Analysis: Jordan Leavitt vs Yadier del Valle

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Yadier del Valle to Win

Score: 9
Odds:
Jordan Leavitt: +315
Yadier del Valle: -380

Jordan Leavitt's Breakdown

Jordan Leavitt brings a creative grappling game to this featherweight bout. He fights primarily from a southpaw stance and uses unorthodox striking setups to disguise his level changes. Against Kurt Holobaugh in May 2025, Leavitt threw an inside-out kick with his lead leg, then immediately shot for a double-leg takedown. The kick drew Holobaugh's attention high, and Leavitt secured the takedown cleanly before finishing with a supine anaconda choke in the first round.

His front headlock game is dangerous. Leavitt has developed a specific technique where he pulls his opponent's choking arm deep onto his chest to neutralize control and create submission opportunities. Against Matt Sayles, he repeatedly threatened anaconda chokes from front headlock positions, eventually finishing with an inverted triangle while simultaneously working a kimura grip.

Leavitt's striking remains functional rather than polished. He uses front kicks to the body for distance management and has shown the ability to capitalize on defensive errors. Against Victor Martinez, he recognized Martinez backing up with broken posture and hands high. Leavitt secured a double collar tie and delivered devastating knee strikes for his first KO victory.

His recent form shows 2 wins in his last 3 UFC fights. The loss to Chase Hooper in November 2023 came via rear-naked choke when Hooper used a figure-four leg control to trap Leavitt's arm from back mount.

Signature Techniques: - Inside-out kick to level change (used effectively against Holobaugh in Round 1) - Supine anaconda choke from front headlock (Rafa Mendez-style finish against Holobaugh) - Double collar tie to knee strikes when opponents break posture (finish against Martinez)

Jordan Leavitt's Technical Vulnerabilities

Back Defense Hierarchy Issues: Against Paddy Pimblett, Leavitt's arm became trapped by a figure-four leg control from back mount. He failed to prioritize arm positioning before addressing the body triangle, creating a layered defensive problem he couldn't solve. Chase Hooper exploited the same vulnerability, using his legs to trap Leavitt's defending arm before securing the choke. Del Valle's back control with body triangle is his primary finishing position.

Scramble Overcommitment: When pursuing the back from top position, Leavitt can overcommit and fall over the top, reversing the position. Against Holobaugh, he fell over during a back-take attempt but recovered into a front headlock. Against more dangerous grapplers, this habit creates openings.

Striking Defense Gaps: Leavitt's striking involves primarily defensive shelling and retreat patterns rather than effective head movement. Against Pimblett, he appeared hesitant to engage on the feet and shot reactive takedowns when pressured. His tendency to reset with his chin high after combinations leaves him vulnerable to counters.

Yadier del Valle's Breakdown

Yadier del Valle enters this fight undefeated at 10-0 with back-to-back first-round rear-naked choke finishes in the UFC. His grappling credentials are legitimate. He holds a black belt in jiu-jitsu under Professor Ulpiano Malachias and a brown belt in judo from his childhood training in Cuba.

Against Connor Matthews in May 2025, del Valle demonstrated his leg catch counter system. He threw hard left kicks to bait Matthews into returning fire, then caught Matthews's kick using a two-forearm trapping mechanism. Del Valle drove forward while elevating the captured leg, cornered Matthews against the cage, and took him down. When Matthews made the critical error of turning to his hands and knees, del Valle immediately secured back control and finished with the rear-naked choke at 2:54 of Round 1.

His second UFC fight against Isaac Dulgarian showed similar patterns. Dulgarian, a wrestler who had never been finished professionally, attempted multiple takedowns. Del Valle stuffed the first attempt by controlling the head. On the second attempt, del Valle reversed the position during the scramble, secured back control with a body triangle, landed strikes to soften Dulgarian, and finished with another rear-naked choke at 3:41 of Round 1.

Del Valle fights from a southpaw stance and uses his kicking game to set up grappling exchanges. His takedown defense has been tested against a legitimate wrestler and held up well.

Signature Techniques: - Leg catch counter to takedown (Matthews fight, Round 1) - Grappling reversals during scrambles (Dulgarian fight, Round 1) - Back control with body triangle to rear-naked choke (both UFC finishes)

Yadier del Valle's Technical Vulnerabilities

Limited Striking Data: Both UFC fights ended quickly via submission. Del Valle landed only 1 more significant strike than Dulgarian before the finish. His striking defense and ability to handle prolonged exchanges remain untested at the UFC level.

Dependence on Opponent Cooperation: Del Valle's leg catch system requires opponents to commit to kicks. Against pressure boxers or wrestlers who minimize kicking attacks, he would need alternative takedown entries. The data doesn't reveal whether he possesses reliable takedowns from clinch positions or against defensive opponents.

Cardio Unknown: With two first-round finishes totaling under 7 minutes of cage time, del Valle's cardio and ability to maintain technical execution in later rounds remain question marks. Leavitt has gone the distance multiple times and shown he can work through adversity.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This fight presents a fascinating grappling chess match. Both fighters want to take the back and finish with chokes. The question becomes who controls the grappling exchanges.

Del Valle's leg catch counter system could exploit Leavitt's kicking entries. Leavitt uses front kicks and inside-out kicks to set up his takedowns. If del Valle catches one of these kicks, he has shown the ability to immediately transition to back control.

Leavitt's front headlock game presents problems for del Valle. When opponents shoot on Leavitt or end up in scrambles, he threatens anaconda chokes and D'Arce chokes from front headlock positions. Against Holobaugh, he finished from this position. Del Valle's tendency to reverse positions during scrambles could put him in front headlock danger.

The critical matchup is Leavitt's back defense against del Valle's back control. Leavitt has been submitted twice from back mount by Pimblett and Hooper. Both used leg trapping techniques to immobilize his defending arm before securing the choke. Del Valle's body triangle control and methodical approach to the rear-naked choke mirrors exactly what has beaten Leavitt before.

Del Valle's takedown defense against Dulgarian suggests he can stuff Leavitt's reactive shots. Leavitt's takedown accuracy sits at 28.6%, meaning he needs multiple attempts to secure takedowns. If del Valle defends the first shot and reverses position during scrambles, Leavitt could find himself in the exact situation that led to his previous submission losses.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early Round: Del Valle likely establishes his kicking game while Leavitt looks for level changes off his inside-out kicks. The first takedown attempt will be telling. If Leavitt secures the takedown, he can work his front headlock game. If del Valle stuffs it and reverses, the fight shifts dramatically.

Mid-Fight Adjustments: If the fight stays standing longer than expected, Leavitt's striking limitations become more apparent. His tendency to shell up and shoot reactive takedowns plays into del Valle's leg catch counter system. Del Valle's southpaw stance creates the geometry for his power left kick to target Leavitt's lead leg.

Later Rounds: Leavitt has more experience in extended fights. His cardio held up through three rounds against Trey Ogden and Claudio Puelles. If del Valle can't finish early, Leavitt's persistence and submission chains could create late opportunities. But del Valle hasn't needed to go past the first round yet.

Analysis and Key Points

• Del Valle's back control is Leavitt's kryptonite. Leavitt has been submitted twice from back mount. Del Valle has finished both UFC opponents from back control with body triangle.
• Leavitt's takedown accuracy is concerning. At 28.6%, he needs multiple attempts. Del Valle stuffed a legitimate wrestler's takedowns and reversed position.
• Weight class change for Leavitt. He's moving down from lightweight to featherweight. The cut could affect his grappling endurance.
• Del Valle's limited cage time. Under 7 minutes total in the UFC. His cardio and ability to handle adversity remain untested.
• Leavitt's front headlock is dangerous. If he can secure front headlock control, his anaconda and D'Arce threats are real.

Understanding the Prediction

The SHAP data reveals interesting dynamics. The odds decreased the prediction score by 16 points, meaning the betting market heavily favors del Valle, which the model partially discounts. However, del Valle's recent takedowns attempted per fight increased the score by 5 points, reflecting his ability to initiate grappling exchanges.

Del Valle's recent win percentage added 3 points, and his recent significant striking defense percentage contributed 2 points. His significant striking impact differential and striking impact differential each added 1 point, showing he's been efficient in his limited UFC time.

Leavitt's TrueSkill rating decreased the score by 1 point, reflecting his more established but inconsistent UFC record. His striking defense percentage also hurt the prediction slightly.

The model sees del Valle's grappling efficiency and recent success as outweighing Leavitt's experience advantage.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a mixed record with these fighters. The model correctly predicted Leavitt to beat Holobaugh with a score of 0.56. It also correctly predicted against Leavitt in his losses to Hooper (0.71) and Pimblett (0.74).

For del Valle, the model predicted Dulgarian to win with a score of 0.63, but del Valle won by first-round submission. This miss suggests the model may have underestimated del Valle's grappling ability against wrestlers.

The model's track record of correctly predicting Leavitt's losses to submission specialists adds confidence to this pick. When Leavitt faces elite back-takers, he loses.

Conclusion

Del Valle's path to victory mirrors exactly what has beaten Leavitt before. His back control with body triangle, methodical approach to the rear-naked choke, and ability to reverse positions during scrambles match up perfectly against Leavitt's documented vulnerabilities. Leavitt has been submitted twice from back mount by fighters using leg trapping techniques. Del Valle does exactly that.

The weight class change adds risk for Leavitt. Del Valle's undefeated record and two first-round finishes show a fighter hitting his stride. WolfTicketsAI has del Valle winning this grappling battle, and the technical evidence supports that conclusion.