Analysis: Jaqueline Amorim vs Cory McKenna

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Jaqueline Amorim to Win

Score: 18 Odds: Jaqueline Amorim: 102 Cory McKenna: -120

Jaqueline Amorim's Breakdown

Jaqueline Amorim is a rising star in the UFC's strawweight division with a strong grappling base rooted in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Her ability to control opponents on the ground and secure submissions has been a key theme in her performances. In her most recent fight against Montserrat Conejo Ruiz, Amorim showcased her ground dominance, attacking with arm bars and adapting her game plan to secure a TKO victory in the 3rd round.

Amorim's striking, while still developing, has shown improvement in her takedown setups and transitions to fight-ending sequences. Her evolution as a more well-rounded fighter will be crucial as she faces higher level competition.

However, Amorim is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Sam Hughes in her previous fight. This setback may raise questions about her ability to implement her grappling against opponents who can defend takedowns and keep the fight standing.

Cory McKenna's Breakdown

Cory McKenna is a promising young fighter with a well-rounded skill set. She has shown the ability to win fights both on the feet and on the ground, with a solid striking arsenal and an aggressive grappling approach.

McKenna is riding a two-fight win streak, most recently defeating Cheyanne Vlismas by unanimous decision and submitting Miranda Granger before that. These victories showcase her continued growth and ability to adapt to different stylistic matchups.

However, McKenna did suffer a split decision loss to Elise Reed in March 2022, suggesting some potential vulnerabilities, especially against opponents who can match her pace and output.

Analysis and Key Points

This matchup pits Amorim's high-level grappling against McKenna's more balanced approach. Amorim will likely look to get the fight to the ground early and often, using her BJJ black belt skills to control position and hunt for submissions.

McKenna's path to victory involves keeping the fight standing and using her striking to maintain distance and pick apart Amorim. She'll need to showcase sharp takedown defense and get up quickly if the fight does hit the mat.

The clash of styles and the fact that both women are still relatively early in their UFC careers makes this a compelling matchup with a fairly even betting line. Amorim's grappling pedigree and finishing instincts give her a slight edge, but McKenna's more well-rounded game and recent winning performances can't be overlooked.

Understanding the Prediction

The model's prediction favoring Amorim aligns with several key statistical factors:

Amorim has a significant edge in striking impact differential (33 vs 28.25), suggesting she lands with more power. Her advantages in significant striking output and impact differentials (24 and 23 vs 10.5 and -9.25) also point to her being the more effective striker overall.

Amorim's reach advantage (68" vs 58") could help her control range and land strikes from the outside.

While McKenna has better recent average striking output differential (68.11 vs -7.67), Amorim's superior recent significant striking impact differential (-3.37 vs -11.34) may carry more weight.

Defensively, Amorim has the edge in striking defense percentage (45.49% vs 38.98%) and significant striking defense percentage (62.86% vs 47.21%), hinting she's the harder fighter to hit cleanly.

Past Model Performance

The model has only one past prediction for Amorim, correctly picking her to defeat Ruiz. The sample size is too small to draw concrete conclusions about the model's accuracy.

For McKenna, the model has gone 2-1, but was wrong in her most recent fight, siding with Vlismas. This incorrect prediction in a closely contested bout adds some doubt to the model's current pick.

Neither fighter has enough of a track record with the model to instill strong confidence in the prediction. Bettors should be cautious and consider other factors.

Conclusion

We predict Jaqueline Amorim to emerge victorious over Cory McKenna, likely by utilizing her high-level grappling to ground McKenna and secure a submission.

However, McKenna's multi-faceted skill set and the model's mixed historical performance predicting both fighters make this a risky bet. The stylistic intrigue and potential for either woman to notch a signature win adds appeal, but I'd approach with caution from a gambling perspective.

Ultimately, this fight will test Amorim's ability to impose her grappling against an opponent determined to keep it standing. If successful, it could vault her into the division's top tier. For McKenna, it's a chance to show her continued evolution and stake her claim as a future contender at 115 lbs.