Luana Santos vs. Stephanie Egger - UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez Results & AI Breakdown

Winner: Luana Santos by Decision - Unanimous

Fight Info:
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Elevation: 777.00m
Weight Class: Women's Bantamweight
Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org…

The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.

The predictions below are shown in dark grey if they were correct, incorxrect predictions are shown in red.
Predictions
W = WTAI Model O = Profit Model P = Plain Model EV = Expected Value
Fighter
Confidence
EV
Odds
W
O
P
Luana Santos
22
10
13
16.2
-170
Stephanie Egger
+140

Weighted Scoring Report

Fight Analysis

Fight Analysis: Luana Santos vs Stephanie Egger

Overview

The upcoming UFC Women's Bantamweight bout between Luana Santos and Stephanie Egger is shaping up to be a clash of striking versus grappling. WolfTicketsAI predicts a win for Luana Santos, and the stats and recent performances provide a solid foundation for this prediction.

Luana Santos: A Striking Force

Luana Santos comes off a stellar performance against Juliana Miller, winning by TKO. Her striking is her standout attribute, as seen in her impressive stats: 17.3756 strikes landed per minute and a striking accuracy of 60.38%. Her recent head strikes landed per minute (11.9457) showcases her dominance in stand-up exchanges. This is critical in a matchup against a grappler like Egger, where controlling the distance and pace with striking could be a decisive factor.

Stephanie Egger: Submission Specialist

Egger, on the other hand, displays strength in grappling and submissions, with a significant submissions per fight rate of 0.7601 and takedowns per fight at 3.0405. However, her recent UFC history reveals a mixed bag of results, with losses in two out of her last three fights, both by submission. This suggests potential vulnerabilities, especially when facing a striker like Santos.

Key Considerations

  1. Recent Performance: Santos's recent win by KO/TKO signals her striking power, aligning with heuristic 1 which cautions about fighters who have recently lost by KO/TKO.
  2. Fighter Experience: Both fighters have sufficient UFC experience, satisfying heuristic 2.
  3. Weight Class Changes: No recent weight class changes have been noted for either fighter, addressing heuristic 3.
  4. Career Trajectory: Egger's recent record (winning 2 out of the last 5 fights) hints at a possible downward trend as per heuristic 4, whereas Santos shows an upward trajectory.

Previous Encounters

There's no record of Santos and Egger having fought each other in the past, making this an intriguing first-time matchup.

The Prediction Justification

Given Santos' striking prowess and ability to land significant strikes effectively, coupled with Egger's recent susceptibility to submissions, the prediction leans towards Santos. Her ability to keep the fight standing and utilize her striking advantage could be the key to overcoming Egger's grappling strength. Santos' recent performances show a fighter on the rise, capable of handling pressure and delivering powerful strikes.

Conclusion

In summary, Luana Santos' striking capabilities, combined with Stephanie Egger's recent submission losses, give credence to WolfTicketsAI's prediction. Santos is likely to control the pace and keep the fight in her striking domain, leading to a potential win in this intriguing Women's Bantamweight showdown.

Stat Breakdown

Stat Luana Santos Stephanie Egger
Main Stats
Age 23 35
Height 66" 66"
Reach 67" 68"
Win Percentage 85.71% 66.67%
Wins 7 8
Losses 1 5
Wins at Weight Class 0 2
Losses at Weight Class 0 3
Striking Stats
Striking Accuracy 60.38% 63.48%
Significant Striking Accuracy 60.00% 53.15%
Strikes Landed Per Minute 17.376 4.713
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute 17.104 1.926
Knockdowns per Fight 0.000 0.000
Striking Impact Differential 39.00% 3.50%
Significant Striking Impact Differential 39.00% -1.00%
Striking Output Differential 29.00% 1.33%
Significant Striking Output Differential 30.00% -5.83%
Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 81.25% 64.52%
Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 80.95% 126.32%
Striking Defense Percentage 68.00% 53.93%
Takedown and Submission Stats
Submissions per Fight 0.000 0.760
Takedowns per Fight 0.000 3.041
Takedowns Attempted per Fight 0.000 7.601
Takedown Defense 100.00% 100.00%
Takedown Accuracy 0.00% 40.00%
Head Stats
Head Strikes Landed per Minute 11.946 1.242
Head Strikes Attempted per Minute 22.262 2.813
Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute 4.072 0.887
Body Stats
Body Strikes Landed per Minute 4.344 0.152
Body Strikes Attempted per Minute 5.430 0.203
Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute 2.443 0.760
Leg Stats
Leg Strikes Landed per Minute 0.815 0.532
Leg kicks Attempted per Minute 0.815 0.608
Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute 0.000 0.431
Clinch Stats
Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute 2.715 0.203
Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute 4.615 0.228
Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute 1.629 0.177
Luana Santos History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
Aug. 12, 2023 Women's Flyweight Juliana Miller Luana Santos Luana Santos
Stephanie Egger History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
April 29, 2023 Women's Bantamweight Stephanie Egger Irina Alekseeva Irina Alekseeva
Sept. 3, 2022 Women's Featherweight Stephanie Egger Ailin Perez Stephanie Egger
Aug. 6, 2022 Women's Bantamweight Mayra Bueno Silva Stephanie Egger Mayra Bueno Silva
Feb. 19, 2022 Women's Bantamweight Jessica-Rose Clark Stephanie Egger Stephanie Egger
Oct. 2, 2021 Women's Bantamweight Stephanie Egger Shanna Young Stephanie Egger
Oct. 10, 2020 Women's Bantamweight Tracy Cortez Stephanie Egger Tracy Cortez