Clay Guida vs. Scott Holtzman - UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland Results & AI Breakdown

Winner: Clay Guida by Decision - Split

Fight Info:

Location: Orlando, Florida, USA

Elevation: m

Weight Class: Lightweight

Wikipedia: None

The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.

The predictions below are shown in dark grey if they were correct, incorxrect predictions are shown in red.

Predictions

W = WTAI Model O = Profit Model P = Plain Model EV = Expected Value

Fighter

Confidence

Dec

Sub

TKO

Odds

Clay Guida

51.52%|17

36.36%|12

12.12%|4

+143

Scott Holtzman

9.2

58.33%|7

8.33%|1

33.33%|4

-233

Weighted Scoring Report

Basic Prediction

This prediction was made before July 20th, 2024 and does not include detailed insights.

Fight Analysis

Stat Breakdown

Stat	Clay Guida	Scott Holtzman	Weight Class Average
Main Stats
Age	40	39	32
Height	67"	69"	70"
Reach	70"	69"	72"
Win Percentage	66.07%	73.68%	80.06%
Wins	38	14
Losses	19	6
Wins at Weight Class	14	7
Losses at Weight Class	12	5
Striking Stats
Striking Accuracy	46.32%	58.98%	52.25%
Significant Striking Accuracy	33.71%	48.92%	46.41%
Strikes Landed Per Minute	4.728	6.898	5.839
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute	2.614	4.319	4.323
Knockdowns per Fight	0.240	0.394	1.651
Striking Impact Differential	7.06%	26.75%	1.78%
Significant Striking Impact Differential	-3.21%	9.33%	0.54%
Striking Output Differential	13.06%	33.25%	4.47%
Significant Striking Output Differential	0.79%	13.92%	2.89%
Striking Defense to Offense Ratio	104.69%	62.13%	99.33%
Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio	183.15%	96.05%	122.77%
Striking Defense Percentage	62.30%	53.65%	53.56%
Takedown and Submission Stats
Submissions per Fight	0.641	0.197	0.501
Takedowns per Fight	2.883	2.067	1.862
Takedowns Attempted per Fight	8.089	3.643	4.946
Takedown Defense	37.78%	50.98%	81.42%
Takedown Accuracy	35.64%	56.76%	31.86%
Head Stats
Head Strikes Landed per Minute	1.575	3.104	2.924
Head Strikes Attempted per Minute	6.428	7.069	7.173
Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute	2.157	2.310	2.467
Body Stats
Body Strikes Landed per Minute	0.382	0.735	0.783
Body Strikes Attempted per Minute	0.585	1.116	1.163
Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute	0.507	0.748	0.798
Leg Stats
Leg Strikes Landed per Minute	0.657	0.479	0.616
Leg kicks Attempted per Minute	0.740	0.643	0.745
Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute	0.232	0.525	0.605
Clinch Stats
Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute	0.382	0.722	0.395
Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute	0.550	0.991	0.566
Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute	0.491	0.768	0.408

Clay Guida History:

Date	Weight	Red Corner	Blue Corner	Winner
April 23, 2022	Lightweight	Clay Guida	Claudio Puelles	Claudio Puelles
Dec. 4, 2021	Lightweight	Clay Guida	Leonardo Santos	Clay Guida
Aug. 21, 2021	Lightweight	Clay Guida	Mark Madsen	Mark Madsen
Feb. 6, 2021	Lightweight	Michael Johnson	Clay Guida	Clay Guida
June 20, 2020	Lightweight	Clay Guida	King Green	King Green
Aug. 3, 2019	Lightweight	Jim Miller	Clay Guida	Jim Miller
May 11, 2019	Lightweight	BJ Penn	Clay Guida	Clay Guida
June 9, 2018	Lightweight	Clay Guida	Charles Oliveira	Charles Oliveira
Nov. 11, 2017	Lightweight	Joe Lauzon	Clay Guida	Clay Guida
June 25, 2017	Lightweight	Clay Guida	Erik Koch	Clay Guida
June 4, 2016	Featherweight	Brian Ortega	Clay Guida	Brian Ortega
Nov. 7, 2015	Featherweight	Clay Guida	Thiago Tavares	Thiago Tavares
April 4, 2015	Featherweight	Clay Guida	Robert Peralta	Clay Guida
July 26, 2014	Featherweight	Clay Guida	Dennis Bermudez	Dennis Bermudez
April 11, 2014	Featherweight	Clay Guida	Tatsuya Kawajiri	Clay Guida
Aug. 31, 2013	Featherweight	Chad Mendes	Clay Guida	Chad Mendes
Jan. 26, 2013	Featherweight	Clay Guida	Hatsu Hioki	Clay Guida
June 22, 2012	Lightweight	Gray Maynard	Clay Guida	Gray Maynard
Nov. 12, 2011	Lightweight	Clay Guida	Benson Henderson	Benson Henderson
June 4, 2011	Lightweight	Clay Guida	Anthony Pettis	Clay Guida
Jan. 1, 2011	Lightweight	Clay Guida	Takanori Gomi	Clay Guida
Aug. 7, 2010	Lightweight	Clay Guida	Rafael Dos Anjos	Clay Guida
March 21, 2010	Lightweight	Clay Guida	Shannon Gugerty	Clay Guida
Dec. 12, 2009	Lightweight	Kenny Florian	Clay Guida	Kenny Florian
June 20, 2009	Lightweight	Diego Sanchez	Clay Guida	Diego Sanchez
Jan. 31, 2009	Lightweight	Clay Guida	Nate Diaz	Clay Guida
Sept. 17, 2008	Lightweight	Clay Guida	Mac Danzig	Clay Guida
April 2, 2008	Lightweight	Clay Guida	Samy Schiavo	Clay Guida
Dec. 8, 2007	Lightweight	Roger Huerta	Clay Guida	Roger Huerta
Aug. 25, 2007	Lightweight	Clay Guida	Marcus Aurelio	Clay Guida
June 16, 2007	Lightweight	Tyson Griffin	Clay Guida	Tyson Griffin
Jan. 25, 2007	Lightweight	Din Thomas	Clay Guida	Din Thomas
Oct. 14, 2006	Lightweight	Clay Guida	Justin James	Clay Guida

Scott Holtzman History:

Date	Weight	Red Corner	Blue Corner	Winner
April 10, 2021	Lightweight	Scott Holtzman	Mateusz Gamrot	Mateusz Gamrot
Aug. 8, 2020	Lightweight	Beneil Dariush	Scott Holtzman	Beneil Dariush
Feb. 15, 2020	Lightweight	Jim Miller	Scott Holtzman	Scott Holtzman
Aug. 3, 2019	Lightweight	Scott Holtzman	Dong Hyun Ma	Scott Holtzman
Feb. 17, 2019	Lightweight	Scott Holtzman	Nik Lentz	Nik Lentz
Oct. 6, 2018	Lightweight	Scott Holtzman	Alan Patrick	Scott Holtzman
Dec. 9, 2017	Lightweight	Scott Holtzman	Darrell Horcher	Scott Holtzman
April 22, 2017	Lightweight	Scott Holtzman	Michael McBride	Scott Holtzman
Dec. 17, 2016	Lightweight	Josh Emmett	Scott Holtzman	Josh Emmett
July 13, 2016	Lightweight	Scott Holtzman	Cody Pfister	Scott Holtzman
Jan. 2, 2016	Lightweight	Scott Holtzman	Drew Dober	Drew Dober
Aug. 8, 2015	Lightweight	Anthony Christodoulou	Scott Holtzman	Scott Holtzman