Analysis: Natan Levy vs Mike Davis

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Mike Davis to Win

Score: 14 Odds: Natan Levy: 240 Mike Davis: -310

Natan Levy's Breakdown

Natan Levy is a promising up-and-comer in the UFC's lightweight division with an 8-1 record overall and 2-1 in the UFC. He's coming off back-to-back unanimous decision wins over Mike Breeden and Genaro Valdez, showcasing his grappling skills with 11 takedown attempts per fight on average.

However, Levy's striking defense is a potential weakness, absorbing 4.1 significant strikes per minute. While he's only been finished once, his lack of stopping power (0 KO/TKOs) means he often has to go the distance, which could be problematic against heavy-handed opponents.

Mike Davis's Breakdown

Mike Davis is a well-rounded fighter with a 10-2 MMA record and 3-1 in the UFC. He's won three straight, most recently defeating Viacheslav Borshchev by unanimous decision. Davis has serious knockout power, finishing 5 of his 10 wins by KO/TKO including a highlight reel stoppage of Thomas Gifford.

Grappling could be an issue for Davis, as he's been submitted before and only defends takedowns at a 50% rate. But his 64% takedown accuracy shows he's capable of implementing his own wrestling game plan.

Analysis and Key Points

This is a classic grappler vs striker matchup. Levy will look to take Davis down and control him on the mat, while Davis wants to keep it standing and hunt for the KO.

The key for Levy is to close the distance safely and not get caught coming in. His 11 takedown attempts per fight average is impressive but he'll need to convert more than his usual 54% to win.

For Davis, stopping takedowns is priority number one. If he can keep it standing, his 6.02 significant strikes landed per minute and big power advantage should be the difference. Davis' submission loss to Gilbert Burns is concerning, but Burns is an elite grappler and Levy doesn't have the same caliber of BJJ.

Ultimately, I favor Davis' striking and superior strength of schedule. Levy is talented but untested against this level of opponent. Unless he can consistently take Davis down, it's likely Beast Boy's power will be too much.

Understanding the Prediction

The odds are a key factor in the model favoring Davis. At -310, the betting market sees Davis as a sizeable favorite.

Some of Davis' other advantages per the model are significant striking impact differential (lands 2 more powerful shots per minute than absorbed), striking accuracy (57% to Levy's 53%), and significant striking defense (58% to Levy's 54%).

The one area that favors Levy is recent takedown attempts per fight. He averages 10.8 attempts to Davis' 4.25. However, unless Levy can finish those takedowns at a high percentage and keep Davis grounded, the model believes Davis' striking will still be the difference.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has only predicted one fight for each man: - Correctly picked Levy over Breeden with 75% confidence - Correctly picked Davis over Borshchev with 77% confidence

So while it's a small sample size, the model does have a 100% hit rate on these two fighters. The 77% confidence score on Davis' last fight is in line with the 69% implied odds of his -310 betting line.

Conclusion

WolfTicketsAI predicts a Mike Davis victory, Davis' striking prowess and big edge in strength of schedule make him the rightful favorite. He will need to show improved takedown defense against a grapple-heavy approach from Levy. But if Davis can keep this fight standing, he should be able to pick up another KO/TKO victory.

For Levy to pull the upset, he needs to take Davis out of his comfort zone with repeated takedowns and control time on the mat. It's a tall order, and Davis' power makes every entry attempt dangerous.

The model has a limited track record on these fighters, so some caution is warranted on a hefty -310 moneyline. But Davis deserves to be a solid favorite and the pick is justified. Look for "Beast Boy" to make a statement in his lightweight debut.