Analysis: Pannie Kianzad vs Macy Chiasson

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Macy Chiasson to Win

Score: 11 Odds: Pannie Kianzad: 165 Macy Chiasson: -200

Pannie Kianzad's Breakdown

Pannie Kianzad is a technical striker with crisp boxing and good footwork. She prefers to keep fights standing where she can utilize her jab and straight punches to outscore opponents. While her striking is her strength, she has been improving her grappling and clinch work to become a more well-rounded mixed martial artist.

In recent fights, Kianzad has shown vulnerabilities against pressure fighters who can close the distance and negate her striking advantage. This was evident in her last loss to Ketlen Vieira who was able to take Kianzad down and control her on the mat.

Macy Chiasson's Breakdown

Macy Chiasson is a large bantamweight who utilizes her size and length well. She has an evolving striking game, improving in her ability to maintain distance with a long jab and straight punches. She complements this with a strong grappling base that she can fall back on.

Chiasson's most recent fights have revealed some potential limitations. She was knocked out by Irene Aldana in September 2022, exposing a vulnerability to power strikers. Prior to that, she lost to Raquel Pennington by submission, indicating potential holes in her submission defense.

Previous Fight Breakdown

Kianzad and Chiasson fought once before in November 2018, with Chiasson winning by submission. In that fight, Chiasson was able to use her size and grappling advantage to get Kianzad to the mat and secure the finish. This result is worth noting as it demonstrates a clear path to victory for Chiasson if she can replicate that game plan.

Analysis and Key Points

This fight likely comes down to whether Kianzad can keep the fight standing and outpoint Chiasson with her technical boxing, or if Chiasson can use her size and grappling to ground Kianzad as she did in their first meeting.

Kianzad's path to victory involves using her footwork to maintain distance, working off her jab, and mixing in combinations to pile up points. She'll want to avoid tie-ups and grappling exchanges with the larger Chiasson.

For Chiasson, getting the fight to the mat is key. She can use her reach to set up clinches and takedowns, then utilize her top game to score damage and hunt for submissions. On the feet, she'll want to pressure Kianzad and not allow her to settle into a striking rhythm.

Understanding the Prediction

The model is favoring Chiasson here likely due to the betting odds (-200 for Chiasson vs +165 for Kianzad) and Chiasson's 3-inch reach advantage.

Other key factors per the SHAP data: - Kianzad's better recent win percentage is working in her favor - Chiasson's superior striking defense is seen as an advantage - The striking metrics slightly favor Chiasson in terms of impact and volume

However, the model seems to be putting a lot of weight on the odds and reach, as most other metrics are either close between the two fighters or favor Kianzad.

Past Model Performance

As noted earlier, the model has had mixed results predicting these two fighters recently:

• It's 1-1 in Kianzad's last two fights
• It's 0-2 in Chiasson's last two fights

This suggests that the prediction here should be taken with a grain of salt, as the model has struggled to get a consistent read on both fighters. Bettors should be cautious, as this feels like a difficult fight to predict with high confidence.

Conclusion

The model's pick of Chiasson seems to be rooted in her betting line and physical advantages. However, Kianzad's technical striking and recent form make her a live underdog.

With the model's shakiness in recent predictions for both women, this shapes up as a challenging fight to bet on. The pick is Chiasson, but not with a ton of conviction. Her grappling likely gives her more paths to victory, but Kianzad certainly has a shot if she can keep it standing and avoid Chiasson's power.