Anthony Smith vs. Khalil Rountree Jr. - UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez Results & AI Breakdown

Winner: Khalil Rountree Jr. by KO/TKO

Fight Info:
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Elevation: 777.00m
Weight Class: Light Heavyweight
Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org…

The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.

The predictions below are shown in dark grey if they were correct, incorxrect predictions are shown in red.
Predictions
W = WTAI Model O = Profit Model P = Plain Model EV = Expected Value
Fighter
Confidence
EV
Odds
W
O
P
Anthony Smith
+195
Khalil Rountree Jr.
24
4
15
8.6
-240

Weighted Scoring Report

Fight Analysis

Fight Analysis: Anthony Smith vs Khalil Rountree Jr.

Anthony Smith Analysis:

  • Recent Performance: Anthony Smith's recent UFC history is a mixed bag. He's faced some high-caliber opponents, showing resilience and skill, especially in grappling with wins via submission and doctor's stoppage. However, his losses, particularly by KO/TKO, are concerning, including a recent defeat by Magomed Ankalaev.
  • Key Heuristics: Smith's loss by KO/TKO to Ankalaev indicates potential vulnerability, aligning with our first heuristic. His win percentage in the UFC is decent (0.6727) but not outstanding. Also, having fought 20 times in the UFC, he has plenty of experience, negating concerns about a limited history.
  • Statistical Standouts: His striking defense percentages (0.3650 overall, 0.4618 significant) are moderately good. His striking accuracy (0.5237) and significant striking accuracy (0.4950) are reasonable, indicating he can land effective shots. However, the recent increase in head strikes absorbed per minute is a red flag.

Khalil Rountree Jr. Analysis:

  • Recent Performance: Rountree's recent UFC history is impressive. He's on a winning streak, with victories largely by KO/TKO. This suggests strong striking power, a key asset in the light heavyweight division.
  • Key Heuristics: Rountree's recent win streak, particularly his KO/TKO victories, suggest he's in prime form. With a UFC win percentage of 0.7222, he's shown consistent success in the octagon.
  • Statistical Standouts: Rountree's striking statistics are notable. His striking accuracy (0.4252) and significant striking accuracy (0.3868) are slightly lower than Smith's, but his knockdowns per fight (1.6880) are impressive. His recent significant strikes landed per minute (3.9398) and recent striking defense percentage (0.4888) are also strong indicators of his striking prowess.

WolfTicketsAI Prediction:

  • Prediction: Khalil Rountree Jr. to win.
  • Justification: Rountree's recent performances, particularly his knockout power, align with his predicted victory. Smith's susceptibility to KO/TKO, highlighted by recent losses in this manner, reinforces this prediction.

Conclusion:

  • Fight Outlook: Expect a striking-heavy contest. Smith may attempt to leverage his grappling, but Rountree's striking, especially his power and recent form, give him the edge. Rountree's ability to land significant strikes and his knockout power are likely to be decisive factors against Smith, who has shown vulnerability in this area.
  • Final Prediction: Khalil Rountree Jr. is favored to win, likely by KO/TKO, capitalizing on his striking strengths and Smith's recent struggles in stand-up exchanges.

Stat Breakdown

Stat Anthony Smith Khalil Rountree Jr.
Main Stats
Age 35 33
Height 76" 73"
Reach 76" 76"
Win Percentage 67.27% 72.22%
Wins 37 14
Losses 19 5
Wins at Weight Class 8 8
Losses at Weight Class 4 5
Striking Stats
Striking Accuracy 52.37% 42.52%
Significant Striking Accuracy 49.50% 38.68%
Strikes Landed Per Minute 3.646 4.455
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute 3.214 3.732
Knockdowns per Fight 0.482 1.688
Striking Impact Differential -40.05% -8.50%
Significant Striking Impact Differential -15.00% -3.29%
Striking Output Differential -49.80% 2.21%
Significant Striking Output Differential -22.20% 9.36%
Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 115.49% 103.58%
Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 122.57% 114.07%
Striking Defense Percentage 46.18% 50.56%
Takedown and Submission Stats
Submissions per Fight 0.482 0.141
Takedowns per Fight 0.551 0.000
Takedowns Attempted per Fight 1.929 0.141
Takedown Defense 104.76% 77.78%
Takedown Accuracy 28.57% 0.00%
Head Stats
Head Strikes Landed per Minute 2.039 2.194
Head Strikes Attempted per Minute 4.913 7.587
Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute 2.571 2.148
Body Stats
Body Strikes Landed per Minute 0.597 0.732
Body Strikes Attempted per Minute 0.928 1.079
Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.762 1.041
Leg Stats
Leg Strikes Landed per Minute 0.579 0.807
Leg kicks Attempted per Minute 0.652 0.985
Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute 1.258 0.975
Clinch Stats
Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute 0.280 0.281
Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute 0.390 0.385
Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.427 0.150
Anthony Smith History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
Aug. 26, 2023 Light Heavyweight Anthony Smith Ryan Spann Anthony Smith
May 13, 2023 Light Heavyweight Anthony Smith Johnny Walker Johnny Walker
July 30, 2022 Light Heavyweight Magomed Ankalaev Anthony Smith Magomed Ankalaev
Sept. 18, 2021 Light Heavyweight Anthony Smith Ryan Spann Anthony Smith
April 24, 2021 Light Heavyweight Anthony Smith Jimmy Crute Anthony Smith
Nov. 28, 2020 Light Heavyweight Anthony Smith Devin Clark Anthony Smith
Aug. 29, 2020 Light Heavyweight Anthony Smith Aleksandar Rakic Aleksandar Rakic
May 13, 2020 Light Heavyweight Anthony Smith Glover Teixeira Glover Teixeira
June 1, 2019 Light Heavyweight Alexander Gustafsson Anthony Smith Anthony Smith
March 2, 2019 UFC Light Heavyweight Title Jon Jones Anthony Smith Jon Jones
Oct. 27, 2018 Light Heavyweight Volkan Oezdemir Anthony Smith Anthony Smith
July 22, 2018 Light Heavyweight Mauricio Rua Anthony Smith Anthony Smith
June 9, 2018 Light Heavyweight Rashad Evans Anthony Smith Anthony Smith
Feb. 3, 2018 Middleweight Thiago Santos Anthony Smith Thiago Santos
Sept. 16, 2017 Middleweight Hector Lombard Anthony Smith Anthony Smith
April 15, 2017 Middleweight Anthony Smith Andrew Sanchez Anthony Smith
Dec. 3, 2016 Middleweight Elvis Mutapcic Anthony Smith Anthony Smith
July 8, 2016 Middleweight Cezar Ferreira Anthony Smith Cezar Ferreira
Feb. 21, 2016 Middleweight Anthony Smith Leonardo Guimaraes Anthony Smith
June 8, 2013 Middleweight Antonio Braga Neto Anthony Smith Antonio Braga Neto
Khalil Rountree Jr. History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
Aug. 12, 2023 Light Heavyweight Khalil Rountree Jr. Chris Daukaus Khalil Rountree Jr.
Oct. 29, 2022 Light Heavyweight Dustin Jacoby Khalil Rountree Jr. Khalil Rountree Jr.
March 12, 2022 Light Heavyweight Khalil Rountree Jr. Karl Roberson Khalil Rountree Jr.
Sept. 4, 2021 Light Heavyweight Modestas Bukauskas Khalil Rountree Jr. Khalil Rountree Jr.
Jan. 23, 2021 Light Heavyweight Khalil Rountree Jr. Marcin Prachnio Marcin Prachnio
Sept. 28, 2019 Light Heavyweight Ion Cutelaba Khalil Rountree Jr. Ion Cutelaba
April 13, 2019 Light Heavyweight Eryk Anders Khalil Rountree Jr. Khalil Rountree Jr.
Nov. 17, 2018 Light Heavyweight Khalil Rountree Jr. Johnny Walker Johnny Walker
July 7, 2018 Light Heavyweight Gokhan Saki Khalil Rountree Jr. Khalil Rountree Jr.
Dec. 30, 2017 Light Heavyweight Khalil Rountree Jr. Michal Oleksiejczuk None
July 16, 2017 Light Heavyweight Khalil Rountree Jr. Paul Craig Khalil Rountree Jr.
Feb. 4, 2017 Light Heavyweight Daniel Jolly Khalil Rountree Jr. Khalil Rountree Jr.
Nov. 26, 2016 Light Heavyweight Khalil Rountree Jr. Tyson Pedro Tyson Pedro
July 8, 2016 Ultimate Fighter 23 Light Heavyweight Tournament Title Andrew Sanchez Khalil Rountree Jr. Andrew Sanchez