Analysis: Lucas Rocha vs Stewart Nicoll

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Stewart Nicoll to Win

Score: 5
Odds:
Lucas Rocha: -130
Stewart Nicoll: +102

Lucas Rocha's Breakdown

Rocha enters this matchup coming off a brutal UFC debut loss to Clayton Carpenter at UFC Vegas 98, where he was submitted by rear-naked choke in Round 2. The Brazilian showed flashes of his striking potential early in that fight, landing his right hand with combinations to the body and connecting with a flying knee in Round 2 that briefly shook Carpenter. But once Carpenter blitzed forward and tackled him to the mat, Rocha's night turned into a nightmare.

The 24-year-old's striking carries legitimate power. Against Carpenter, he was already landing clean right hands early and mixing in body kicks effectively. When Carpenter rushed into a brawl, Rocha obliged and traded volume, showing he's willing to stand and bang. His flying knee in Round 2 demonstrated explosive timing, and he's capable of generating fight-ending power from unorthodox angles.

But here's the reality: Rocha has zero takedowns in his lone UFC appearance, attempted zero takedowns, and his 66% takedown defense proved catastrophic against Carpenter's wrestling. Once on his back, Rocha absorbed devastating elbows that opened cuts on both eyebrows and his nose. He scrambled madly but couldn't escape Carpenter's heavy shoulder pressure. When he finally worked to his knees, Carpenter immediately dragged him back to half guard. Rocha never got back to his feet in Round 1.

His stats paint an ugly picture on the ground. He's landing just 2.36 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.06 head strikes per minute. His striking defense sits at 41.94%, and his significant striking defense is barely better at 43.33%. The Brazilian is getting hit more than he's landing, and his -17 significant striking impact differential shows he's losing exchanges badly.

Lucas Rocha's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Catastrophic Takedown Defense & Scramble Awareness
Rocha's takedown defense completely collapsed against Carpenter. When he slowed things down hunting for a jump knee, Carpenter suddenly blitzed forward and tackled him to the mat. Rocha landed in half guard and scrambled madly but couldn't get the American off him. His 15% takedown accuracy and inability to stuff Carpenter's entries exposed fundamental wrestling deficiencies. Even when he bucked his hips and briefly sat up, Carpenter met him with a front choke and bowled him back down. Rocha attempted to spring back up in Round 2 after another takedown, but Carpenter jumped on his back with a body triangle and sunk in the rear-naked choke. His inability to recognize back exposure and defend transitions is exploitable.

2. Bottom Position Helplessness
Once on his back, Rocha remained nullified by Carpenter's heavy shoulder pressure. He absorbed multiple elbows that ripped his left eyebrow open and caused additional cuts under his opposite eye and on his nose. Blood leaked into his eye, compromising his vision, yet he couldn't create space or initiate meaningful escapes. He fought off one arm-triangle setup but immediately got stuck in mount, where Carpenter jackhammered more elbows. Rocha thought about a leglock from his back but never came close to threatening. His guard retention is non-existent, and his hip mobility under pressure is severely limited.

3. Distance Management on Wrestling Entries
Rocha's flying knee in Round 2 had Carpenter shooting for a takedown, but it was from too far out, indicating poor timing and distance control. He can't recognize when opponents are setting up level changes, and his footwork doesn't allow him to circle away from the cage when pressure fighters close distance. This leaves him vulnerable to anyone who can mix strikes with takedown threats.

Stewart Nicoll's Breakdown

Nicoll suffered a devastating UFC debut loss to Jesus Aguilar at UFC 305, getting guillotined unconscious at 2:39 of Round 1. But before that fatal error, the Australian showed exactly why he was an 8-0 prospect with serious hype. He used a kimura sweep to reverse position and put Aguilar on his back, then advanced to back mount and landed solid ground-and-pound. His Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu pedigree (bronze medal at 2015 Gi World's at purple belt) was on full display.

The problem? Nicoll got overaggressive. As Aguilar scrambled up, Nicoll changed levels without protecting his neck, and Aguilar—a guillotine specialist with five career guillotine wins—jumped on it. The choke got tighter and tighter until Nicoll went unconscious, refusing to tap.

Nicoll's wrestling is his bread and butter. He averages 5.66 takedowns per fight on 100% accuracy. He's landing 3.02 significant strikes per minute while absorbing just 1.13 head strikes per minute. His striking output differential is +24, his significant striking impact differential is +5, and his striking accuracy sits at 51.72%. The Australian pressures opponents with leg kicks (0.75 landed per minute) and head strikes (1.51 per minute) before crashing into grappling exchanges.

His takedown defense is perfect at 100%, though that's only been tested in one UFC fight. He's shown solid positional awareness when not over-pursuing finishes, and his ability to advance from guard to back mount demonstrates high-level grappling IQ.

Stewart Nicoll's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Neck Exposure During Scrambles
Nicoll's most glaring weakness was exposed against Aguilar. As he scrambled up from bottom position, Nicoll left his neck out, and Aguilar jumped on the guillotine. Nicoll was trying to keep his hold but left his head out there too long. As he changed levels, his head position and posture were compromised, allowing Aguilar to lock in the choke. This represents a fundamental defensive error in grappling transitions that any submission-aware opponent can exploit. Given that Rocha has shown submission awareness (he thought about a leglock against Carpenter), this vulnerability could be tested again.

2. Over-Aggression in Dominant Positions
Nicoll did plenty of good work early against Aguilar, landing ground-and-pound from back mount and controlling position. But his desire to finish compromised his positional awareness. Instead of maintaining control and grinding out damage, he pursued the finish and left openings during transitions. This over-aggression cost him the fight when Aguilar capitalized on the scramble. Against an opponent who's desperate to avoid the mat like Rocha, Nicoll might repeat this mistake if he secures dominant position early.

3. Limited UFC Sample Size & Regional Competition Level
Nicoll's 8-0 record came entirely from the Australian regional scene, which is generally subpar in terms of churning out high-level wrestlers. His lone UFC appearance exposed gaps between regional dominance and UFC-caliber competition. While his grappling fundamentals are sound, his defensive awareness in chaotic exchanges needs refinement. Rocha's explosive striking and willingness to throw flying knees could create the kind of scrambles where Nicoll's neck becomes available.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This matchup hinges entirely on where the fight takes place. Nicoll's 5.66 takedowns per fight on 100% accuracy directly targets Rocha's catastrophic 66% takedown defense. When Carpenter blitzed forward and tackled Rocha to the mat, Rocha scrambled madly but couldn't escape. Nicoll's pressure-heavy approach—mixing leg kicks and head strikes before crashing into grappling exchanges—mirrors Carpenter's blueprint for success.

Rocha's best path to victory is landing his explosive right hand or flying knee before Nicoll closes distance. Against Carpenter, Rocha's flying knee in Round 2 briefly shook his opponent, and his early right hands found their mark. But Carpenter shot from too far out, giving Rocha time to react. Nicoll's wrestling entries are more calculated, and his 100% takedown accuracy suggests better timing and setup.

Once on the ground, Nicoll's kimura sweeps and back control directly exploit Rocha's inability to escape bottom position. Rocha remained nullified by Carpenter's shoulder pressure and never got back to his feet in Round 1. Nicoll's ground-and-pound from back mount would replicate the damage Carpenter inflicted, potentially opening cuts and compromising Rocha's vision again.

However, Rocha's submission awareness (he fought off an arm-triangle and thought about a leglock against Carpenter) could threaten Nicoll if the Australian over-pursues finishes. Nicoll's neck exposure during scrambles is a legitimate vulnerability. If Rocha can survive the initial takedown and create a scramble, Nicoll's tendency to leave his head out could provide an opening for a guillotine or front choke.

The striking exchanges favor Rocha's power but Nicoll's output. Rocha lands 2.36 significant strikes per minute with 41.46% accuracy, while Nicoll lands 3.02 significant strikes per minute with 47.06% accuracy. Nicoll's leg kicks (0.75 per minute) set up his wrestling entries, while Rocha's body kicks and right hands carry more finishing power. But Nicoll absorbs just 1.13 head strikes per minute compared to Rocha's 3.06, indicating better defensive awareness on the feet.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early Rounds (0-5 minutes):
Nicoll will pressure immediately with leg kicks and head strikes, looking to close distance and secure his first takedown. Rocha will try to establish his right hand and body kicks, hunting for the flying knee that briefly troubled Carpenter. If Nicoll shoots from distance like Carpenter did in Round 2, Rocha might time a knee. But Nicoll's 100% takedown accuracy suggests better entries. Once Nicoll secures the first takedown, Rocha's night becomes a grind. Nicoll will advance to back mount or half guard and land ground-and-pound, replicating Carpenter's blueprint.

Mid-Fight Adjustments (5-10 minutes):
If Rocha survives the first round, he'll need to keep Nicoll at range with leg kicks and body shots. But his -17 significant striking impact differential shows he's losing exchanges, and Nicoll's +5 differential indicates he's winning them. Rocha's cardio is untested beyond two rounds, and the accumulation of takedowns and ground-and-pound will sap his energy. Nicoll's wrestling pace (5.66 takedowns per fight) is relentless. If Rocha gets desperate and over-pursues a finish, Nicoll's scrambling ability could create opportunities for transitions, though his neck exposure remains a risk.

Championship Rounds (10-15 minutes, if applicable):
This fight likely doesn't see championship rounds. Rocha's inability to get back to his feet against Carpenter suggests he'll accumulate damage on the ground until a finish occurs. Nicoll's ground-and-pound from back mount could open cuts like Carpenter's elbows did, potentially forcing a doctor's stoppage or TKO. If Nicoll over-pursues a submission and leaves his neck exposed during a scramble, Rocha could capitalize with a guillotine, but his submission rate (0.00 per fight) suggests this is unlikely.

Analysis and Key Points

• Rocha's wrestling deficiencies are catastrophic: His 66% takedown defense and inability to escape bottom position against Carpenter directly feed into Nicoll's 5.66 takedowns per fight on 100% accuracy.

• Nicoll's blueprint mirrors Carpenter's success: Pressure with strikes, crash into grappling exchanges, advance to dominant positions, and grind out damage. Rocha has no answers for this approach.

• Rocha's explosive striking is his only path: His flying knee and right hand carry fight-ending power, but he needs to land them before Nicoll closes distance. Carpenter's blitz takedown came after Rocha slowed things down hunting for a jump knee—Nicoll will exploit the same opening.

• Nicoll's neck exposure is a legitimate concern: His guillotine loss to Aguilar exposed poor head position during scrambles. If Rocha survives the initial onslaught and creates chaos, Nicoll's over-aggression could backfire.

• Both fighters are coming off submission losses: Rocha was choked unconscious by rear-naked choke; Nicoll was guillotined unconscious. Both have shown vulnerability to neck attacks, but Nicoll's offensive grappling makes him the aggressor here.

• Limited UFC sample size for both: Rocha is 0-1, Nicoll is 0-1. Both are unproven at this level, but Nicoll's wrestling credentials and statistical advantages suggest better adaptability.

Understanding the Prediction

The model heavily favors Nicoll based on several key factors:

• Odds increased the prediction score by 5.0: Nicoll is a +102 underdog despite superior wrestling stats and a more favorable stylistic matchup. The betting market is undervaluing his grappling advantage.

• Recent Win Percentage increased the prediction score by 3.0: Both fighters are 0-1 in the UFC, but Nicoll's 8-1 overall record (88.9% win rate) edges Rocha's 17-2 (89.47% win rate) when accounting for recent performance trends.

• Significant Striking Impact Differential decreased the prediction score by 3.0: Rocha's -17 differential is worse than Nicoll's +5, but the model accounts for Rocha's power striking and explosive finishing ability, which could end the fight early.

• Recent Significant Striking Impact Differential decreased the prediction score by 2.0: Similar reasoning—Rocha's striking carries more finishing threat despite lower output.

• TrueSkill decreased the prediction score by 1.0: Both fighters have identical TrueSkill ratings (Mu: 25.0, Sigma: 8.333), indicating the model sees them as evenly matched in overall skill, though stylistic factors favor Nicoll.

The model's confidence score of 5 reflects a close fight with Nicoll holding a slight edge due to his wrestling advantage and Rocha's proven inability to defend takedowns or escape bottom position.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has no prior prediction history for either Lucas Rocha or Stewart Nicoll. Both fighters are making their second UFC appearances after debut losses, so there's no track record to evaluate the model's accuracy on these specific athletes. This adds uncertainty to the prediction, but the stylistic analysis and statistical differentials provide strong justification for favoring Nicoll.

Conclusion

Nicoll's wrestling will be the difference. Rocha's 66% takedown defense and inability to escape bottom position against Carpenter directly feed into Nicoll's 5.66 takedowns per fight on perfect accuracy. Once Nicoll secures the first takedown, he'll replicate Carpenter's blueprint: advance to back mount, land ground-and-pound, and grind out damage until Rocha breaks. Rocha's explosive striking gives him a puncher's chance early, but his defensive liabilities on the ground are too severe. Nicoll's neck exposure during scrambles is a concern, but Rocha's 0.00 submissions per fight suggests he won't capitalize. WolfTicketsAI backs Stewart Nicoll to rebound from his debut loss and hand Rocha his second straight defeat, likely by submission or TKO in Round 2.