Vicente Luque vs. Geoff Neal - UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill Results & AI Breakdown

Winner: Geoff Neal by KO/TKO

Fight Info:
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Elevation: m
Weight Class: Welterweight
Wikipedia: None

The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.

The predictions below are shown in dark grey if they were correct, incorxrect predictions are shown in red.
Predictions
W = WTAI Model O = Profit Model P = Plain Model EV = Expected Value
Fighter
Confidence
EV
Odds
W
O
P
Vicente Luque
20
17
10.2
-222
Geoff Neal
+140

Weighted Scoring Report

Fight Analysis

Stat Breakdown

Stat Vicente Luque Geoff Neal
Main Stats
Age 30 31
Height 71" 71"
Reach 76" 75"
Win Percentage 72.41% 77.78%
Wins 21 15
Losses 9 4
Wins at Weight Class 14 6
Losses at Weight Class 4 2
Striking Stats
Striking Accuracy 56.19% 51.85%
Significant Striking Accuracy 53.35% 49.39%
Strikes Landed Per Minute 6.012 5.083
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute 5.304 4.585
Knockdowns per Fight 0.907 0.849
Striking Impact Differential -4.11% -9.38%
Significant Striking Impact Differential 1.17% -4.50%
Striking Output Differential -17.94% -49.63%
Significant Striking Output Differential -10.61% -43.25%
Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 103.02% 164.59%
Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 111.63% 179.01%
Striking Defense Percentage 53.35% 62.18%
Takedown and Submission Stats
Submissions per Fight 0.817 0.170
Takedowns per Fight 0.544 0.509
Takedowns Attempted per Fight 1.089 1.019
Takedown Defense 63.33% 13.64%
Takedown Accuracy 50.00% 50.00%
Head Stats
Head Strikes Landed per Minute 3.260 4.019
Head Strikes Attempted per Minute 7.415 8.547
Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute 3.817 3.283
Body Stats
Body Strikes Landed per Minute 0.581 0.351
Body Strikes Attempted per Minute 0.865 0.509
Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.756 1.245
Leg Stats
Leg Strikes Landed per Minute 1.464 0.215
Leg kicks Attempted per Minute 1.663 0.226
Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute 0.605 0.464
Clinch Stats
Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute 0.290 0.374
Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute 0.369 0.634
Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.496 0.294
Vicente Luque History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
April 16, 2022 Welterweight Vicente Luque Belal Muhammad Belal Muhammad
Aug. 7, 2021 Welterweight Michael Chiesa Vicente Luque Vicente Luque
March 27, 2021 Welterweight Tyron Woodley Vicente Luque Vicente Luque
Aug. 1, 2020 Welterweight Vicente Luque Randy Brown Vicente Luque
May 9, 2020 Welterweight Vicente Luque Niko Price Vicente Luque
Nov. 2, 2019 Welterweight Stephen Thompson Vicente Luque Stephen Thompson
Aug. 10, 2019 Welterweight Vicente Luque Mike Perry Vicente Luque
May 18, 2019 Welterweight Vicente Luque Derrick Krantz Vicente Luque
Feb. 17, 2019 Welterweight Vicente Luque Bryan Barberena Vicente Luque
Oct. 6, 2018 Welterweight Vicente Luque Jalin Turner Vicente Luque
May 19, 2018 Welterweight Vicente Luque Chad Laprise Vicente Luque
Oct. 28, 2017 Welterweight Vicente Luque Niko Price Vicente Luque
March 18, 2017 Welterweight Leon Edwards Vicente Luque Leon Edwards
Nov. 12, 2016 Welterweight Vicente Luque Belal Muhammad Vicente Luque
Sept. 24, 2016 Welterweight Vicente Luque Hector Urbina Vicente Luque
July 7, 2016 Welterweight Vicente Luque Alvaro Herrera Mendoza Vicente Luque
Dec. 19, 2015 Welterweight Hayder Hassan Vicente Luque Vicente Luque
July 12, 2015 Welterweight Michael Graves Vicente Luque Michael Graves
Geoff Neal History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
Dec. 11, 2021 Welterweight Geoff Neal Santiago Ponzinibbio Geoff Neal
May 8, 2021 Welterweight Neil Magny Geoff Neal Neil Magny
Dec. 19, 2020 Welterweight Stephen Thompson Geoff Neal Stephen Thompson
Dec. 14, 2019 Welterweight Geoff Neal Mike Perry Geoff Neal
July 27, 2019 Welterweight Geoff Neal Niko Price Geoff Neal
Jan. 19, 2019 Welterweight Belal Muhammad Geoff Neal Geoff Neal
Sept. 8, 2018 Welterweight Geoff Neal Frank Camacho Geoff Neal
Feb. 18, 2018 Welterweight Geoff Neal Brian Camozzi Geoff Neal