Analysis: Dan Ige vs Melquizael Costa

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Melquizael Costa to Win

Score: 21
Odds:
Dan Ige: +180
Melquizael Costa: -210

Dan Ige's Breakdown

Dan Ige brings 19 UFC wins worth of experience into this featherweight scrap. The Hawaiian veteran fights with a pressure-heavy boxing style, entering on straight lines while switching stances to generate power. Against Sean Woodson, Ige showed his ability to overcome reach disadvantages by cutting the cage and landing a crushing overhand right that led to a first-round finish. His stance-switching against Nate Landwehr produced clean left straights that repeatedly stunned his opponent.

Ige possesses underrated grappling. Against Patricio Freire, he hit a slick switch reversal from bottom position in round one. When his guard got passed in round two, he maintained wrist control and shin shield, bridged to elevate Freire, then entered leg lock position during the scramble. This technical bottom game gives him insurance when fights hit the mat.

His knockout power remains legitimate. The Damon Jackson finish in round two and the quick stoppage of Andre Fili demonstrate he can end fights when he finds his range. Ige chains his inside low kicks directly into punch combinations, not giving opponents time to reset.

But Ige has lost 4 of his last 6 UFC fights. The Freire loss showed his linear entries getting timed with counter right hands that dropped him. Against Lerone Murphy, his cardio surprisingly failed him as the fight wore on. Diego Lopes exposed his predictable rushing pattern by grabbing his head and landing knees when Ige weaved after attacks.

Dan Ige's Technical Vulnerabilities

Linear Entry Predictability: Ige's habit of attacking in straight lines creates timing opportunities for counter strikers. Patricio Freire dropped him with right hands by reading these entries. Diego Lopes grabbed his head with both hands and landed knees when Ige weaved after his initial rushes. Costa's body-to-head kick setup could exploit this same pattern.

Cardio Deterioration Under Pressure: Against Lerone Murphy, Ige surprisingly faded as the fight progressed. Murphy's distance management made Ige work harder to close space, which accelerated his gas tank depletion. This was uncharacteristic for a fighter known for conditioning and represents a concerning trend.

Failure to Maintain Cage Pressure: Ige repeatedly allows opponents to circle out after he backs them to the fence. Against Movsar Evloev, he would make explosive entries but then reset, giving away positional advantage. This pattern lets mobile fighters escape and reestablish their preferred range.

Melquizael Costa's Breakdown

Melquizael Costa rides a five-fight winning streak into this matchup, including four straight UFC victories. The Brazilian southpaw has evolved into a legitimate threat in all phases. Against Morgan Charriere, he needed just 74 seconds to land a devastating head kick knockout. He opened with body kicks to establish the threat, then went upstairs with a kick that wrapped around Charriere's partial block and connected flush.

Costa's jiu-jitsu credentials are elite. Against Andre Fili, he secured a patient guillotine from butterfly guard, methodically removing space rather than explosively squeezing. His calm, collected approach forced the tap before it even looked like he was applying full pressure. Against Christian Rodriguez, he repeatedly reversed bad positions using sweeps and reversals despite conceding six takedowns.

His clinch work has improved significantly. Against Julian Erosa, Costa executed a beautiful osoto gari throw in round three, positioning his lead foot outside Erosa's lead foot, slapping him in the head as distraction, then dumping him to the canvas. He threatens throws from the clinch to create separation and escape pressure situations.

Costa trains at Chute Boxe under João Emilio, where he throws "300 kicks" per session. His multi-level kicking game attacks low, body, and head with disguised setups. The body-to-head kick combination that finished Charriere was drilled extensively in camp.

Melquizael Costa's Technical Vulnerabilities

Takedown Defense Concerns: Costa allowed six takedowns against Christian Rodriguez and gave up over six minutes of control time. His 50% career takedown defense rate suggests wrestlers can get him down. Ige's body lock takedowns against the fence could exploit this gap.

Cage Positioning Issues: Against Julian Erosa, Costa spent the majority of the fight with his back against the fence. While he maintained defensive integrity and found ways to escape using judo, he struggled to hold center octagon position against forward pressure.

Late-Round Conditioning: In round three against Rodriguez, Costa appeared exhausted after a late takedown and couldn't get back to his feet. This came after a quick turnaround between fights, but opponents who can push pace into championship rounds may find openings.

Style Matchup Dynamics

Costa's southpaw body kicks present a direct counter to Ige's linear entries. When Ige rushes forward throwing punches and weaving, he creates the exact timing window Costa used to land the head kick on Charriere. Ige's tendency to shift his weight forward while leading with his right hand could walk him directly into Costa's left kick.

Ige's wrestling may actually play into Costa's hands. Fili timed one of Costa's body kicks, parried it across, and secured a takedown. But when Fili unlocked his hands and retreated into guard, Costa wrapped his neck and finished the guillotine. Ige's body lock passing style from the Freire fight could expose his neck to similar danger.

Costa's judo throws from the clinch match up well against Ige's pressure against the fence. When Ige pushes opponents to the cage and looks for body lock trips, Costa has shown he can threaten throws to create separation and escape.

However, Ige's power remains dangerous. If he can time Costa's kicks and land clean counters, his knockout ability is real. The Woodson and Fili finishes prove he can end fights quickly when he finds openings.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early Rounds: Costa likely establishes his kicking game immediately, attacking Ige's lead leg and body to set up head kicks. Ige will press forward looking to close distance and land his overhand right. The first significant exchange may determine the fight's trajectory.

Mid-Fight Adjustments: If Ige can't land clean early, expect him to pursue takedowns. Costa's guillotine threat makes this risky. If Costa hurts Ige with kicks, he may pursue the finish aggressively rather than coasting.

Late Rounds: Costa's conditioning concerns meet Ige's recent cardio issues. Both fighters have shown vulnerability in later rounds. Costa's recent activity level (four fights in 2025) suggests he's in fight shape, while Ige's fade against Murphy raises questions.

Analysis and Key Points

• Costa's five-fight streak includes quality wins over Andre Fili (submission), Christian Rodriguez (decision), Julian Erosa (decision), and Morgan Charriere (KO). He's beaten the same Andre Fili that Ige knocked out.

• Ige's recent form is concerning. He's won just 2 of his last 6 UFC fights. The Freire loss showed his entries getting timed. The Murphy loss exposed cardio issues.

• Costa's body kick-to-head kick setup directly threatens Ige's linear rushing style. The same pattern that finished Charriere could catch Ige weaving after his combinations.

• Ige's wrestling creates submission risk. Costa's patient guillotine finished Fili when he made a positional error. Ige's body lock passing could expose his neck.

• Both fighters share 71-inch reach, neutralizing any length advantage. This becomes a battle of timing and technique rather than physical attributes.

Understanding the Prediction

The model favors Costa despite several features working against him:

• Odds decreased the prediction score by 10 points. Costa enters as a significant favorite (-210), which the model views skeptically.
• Recent Win Percentage decreased the score by 2 points. Ige's 33% recent win rate versus Costa's perfect recent run creates a gap.
• Significant Striking Impact Differential decreased by 1 point. Ige's experience shows in his striking metrics.
• Win Streak Difference decreased by 1 point. Costa's five-fight streak versus Ige's inconsistency matters.

Working in Costa's favor: - Reach increased the score by 1 point (equal reach neutralizes Ige's usual disadvantage). - Striking Defense Percentage increased by 1 point. Costa's 54.9% significant striking defense edges Ige's 55.9%. - Recent Average Striking Output Differential increased by 1 point. Costa's +47 differential crushes Ige's -8.5.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a mixed record with both fighters. The model correctly predicted Ige's wins over Fili and Landwehr, and correctly picked against him versus Murphy, Mitchell, and Evloev. But it incorrectly favored Ige over Freire and incorrectly picked Woodson to beat Ige.

For Costa, the model correctly predicted his wins over Charriere, Erosa, and Lingo. It incorrectly picked against him versus Rodriguez and Fili, and incorrectly favored him against Steve Garcia when he got knocked out.

Warning: Costa was finished by KO/TKO against Steve Garcia in December 2023. While he's won five straight since, the durability question exists. Ige has never been finished in his UFC career.

Conclusion

Costa's evolution under Chute Boxe has transformed him into a legitimate featherweight threat. His multi-level kicking game, patient submission work, and improved clinch wrestling present problems for Ige's predictable pressure style. Ige's linear entries create timing windows for Costa's body-to-head kick combinations. The Hawaiian veteran's recent form shows a fighter who can be timed and outworked by technical opponents. Costa's five-fight winning streak against quality opposition demonstrates he's ready for this step up. WolfTicketsAI sees Costa taking this one.