Analysis: Sean Strickland vs Anthony Hernandez

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Anthony Hernandez to Win

Score: 22
Odds:
Sean Strickland: +250
Anthony Hernandez: -300

Sean Strickland's Breakdown

Sean Strickland fights like a man who learned boxing from watching old Philly gym footage and refuses to deviate from the script. His entire game revolves around two weapons: the jab and the teep. He positions his right hand in the centerline, constantly reaching to parry incoming jabs while poking with his own. This worked beautifully against Israel Adesanya at UFC 293, where Strickland's constant forward pressure and teeps pushed Izzy against the cage repeatedly, disrupting the champion's rhythm and earning a shocking unanimous decision.

Against Paulo Costa, Strickland showed his ability to manage distance with that crisp jab, landing consistently while Costa struggled to find his range. The split decision win demonstrated his capacity to outwork aggressive strikers over five rounds through sheer volume and composure.

His defensive wrestling remains solid. Against Jack Hermansson, Strickland stuffed takedowns and controlled the head effectively, preventing the grappler from implementing his game. His 77% takedown defense rate reflects this ability to stay on his feet.

But here is the problem: when opponents neutralize his jab, Strickland becomes paralyzed. Both Dricus Du Plessis fights exposed this completely. DDP used both hands to palm and check the jab, led Strickland around the cage to negate the teep, and threw left high kicks around the extended guard. Strickland had no answer. He refused to throw his right hand with any conviction, ignored corner advice, and coasted to losses rather than taking risks.

Sean Strickland's Technical Vulnerabilities

Extended Right Hand Position Creates Left Side Exposure: When Strickland reaches forward to parry jabs, his chin elevates and he often stands on one leg. Against Du Plessis in both fights, this created a free line for left hooks and left high kicks. In Round 4 of their February 2025 rematch, DDP broke Strickland's nose by going southpaw, engaging in a hand fight, then stepping into orthodox while whipping a left hook over the top. Strickland was never in position to defend the left high kick until Round 3, at which point his arm was extended so far out he looked like he was doing semaphore.

No Secondary Weapons When Jab Is Neutralized: Strickland's right hand is loopy, telegraphed, and rarely thrown. Against Du Plessis, huge portions of the fight saw Strickland tactically paralyzed because his one thing was not working. He has no kicking game beyond the teep, no combination punching, no stance switching, and no level changes to create striking opportunities.

Uncoachability and Mental Rigidity: Strickland refuses to implement corner advice or deviate from habits ingrained through extensive sparring. Against Du Plessis, his corner called for right straights and body shots. He threw neither with any consistency. He was tough enough to take a beating but not tough enough to open up and take risks.

Anthony Hernandez's Breakdown

Anthony "Fluffy" Hernandez has transformed from a fighter who got knocked out by Kevin Holland in 39 seconds to one of the most dangerous grinders in the middleweight division. His game centers on relentless forward pressure, fundamental boxing, and a suffocating top game that breaks opponents mentally and physically.

Against Michel Pereira in October 2024, Hernandez showed improved striking. His jab and feints confused Pereira, and his counter right hand landed repeatedly as Pereira exited exchanges. When he got Pereira down, he used the "bunch" technique, pulling Pereira's far leg while kneeling on it, keeping him immobilized for ground and pound. The fifth round TKO finish demonstrated his ability to accumulate damage systematically.

His grappling is where he truly shines. Against Brendan Allen in February 2025, Hernandez utilized his single hook ride control system, maintaining one hook while holding the far wrist to generate consistent offense. His cradle technique proved effective approximately three times when Allen attempted to stand along the fence. Against Roman Dolidze in August 2025, Hernandez finished with a standing rear naked choke, dragging Dolidze backwards off his feet.

The seated arm triangle from turtle position is his signature submission. Unlike a guillotine, the opponent's arm is trapped inside the lock. This allows Hernandez to sit down on the submission, and if it fails, return to top position without ever risking bottom position.

Anthony Hernandez's Technical Vulnerabilities

Early Round Fragility: Hernandez historically gets hurt in the opening portions of fights before establishing his pace. Kevin Holland knocked him out in 39 seconds. Against Michel Pereira, he had a rough start before turning the fight around. Against Roman Kopylov, he ate significant body kicks and strikes early before finding his rhythm. Opponents who can capitalize on this window have the best chance of finishing him.

Absorbs Strikes to Maintain Pressure: Hernandez's style of walking through offense without retreating means he takes damage. Against Dolidze, he nodded and kept walking forward after eating a clean back elbow. While his toughness mitigates this, it represents accumulated damage over time and potential vulnerability against elite power punchers.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This fight presents a fascinating clash of philosophies. Strickland wants to control distance with his jab and teep, keeping opponents at the end of his punches. Hernandez wants to close that distance, pressure relentlessly, and drag the fight into a grinding affair where his cardio and grappling take over.

Hernandez's jab and head movement have improved significantly. Against Pereira, he used feints to close distance safely before initiating takedowns. Strickland's tendency to reach forward with his right hand to parry jabs creates the exact opening Hernandez exploits with his counter right hand. Every time Dolidze entered an exchange, Hernandez hit him with the right hand on the way out, square on the chin.

Strickland's takedown defense is solid at 77%, but Hernandez attempts approximately 13 takedowns per fight. The volume alone will test Strickland's ability to stay on his feet. More importantly, Hernandez's willingness to disengage when opponents achieve guard, as he did against Dolidze, means he will not get caught in bad positions on the ground.

Strickland's limited offensive variety plays directly into Hernandez's hands. When the jab is neutralized, Strickland has shown he becomes paralyzed. Hernandez's pressure and hand fighting could replicate what Du Plessis did, shutting down Strickland's primary weapon and forcing him into uncomfortable exchanges.

The historical parallel here is the Du Plessis blueprint. DDP prioritized neutralizing the jab rather than trying to hit around it. Hernandez's relentless forward pressure and clinch work could achieve a similar effect, smothering Strickland's output and dragging him into deep waters.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early Rounds: This is Strickland's best window. Hernandez's early round fragility is well documented. If Strickland can land clean jabs and teeps in the first five minutes, he could establish the distance game he needs. However, Strickland rarely throws with finishing intent, and his power has been limited since moving to middleweight.

Mid-Fight Adjustments: As the fight progresses, expect Hernandez to close distance more effectively. His cardio is elite, and Strickland's pace tends to remain steady rather than increase. If Hernandez can get the fight to the cage and initiate clinch work, his dirty boxing and takedown attempts will accumulate damage and drain Strickland's energy.

Championship Rounds: This is where Hernandez thrives. His ability to break opponents mentally and physically over time has been demonstrated repeatedly. Against Pereira, he finished in the fifth round. Against Allen, he won a unanimous decision. Strickland has shown he can go five rounds, but his output does not increase when behind. He coasted to losses against Du Plessis rather than opening up.

Analysis and Key Points

• Strickland's jab-centric game is vulnerable to pressure fighters who prioritize neutralizing it. Du Plessis proved this twice. Hernandez's relentless forward movement and hand fighting could achieve similar results.

• Hernandez's takedown volume will test Strickland's defense. Even with 77% takedown defense, facing 13+ attempts per fight creates opportunities for Hernandez to get the fight to the ground.

• Strickland's lack of finishing power limits his ability to capitalize on Hernandez's early fragility. He has only two knockouts since moving to middleweight full-time in 2020.

• Hernandez's cardio advantage becomes more pronounced as the fight progresses. His recent win percentage of 100% reflects his ability to win fights that go the distance.

• Strickland's mental rigidity is a liability. He refuses to adapt mid-fight, which Hernandez can exploit by forcing him out of his comfort zone.

Understanding the Prediction

The model's confidence score of 22 reflects a close fight with several factors pulling in different directions:

• Odds decreased the prediction score by 13 points. Hernandez is the heavy favorite at -300, and the model adjusts for this.

• Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight decreased the score by 5 points. While Hernandez's volume is high, the model may be accounting for Strickland's takedown defense.

• Recent Win Percentage decreased the score by 3 points. Strickland's recent 33% win rate (1-2 in last 3) weighs against him.

• Win Streak Difference decreased the score by 2 points. Hernandez is on a significant winning streak while Strickland is coming off a loss.

• Striking Defense Percentage increased the score by 2 points. Hernandez's defensive improvements factor positively.

• Striking Impact Differential and Significant Striking Output Differential each increased the score by 1 point, reflecting Hernandez's ability to out-strike opponents.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a mixed record on Strickland. The model correctly predicted his win over Paulo Costa (0.72 score) and his loss to Jared Cannonier. However, it incorrectly picked Strickland to beat Du Plessis in their first fight (0.77 score) and incorrectly picked against him versus Adesanya and Magomedov. The model also incorrectly predicted Strickland to beat Alex Pereira, who knocked him out in Round 1.

On Hernandez, the model has been perfect. It correctly predicted his wins over Roman Dolidze (0.73), Brendan Allen (0.79), Michel Pereira (0.62), Roman Kopylov (0.62), Edmen Shahbazyan (0.24), and Marc-Andre Barriault (0.69). Six correct predictions in a row is a strong vote of confidence.

Warning: Strickland was knocked out by Alex Pereira in Round 1 in July 2022. While this was nearly three years ago, his chin has been tested since, and he absorbed significant damage in both Du Plessis fights.

Warning: Strickland has lost 2 of his last 3 UFC fights, indicating a possible downward trend.

Conclusion

Anthony Hernandez represents the worst possible stylistic matchup for Sean Strickland. Hernandez's relentless pressure, improved boxing, and elite grappling can neutralize Strickland's jab-centric game the same way Du Plessis did. Strickland's inability to adapt when his primary weapon fails, combined with his limited finishing power, means he cannot capitalize on Hernandez's early round fragility. As the fight progresses, Hernandez's cardio and grinding style will take over. WolfTicketsAI has Hernandez winning this fight, and the model's perfect record on Hernandez combined with its inconsistent record on Strickland supports this pick.