Analysis: Deiveson Figueiredo vs Montel Jackson

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Montel Jackson to Win

Score: 28
Odds:
Deiveson Figueiredo: +220
Montel Jackson: -295

Deiveson Figueiredo's Breakdown

Figueiredo arrives at bantamweight after a brutal stretch—he's lost three of his last four, including a devastating second-round heel hook loss to Cory Sandhagen in May 2025 that exposed catastrophic gaps in his leg entanglement knowledge. Before that, Petr Yan systematically outboxed him over five rounds, and Brandon Moreno finished him via doctor's stoppage after landing a left hook counter that Figueiredo never saw coming.

The former flyweight champion's signature tools remain dangerous when he can impose them. His Pantoja-style leg entries from half guard—scooping under the opponent's leg, throwing his own leg over centerline, and reaping inward—create scramble opportunities. Against Marlon Vera, he executed flawless punch-to-wrestling transitions, throwing combinations, pulling back from counters, then shooting takedowns. His body shot accumulation slowed Vera throughout three rounds, and he dropped him in the final frame.

But Figueiredo's technical evolution has been incomplete. His guillotine hunting from bottom position against Sandhagen left him eating ground strikes for entire rounds. When he secured back body lock standing against Sandhagen in round two, simple hand separation reversed the position—a fundamental hand-fighting failure. His 50/50 leg entanglement knowledge proved catastrophically deficient, allowing Sandhagen to execute the backside 50/50 transition and finish the inside heel hook.

His striking has atrophied during his grappling evolution. The counter right hand that once troubled Moreno now arrives less frequently. His 68-inch reach provides theoretical advantages, but he's absorbed 2.43 head strikes per minute recently while landing only 1.75—a negative striking differential that's worsened as he's moved up in weight.

Deiveson Figueiredo's Technical Vulnerabilities

Left Hook Blindness: Figueiredo "has never slipped or blocked a left hook in his life," per technical analysis. Moreno exploited this repeatedly across their four fights, landing counter left hooks that accumulated damage. In their fourth meeting, Moreno caught a kick, parried it across, and jumped in with the left hook that damaged Figueiredo's eye and led to the doctor's stoppage. This defensive gap has persisted throughout his entire UFC run.

Back-Taking Overcommitment: Against Sandhagen, when his opponent deliberately turned his back from guard—a defensive tactic Sandhagen refined against elite wrestlers—Figueiredo immediately jumped over to secure back control. He fell to the floor in compromised position and spent the remainder of round one absorbing ground strikes. He reads deliberate back exposure as vulnerability rather than recognizing it as a defensive technique.

Submission Position Over Control: Figueiredo holds submission attempts far too long from disadvantageous positions. Against Moreno in their fourth fight, he held guillotine chokes from half guard and closed guard for extended periods rather than working to improve position or land strikes. This stubbornness creates opportunities for opponents to escape, reverse, or accumulate control time while he refuses to abandon failed attempts.

Montel Jackson's Breakdown

Jackson brings a five-fight win streak into this bout, though his most recent performance against Daniel Marcos raised questions about his offensive consistency. That unanimous decision win (30-27 across all scorecards) featured conservative wrestling-heavy tactics rather than the explosive striking that earned him 11 knockdowns in UFC bantamweight history—the division record. The 18-second demolition of Da'Mon Blackshear in July 2024 showcased his true finishing ability, but against Marcos he threw combinations sparingly and relied on positional control.

His 75.5-inch reach creates massive problems for shorter opponents. Jackson lands 2.28 head strikes per minute while absorbing only 0.42—a 5-to-1 ratio that's nearly unprecedented in the division. His jab-to-combination sequences establish distance before he explodes with power shots. Against Rani Yahya, he identified Yahya's awkward inside low kick-to-jab combination, recognized it was thrown from ineffective range, and countered for the knockout.

Jackson's wrestling credentials are elite—56.2% takedown accuracy (division record) and 3.20 takedowns per fight. Against Marcos, he immediately established grappling as his primary weapon, securing early takedowns and pursuing a late d'arce choke that nearly finished the fight. His chain wrestling sequences—shooting single legs immediately after initial takedown attempts are defended—force opponents into defensive shells.

But Jackson's recent inactivity is concerning. He fought just once in the 24 months before the Marcos bout, and that fight lasted 18 seconds. Against Marcos, he struggled to find offensive rhythm, threw minimal combinations, and allowed rounds to become competitive through low output. His striking volume inconsistency when not pursuing finishes could allow durable opponents to hang around.

Montel Jackson's Technical Vulnerabilities

Takedown Defense Gaps: Jackson's 47.83% takedown defense ratio is exploitable. Against JP Buys, he absorbed multiple takedowns despite his offensive wrestling prowess. Brett Johns outwrestled him to a unanimous decision loss in 2020, exposing his vulnerability to opponents who can match his grappling intensity. When forced to defend rather than initiate wrestling exchanges, Jackson's defensive technique shows gaps.

Conservative Offensive Output: The Marcos fight revealed Jackson's tendency toward safety-first approaches against technical opponents. "There wasn't a ton of offence on either side over the first two rounds," and Jackson "finally started throwing his combinations, but then went in on the clinch playing it safe." This predictability allowed Marcos to survive and keep rounds competitive despite being outclassed athletically.

Pressure Wrestling Vulnerability: When opponents bring relentless forward pressure with wrestling threats, Jackson struggles to establish his preferred range. Against Ricky Simon in 2018, Simon's grappling-heavy approach neutralized Jackson's striking, leading to a unanimous decision loss. Jackson's game functions optimally when he controls distance and initiates wrestling exchanges, but aggressive grapplers who force him to defend can disrupt his rhythm.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This matchup pits Figueiredo's compromised technical game against Jackson's physical advantages and defensive striking. Jackson's 75.5-inch reach versus Figueiredo's 68 inches creates a 7.5-inch differential that favors Jackson's jab-heavy approach. Figueiredo's recent struggles with left hooks align perfectly with Jackson's counter-striking tendencies—Jackson can parry Figueiredo's right hands and counter with the left hook that's plagued Figueiredo throughout his career.

Figueiredo's punch-to-wrestling transitions that worked against Vera face a different test against Jackson's elite takedown defense (69% stuffed per Figueiredo's stats). When Figueiredo throws combinations and shoots, Jackson's chain wrestling defense and ability to sprawl into advantageous positions could reverse the exchanges. Jackson's 56.2% takedown accuracy suggests that if scrambles occur, he's more likely to end up on top.

The grappling exchanges favor Jackson significantly. Figueiredo's 50/50 leg entanglement deficiencies won't come into play unless Jackson pursues them (unlikely given his striking-first approach), but Figueiredo's tendency to hold submissions from bad positions creates opportunities. If Figueiredo secures takedowns and immediately hunts guillotines from guard, Jackson can use proper defensive technique, escape, and accumulate top control time while Figueiredo stubbornly refuses to abandon failed attempts.

Figueiredo's body shot accumulation that slowed Vera could be effective if he can close distance, but Jackson's defensive striking metrics (absorbing only 0.42 head strikes and 0.39 body strikes per minute) suggest he's exceptional at preventing opponents from landing clean shots. Jackson's distance management with his reach advantage should keep Figueiredo at the end of his punches where body work is difficult to land.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early Rounds (1-2): Jackson establishes his jab immediately, using his reach to keep Figueiredo at distance. Figueiredo attempts his punch-to-wrestling transitions, but Jackson's sprawl and chain wrestling defense stuff the attempts. Jackson lands counter left hooks when Figueiredo throws his right hand, exploiting the defensive blindness that's plagued Figueiredo throughout his career. Figueiredo's body kicks—effective against Vera—struggle to land as Jackson's footwork keeps him out of range.

Mid-Fight Adjustments (Round 2-3): Figueiredo recognizes his takedowns aren't working and increases striking volume, but his negative striking differential (absorbing more than he lands) begins accumulating damage. Jackson's knockdown power (1.72 knockdowns per fight recently) becomes a factor as Figueiredo's compromised defensive striking leaves him vulnerable to power shots. If Figueiredo secures a takedown, he immediately hunts submissions rather than establishing control, allowing Jackson to defend properly and reverse position.

Championship Rounds (If Applicable): This is a three-round fight, but if it extends to round three, Jackson's superior recent form (100% win percentage in last five) and cardio advantages become pronounced. Figueiredo's difficult weight cuts and recent losses suggest diminished durability. Jackson's ability to maintain output (6.57 strikes landed per minute recently) while Figueiredo's has declined (3.24 recently) creates a widening gap as the fight progresses.

Analysis and Key Points

• Reach Disparity: Jackson's 7.5-inch reach advantage allows him to establish his jab and keep Figueiredo at distance where his body work and wrestling entries are neutralized
• Left Hook Vulnerability: Figueiredo's career-long inability to defend left hooks plays directly into Jackson's counter-striking arsenal
• Recent Form Collapse: Figueiredo has lost 3 of his last 4, including a catastrophic submission loss that exposed fundamental grappling gaps
• Wrestling Reversal: Jackson's 56.2% takedown accuracy versus Figueiredo's declining takedown success (1.53 per fight recently) suggests scrambles favor Jackson
• Striking Differential: Jackson lands 2.28 head strikes/minute while absorbing 0.42; Figueiredo lands 1.75 while absorbing 2.18—a massive defensive gap
• Knockdown Threat: Jackson's 11 career knockdowns (division record) versus Figueiredo's compromised chin after recent KO/TKO losses creates finish potential
• Recent KO/TKO Warning: Figueiredo was finished by Sandhagen via heel hook in May 2025 and by doctor's stoppage against Moreno in January 2023—his durability is compromised

Understanding the Prediction

The model's confidence in Jackson stems from multiple statistical advantages that compound into overwhelming favoritism:

• Odds decreased the prediction score by 12 points—Jackson's -295 line reflects massive betting market confidence
• Reach decreased the score by 4 points—Jackson's 7.5-inch advantage is substantial at bantamweight
• Significant Striking Impact Differential decreased by 2 points—Jackson's +17.82 versus Figueiredo's -10.26 shows defensive superiority
• Striking Defense Percentage decreased by 2 points—Jackson's 62.09% versus Figueiredo's 49.07% is a massive gap
• Recent Significant Striking Impact Differential decreased by 1 point—Jackson's recent +20.58 versus Figueiredo's -7.08 shows widening performance gap
• Win Streak Difference decreased by 1 point—Jackson's five-fight streak versus Figueiredo's 1-3 recent record
• Recent Win Percentage decreased by 1 point—Jackson's 100% versus Figueiredo's 33% in recent fights

The model sees a fighter (Jackson) who's hitting his athletic prime with elite defensive metrics facing a fighter (Figueiredo) whose technical evolution has stalled and whose recent performances show declining durability. Every statistical category favors Jackson, and the betting odds reflect consensus that this is a significant mismatch.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a mixed record with Figueiredo, going 2-4 in predictions involving him. Most concerning: the model correctly predicted Sandhagen (0.78 confidence) and Petr Yan (0.71 confidence) to defeat Figueiredo, and both won decisively. The model incorrectly favored Figueiredo against Moreno in their fourth fight (0.74 confidence), but Moreno won via doctor's stoppage—suggesting the model underestimated Figueiredo's declining durability.

For Jackson, the model is 4-0 in predictions, including correct calls on his wins over Daniel Marcos (0.65), Da'Mon Blackshear (0.58), Rani Yahya (0.18), and Julio Arce (0.35). The model has consistently identified Jackson's advantages even when betting odds were closer, suggesting strong pattern recognition for his skillset.

The model's perfect record on Jackson and its accurate identification of Figueiredo's recent decline increases confidence in this prediction. When the model sees this level of statistical separation (28 confidence score for Jackson), it's identifying a fighter who holds advantages across multiple dimensions.

Conclusion

Jackson's reach advantage, elite defensive striking, and superior recent form create a nightmare matchup for Figueiredo's compromised technical game. Figueiredo's inability to defend left hooks, his tendency to hold submissions from bad positions, and his recent losses to technical strikers all point toward Jackson's counter-striking finding a home early and often. The wrestling exchanges favor Jackson's chain defense and superior accuracy, while the striking exchanges favor Jackson's massive reach advantage and defensive metrics. Figueiredo needs to land his power right hand early or secure takedowns that lead to immediate submissions—both low-percentage outcomes against Jackson's defensive toolkit. WolfTicketsAI sees Jackson controlling distance, landing counter left hooks, and either finishing Figueiredo late or cruising to a clear decision victory. The model's 28 confidence score reflects a fighter hitting his prime against a former champion whose technical gaps have been brutally exposed in recent defeats.