Analysis: Alden Coria vs Luis Gurule

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Alden Coria to Win

Score: 22
Odds:
Alden Coria: -260
Luis Gurule: +220

Alden Coria's Breakdown

Coria enters this flyweight bout with momentum after stopping Alessandro Costa by KO/TKO in his UFC debut back in September 2025. The numbers paint a picture of a fighter who brings serious offensive pressure. He lands 7.14 strikes per minute with a 58.78% accuracy rate. That's a high-volume approach that can overwhelm opponents.

Signature Techniques:

1. Wrestling-Heavy Approach: Coria averages 2.78 takedowns per fight with a perfect 100% takedown accuracy. That's an absurd conversion rate that suggests he picks his shots carefully and executes with precision. When he shoots, he finishes.

2. Head Hunting: He lands 3.15 head strikes per minute while only absorbing 0.65 head strikes per minute in return. That's a massive differential that shows he's either very defensively sound or very good at controlling distance and range.

3. Volume Striking: His average striking output differential sits at +72, meaning he's throwing significantly more than his opponents and landing at a rate that puts them on the back foot.

Technical Evolution:

With only one UFC fight on record, it's hard to track evolution. But his regional numbers translated well to the big show with that finish over Costa. The wrestling pedigree appears legitimate and could be the foundation of his UFC career.

Alden Coria's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Takedown Defense Concerns: Despite his offensive wrestling prowess, Coria's takedown defense ratio sits at just 33.3%. If an opponent can threaten with their own wrestling, it could neutralize his preferred path to victory. Against Costa, this wasn't tested much, but a more wrestling-heavy opponent could expose this gap.

2. Limited Sample Size: One UFC fight means we're working with incomplete data. His striking defense looks elite on paper (76.27%), but that hasn't been stress-tested against top-tier UFC competition yet.

3. Significant Striking Accuracy: At 44.21%, his accuracy on significant strikes is lower than his overall striking accuracy. This suggests he might be less precise when throwing power shots, which could leave him open to counters from a fighter with good timing.

Luis Gurule's Breakdown

Gurule is in a tough spot. He's lost two straight in the UFC, including a KO/TKO loss to Ode Osbourne in April 2025 and a unanimous decision loss to Jesus Aguilar in September 2025. That's a 0% recent win percentage, and the manner of those losses tells a story.

Signature Techniques:

1. Counter-Striking Framework: Gurule prefers to draw opponents into exchanges where he can capitalize on their forward momentum. He's looking to time entries and catch guys coming in.

2. Leg Kicks: He throws 1.14 leg kicks per minute, making it a consistent part of his offense. Against Aguilar, he tried to establish this early to slow his opponent's movement.

3. Takedown Attempts: Gurule shoots frequently (6.16 attempts per fight) but converts at just 11.11%. He's willing to mix in wrestling, but the execution isn't there.

Technical Evolution:

If anything, Gurule appears to be regressing. His recent striking defense has dropped to 36.19%, down significantly from his career average. The Osbourne knockout seems to have affected his confidence, and the Aguilar fight showed a fighter who couldn't find answers over three rounds.

Luis Gurule's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Defensive Lapses During Forward Pressure: Against Osbourne, Gurule got caught stepping in with his own offense. He leaves openings when initiating attacks, and fighters with good counter-timing have exploited this. Osbourne timed his forward movement perfectly for the knockout.

2. Linear Retreat Patterns: When pressured, Gurule backs straight up rather than using angles or lateral movement. This makes him easy to track down and trap against the cage. Both Osbourne and Aguilar used this against him effectively.

3. Takedown Efficiency: Despite shooting frequently, his 11.11% conversion rate is brutal. He's burning energy on failed attempts while giving opponents easy opportunities to land on his entries. Against Aguilar, his wrestling was largely neutralized, forcing him to stand and trade where he was outclassed.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This matchup heavily favors Coria's strengths against Gurule's weaknesses.

Coria's Wrestling vs Gurule's Takedown Defense: Gurule's takedown defense ratio is just 25% career-wide. Coria converts 100% of his takedown attempts. You do the math. If Coria wants this fight on the ground, it's going there.

Coria's Volume vs Gurule's Defensive Struggles: Gurule's recent striking defense has cratered to 36.19%. Coria throws 7+ strikes per minute. That's a recipe for Gurule eating a lot of leather.

Gurule's Counter-Striking vs Coria's Pressure: Gurule wants to counter, but his defensive lapses during his own offense are well-documented. Coria's pressure style should force Gurule into uncomfortable exchanges where his linear retreat patterns become a liability.

Reach Differential: Coria holds a 3-inch reach advantage (67" to 64"). At flyweight, that's significant. Coria can establish his jab and control distance before shooting or closing to clinch range.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early Rounds: Expect Coria to establish his jab and test Gurule's reactions. If Gurule shows the same defensive issues from the Osbourne fight, Coria will likely start mixing in takedown attempts early. Gurule will try to counter, but his timing has looked off recently.

Mid-Fight Adjustments: If Coria secures early takedowns, Gurule will be forced to defend wrestling rather than implementing his counter-striking game. This plays directly into Coria's hands. If Gurule somehow stuffs the takedowns, the fight becomes more competitive on the feet, but his recent striking defense numbers suggest he'll still be eating shots.

Late Rounds: Gurule's cardio hasn't been tested in championship rounds, but his recent performances suggest he fades as fights progress. Coria's wrestling-heavy approach should allow him to control pace and drain Gurule's gas tank.

Analysis and Key Points

• Coria's wrestling is the X-factor. His 100% takedown accuracy against Gurule's 25% takedown defense is a massive mismatch.
• Gurule was recently KO'd by Osbourne. That's a red flag. Fighters who get stopped often show chin issues in subsequent fights.
• Gurule has lost 100% of his last 5 UFC fights (both of them). That's a clear downward trend.
• Coria's reach advantage gives him tools to control distance and set up his wrestling entries.
• Gurule's counter-striking relies on opponents making mistakes. Coria's disciplined approach may not give him those openings.

Understanding the Prediction

The SHAP data shows several factors driving WolfTicketsAI's confidence in Coria:

• Odds increased the prediction score by 11.0. The betting market heavily favors Coria, and the model agrees with that assessment.
• Significant Striking Impact Differential increased the score by 6.0. Coria's +30 differential dwarfs Gurule's -13.
• Striking Defense Percentage added 4.0 to the score. Coria defends 76.27% of strikes compared to Gurule's 62.02%.
• Striking Impact Differential contributed 3.0. Coria's +63 versus Gurule's -5 shows who's winning exchanges.
• Recent Win Percentage added 2.0. Coria's 79% versus Gurule's 0% recent win rate is stark.

The only negative factor was Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight (-1.0), likely because Gurule shoots more frequently than Coria. But volume means nothing without efficiency.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has no prediction history for Coria, so this is a blind spot. However, the model predicted Gurule to beat Jesus Aguilar with a 0.66 confidence score, and that prediction was wrong. Gurule lost by unanimous decision.

This is a caution flag. The model overestimated Gurule once before. But the circumstances are different here. Coria brings a more dangerous wrestling threat than Aguilar, and Gurule's recent performances have only gotten worse.

Conclusion

Coria's wrestling pedigree, striking volume, and reach advantage create problems Gurule hasn't shown the ability to solve. Gurule's recent KO loss and subsequent decision defeat suggest a fighter trending in the wrong direction. His takedown defense is porous, his striking defense has collapsed, and his counter-striking approach requires opponents to make mistakes that Coria's disciplined pressure may not provide.

WolfTicketsAI has Coria winning this one, and the data supports that call. Expect Coria to control distance, mix in takedowns, and potentially finish Gurule if the fight stays standing long enough for those defensive lapses to reappear.