Analysis: Bekzat Almakhan vs Aleksandre Topuria

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Aleksandre Topuria to Win

Score: 17
Odds:
Bekzat Almakhan: -104
Aleksandre Topuria: -122

Bekzat Almakhan's Breakdown

Almakhan enters this fight having won 2 of his last 3 UFC bouts, but the context matters. His most recent performance against Brad Katona at UFC 315 was a statement—a devastating right uppercut at 1:04 of Round 1 that made him the first person to ever finish Katona. The timing was textbook: Katona attempted a level change, and Almakhan caught him right up the middle with perfect placement to the jaw, followed by hammerfists to seal the finish.

That performance showcased what Almakhan can do with a full camp. His karate background (8 years, black belt) translates into explosive power generation, particularly with his right hand. Whether it's a hook, straight, overhand, or off a one-two, that right hand is his best weapon. Against Katona, his blistering in-and-out movement confused the opponent before the finish. He also demonstrated excellent follow-up aggression—the moment Katona dropped, Almakhan was on him with ground strikes.

But his UFC debut against Umar Nurmagomedov exposed critical flaws. Almakhan buzzed Nurmagomedov 30 seconds in with an overhand, but then became predictable. Every time Nurmagomedov jabbed, Almakhan threw the same committed overhand counter. Nurmagomedov read this pattern easily, timing his level changes to perfection. Almakhan spent most of the fight defending wrestling, showing decent survival skills—timely bridges from mount, scrambling back to his feet—but couldn't generate enough offense to win rounds.

His striking stats reveal a power-puncher profile: 1.87 knockdowns per fight historically, but only 0.68 significant strikes landed per minute. He throws usually in twos, creating predictable patterns. His straight-left-to-right-hand combination is his bread and butter.

Bekzat Almakhan's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Predictable Counter-Punching Pattern
Against Nurmagomedov, Almakhan's tendency to throw committed overhands in response to jabs became his downfall. Every jab from Nurmagomedov triggered the same overhand counter, allowing Umar to time his single-leg takedowns perfectly. This one-dimensional approach makes him readable against fighters who can pump jabs and change levels. The transcript specifically noted that if Almakhan had mixed in uppercuts instead of overhands when Nurmagomedov shot, he might have defended the takedowns more effectively.

2. Defensive Hand Positioning and Striking Defense
Almakhan's striking defense sits at just 27.36% overall and 16.49% recently—alarmingly low numbers. He's been clipped multiple times throughout his career because he doesn't keep his hands up consistently, particularly vulnerable to kicks. He absorbs 4.05 head strikes per minute while landing only 0.50, creating a massive defensive liability. Against Nurmagomedov, he absorbed 2.55 head strikes per minute in recent data, showing this vulnerability persists.

3. Ground Positioning and Grappling Advancement
While Almakhan showed strong survival instincts against Nurmagomedov's elite wrestling—executing bridges from mount and recovering half guard—his biggest weakness is improving positions on the ground. His takedown defense sits at 0% overall and 30.67% recently. Once taken down, he's strong on top with good ground-and-pound, but struggles to advance position. Against Nurmagomedov, he was repeatedly told to get up while on top, highlighting this positional stagnation issue.

Aleksandre Topuria's Breakdown

Topuria brings a refined boxing-centric system that's proven effective in his 6-1 UFC run. His most recent performance against Colby Thicknesse showcased his systematic approach: high-guard positioning, ramrod jab behind a raised lead shoulder, and relentless cage-cutting pressure. He doesn't hunt for home run shots—he constructs openings through positional dominance.

His signature sequence starts with the jab as both offensive weapon and positional tool, forcing opponents toward the fence. Once there, he capitalizes on predictable escape patterns. Against Thicknesse, every time Colby tried to circle off the fence while jabbing, Topuria tracked him with overhand rights that crossed the top of the extended jab. The timing exploited weight distribution—Thicknesse's feet were in transition during lateral movement, maximizing impact while minimizing defensive options.

Topuria's body jab is another staple, driven directly in front of his shoulder while maintaining high lead shoulder position. This creates consistent threat levels that force opponents into static defensive postures, opening power punching opportunities. His wrestling integration shows sophistication—he landed a spectacular suplex against Thicknesse and demonstrates strong scrambling ability. He understands positional wrestling as a striking setup rather than a separate discipline.

His stats reflect a complete fighter: 69.47% striking defense overall (70.08% significant), 59.09% striking accuracy, and 4.33 strikes landed per minute. He's landed 2.73 significant strikes per minute while maintaining 100% takedown defense in his UFC career. His striking impact differential sits at +25, showing he's winning the damage exchanges.

Aleksandre Topuria's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Static Head Movement Creating Counter Windows
When Topuria slips punches in open space—particularly against doubled jabs—he roots his feet completely and moves his head in predictable side-to-side patterns. Against Thicknesse, this allowed consistent right hand counters when doubled jabs prompted Topuria's slip sequences. The technical issue: he prioritizes head movement over footwork, planting to slip rather than maintaining a mobile base. This same pattern appeared against Bryce Mitchell, where it facilitated takedown entries.

2. Low Kick Exposure During Slip Sequences
The rooted foot positioning during head movement creates extended windows for low kicks. When opponents feint upper body attacks to trigger his slip response, his planted lead leg becomes a static target. Thicknesse exploited this repeatedly, landing low kicks as Topuria completed his slip movements. This accumulated damage could theoretically compromise his pressure game over championship distance.

3. Takedown Susceptibility From Static Positions
Most critically, this planted head movement created a clean double leg opportunity for Bryce Mitchell. The takedown wasn't completed through overwhelming wrestling skill but because Topuria's feet were planted and weight was distributed for striking defense, not takedown defense. Mitchell shot as Topuria slipped, and the compromised base position allowed completion of a technique Topuria would normally stuff with his 100% takedown defense rate.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This matchup presents a fascinating clash: Almakhan's explosive power-punching against Topuria's systematic pressure boxing.

Topuria's Advantages:

Topuria's double jab system could be devastating here. Almakhan has shown a tendency to throw committed overhands in response to jabs—exactly the pattern Topuria can exploit. By pumping doubled jabs, Topuria can trigger Almakhan's predictable overhand counter, then either slip and counter with his own right hand or time a level change as Almakhan commits to the punch. This mirrors what Nurmagomedov did, except Topuria will punish with boxing counters rather than wrestling.

Topuria's cage-cutting pressure neutralizes Almakhan's in-and-out movement. Against Katona, Almakhan used blistering movement to create openings, but Topuria specializes in reducing cage space and forcing opponents into predictable escape patterns along the fence. Once Almakhan is backed up, his defensive vulnerabilities become magnified—he absorbs 4.05 head strikes per minute and has only 27.36% striking defense.

Topuria's body jab will find a home. Almakhan absorbs body strikes (0.0 per minute absorbed recently suggests limited data, but historically he's been hit to the body), and Topuria's systematic body attack creates additional layers that force more complex defensive reads. Almakhan's tendency to throw in twos means he's not mixing up his defensive looks enough to handle Topuria's varied attack.

Almakhan's Paths to Victory:

Almakhan's right uppercut—the same shot that finished Katona—could exploit Topuria's static head movement. When Topuria plants his feet to slip doubled jabs, that's the exact moment Almakhan's uppercut becomes available. The transcript from the Nurmagomedov fight specifically noted that uppercuts would have been more effective than overhands when opponents dropped levels. If Almakhan can recognize Topuria's slip pattern and time the uppercut, his power could end the fight.

Topuria's 0.0 knockdowns per fight in the UFC suggests he hasn't faced someone with Almakhan's one-punch power. That right hand dropped Nurmagomedov—one of the division's elite—and obliterated Katona. If Almakhan lands clean, Topuria hasn't shown the ability to recover from that kind of power.

The early blitz could work. Almakhan finished Katona in 64 seconds and dropped Nurmagomedov 30 seconds in. If he comes out aggressively and lands before Topuria establishes his systematic pressure, the fight could end early. Topuria's fights typically build over time as he establishes cage position—he hasn't been tested by someone who can end things in the first exchange.

Critical Technical Clash:

The key sequence will be Topuria's double jab versus Almakhan's overhand counter. If Almakhan throws the same predictable overhand he showed against Nurmagomedov, Topuria will slip and counter or time a takedown. But if Almakhan mixes in uppercuts or varies his timing, he can catch Topuria's static slip pattern.

Topuria's pressure game forces Almakhan into the worst possible position: backing up with poor striking defense. Almakhan's 16.49% recent striking defense percentage means he's getting hit constantly when under pressure. Topuria's systematic fence-cutting will put Almakhan in extended defensive sequences where his vulnerabilities compound.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early Rounds:

Topuria will immediately establish his jab and begin cage-cutting. Almakhan will look for the early power shot—he's most dangerous in the first minute when opponents haven't adjusted to his speed and power. If Almakhan doesn't land early, Topuria's pressure will begin forcing him backward.

The first time Topuria pumps a double jab will reveal Almakhan's adjustment. If he throws the predictable overhand, Topuria will recognize the pattern and exploit it repeatedly. If Almakhan shows discipline and mixes in uppercuts or varies his responses, the fight becomes more competitive.

Mid-Fight Adjustments:

Topuria's systematic approach means he'll continue pressuring regardless of early success or failure. Against Thicknesse, even when Colby found success with counters in open space, Topuria immediately reestablished forward pressure to minimize those exchanges. He'll do the same here—any Almakhan success will be met with renewed pressure to force the fight back to the fence.

Almakhan's cardio and defensive durability become questions. He's absorbed massive striking volume in his UFC career (4.05 head strikes per minute), and Topuria lands 4.33 strikes per minute overall. If Almakhan can't establish his power early, he'll be defending extended sequences where his poor striking defense creates accumulating damage.

Late Rounds:

Topuria's gas tank and systematic approach favor him in later rounds. He maintained pressure against Thicknesse for three full rounds, never slowing his cage-cutting or combination output. Almakhan hasn't shown the same durability—his recent win percentage of 33% suggests he's struggled in his UFC run when fights extend.

Almakhan's power remains a threat throughout, but his predictable patterns become more exploitable as fatigue sets in. Topuria's superior striking defense (69.47% vs 27.36%) means he'll be fresher and sharper late, while Almakhan will have absorbed significant volume.

Analysis and Key Points

• Almakhan's power is real: That right hand dropped Nurmagomedov and obliterated Katona. Topuria hasn't faced this level of one-punch power in the UFC.

• Predictable patterns doom Almakhan: Against Nurmagomedov, his tendency to throw the same overhand counter in response to jabs allowed Umar to time takedowns perfectly. Topuria will exploit this same pattern with boxing counters.

• Striking defense disparity is massive: Topuria's 69.47% striking defense versus Almakhan's 27.36% means Almakhan will absorb far more damage in extended exchanges.

• Topuria's systematic pressure neutralizes Almakhan's movement: The in-and-out movement that confused Katona won't work against Topuria's cage-cutting. Once backed up, Almakhan's defensive vulnerabilities become magnified.

• Almakhan's uppercut could exploit Topuria's static slips: The same uppercut that finished Katona is available when Topuria plants his feet to slip doubled jabs. This is Almakhan's clearest technical path to victory.

• Topuria's double jab system is tailor-made for this matchup: Almakhan's tendency to counter jabs with overhands gives Topuria the exact pattern he exploits with slips and counters.

• Almakhan's recent UFC struggles: He's 2-1 in his last three, but the loss to Nurmagomedov exposed his predictability against elite opposition. His 33% recent win percentage suggests he's struggled more than his overall record indicates.

Understanding the Prediction

The model heavily favors Topuria based on several key statistical disparities:

• Striking Defense Percentage decreased the prediction score by 6 points—the largest single factor. Topuria's 69.47% striking defense versus Almakhan's 27.36% creates a massive advantage in extended exchanges.

• Odds increased the score by 4 points, reflecting Topuria's -122 line versus Almakhan's -104. The betting market recognizes Topuria's technical advantages.

• Significant Striking Impact Differential decreased the score by 3 points. Topuria's +3 differential versus Almakhan's -29 shows who's winning damage exchanges consistently.

• Recent Significant Striking Impact Differential decreased the score by 2 points, confirming this trend continues in recent performances.

• Recent Win Percentage decreased the score by 2 points. Topuria's 86% recent win rate versus Almakhan's 33% shows who's been more effective in the UFC recently.

• Striking Impact Differential decreased the score by 2 points, with Topuria at +25 versus Almakhan at -66.5, showing Topuria consistently wins striking exchanges.

The model recognizes that Topuria's superior striking defense, consistent performance, and positive impact differentials create significant advantages over Almakhan's power-punching but defensively vulnerable style.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has limited history with both fighters. It predicted Brad Katona to win against Almakhan with a 0.74 confidence score, and that prediction was incorrect—Almakhan finished Katona in 64 seconds. This shows the model can underestimate Almakhan's finishing power when he has a full camp.

However, that same performance revealed Almakhan's best attributes: explosive power, excellent timing on the uppercut, and finishing instinct. The question is whether those attributes can overcome Topuria's systematic pressure and superior defensive fundamentals.

The model has no prediction history with Topuria, creating some uncertainty. But his technical profile—refined boxing system, excellent striking defense, systematic cage-cutting—aligns with fighters who consistently outperform expectations against power-punchers with defensive vulnerabilities.

Conclusion

Topuria takes this fight through systematic pressure boxing and superior defensive fundamentals. Almakhan's power is real—that right hand can end any fight—but his predictable counter-punching patterns and alarming striking defense percentage (27.36%) create too many opportunities for Topuria to exploit. The double jab system that troubled Thicknesse will trigger Almakhan's overhand counter repeatedly, allowing Topuria to slip and counter or time level changes. Once Topuria establishes cage position, Almakhan's defensive vulnerabilities compound as he absorbs volume he can't defend. Almakhan's best chance is landing the uppercut early when Topuria plants his feet to slip, but Topuria's systematic approach and superior striking defense make him the clear pick. WolfTicketsAI's confidence score of 17 reflects the technical advantages that favor Topuria's refined system over Almakhan's explosive but flawed approach.