The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.
Basic Prediction
This prediction was made before July 20th, 2024 and does not include detailed insights.
Score: 19 Odds: Aiemann Zahabi: +475 Javid Basharat: -700
With a recent spectacular KO over Aoriqileng, Zahabi's striking power cannot be underestimated. He’s proven capable of ending fights with a single punch, showcasing not just power but precision as well. This victory, along with his wins over Ricky Turcios and Drako Rodriguez, adds to his reputation as a fighter who can find his moment to strike effectively. Notably, Zahabi's technique, honed at Tristar Gym, demonstrates a keen sense of timing and an ability to evolve, crucial against an opponent with Basharat’s versatility. His striking defense, bolstered by a solid 70.98%, alongside his significant striking accuracy of 43.97%, indicates a well-rounded fighter comfortable on his feet. However, a glaring point of concern is Zahabi's striking differential; his recent performances show a trend where he absorbs more than he lands, a risky proposition against a high-output fighter like Basharat.
WolfTickets has a mixed prediction history with Zahabi, identifying him correctly as a victor against Aoriqileng but incorrect in the Turcios match. This history reflects the potential risk in overestimating odds based on singular performances.
Basharat steps into this fight with an impeccable record, underscoring his undefeated streak with a dominant decision victory over Mateus Mendonca. His comprehensive skill set blends striking with grappling, facilitated by an aggressive takedown strategy that sees him executing nearly twice as many takedowns per fight compared to Zahabi. Basharat's striking output is particularly notable; he lands over 7 significant strikes per minute, dwarfing Zahabi's output and highlighting his ability to control the pace and space of the fight. His striking defense (57.32%) and accuracy (64.07%) further underscore his effectiveness in exchanges. Despite a lack of knockout power shown thus far in the UFC, his overwhelming volume and pace can wear down opponents over the course of a fight. Additionally, Basharat's slight reach advantage and superior TrueSkill ranking may play crucial roles in the striking and grappling exchanges.
WolfTickets was wrong in its prediction against Tony Gravely, suggesting that while Basharat is formidable, there may be vulnerabilities yet to be fully exploited by opponents.
Both fighters showcase strengths that could determine the fight's outcome. Zahabi's knockout power poses a constant threat, requiring Basharat to navigate the striking exchanges with caution. Conversely, Basharat's volume and pace, coupled with a more dynamic attack range, could overwhelm Zahabi, particularly if the fight extends into later rounds.
Key factors propelling the prediction towards Basharat include his higher TrueSkill ranking and significant striking impact differential, enhancing his win probability. Additionally, his striking output and defensive capabilities suggest he can manage Zahabi's power while outlanding him. The SHAP_DATA points towards Basharat’s winning aspects, with his true skill and recent win percentage being notable contributors to WolfTicketsAI's confidence in his victory.
The model's mixed track record with Zahabi adds an element of uncertainty to this prediction. While Basharat’s performance against Gravely was misjudged, his subsequent victories affirm the model's ability to recognize his evolving skill set as a reliable indicator of success.
Considering both fighters' trajectories, styles, and the SHAP_DATA insights, Javid Basharat is poised to maintain his undefeated record against Aiemann Zahabi. Basharat’s volume striking, higher-paced fighting style, and proven ability to handle diverse threats inside the octagon underscore this prediction. The ongoing refinement of his technique, alongside a formidable win streak, suggests Basharat will outwork Zahabi to secure victory, leveraging his superior striking output and defensive skills.
Stat | Aiemann Zahabi | Javid Basharat | Weight Class Average | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Main Stats | ||||
Age | 36 | 28 | 31 | |
Height | 68" | 69" | 68" | |
Reach | 68" | 69" | 69" | |
Win Percentage | 83.33% | 100.00% | 80.77% | |
Wins | 11 | 14 | ||
Losses | 2 | 1 | ||
Wins at Weight Class | 4 | 3 | ||
Losses at Weight Class | 2 | 1 | ||
Striking Stats | ||||
Striking Accuracy | 44.37% | 64.07% | 48.33% | |
Significant Striking Accuracy | 43.97% | 60.49% | 42.65% | |
Strikes Landed Per Minute | 3.092 | 7.025 | 5.240 | |
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute | 3.043 | 5.851 | 3.892 | |
Knockdowns per Fight | 0.736 | 0.000 | 0.658 | |
Striking Impact Differential | -5.50% | 38.00% | 5.87% | |
Significant Striking Impact Differential | -3.67% | 36.25% | 4.12% | |
Striking Output Differential | -56.50% | 20.00% | 6.02% | |
Significant Striking Output Differential | -54.67% | 17.75% | 4.11% | |
Striking Defense to Offense Ratio | 287.30% | 76.49% | 95.93% | |
Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio | 291.94% | 90.48% | 119.94% | |
Striking Defense Percentage | 72.30% | 64.10% | 52.61% | |
Takedown and Submission Stats | ||||
Submissions per Fight | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.568 | |
Takedowns per Fight | 0.245 | 1.791 | 1.519 | |
Takedowns Attempted per Fight | 1.473 | 3.881 | 3.850 | |
Takedown Defense | 33.33% | 16.67% | 73.89% | |
Takedown Accuracy | 16.67% | 46.15% | 31.17% | |
Head Stats | ||||
Head Strikes Landed per Minute | 1.996 | 3.423 | 2.504 | |
Head Strikes Attempted per Minute | 5.514 | 6.886 | 6.606 | |
Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 1.767 | 1.473 | 2.222 | |
Body Stats | ||||
Body Strikes Landed per Minute | 0.491 | 1.552 | 0.791 | |
Body Strikes Attempted per Minute | 0.753 | 1.871 | 1.153 | |
Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 0.687 | 0.537 | 0.715 | |
Leg Stats | ||||
Leg Strikes Landed per Minute | 0.556 | 0.876 | 0.598 | |
Leg kicks Attempted per Minute | 0.655 | 0.915 | 0.733 | |
Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute | 0.949 | 0.955 | 0.564 | |
Clinch Stats | ||||
Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute | 0.164 | 0.597 | 0.377 | |
Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute | 0.229 | 0.756 | 0.514 | |
Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 0.115 | 0.159 | 0.312 |
Date | Weight | Elevation | Red Corner | Blue Corner | Winner |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
June 10, 2023 | Bantamweight | Aiemann Zahabi | Aoriqileng | Aiemann Zahabi | |
July 9, 2022 | Bantamweight | Aiemann Zahabi | Ricky Turcios | Aiemann Zahabi | |
Feb. 20, 2021 | Bantamweight | Aiemann Zahabi | Drako Rodriguez | Aiemann Zahabi | |
May 4, 2019 | Bantamweight | Aiemann Zahabi | Vince Morales | Vince Morales | |
Nov. 4, 2017 | Bantamweight | Aiemann Zahabi | Ricardo Ramos | Ricardo Ramos | |
Feb. 19, 2017 | Bantamweight | Aiemann Zahabi | Reginaldo Vieira | Aiemann Zahabi |
Date | Weight | Elevation | Red Corner | Blue Corner | Winner |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct. 21, 2023 | Bantamweight | Javid Basharat | Victor Henry | None | |
Jan. 14, 2023 | Bantamweight | Javid Basharat | Mateus Mendonca | Javid Basharat | |
Sept. 17, 2022 | Bantamweight | Tony Gravely | Javid Basharat | Javid Basharat | |
March 12, 2022 | Bantamweight | Trevin Jones | Javid Basharat | Javid Basharat |