's high guard and patient striking that set up a decisive straight right hand in round three that wobbled Erslan. His 6'4" frame with a 79" reach allows him to control distance effectively.

Stirling's signature techniques center around his leg kicks (landing 1.27 per minute) and body work (2.1 strikes per minute to the body). Against Tokkos, he demonstrated tactical maturity by avoiding aggressive exchanges and methodically outpointing his opponent over three rounds. His takedown game has evolved, averaging 1.5 per fight with solid 60% accuracy, though he showed improved takedown defense (67% recently) after early struggles.

The New Zealander's evolution is clear - he's moved from pure knockout hunting to a more calculated approach that maintains his finishing threat while ensuring he can win decisions when needed.

Navajo Stirling's Technical Vulnerabilities

Stirling's defensive metrics reveal concerning gaps that opponents have exploited. His 56% striking defense drops to just 44% in recent fights, indicating he's absorbing more damage as competition improves. Against Erslan, he sustained a cut from early pressure, showing vulnerability when opponents bring immediate aggression.

His takedown defense remains problematic at just 33% overall, though recent improvements to 67% suggest he's addressing this weakness. When hurt or pressured early, Stirling tends to shell up rather than move laterally, as seen when Erslan tested him in the opening minutes of their fight. His tendency to hunt for finishes can lead to overextension, particularly with his right hand combinations.

Rodolfo Bellato's Breakdown

Bellato brings devastating finishing ability, as demonstrated in his first-round KO of Ihor Potieria where he executed a brilliant overhand-to-knee-to-hook combination. His signature sequence involves stepping outside his opponent's lead foot, throwing a wide right hand to raise their guard, then securing double collar ties for crushing knees to the body. Against Potieria, this exact sequence created the opening for a finishing hook as his opponent's head rose from the knee impact.

However, Bellato's recent form is concerning. He's gone 1-2 in his last three UFC appearances, with the Paul Craig no-contest highlighting his vulnerability to unconventional situations. Against Jimmy Crute, Bellato showed his technical evolution by recovering from a disastrous first round (where he was dropped and nearly finished) to earn a majority draw through superior adaptability in rounds two and three.

His grappling remains sharp with 1.54 takedowns per fight and perfect takedown defense, but his striking defense has declined to just 38% recently.

Rodolfo Bellato's Technical Vulnerabilities

Bellato's defensive positioning in transitions creates dangerous moments, as seen against Crute when his failed takedown attempt resulted in him falling backward and banging his head on the canvas while simultaneously pulling Crute into mount. This technical flaw of compromising head position during scrambles has repeatedly put him in danger.

When hurt, Bellato drops into a static defensive shell that lacks mobility - Crute exploited this by dropping him into what was described as a "Jorge Masvidal planking celebration" position. His tendency to overcommit to power shots, particularly his loaded right hand, leaves him off-balance and vulnerable to counters. Against Craig, despite controlling early exchanges, he was caught by an illegal upkick while in top position, showing poor defensive awareness even from advantageous positions.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This matchup presents a fascinating clash where Stirling's length and body kick game could neutralize Bellato's signature overhand-to-knee combinations. Stirling's 79" reach advantage (versus Bellato's 75") allows him to stay outside the pocket where Bellato's devastating close-range sequences are most effective.

Bellato's tendency to step outside his opponent's lead foot to create angles for his overhand right plays directly into Stirling's leg kick game. When Bellato commits to this signature entry, he'll be in perfect range for Stirling's body kicks that proved so effective against Erslan's high guard.

However, Bellato's perfect takedown defense could neutralize Stirling's improved wrestling, forcing the fight to remain standing where both men carry knockout power.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early rounds favor Stirling's patient approach over Bellato's aggressive starts. Bellato's recent pattern of struggling in first rounds (nearly finished by Crute, caught by Craig's upkick) suggests Stirling's methodical pressure could create early advantages.

Mid-fight adjustments become crucial for Bellato, who showed against Crute that he can adapt when behind. However, Stirling's improved fight IQ and City Kickboxing coaching should help him maintain advantages rather than allowing Bellato to reset.

Championship rounds heavily favor Stirling, whose recent decision wins show improved cardio management, while Bellato's 1-2 recent record includes two fights that didn't reach deep waters.

Analysis and Key Points

• Reach and Range Control: Stirling's 4" reach advantage negates Bellato's close-range power combinations • Defensive Trends: Both fighters show declining defensive metrics, but Bellato's 38% recent striking defense is particularly concerning • Finishing Ability: Stirling's 0.5 knockdowns per fight versus Bellato's recent struggles to find finishes • Takedown Dynamics: Bellato's perfect takedown defense meets Stirling's improved but still developing wrestling • Recent Form: Stirling's 7-0 record versus Bellato's 1-2 UFC slide tells the story

Understanding the Prediction

The model heavily favors Stirling based on several key factors. Odds provided the largest boost (+11), reflecting the betting market's confidence in the undefeated prospect. Significant Striking Impact Differential (+9) and Striking Impact Differential (+4) highlight Stirling's superior damage output relative to what he absorbs. Striking Defense Percentage (+2) gives Stirling additional edge despite both fighters' defensive concerns. Reach (+1) accounts for Stirling's physical advantages, while Recent Takedowns Attempted (-1) slightly penalizes his wrestling-heavy approach.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI shows mixed results with these fighters. The model correctly predicted Stirling's decision win over Erslan, demonstrating accuracy with the undefeated prospect. However, it incorrectly favored Bellato in both his fights against Craig and Crute, suggesting the model may have overvalued Bellato's earlier finishing ability while underestimating his recent defensive decline.

Conclusion

Stirling's undefeated record, physical advantages, and recent tactical evolution make him a clear favorite against a declining Bellato who's shown repeated defensive vulnerabilities. The New Zealander's patient striking approach and improved takedown defense should neutralize Bellato's power while his superior reach and body kick game create consistent scoring opportunities. WolfTicketsAI's prediction of Stirling by decision or late finish reflects the most likely outcome.