Analysis: Serghei Spivac vs Ante Delija

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Serghei Spivac to Win

Score: 5
Odds:
Serghei Spivac: +127
Ante Delija: -147

Serghei Spivac's Breakdown

Spivac enters this fight as the underdog despite being the more experienced UFC competitor. The Moldovan heavyweight has built his career around a grappling-heavy approach that blends judo throws with chain wrestling and effective top control.

Signature Techniques:

1. Chain Wrestling Sequences: Against Augusto Sakai, Spivac showed elite-level wrestling chains. When Sakai stuffed his initial double leg and secured an underhook, Spivac immediately transitioned to an overhook on the same side, repositioned his head, and executed a technical inside trip. This ability to link takedown attempts separates him from most heavyweights who abandon their shot after initial resistance.

2. Fence Lifting Takedowns: In Round 2 against Sakai, Spivac picked up the massive Brazilian with minimal effort for a high-amplitude takedown. His ability to elevate opponents against the cage demonstrates superior positioning and leverage that should translate well against Delija.

3. High Guard Shell Defense: Spivac employs an exaggerated high guard with wrists positioned above head height and elbows extended forward. Against Waldo Cortes Acosta, this system absorbed punishment effectively. His forehead was reddened by fight's end while his face remained relatively unmarked. The key is his disciplined chin-tuck that redirects shots away from the jaw.

Technical Evolution:

Spivac has refined his striking significantly since his early UFC days. Against Sakai, he showed improved confidence throwing whipping right hooks around high guards followed by reset jabs. His willingness to engage in striking exchanges has grown, though his primary path to victory remains grappling.

Serghei Spivac's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Post-Jab Recovery Position: Against Cortes Acosta, Spivac's defensive structure collapsed immediately after throwing his jab. Cortes Acosta landed his cleanest counter—a right hand off an outside slip—while Spivac was returning to stance with his guard down. This window exists after every jab he throws.

2. Body Exposure in High Guard: The elevated guard inherently exposes his midsection. Against Ciryl Gane, this proved catastrophic. Gane landed approximately 40 significant body strikes that systematically broke down Spivac's pressure and mobility, leading to the stoppage. Any opponent willing to attack the body can exploit this gap.

3. Vulnerability to Fast Starters: Against Tom Aspinall, Spivac appeared skittish and tentative in the opening exchanges. Aspinall landed a knee to the body followed by a crushing right elbow that ended the fight quickly. Spivac has shown he can be overwhelmed by aggressive early pressure before establishing his grappling.

Ante Delija's Breakdown

The Croatian heavyweight brings unusual tools to the division. Training alongside Tom Aspinall in Wigan has exposed him to elite-level sparring, and his PFL championship run demonstrated legitimate finishing ability.

Signature Techniques:

1. Volume Combination Punching: Against Marcin Tybura, Delija "spazzed out in combination," throwing rapid-fire multi-punch sequences that overwhelmed the veteran before he could establish defensive rhythm. Where most heavyweights throw 1-2 punch combinations and reset, Delija maintains offensive output through 3-4 punch sequences.

2. Forward Pressure and Cage Cutting: Against Cortes Acosta (before the eye poke incident), Delija backed his opponent to the fence and controlled octagon geography effectively. He reversed clinch positions and dictated where the fight took place.

3. Hand Speed for Division: Delija possesses atypical velocity for heavyweight. His combinations come with genuine speed that pressures opponents into defensive shells before meaningful adjustments can be made.

Technical Evolution:

Delija's relocation to the Aspinall training environment represents significant infrastructure investment. Training consistently with properly-sized heavyweights addresses the fundamental preparation problem that limits many heavyweight careers. His combination-heavy approach attacks a genuine gap in typical heavyweight defensive preparation.

Ante Delija's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Mental Reset After Disruption: Against Cortes Acosta, after a 5+ minute delay following the eye poke incident, Delija was knocked out cold within 30 seconds of the restart. He went from celebrating a perceived win to being flatlined by a single right hand. His ability to mentally reset after disruption is questionable.

2. Defensive Gaps During Combination Exchanges: When committing to multi-punch flurries, defensive responsibility necessarily decreases. The wild, volume-based approach can be exploited by opponents with counter-punching ability. Against Cortes Acosta, a single looping right hand caught him flush during what should have been a controlled restart.

3. Limited UFC Sample Size: With only two UFC fights, one ending in bizarre circumstances and one a quick finish, there's limited data on how Delija handles adversity, grappling exchanges, or championship rounds. His combination-heavy approach may not scale effectively across 15 minutes.

Warning: Delija was recently KO'd by Cortes Acosta. The same could happen again, particularly against a fighter like Spivac who can create chaotic scrambles and force uncomfortable positions.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This fight presents a classic grappler versus striker dynamic, but with interesting wrinkles.

Spivac's Techniques That Could Exploit Delija's Gaps:

Spivac's chain wrestling directly attacks Delija's limited defensive grappling sample. Delija defended a double-leg against Cortes Acosta, but that's the extent of his UFC grappling data. Spivac's ability to link takedown attempts—transitioning from double leg to inside trip to fence lift—should overwhelm whatever takedown defense Delija possesses.

Spivac's arm-triangle choke finished Derrick Lewis in Round 1. If he can get Delija to the mat and advance to side control, the submission threat is real. Delija has zero submission defense data in the UFC.

Delija's Techniques That Could Cause Problems:

Delija's combination volume attacks Spivac's post-jab recovery vulnerability. If Delija can time his flurries to land during Spivac's guard-down moments, he has the hand speed to land multiple shots before Spivac can reset.

Delija's forward pressure could also exploit Spivac's tendency to appear tentative against aggressive starters. Against Aspinall, Spivac was overwhelmed early. Delija's immediate combination pressure could create similar problems.

Historical Parallels:

The Gane fight provides the clearest blueprint for beating Spivac standing—systematic body work and diverse targeting. Delija hasn't shown body-attack discipline, instead focusing on headhunting combinations. This plays into Spivac's high guard strength rather than exploiting its weakness.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early Rounds:

Delija will likely come out firing combinations immediately, attempting to overwhelm Spivac before grappling can be established. Spivac's response to this pressure is the fight's first critical juncture. If he can survive the initial flurry and establish his jab to set up takedowns, the fight shifts to his world.

Mid-Fight Adjustments:

If Spivac secures early takedowns, expect Delija's cardio to become a factor. His combination-heavy approach creates significant cardiorespiratory demands. Extended grappling exchanges will accelerate this fatigue. Spivac's methodical top control—demonstrated against Aleksei Oleinik across three rounds—could grind Delija down.

If Delija keeps it standing, Spivac will need to adjust his entries. Against Sakai, he used feinted strikes to set up takedowns effectively. Against a faster combination puncher like Delija, these feints carry more risk.

Championship Rounds (if applicable):

Spivac has shown cardio concerns in prolonged fights, but his grappling-heavy approach is more sustainable than Delija's volume striking. If this fight reaches Round 3, Spivac's experience advantage should manifest in better energy management.

Analysis and Key Points

• Grappling Differential: Spivac averages 4.2 takedowns per fight with 62% accuracy. Delija has zero UFC takedowns and limited defensive data. This disparity is massive.

• Recent Form Concerns: Both fighters lost their most recent bouts. Spivac dropped a decision to Cortes Acosta. Delija was KO'd by the same opponent. Neither enters with momentum.

• Experience Gap: Spivac has 13 UFC fights. Delija has 2. The Moldovan has faced Ciryl Gane, Jailton Almeida, Tom Aspinall, and Derrick Lewis. Delija's UFC resume is Tybura and a bizarre loss to Cortes Acosta.

• Finishing Ability: Spivac submitted Lewis and TKO'd Sakai and Hardy. He can finish fights. But he's also been finished by Gane, Almeida, Aspinall, and Harris. Against power punchers, he's vulnerable.

• Delija's KO Power: Delija averages 2.49 knockdowns per fight and finished Tybura quickly. His hands are dangerous. But Spivac's high guard has proven effective at absorbing heavyweight power shots.

Understanding the Prediction

The model's confidence in Spivac stems from several key statistical advantages:

• Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight (+5.0): This is the largest factor. Spivac's 6.28 recent takedown attempts per fight versus Delija's 0.76 represents a massive grappling activity differential. The model heavily weights this disparity.

• Recent Win Percentage (+3.0): Both fighters sit at 33% recent win percentage, but Spivac's overall body of work provides more data points for the model to assess.

• Striking Defense Percentage (+2.0): Spivac's 44.5% striking defense versus Delija's 33.3% suggests better defensive fundamentals, though both numbers are below elite thresholds.

• Significant Striking Impact Differential (+1.0): Spivac's defensive shell, while imperfect, has proven effective at limiting clean damage.

• Recent Significant Striking Defense Percentage (+1.0): Spivac's recent defensive numbers support his ability to survive striking exchanges.

• TrueSkill (-1.0): Delija's limited UFC sample creates uncertainty. His Mu of 25.0 with Sigma of 8.333 reflects high variance. Spivac's 32.15 Mu with 2.8 Sigma indicates more established skill assessment.

• Significant Striking Output Differential (-1.0): Delija's 19.0 significant striking output differential versus Spivac's -10.79 shows the Croatian lands more than he absorbs on the feet. This is Spivac's primary risk factor.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has an impressive track record with Spivac, going 7-0 in predictions involving him:

• Correctly predicted Cortes Acosta over Spivac (0.58 score)
• Correctly predicted Almeida over Spivac (0.74 score)
• Correctly predicted Spivac over Tybura (0.54 score)
• Correctly predicted Gane over Spivac (0.69 score)
• Correctly predicted Spivac over Lewis (0.38 score)
• Correctly predicted Spivac over Sakai (0.28 score)
• Correctly predicted Spivac over Hardy (0.62 score)

This perfect record provides strong confidence in the model's assessment of Spivac's capabilities and limitations.

For Delija, the model is 1-0, correctly predicting Cortes Acosta to beat him (0.57 score). Limited data, but the model correctly identified his vulnerability.

Conclusion

Spivac's grappling advantage is the defining factor here. Delija's combination punching is dangerous, but his lack of UFC grappling data and recent KO loss raise serious questions about his ability to handle Spivac's chain wrestling and top control.

The model sees what the odds don't—Spivac's takedown activity and defensive fundamentals should neutralize Delija's striking volume. If Spivac can survive the early combination flurries and establish his grappling, he grinds out a decision or finds a submission.

WolfTicketsAI has Spivac as the play here. The underdog tag offers value against a fighter with two UFC fights and a fresh knockout loss on his record.