Aiemann Zahabi vs. Javid Basharat - UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev Results & AI Breakdown

Winner: Aiemann Zahabi by Decision - Unanimous

Fight Info:
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Elevation: 778.00m
Weight Class: Bantamweight
Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org…

The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.

The predictions below are shown in dark grey if they were correct, incorxrect predictions are shown in red.
Predictions
Fighter
WolfTicketsAI
Profit
Plain
Odds When Predicted

Weighted Scoring Report

Fight Analysis

Analysis: Aiemann Zahabi vs Javid Basharat

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Javid Basharat to Win

Score: 19 Odds: Aiemann Zahabi: +475 Javid Basharat: -700

Aiemann Zahabi's Breakdown

With a recent spectacular KO over Aoriqileng, Zahabi's striking power cannot be underestimated. He’s proven capable of ending fights with a single punch, showcasing not just power but precision as well. This victory, along with his wins over Ricky Turcios and Drako Rodriguez, adds to his reputation as a fighter who can find his moment to strike effectively. Notably, Zahabi's technique, honed at Tristar Gym, demonstrates a keen sense of timing and an ability to evolve, crucial against an opponent with Basharat’s versatility. His striking defense, bolstered by a solid 70.98%, alongside his significant striking accuracy of 43.97%, indicates a well-rounded fighter comfortable on his feet. However, a glaring point of concern is Zahabi's striking differential; his recent performances show a trend where he absorbs more than he lands, a risky proposition against a high-output fighter like Basharat.

Past Predictions:

WolfTickets has a mixed prediction history with Zahabi, identifying him correctly as a victor against Aoriqileng but incorrect in the Turcios match. This history reflects the potential risk in overestimating odds based on singular performances.

Javid Basharat's Breakdown

Basharat steps into this fight with an impeccable record, underscoring his undefeated streak with a dominant decision victory over Mateus Mendonca. His comprehensive skill set blends striking with grappling, facilitated by an aggressive takedown strategy that sees him executing nearly twice as many takedowns per fight compared to Zahabi. Basharat's striking output is particularly notable; he lands over 7 significant strikes per minute, dwarfing Zahabi's output and highlighting his ability to control the pace and space of the fight. His striking defense (57.32%) and accuracy (64.07%) further underscore his effectiveness in exchanges. Despite a lack of knockout power shown thus far in the UFC, his overwhelming volume and pace can wear down opponents over the course of a fight. Additionally, Basharat's slight reach advantage and superior TrueSkill ranking may play crucial roles in the striking and grappling exchanges.

Past Predictions:

WolfTickets was wrong in its prediction against Tony Gravely, suggesting that while Basharat is formidable, there may be vulnerabilities yet to be fully exploited by opponents.

Analysis and Key Points

Both fighters showcase strengths that could determine the fight's outcome. Zahabi's knockout power poses a constant threat, requiring Basharat to navigate the striking exchanges with caution. Conversely, Basharat's volume and pace, coupled with a more dynamic attack range, could overwhelm Zahabi, particularly if the fight extends into later rounds.

Understanding the Prediction

Key factors propelling the prediction towards Basharat include his higher TrueSkill ranking and significant striking impact differential, enhancing his win probability. Additionally, his striking output and defensive capabilities suggest he can manage Zahabi's power while outlanding him. The SHAP_DATA points towards Basharat’s winning aspects, with his true skill and recent win percentage being notable contributors to WolfTicketsAI's confidence in his victory.

Past Model Performance

The model's mixed track record with Zahabi adds an element of uncertainty to this prediction. While Basharat’s performance against Gravely was misjudged, his subsequent victories affirm the model's ability to recognize his evolving skill set as a reliable indicator of success.

Conclusion

Considering both fighters' trajectories, styles, and the SHAP_DATA insights, Javid Basharat is poised to maintain his undefeated record against Aiemann Zahabi. Basharat’s volume striking, higher-paced fighting style, and proven ability to handle diverse threats inside the octagon underscore this prediction. The ongoing refinement of his technique, alongside a formidable win streak, suggests Basharat will outwork Zahabi to secure victory, leveraging his superior striking output and defensive skills.

Stat Breakdown

Stat Aiemann Zahabi Javid Basharat
Main Stats
Age 36 28
Height 68" 69"
Reach 68" 69"
Win Percentage 83.33% 100.00%
Wins 11 14
Losses 2 1
Wins at Weight Class 4 3
Losses at Weight Class 2 1
Striking Stats
Striking Accuracy 44.37% 64.07%
Significant Striking Accuracy 43.97% 60.49%
Strikes Landed Per Minute 3.092 7.025
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute 3.043 5.851
Knockdowns per Fight 0.736 0.000
Striking Impact Differential -5.50% 38.00%
Significant Striking Impact Differential -3.67% 36.25%
Striking Output Differential -56.50% 20.00%
Significant Striking Output Differential -54.67% 17.75%
Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 287.30% 76.49%
Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 291.94% 90.48%
Striking Defense Percentage 72.30% 64.10%
Takedown and Submission Stats
Submissions per Fight 0.000 0.000
Takedowns per Fight 0.245 1.791
Takedowns Attempted per Fight 1.473 3.881
Takedown Defense 33.33% 16.67%
Takedown Accuracy 16.67% 46.15%
Head Stats
Head Strikes Landed per Minute 1.996 3.423
Head Strikes Attempted per Minute 5.514 6.886
Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute 1.767 1.473
Body Stats
Body Strikes Landed per Minute 0.491 1.552
Body Strikes Attempted per Minute 0.753 1.871
Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.687 0.537
Leg Stats
Leg Strikes Landed per Minute 0.556 0.876
Leg kicks Attempted per Minute 0.655 0.915
Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute 0.949 0.955
Clinch Stats
Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute 0.164 0.597
Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute 0.229 0.756
Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.115 0.159
Aiemann Zahabi History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
June 10, 2023 Bantamweight Aiemann Zahabi Aoriqileng Aiemann Zahabi
July 9, 2022 Bantamweight Aiemann Zahabi Ricky Turcios Aiemann Zahabi
Feb. 20, 2021 Bantamweight Aiemann Zahabi Drako Rodriguez Aiemann Zahabi
May 4, 2019 Bantamweight Aiemann Zahabi Vince Morales Vince Morales
Nov. 4, 2017 Bantamweight Aiemann Zahabi Ricardo Ramos Ricardo Ramos
Feb. 19, 2017 Bantamweight Aiemann Zahabi Reginaldo Vieira Aiemann Zahabi
Javid Basharat History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
Oct. 21, 2023 Bantamweight Javid Basharat Victor Henry None
Jan. 14, 2023 Bantamweight Javid Basharat Mateus Mendonca Javid Basharat
Sept. 17, 2022 Bantamweight Tony Gravely Javid Basharat Javid Basharat
March 12, 2022 Bantamweight Trevin Jones Javid Basharat Javid Basharat