Tai Tuivasa vs. Sergei Pavlovich - UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland Results & AI Breakdown

Winner: Sergei Pavlovich by KO/TKO

Fight Info:
Location: Orlando, Florida, USA
Elevation: m
Weight Class: Heavyweight
Wikipedia: None

The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.

The predictions below are shown in dark grey if they were correct, incorxrect predictions are shown in red.
Predictions
W = WTAI Model O = Profit Model P = Plain Model EV = Expected Value
Fighter
Confidence
EV
Odds
W
O
P
Tai Tuivasa
+145
Sergei Pavlovich
21
15
10.4
-220

Weighted Scoring Report

Fight Analysis

Stat Breakdown

Stat Tai Tuivasa Sergei Pavlovich
Main Stats
Age 29 30
Height 74" 75"
Reach 75" 84"
Win Percentage 78.95% 94.12%
Wins 15 17
Losses 5 1
Wins at Weight Class 8 4
Losses at Weight Class 4 1
Striking Stats
Striking Accuracy 53.12% 53.76%
Significant Striking Accuracy 50.36% 51.81%
Strikes Landed Per Minute 4.650 7.381
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute 4.116 6.825
Knockdowns per Fight 1.395 4.762
Striking Impact Differential -2.83% 6.60%
Significant Striking Impact Differential -0.92% 6.00%
Striking Output Differential 1.33% 13.00%
Significant Striking Output Differential 3.17% 12.60%
Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 75.75% 51.61%
Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 84.75% 54.65%
Striking Defense Percentage 45.11% 45.63%
Takedown and Submission Stats
Submissions per Fight 0.000 0.000
Takedowns per Fight 0.000 0.000
Takedowns Attempted per Fight 0.523 2.381
Takedown Defense 90.91% 50.00%
Takedown Accuracy 0.00% 0.00%
Head Stats
Head Strikes Landed per Minute 2.593 6.508
Head Strikes Attempted per Minute 6.185 12.460
Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute 2.872 1.905
Body Stats
Body Strikes Landed per Minute 0.721 0.238
Body Strikes Attempted per Minute 0.895 0.635
Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.884 1.111
Leg Stats
Leg Strikes Landed per Minute 0.802 0.079
Leg kicks Attempted per Minute 1.093 0.079
Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute 0.488 1.429
Clinch Stats
Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute 1.104 1.349
Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute 1.535 2.381
Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.512 0.635
Tai Tuivasa History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
Sept. 3, 2022 Heavyweight Ciryl Gane Tai Tuivasa Ciryl Gane
Feb. 12, 2022 Heavyweight Derrick Lewis Tai Tuivasa Tai Tuivasa
Dec. 11, 2021 Heavyweight Augusto Sakai Tai Tuivasa Tai Tuivasa
July 10, 2021 Heavyweight Tai Tuivasa Greg Hardy Tai Tuivasa
March 20, 2021 Heavyweight Tai Tuivasa Harry Hunsucker Tai Tuivasa
Oct. 24, 2020 Heavyweight Stefan Struve Tai Tuivasa Tai Tuivasa
Oct. 5, 2019 Heavyweight Tai Tuivasa Serghei Spivac Serghei Spivac
June 8, 2019 Heavyweight Tai Tuivasa Blagoy Ivanov Blagoy Ivanov
Dec. 1, 2018 Heavyweight Junior Dos Santos Tai Tuivasa Junior Dos Santos
June 9, 2018 Heavyweight Andrei Arlovski Tai Tuivasa Tai Tuivasa
Feb. 10, 2018 Heavyweight Tai Tuivasa Cyril Asker Tai Tuivasa
Nov. 18, 2017 Heavyweight Rashad Coulter Tai Tuivasa Tai Tuivasa
Sergei Pavlovich History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
July 30, 2022 Heavyweight Derrick Lewis Sergei Pavlovich Sergei Pavlovich
March 19, 2022 Heavyweight Shamil Abdurakhimov Sergei Pavlovich Sergei Pavlovich
Oct. 26, 2019 Heavyweight Maurice Greene Sergei Pavlovich Sergei Pavlovich
April 20, 2019 Heavyweight Sergei Pavlovich Marcelo Golm Sergei Pavlovich
Nov. 24, 2018 Heavyweight Alistair Overeem Sergei Pavlovich Alistair Overeem