Analysis: Ricardo Ramos vs Kaan Ofli

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Ricardo Ramos to Win

Score: 12
Odds:
Ricardo Ramos: -215
Kaan Ofli: +164

Ricardo Ramos's Breakdown

Ramos brings 17 UFC fights worth of experience into this featherweight matchup, but he's limping in on a brutal two-fight skid. His recent form is concerning—he's 2-5 in his last seven and just dropped a decision to Chepe Mariscal in March. That said, when Ramos is on, he's dangerous as hell.

His signature weapon remains the spinning back elbow. Against Danny Chavez in 2022, Ramos backed him to the fence, feinted a level change to drop Chavez's hands, then uncorked a spinning elbow that ended the night. It's a high-risk move, but Ramos has the timing down—he chains it off missed lead elbows, as he did against Mariscal in Round 3, rotating through 180 degrees and catching his opponent advancing back into range.

The lead elbow entry is another staple. Ramos steps deep with his front foot, swinging the lead elbow in a committed arc to cover distance. It's unorthodox and effective when opponents are fence-backed or advancing, but he sometimes throws it in open space where opponents can retreat and counter down the centerline.

His grappling game is slick. Ramos integrates boxing-to-wrestling beautifully, using duck-unders after punch combinations to access body locks and back exposure. His inside trip game from collar-tie or underhook positions is reliable for positional advancement. Against Mariscal, he attempted a taiotoshi throw from overhook control, and when it failed, he immediately transitioned to a calf slicer attempt—showing submission creativity beyond standard attacks.

But here's the problem: Ramos's shot selection goes to hell when he's losing. Against Mariscal, down two rounds, he opened Round 3 with a rabona kick—a crossover kick with zero practical application. He's attempted this nonsense 20+ times in single fights before, sacrificing position and energy for techniques that rarely land and do minimal damage when they do. His strategic discipline collapses under pressure, and he chases highlight-reel finishes instead of grinding out wins.

Ricardo Ramos's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Catastrophic Shot Selection Under Adversity (Rounds 2-3 vs Mariscal, Round 1 vs Erosa)

When Ramos faces scoreboard pressure, he abandons high-percentage techniques for spectacular garbage. Against Mariscal, entering Round 3 down on the cards, he threw a rabona kick instead of using his proven inside trips and spinning elbows. Against Julian Erosa in 2024, he dropped Erosa early but then shot a poorly-timed takedown and got guillotined in Round 1. Against Charles Jourdain in 2023, same story—guillotined in Round 1 after overcommitting. This pattern is exploitable: establish early control, get ahead on the scorecards, and watch Ramos self-destruct with low-percentage techniques.

2. Lead Elbow Entry Timing Against Open Space (Round 3 vs Mariscal)

Ramos's lead elbow requires deep penetration steps, placing both feet on a narrow line and compromising lateral mobility. Against Mariscal, he threw this in open space where his opponent could retreat, leaving him vulnerable to straight punches during recovery. The technique works when opponents are fence-backed or advancing, but Ramos doesn't consistently assess opponent state before committing. This creates counter-punching windows, especially for fighters who can read the deep step and fire straight down the middle.

3. Submission Vulnerability in Transitions (Round 1 vs Erosa, Round 1 vs Jourdain)

Ramos has been guillotined in back-to-back losses to Erosa and Jourdain, both in Round 1. His aggressive takedown entries leave his neck exposed when opponents sprawl and latch onto the guillotine. Against Erosa, he went for a takedown after dropping him, and Erosa immediately locked up the choke. His defensive awareness during wrestling transitions is poor—he prioritizes position advancement over neck safety, and competent grapplers are capitalizing.

Kaan Ofli's Breakdown

Ofli enters the UFC at 0-2 after losses to Mairon Santos (TKO) and Muhammad Naimov (unanimous decision). He's fighting for his job, and his performances so far have been rough. Against Santos in the TUF 32 finale, Ofli got caught with an overhand right and finished on his knees. Against Naimov in February, he was thoroughly outclassed—controlled against the fence, taken down repeatedly, and held in back control for over three minutes in Round 3.

Ofli's striking centers around leg kicks and an overhand right. He uses the leg kicks to disrupt movement and set up his power hand. Against Naimov, he cracked him with a clean uppercut in Round 2, showing he can find openings in the pocket. His clinch work includes knees to the thigh and elbows over the top, and he showed decent underhook control with reversals against the fence.

His grappling is supposed to be a strength—he's got a BJJ background with submissions like rear-naked chokes and armbars. But here's the issue: his takedown offense is nonexistent (0% success rate in the UFC), and his takedown defense is catastrophic (15% defense rate against Naimov). When opponents get him down, he can defend submissions—he fought off a body triangle and rear-naked choke attempt for three minutes against Naimov—but he can't get back up or reverse position effectively.

Ofli's output is abysmal. He landed 31 significant strikes total against Naimov and averages 1.85 significant strikes per minute. Compare that to Ramos's 2.97 per minute, and you see the activity gap. Ofli darts in and out with kicks but can't sustain pressure or volume.

Kaan Ofli's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Takedown Defense Collapse (Round 2-3 vs Naimov)

Ofli's 15% takedown defense rate is UFC-bottom-tier. Against Naimov, he got taken down in Round 2 with two minutes left, immediately giving up side control. In Round 3, Naimov took him down, moved to mount, forced him to give up his back, and held him there for over three minutes. Ofli couldn't create scrambles or wall-walk—he just survived in bad positions. Ramos averages 2.57 takedowns per fight on 57.5% accuracy. Ofli will spend significant time on his back, and his inability to get up or reverse will cost him rounds.

2. Striking Volume and Output Deficiency (All UFC fights)

Ofli landed 31 total significant strikes against Naimov and averages 1.18 significant strikes per minute in recent fights. His striking defense is equally poor—32.95% in recent bouts, meaning he's eating two strikes for every one he lands. Against Santos, he got caught with an overhand because he overcommitted to his own punches, leaving his chin exposed. His footwork is poor, and he gets off-balance easily—Santos decked him with a two-punch burst when Ofli was off-balance, and Naimov did the same late in Round 1. Ramos's spinning attacks and lead elbows will find a home against someone who can't maintain stance stability.

3. Cage Control and Fence Wrestling (Round 1-3 vs Naimov)

Naimov repeatedly turned Ofli into the fence and controlled him there with short punches and body shots. Ofli managed brief reversals with double underhooks but couldn't sustain control—Naimov reversed immediately and landed five-six punch combos that forced Ofli to cover up. Ramos excels in the clinch with inside trips and duck-unders to back exposure. Ofli's inability to control cage position or win fence battles means Ramos will dictate where this fight takes place.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This is a nightmare matchup for Ofli. Ramos's takedown game directly attacks Ofli's worst vulnerability—his 15% takedown defense. Ramos will shoot early and often, and Ofli has shown zero ability to stop takedowns or get back up once grounded. Ramos's inside trips from the clinch will work perfectly against Ofli's poor cage control and fence wrestling.

On the feet, Ramos's spinning elbows and lead elbows exploit Ofli's poor striking defense (32.95%) and balance issues. Ofli gets off-balance easily and eats shots when he overcommits—exactly the scenarios where Ramos's spinning techniques shine. Against Mariscal, Ramos landed the spinning elbow when his opponent advanced back into range after a missed lead elbow. Ofli's tendency to dart in and out with kicks creates similar timing windows.

Ofli's best path is landing his overhand right early and often, hoping to catch Ramos clean like Santos did. But Ramos has eaten shots from harder hitters (Lerone Murphy TKO'd him in 2020) and survived. Ofli's 1.18 significant strikes per minute output won't generate enough offense to threaten a finish.

Ofli's grappling—his supposed strength—won't matter because he can't initiate takedowns (0% success rate) and can't stop Ramos's. Once Ramos gets top position, Ofli's defensive BJJ will keep him alive but won't win rounds. Ramos's submission rate (0.67 per fight) means Ofli will be defending choke attempts all night.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early Rounds (1-2): Ramos establishes his takedown game immediately. Ofli's 15% takedown defense means Ramos will get him down within the first two minutes. Once there, Ramos controls position with his inside trips and back-take sequences. Ofli survives but loses clear 10-9 rounds. On the feet, Ramos's spinning elbows find openings against Ofli's poor defense. Ofli lands occasional leg kicks and maybe an overhand, but his 1.18 significant strikes per minute output isn't enough to win exchanges.

Mid-Fight Adjustments (Round 2-3): If Ofli somehow stuffs early takedowns, Ramos shifts to clinch work. His duck-unders and inside trips from collar-tie positions overwhelm Ofli's weak cage control. Ofli attempts reversals with underhooks but can't sustain them—Ramos immediately counters and lands short elbows and knees. Ofli's output drops further as fatigue sets in from defensive grappling. Ramos's cardio (he's gone to decision 7 times) allows him to maintain pace.

Late Rounds (If it goes there): Ramos's submission game becomes more dangerous as Ofli fatigues. Ramos hunts rear-naked chokes and calf slicers from back control. Ofli's defensive BJJ keeps him alive—he defended Naimov's rear-naked choke for three minutes—but he's losing rounds badly on the scorecards. If Ramos is ahead, his shot selection stays disciplined. If somehow behind, he might revert to rabona kicks and low-percentage techniques, but Ofli's lack of offense means Ramos won't face scoreboard pressure.

Analysis and Key Points

• Takedown Dominance: Ramos's 2.57 takedowns per fight on 57.5% accuracy vs Ofli's 15% takedown defense is the fight in a nutshell. Ofli will spend significant time on his back.

• Output Disparity: Ramos lands 2.97 significant strikes per minute; Ofli lands 1.18. Even on the feet, Ramos wins the volume battle.

• Experience Gap: Ramos has 17 UFC fights; Ofli has 2. Ramos has faced elite competition (Zubaira Tukhugov, Lerone Murphy); Ofli got dominated by mid-tier opponents.

• Submission Threat: Ramos's 0.67 submissions per fight means Ofli will defend choke attempts all night. Ofli's neck defense in transitions is untested at this level.

• Heuristic Warning - Recent KO Loss: Ofli was TKO'd by Santos in August 2024, just eight months ago. His chin and defensive awareness remain questionable.

• Heuristic Warning - Downward Trend: Ofli is 0-2 in the UFC and 0-2 in recent fights. He's fighting for his job with zero momentum.

• Reach Advantage: Ramos has a 72-inch reach vs Ofli's 66 inches—a 6-inch advantage that helps his spinning techniques and lead elbows land from range.

Understanding the Prediction

The model gives Ramos a score of 12, driven primarily by the betting odds (increased score by 9 points). The odds reflect the massive skill and experience gap—Ramos is -215 for good reason.

Odds increased the prediction score by 9.0—the market correctly identifies Ramos as a heavy favorite despite his recent losses.

Recent Win Percentage increased the score by 2.0—Ramos's 33% recent win rate still exceeds Ofli's 0%.

Reach increased the score by 2.0—Ramos's 6-inch reach advantage helps his unorthodox striking land.

Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight increased the score by 2.0—Ramos's 4.30 attempts per fight directly attack Ofli's worst vulnerability.

TrueSkill decreased the score by 1.0—Ofli's inflated TrueSkill (due to limited UFC data) slightly favors him, but the model correctly weighs other factors more heavily.

Striking Defense Percentage decreased the score by 1.0—Ramos's 50% defense is poor, but Ofli's 32.95% is worse, and his output is too low to exploit it.

The model identifies the key factors: Ramos's betting odds, takedown volume, and reach advantage overwhelm Ofli's defensive deficiencies. Even with Ramos's recent struggles, Ofli's 0-2 UFC record and catastrophic takedown defense make him a clear underdog.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a mixed record on Ramos. It correctly predicted his win over Danny Chavez (score 0.78) but incorrectly favored him against Julian Erosa (0.60) and Charles Jourdain (0.70)—both guillotine losses. It also incorrectly predicted Josh Culibao over Ramos (0.61), and correctly predicted Mariscal over Ramos (0.77).

The pattern: the model struggles when Ramos faces competent grapplers who can capitalize on his submission vulnerabilities. But Ofli isn't a competent grappler at this level—his 0% takedown success rate and 15% defense mean he can't implement his grappling game.

For Ofli, the model correctly predicted Naimov to beat him (0.68). This is the model's first prediction favoring Ofli's opponent besides that fight, and the data supports it.

The caution: Ramos can lose to anyone if he gets guillotined again. But Ofli's lack of takedown offense means he won't create those scenarios. The model's confidence is justified.

Conclusion

Ramos takes this fight by decision or submission. His takedown game overwhelms Ofli's nonexistent defense, and his experience advantage shows in every phase. Ofli's 0-2 UFC record and catastrophic grappling defense make him a sacrificial matchup for Ramos to get back in the win column. Expect Ramos to control position, rack up control time, and either grind out a decision or find a submission in Rounds 2-3. WolfTicketsAI's pick of Ramos is sound—this is a get-right fight for the Brazilian, and Ofli doesn't have the tools to stop it.