Analysis: Jamie Mullarkey vs Rolando Bedoya

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Jamie Mullarkey to Win

Score: 2
Odds:
Jamie Mullarkey: -113
Rolando Bedoya: -113

Jamie Mullarkey's Breakdown

Mullarkey brings a refined pressure-striking approach that's evolved significantly through his UFC tenure. His signature techniques center around a devastating shifting right hook that he sets up by stepping through with his right foot while slipping his head outside his opponent's lead shoulder. Against Francisco Prado, this technique proved decisive when he dropped Prado with a perfectly timed right hook after switching to southpaw. Mullarkey's jab has become exceptionally sharp—particularly evident against Michael Johnson where he used it to disrupt rhythm and set up his power shots. His clinch game has transformed from purely defensive to offensive, showcasing improved collar tie control and devastating knee strikes. Against Mauricio Ruffy, Mullarkey's double collar tie setup led to the fight-ending knee that dropped his opponent.

Mullarkey's recent evolution includes better integration of low kicks after punching combinations, adding a two-level attack that punishes opponents focused solely on his boxing. His pressure-cutting has become more methodical, using consistent forward movement to gradually limit escape routes rather than explosive rushes.

Jamie Mullarkey's Technical Vulnerabilities

Mullarkey's most glaring vulnerability is his tendency to leave his head stationary on the centerline after throwing his right hand. Against Nasrat Haqparast, this flaw proved fatal when Haqparast timed a perfect left straight counter that ended the fight. Mullarkey consistently fails to move his head off the centerline after combinations, making him susceptible to straight counter punches. His defensive positioning during leg kick recovery creates another exploitable gap—against Ruffy, he would stand flat-footed after committing to kicks, allowing counter rights to land flush. When backing up under pressure, Mullarkey shells up and moves straight backward rather than circling out, making him vulnerable to being trapped against the fence where opponents can land clean shots.

Rolando Bedoya's Breakdown

Bedoya operates as a dynamic southpaw striker with a preference for counter-striking from his rear hand. His signature technique involves leaning back and firing his right hook as opponents enter his range—a technique that proved effective against Jai Herbert when he caught him with a perfectly timed counter in round three. Bedoya shows tactical versatility through stance switching, using orthodox positioning to establish his jab before retreating to southpaw for power combinations. Against Herbert, this created timing disruptions that allowed him to land his straight right hand after feinting with knee raises. His clinch control through double collar ties maximizes his height advantage, setting up devastating knee strikes to the head.

Bedoya's striking arsenal includes effective inside leg kicks that he uses to disrupt opponent rhythm, though these have become predictable patterns that savvy opponents exploit.

Rolando Bedoya's Technical Vulnerabilities

Bedoya's most significant weakness lies in his defensive grappling against single-leg takedowns, particularly when opponents change levels after he throws his right hook. His tendency to overcommit to his rear hand creates openings for opponents to shoot underneath his punches. When forced to retreat, Bedoya relies heavily on leaning backward rather than implementing lateral movement, creating predictable defensive patterns. Against Song Kenan, this vulnerability was exposed repeatedly when Kenan countered Bedoya's inside low kicks with powerful punches that dropped him twice. His right hand dependency makes him one-dimensional in extended exchanges, and his defensive gaps when throwing low kicks have been consistently exploited—leaving him open to counters as he resets his position.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This matchup presents a fascinating clash between Mullarkey's relentless forward pressure and Bedoya's counter-striking approach. Mullarkey's signature shifting right hook could find success against Bedoya's tendency to lean back defensively—when Bedoya leans away from strikes, he often leaves his body exposed, creating opportunities for Mullarkey's body-head combinations that proved effective against Prado. Bedoya's right hook counters pose a significant threat to Mullarkey's predictable entries, particularly exploiting Mullarkey's habit of leaving his head centered after throwing combinations.

The key technical battle will occur when Bedoya attempts his inside leg kicks. Mullarkey's improved defensive awareness could allow him to time these kicks and counter with his shifting combinations, similar to how Song Kenan exploited this pattern. Conversely, if Bedoya can time Mullarkey's forward pressure with his counter right hand, he could catch Mullarkey during his vulnerable entry phases.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early rounds favor Mullarkey's pressure approach, as his improved jab and methodical cage-cutting should disrupt Bedoya's counter-striking rhythm. Bedoya's best opportunities come when Mullarkey overcommits to his entries, creating windows for the counter right hand that serves as his primary weapon.

Mid-fight adjustments will prove crucial—if Mullarkey can force clinch exchanges, his superior collar tie control and knee strikes should dominate. However, if Bedoya successfully times Mullarkey's patterns, his counter-striking could shift momentum.

Championship rounds likely favor Mullarkey's conditioning and relentless pressure, as his cardio improvements allow him to maintain offensive output while Bedoya's counter-striking approach requires precise timing that may deteriorate with fatigue.

Analysis and Key Points

• Mullarkey's pressure vs Bedoya's counters: Mullarkey's methodical forward movement should disrupt Bedoya's counter-timing • Clinch advantage: Mullarkey's evolved clinch game with collar ties and knees should dominate close-quarters exchanges
• Defensive vulnerabilities: Both fighters leave themselves exposed—Mullarkey after right hands, Bedoya during leg kick recoveries • Experience factor: Mullarkey's deeper UFC experience against varied opposition gives him tactical advantages • Finishing ability: Both have shown knockout power, but Mullarkey's recent improvements suggest better defensive awareness

Understanding the Prediction

The model's confidence in Mullarkey stems from several key statistical advantages. Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight increased the prediction score by 4.0, reflecting Mullarkey's improved grappling integration that Bedoya has struggled to defend. Odds and Recent Win Percentage each added 3.0 to the score, indicating the model recognizes Mullarkey's recent improvements despite his 1-2 record in his last three fights. Recent Significant Striking Impact Differential decreased the score by 2.0, acknowledging Bedoya's power striking, but Mullarkey's Striking Defense Percentage advantage suggests better defensive fundamentals.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a mixed history with both fighters. For Mullarkey, the model correctly predicted his victories over John Makdessi (0.72 score) and Michael Johnson (0.33 score), but accurately predicted his losses to Nasrat Haqparast and Jalin Turner. With Bedoya, the model has been less successful, incorrectly predicting victories against both Jai Herbert (0.53 score) and Song Kenan (0.26 score). This suggests the model may have initially overvalued Bedoya's counter-striking approach against more experienced UFC competition.

Conclusion

Mullarkey's technical evolution, superior UFC experience, and improved defensive awareness make him the clear choice to defeat Bedoya. His pressure-striking approach should neutralize Bedoya's counter-game while his clinch dominance provides a clear path to victory. WolfTicketsAI's prediction reflects a fighter who has learned from his setbacks and developed the technical tools to exploit Bedoya's defensive vulnerabilities.