Analysis: Alex Perez vs Asu Almabayev

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Asu Almabayev to Win

Score: 18
Odds:
Alex Perez: +172
Asu Almabayev: -225

Alex Perez's Breakdown

Perez enters this fight in a precarious position, having lost two of his last three UFC bouts and coming off a brutal KO/TKO loss to Tatsuro Taira in June 2024. That Taira fight exposed critical flaws that remain unaddressed: his forward-leaning posture makes him a sitting duck for uppercuts, and his offensive counterpunching—built around inside slips to throw cross counters and left hooks—creates perfect windows for opponents to secure collar ties and clinch control.

His signature techniques include the cross counter over the jab (slipping inside and throwing his right hand across the top) and the left hook off inside slip. Against Nicolau, these counters worked beautifully because Nicolau is a pure counter-puncher who circles the cage waiting to time single strikes. Perez disrupted that rhythm with constant feinting, lateral steps, and body attacks—particularly his right hand to the body—that forced Nicolau out of his comfort zone. The knockout came in Round 2 when Perez cut off the cage and landed a four-punch combination (right to body, right hook to chin, left hand, final right hook) as both fighters exchanged.

But against grapplers, Perez's system collapses. Taira repeatedly caught his head during slip sequences, established double collar ties, and attacked with knees and elbows. When Perez tried to escape using his over-tie counter (grabbing over Taira's arms and rotating his shoulder to pop off the grips), Taira adjusted by throwing right uppercuts that exploited Perez's forward-leaning posture. The finish came via a body triangle that torqued Perez's knee laterally until it buckled—a position-induced injury rather than a traditional submission.

Against Mokaev, Perez showed excellent defensive cage wrestling, preventing hand-locking and threatening ninja chokes that forced Mokaev to abandon proper takedown mechanics. But Perez offered zero offensive grappling, never attempting his own takedowns or capitalizing when Mokaev sat to poor positions. His striking has regressed to calf-kick spam from an extremely short stance with poor recovery positioning. He absorbed a devastating body knee in the clinch that visibly folded him, exposing gaps in his guard structure when tied up.

Alex Perez's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Collar Tie Susceptibility During Offensive Counterpunching
Every time Perez slips inside to throw his cross counter or left hook, his head is available and forward-positioned. Against Taira, this became the defining vulnerability—Taira would flash the jab, then immediately secure a double collar tie (both hands behind the head with forearms against collarbones) and attack with knees and elbows. Perez's over-tie escape worked occasionally, but he couldn't solve the problem completely. Any opponent with competent clinch skills can exploit this window.

2. Uppercut Vulnerability from Forward-Leaning Posture
Perez consistently runs into his shots with his head forward of his hips. When opponents give ground, he steps forward (often while attempting to slip), and his head comes forward over his hips, creating a massive target for upward-angled uppercuts. Taira landed these cleanly multiple times by deliberately giving ground and launching right uppercuts as Perez pressed forward. This postural flaw compounds when combined with his tendency to bend at the waist during defensive movements.

3. Body Attack Susceptibility in the Clinch
Mokaev landed a body-folding knee during a clinch exchange that Perez never recovered from. His defensive shell collapses when pressured into the clinch, leaving his midsection exposed. Against Pantoja, Perez turned his hips and shoulders during pocket exchanges in ways that allowed immediate back takes—a fundamental failure to maintain proper hip alignment and shoulder positioning when exiting combinations.

Asu Almabayev's Breakdown

Almabayev is a grappling specialist who has built his entire system around compensating for being undersized even at flyweight. His signature technique is the back body lock with a jump-over-the-back transition: from the rear clinch, he off-balances opponents, then jumps over their back to secure hooks. His compact frame makes this geometry work where larger fighters would struggle. He attempts this multiple times per fight, accepting the risk of falling off over the top as a reasonable trade-off for the high-percentage finishing position.

Once on top, Almabayev's pressure is suffocating. Against Ochoa, he drove his hips forward relentlessly, pressing Ochoa's heels into his glutes to neutralize butterfly guard hooks. This prevented Ochoa from extending his legs to create leverage for off-balancing or sweeps. Ochoa threatened triangle chokes but couldn't generate the angles necessary because Almabayev's forward hip pressure pinned him in a mechanically disadvantaged position. The fight ended with a convincing decision built on positional dominance.

Against Nicolau, Almabayev implemented a systematic pressure-passing system that prevented Nicolau from creating scrambles or submission opportunities. His control is described as "smothering"—he maintains heavy hip pressure and tight connection, driving his weight into opponents to minimize space and exhaust them. When opponents establish butterfly guard, he counters by driving forward and pressing their heels into their glutes, neutralizing the mechanical advantage butterfly hooks typically provide.

His striking exists purely as a vehicle to access grappling. Against Kape, Almabayev showed adaptive striking—using circular footwork combined with leg and body kicks to maintain distance. When Kape used level changes to discourage takedowns, Almabayev began throwing body kicks and high kicks that punished this defensive posture, forcing Kape to remain more upright. He also demonstrated the "Sanchai catch" technique, absorbing Kape's left kick on his right forearm while scooping underneath with his left hand, then converting it into a single-leg takedown attempt.

Asu Almabayev's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Predictable Striking-to-Grappling Entries
Almabayev's limited power and reach disadvantage mean he cannot credibly threaten knockout strikes. Opponents can focus defensive attention almost entirely on takedown defense rather than worrying about managing striking threats simultaneously. Without feints, level changes, or combination striking that genuinely threatens damage, opponents can position themselves optimally to defend takedowns. Against Kape, the fight ended controversially when Kape made contact with Almabayev's eye during a flurry along the fence—highlighting his vulnerability when transitioning between striking and grappling in close quarters.

2. Size and Power Disadvantage on the Feet
Standing at approximately 5'3", Almabayev faces significant height and reach disadvantages against virtually every opponent. His reach deficit forces him to enter dangerous ranges to land strikes, exposing him to counters during entries. Against Kape, commentators noted the matchup resembled "a man fighting a child" in terms of size disparity. This dimensional disadvantage limits his ability to control range or threaten finishes on the feet.

3. Back Control Transition Risk
While his jump-over-the-back technique is innovative, it carries inherent vulnerability. He fell off over the top multiple times against Ochoa, surrendering top position and potentially ending up in bottom position. Against opponents with limited bottom games like Ochoa, this calculation works. But against high-level grapplers who can capitalize on scrambles or threaten submissions from guard, this tendency could prove costly.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This matchup presents a fascinating clash: Perez's offensive counterpunching system versus Almabayev's grappling-focused pressure game. The critical question is whether Almabayev can secure clinch positions during Perez's slip sequences—the exact windows that Taira exploited to devastating effect.

Perez's inside slips to throw cross counters and left hooks create perfect opportunities for collar tie captures. When he slips inside, his head is already leaned forward and available. Almabayev doesn't need to be as technically sophisticated as Taira with double collar ties and knee attacks—he just needs to secure the back body lock and execute his jump-over-the-back technique. Perez's forward-leaning posture during these sequences makes him vulnerable to this exact entry.

Almabayev's pressure-passing system should neutralize Perez's defensive grappling. While Perez showed excellent hand-fighting against Mokaev (preventing hand-locking and threatening ninja chokes), Almabayev's approach is different. He doesn't rely on body-lock takedowns that require hand-locking; he uses his compact frame to jump over the back from clinch positions. Perez's ninja choke threats work against traditional penetration-step takedowns, but they're less effective against someone who's already secured a back body lock and is jumping over the top.

Perez's striking regression to calf-kick spam from an extremely short stance plays directly into Almabayev's hands. Almabayev demonstrated against Kape that he can catch kicks using the Sanchai technique and convert them into takedown attempts. Perez's poor recovery positioning on kicks means he'll be vulnerable to these conversions. And once Almabayev establishes top position, Perez's offensive grappling abandonment (zero takedown attempts against Mokaev despite facing a gassing opponent) suggests he won't threaten from bottom.

The body attack vulnerability Perez showed against Mokaev is concerning, but Almabayev's striking lacks the power to exploit it. However, Almabayev doesn't need to hurt Perez on the feet—he just needs to create clinch opportunities during Perez's offensive counterpunching sequences.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early Rounds (1-2):
Perez will likely start cautiously, throwing calf kicks from his short stance while Almabayev uses circular footwork and leg/body kicks to maintain distance. Almabayev typically starts cautiously, taking time to establish rhythm, which could allow Perez to build early momentum. But the first time Perez attempts his cross counter or left hook off inside slip, Almabayev has the opportunity to secure a clinch position. If Almabayev can catch Perez's head during these sequences—even once—he can establish the back body lock and attempt his jump-over-the-back technique.

Mid-Fight Adjustments (2-3):
If Almabayev secures top position, Perez's defensive grappling will be tested. Against Mokaev, Perez showed excellent cage wrestling and crotch lock defense from side control. But Almabayev's pressure-passing system is more sophisticated than Mokaev's sit-to-front-headlock approach. Almabayev will drive his hips forward, press Perez's heels into his glutes if he establishes butterfly guard, and maintain suffocating top pressure that prevents scrambles. Perez's lack of offensive grappling means he won't threaten sweeps or submissions—he'll be purely defensive, trying to survive and stand up.

Championship Rounds (if applicable):
This is a three-round fight, but if it goes the distance, Perez's cardio concerns become relevant. His run-and-swing pressure against Taira was inefficient and left him exposed. Almabayev's grappling-heavy approach is cardio-intensive, but his recent performances (five straight decisions) suggest he can maintain pace. Perez's striking output declined in Round 3 against Mokaev, allowing Mokaev to find success on the feet despite being exhausted. If Almabayev can maintain top control into the third round, Perez's defensive reserves will be depleted.

Analysis and Key Points

• Perez's offensive counterpunching creates clinch opportunities: Every inside slip to throw cross counters or left hooks makes his head available for Almabayev's back body lock entries
• Almabayev's compact frame is perfectly suited to exploit Perez's posture: The jump-over-the-back technique works best against forward-leaning opponents
• Perez's striking regression limits his offensive threats: Calf-kick spam from a short stance with poor recovery positioning makes him vulnerable to Almabayev's kick catches and takedown conversions
• Almabayev's pressure-passing neutralizes Perez's defensive grappling: While Perez showed excellent hand-fighting against Mokaev, Almabayev's system doesn't rely on hand-locking or traditional penetration-step takedowns
• Perez's recent KO/TKO loss to Taira: The collar tie exploitation blueprint is already established—Almabayev just needs to execute a simpler version (back body lock instead of double collar tie)
• Almabayev's five-fight UFC winning streak: All via decision, showing he can control fights over three rounds without needing finishes

Understanding the Prediction

The model heavily favors Almabayev based on several key statistical factors:

• Odds decreased the prediction score by 11.0—Almabayev is a significant betting favorite at -225, and the model respects this market assessment
• Recent Win Percentage decreased the score by 2.0—Perez's 33% recent win rate (1-2 in his last three) is a major red flag
• Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight decreased the score by 2.0—Almabayev's 11.2 recent takedown attempts per fight versus Perez's 4.5 shows the grappling volume disparity
• TrueSkill decreased the score by 1.0—Perez's skill rating has declined after recent losses
• Striking Impact Differential, Significant Striking Output Differential, Average Striking Output Differential, and Striking Defense Percentage each increased the score by 1.0—Perez still holds advantages in striking metrics, but these are marginal compared to the grappling mismatch

The model sees this as a grappling-focused fight where Almabayev's pressure-passing system and takedown volume overwhelm Perez's defensive grappling and limited offensive threats.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a mixed record on both fighters:

Alex Perez (1-3):
- Correctly predicted Taira to win (KO/TKO R2)—the collar tie exploitation blueprint - Incorrectly predicted Nicolau to win (Perez won by KO/TKO R2)—underestimated Perez's ability to disrupt counter-punchers with feinting and lateral movement - Correctly predicted Mokaev to win (Decision R3)—Perez's defensive grappling kept it competitive but he offered zero offense - Correctly predicted Pantoja to win (Submission R1)—Perez's back exposure during pocket exchanges led to immediate finish

Asu Almabayev (4-1):
- Correctly predicted Almabayev to win vs Ochoa (Decision R3)—pressure-passing system dominated - Incorrectly predicted Kape to win (KO/TKO R3)—underestimated Almabayev's adaptive striking, though the finish was controversial due to eye poke - Correctly predicted Almabayev to win vs Nicolau (Decision R3)—grappling control neutralized striking - Correctly predicted Almabayev to win vs Johnson (Decision R3)—consistent pressure grappling - Correctly predicted Almabayev to win vs Vergara (Decision R3)—striking and footwork controlled pace

The model has been more reliable on Almabayev (80% accuracy) than Perez (25% accuracy), though the Nicolau miss on Perez shows the model can underestimate his ability against pure counter-punchers. However, Almabayev is not a counter-puncher—he's a pressure grappler, which is exactly the style that has given Perez the most problems (Taira, Mokaev, Pantoja).

Conclusion

Almabayev's grappling-focused pressure system is a nightmare matchup for Perez's current technical state. Perez's offensive counterpunching—built around inside slips to throw cross counters and left hooks—creates perfect windows for Almabayev to secure back body locks and execute his jump-over-the-back technique. The Taira fight established the blueprint: catch Perez's head during slip sequences, establish dominant clinch positions, and attack. Almabayev doesn't need Taira's technical sophistication with double collar ties and knee attacks—he just needs to secure the back body lock once and implement his pressure-passing system.

Perez's striking regression to calf-kick spam, combined with his forward-leaning posture and lack of offensive grappling, leaves him with no clear path to victory. His defensive cage wrestling kept him competitive against Mokaev, but Almabayev's approach is more sophisticated and better suited to exploit Perez's specific vulnerabilities. Expect Almabayev to secure clinch positions during Perez's offensive sequences, establish top control, and grind out a decision victory through suffocating pressure and positional dominance. WolfTicketsAI's pick of Almabayev is well-founded—this is a stylistic mismatch that favors the grappler over the compromised striker.