Nasrat Haqparast vs. Jamie Mullarkey - UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez Results & AI Breakdown

Winner: Nasrat Haqparast by KO/TKO

Fight Info:
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Elevation: 777.00m
Weight Class: Lightweight
Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org…

The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.

The predictions below are shown in dark grey if they were correct, incorxrect predictions are shown in red.
Predictions
W = WTAI Model O = Profit Model P = Plain Model EV = Expected Value
Fighter
Confidence
EV
Odds
W
O
P
Nasrat Haqparast
21
21
11.4
-210
Jamie Mullarkey
11
+170

Weighted Scoring Report

Fight Analysis

Analysis and Summary: Nasrat Haqparast vs. Jamie Mullarkey

Nasrat Haqparast

  • Recent Form: Haqparast has a strong recent record in the UFC, with 3 wins out of his last 5 fights, showing resilience and adaptability. His wins are predominantly by decision, indicating a strategic approach and endurance.
  • Knockout Concern: Haqparast's loss to Drew Dober via KO/TKO is a red flag (Heuristic 1). This might be a vulnerability against a powerful striker like Mullarkey.
  • Stylistic Tendencies: Haqparast demonstrates a preference for striking, with high rates in head strikes landed and significant strikes. His defense stats are solid, showing an ability to handle incoming attacks effectively.
  • Overall UFC Performance: His UFC career has been quite successful, with a focus on technical striking and decision wins, suggesting a methodical and strategic fighting style.

Jamie Mullarkey

  • Recent Form: Mullarkey's recent UFC record is mixed, with 3 wins and 2 losses. His recent loss by KO/TKO to Muhammad Naimov is concerning (Heuristic 1) and may impact his performance against a striker like Haqparast.
  • Versatile Fighter: Mullarkey shows a more varied skill set with notable takedown stats and a balance between striking and grappling. This could provide him an edge in versatility.
  • Knockout Power: With wins by KO/TKO, Mullarkey poses a knockout threat, especially given Haqparast's previous KO/TKO loss.
  • Overall UFC Performance: Mullarkey's UFC journey has been a bit uneven, but his capability to win both on the ground and standing up showcases his adaptability in different fight scenarios.

Fight Prediction

WolfTicketsAI predicts Nasrat Haqparast to win. This prediction aligns with Haqparast's recent form and technical striking ability. His striking defense and significant strike stats suggest he can outmaneuver and outstrike Mullarkey. However, Mullarkey's knockout power and ground game pose a threat. Haqparast's loss via KO/TKO to Dober is a concern, especially against a fighter with Mullarkey's power.

Haqparast's strategy will likely involve utilizing his striking accuracy and defense, aiming to outscore Mullarkey in a long fight, possibly targeting a decision win. Mullarkey might look to exploit any openings for a powerful strike or take the fight to the ground, capitalizing on any weaknesses in Haqparast's grappling defense.

Conclusion

Given Haqparast's consistent performance and strategic approach, along with his ability to handle various fighting styles, he seems well-positioned to win. However, Mullarkey's knockout capability and ground game could turn the tide if he capitalizes on any openings. This matchup promises a clash of strategies, with Haqparast likely focusing on a technical, striking-based game and Mullarkey seeking opportunities for powerful, fight-ending strikes or takedowns.

Stat Breakdown

Stat Nasrat Haqparast Jamie Mullarkey
Main Stats
Age 28 29
Height 70" 72"
Reach 72" 74"
Win Percentage 75.00% 73.91%
Wins 16 17
Losses 5 7
Wins at Weight Class 7 5
Losses at Weight Class 4 4
Striking Stats
Striking Accuracy 46.50% 49.33%
Significant Striking Accuracy 44.62% 47.28%
Strikes Landed Per Minute 6.229 4.940
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute 5.735 4.457
Knockdowns per Fight 0.529 0.308
Striking Impact Differential -3.00% 2.11%
Significant Striking Impact Differential 6.09% 0.56%
Striking Output Differential -34.82% -1.44%
Significant Striking Output Differential -24.73% -3.56%
Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 154.70% 109.36%
Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 165.81% 120.05%
Striking Defense Percentage 64.37% 54.84%
Takedown and Submission Stats
Submissions per Fight 0.000 0.154
Takedowns per Fight 0.317 2.465
Takedowns Attempted per Fight 1.587 7.241
Takedown Defense 26.92% 30.00%
Takedown Accuracy 20.00% 34.04%
Head Stats
Head Strikes Landed per Minute 4.155 2.218
Head Strikes Attempted per Minute 10.722 6.614
Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute 3.245 2.866
Body Stats
Body Strikes Landed per Minute 1.347 0.986
Body Strikes Attempted per Minute 1.813 1.458
Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute 1.185 0.924
Leg Stats
Leg Strikes Landed per Minute 0.233 1.253
Leg kicks Attempted per Minute 0.317 1.356
Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute 0.832 0.616
Clinch Stats
Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute 0.325 0.431
Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute 0.466 0.647
Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.247 0.236
Nasrat Haqparast History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
Sept. 9, 2023 Lightweight Nasrat Haqparast Landon Quinones Nasrat Haqparast
Sept. 3, 2022 Lightweight John Makdessi Nasrat Haqparast Nasrat Haqparast
Feb. 12, 2022 Lightweight King Green Nasrat Haqparast King Green
Sept. 25, 2021 Lightweight Dan Hooker Nasrat Haqparast Dan Hooker
March 13, 2021 Lightweight Nasrat Haqparast Rafa Garcia Nasrat Haqparast
Aug. 8, 2020 Lightweight Nasrat Haqparast Alexander Munoz Nasrat Haqparast
Jan. 18, 2020 Lightweight Drew Dober Nasrat Haqparast Drew Dober
Aug. 3, 2019 Lightweight Joaquim Silva Nasrat Haqparast Nasrat Haqparast
Oct. 27, 2018 Lightweight Thibault Gouti Nasrat Haqparast Nasrat Haqparast
July 22, 2018 Lightweight Nasrat Haqparast Marc Diakiese Nasrat Haqparast
Oct. 21, 2017 Lightweight Marcin Held Nasrat Haqparast Marcin Held
Jamie Mullarkey History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
Sept. 9, 2023 Lightweight Jamie Mullarkey John Makdessi Jamie Mullarkey
June 3, 2023 Lightweight Jamie Mullarkey Muhammad Naimov Muhammad Naimov
Feb. 11, 2023 Lightweight Jamie Mullarkey Francisco Prado Jamie Mullarkey
July 9, 2022 Lightweight Michael Johnson Jamie Mullarkey Jamie Mullarkey
March 5, 2022 Lightweight Jalin Turner Jamie Mullarkey Jalin Turner
Oct. 2, 2021 Lightweight Devonte Smith Jamie Mullarkey Jamie Mullarkey
March 27, 2021 Lightweight Jamie Mullarkey Khama Worthy Jamie Mullarkey
Oct. 17, 2020 Lightweight Jamie Mullarkey Fares Ziam Fares Ziam
Oct. 5, 2019 Lightweight Brad Riddell Jamie Mullarkey Brad Riddell