JunYong Park vs. Andre Muniz - UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez Results & AI Breakdown

Winner: Andre Muniz by Decision - Split

Fight Info:
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Elevation: 777.00m
Weight Class: Middleweight
Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org…

The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.

The predictions below are shown in dark grey if they were correct, incorxrect predictions are shown in red.
Predictions
W = WTAI Model O = Profit Model P = Plain Model EV = Expected Value
Fighter
Confidence
EV
Odds
W
O
P
JunYong Park
5
10
19
-4.8
-185
Andre Muniz
+155

Weighted Scoring Report

Fight Analysis

JunYong Park vs Andre Muniz UFC Fight Analysis

Overview

JunYong Park is set to clash with Andre Muniz in a highly anticipated middleweight bout. WolfTicketsAI has predicted a victory for Park with a confidence score of 5. This prediction aligns with Park's recent performance and stats.

JunYong Park Analysis

Park, also known as the "Iron Turtle", shows impressive stats and a strong UFC track record. He's riding a wave of victories, winning his last five fights, four of which were in the middleweight class. A key victory was against Albert Duraev, where Park showcased his resilience and submission skills. His significant strikes, both attempted and landed per minute, are higher than Muniz’s. Park's recent performance in striking and submissions, especially his rear-naked chokes, demonstrates his versatility and threat in both stand-up and ground game.

However, it's crucial to note that Park lost to Gregory Rodrigues by KO/TKO, which could be a vulnerability against a striker like Muniz. Despite this, Park's recent win streak and overall UFC performance, with a win percentage of 1.00 in recent fights, indicate a strong upward trajectory in his career.

Andre Muniz Analysis

Muniz, on the other hand, has a mixed recent record. He lost two of his last three fights, one by KO/TKO and the other by submission. This raises concerns about his resilience in both stand-up and grappling exchanges. Muniz's significant striking accuracy and output are lower than Park's, which might put him at a disadvantage in a striking battle. However, his submission skills, particularly in earlier fights, should not be underestimated.

Muniz's recent losses, especially the KO/TKO by Paul Craig, are significant. This loss could be a psychological disadvantage and a physical concern if he hasn’t fully recovered.

Key Points

  1. Recent Performance: Park's recent win streak and impressive submissions are contrasted by Muniz's recent losses, including a KO/TKO defeat.
  2. Striking and Grappling: Park shows superiority in striking stats and has proven his grappling skills. Muniz, while a competent grappler, has shown vulnerabilities in his recent fights.
  3. Psychological and Physical Factors: Muniz's recent KO/TKO loss could impact his confidence and physical resilience in this fight.

Conclusion

Considering the recent performances, statistics, and WolfTicketsAI’s prediction, JunYong Park seems to have a significant advantage going into this fight. His striking superiority, recent form, and ability to win by submission position him as the likely victor against Muniz. Muniz's recent setbacks, particularly his vulnerability to both strikes and submissions, make this matchup challenging for him. Park's versatility and momentum are key factors making him the favored fighter in this middleweight bout.

Stat Breakdown

Stat JunYong Park Andre Muniz
Main Stats
Age 32 33
Height 70" 73"
Reach 73" 78"
Win Percentage 77.27% 79.31%
Wins 17 24
Losses 6 6
Wins at Weight Class 7 5
Losses at Weight Class 2 2
Striking Stats
Striking Accuracy 59.08% 57.09%
Significant Striking Accuracy 51.30% 46.47%
Strikes Landed Per Minute 8.380 4.845
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute 4.942 1.954
Knockdowns per Fight 0.150 0.000
Striking Impact Differential 46.00% 13.14%
Significant Striking Impact Differential 14.22% -1.57%
Striking Output Differential 61.22% 20.71%
Significant Striking Output Differential 18.89% -4.00%
Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 52.87% 58.06%
Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 86.41% 128.80%
Striking Defense Percentage 53.86% 54.21%
Takedown and Submission Stats
Submissions per Fight 1.203 1.641
Takedowns per Fight 2.105 3.048
Takedowns Attempted per Fight 4.210 7.033
Takedown Defense 43.33% 200.00%
Takedown Accuracy 50.00% 43.33%
Head Stats
Head Strikes Landed per Minute 4.049 1.157
Head Strikes Attempted per Minute 8.640 3.235
Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute 2.225 1.344
Body Stats
Body Strikes Landed per Minute 0.421 0.391
Body Strikes Attempted per Minute 0.491 0.531
Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.902 0.531
Leg Stats
Leg Strikes Landed per Minute 0.471 0.406
Leg kicks Attempted per Minute 0.501 0.438
Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute 0.531 0.250
Clinch Stats
Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute 0.431 0.109
Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute 0.561 0.141
Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.241 0.063
JunYong Park History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
July 15, 2023 Middleweight Albert Duraev JunYong Park JunYong Park
Feb. 4, 2023 Middleweight JunYong Park Denis Tiuliulin JunYong Park
Oct. 29, 2022 Middleweight Joseph Holmes JunYong Park JunYong Park
May 21, 2022 Middleweight Eryk Anders JunYong Park JunYong Park
Oct. 23, 2021 Middleweight JunYong Park Gregory Rodrigues Gregory Rodrigues
May 8, 2021 Middleweight JunYong Park Tafon Nchukwi JunYong Park
Oct. 17, 2020 Middleweight JunYong Park John Phillips JunYong Park
Dec. 21, 2019 Middleweight JunYong Park Marc-Andre Barriault JunYong Park
Aug. 31, 2019 Middleweight JunYong Park Anthony Hernandez Anthony Hernandez
Andre Muniz History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
July 22, 2023 Middleweight Paul Craig Andre Muniz Paul Craig
Feb. 25, 2023 Middleweight Andre Muniz Brendan Allen Brendan Allen
July 2, 2022 Middleweight Uriah Hall Andre Muniz Andre Muniz
Dec. 11, 2021 Middleweight Andre Muniz Eryk Anders Andre Muniz
May 15, 2021 Middleweight Jacare Souza Andre Muniz Andre Muniz
Sept. 5, 2020 Middleweight Andre Muniz Bartosz Fabinski Andre Muniz
Nov. 16, 2019 Middleweight Antonio Arroyo Andre Muniz Andre Muniz