Analysis: Charles Oliveira vs Mateusz Gamrot

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Charles Oliveira to Win

Score: 1
Odds:
Charles Oliveira: -106
Mateusz Gamrot: -120

Charles Oliveira's Breakdown

Oliveira enters this fight in a precarious position after getting knocked out by Ilia Topuria in his last outing. That June 2025 loss exposed a fundamental problem: at 35 years old, "Do Bronx" stands too tall and doesn't move his head enough against patient, precise boxers. Topuria opened a cut over Oliveira's eye early, then landed a right-left combination that toppled him at 2:27 of Round 1. Before that, Oliveira had bounced back with a dominant win over Michael Chandler at UFC 309, where he controlled four rounds with his grappling before surviving a wild fifth-round rally.

Oliveira's signature techniques remain lethal. His jumping knee-to-clinch-to-takedown sequence has been a staple since his Beneil Dariush knockout, where he landed a leaping knee followed by devastating elbows from mount. Against Chandler, he showcased his rear-naked choke setup from back control, nearly finishing it in Round 3 after landing 12-6 elbows. His guillotine choke from standing caught David Teymur in Round 2 after Oliveira landed a stiff jab, and he used the same technique to submit Dustin Poirier in Round 3 after wearing him down with body shots.

His distance management with oblique kicks and teeps has evolved significantly. Against Arman Tsarukyan, Oliveira used cut kicks to disrupt rhythm, targeting the standing leg when opponents stepped up. His unconventional guard work includes the "hand on heart" grip to control wrists and regain position, plus creative guillotine setups using free-hanging support hands that confuse defensive reactions.

Charles Oliveira's Technical Vulnerabilities

Oliveira's defensive striking remains his Achilles heel. He's been knocked down five times in his UFC career and finished in eight of ten losses. Against Topuria, he marched forward with pressure but didn't move his head enough for an elite fighter, getting caught with Spanish punches that made him wilt immediately. His tendency to stand tall and stationary leaves him vulnerable to patient boxers—there's a difference between luring brawl-happy fighters like Chandler and Gaethje into exchanges versus facing precise counter-strikers.

His susceptibility to power punches was evident when Chandler landed a furious right hand to the eye in Round 5, nearly finishing the fight with a huge combination. Oliveira also struggles with early cuts that compound throughout fights—Topuria's eyebrow cut in the opening minutes became a significant factor. When hurt, Oliveira's willingness to engage in exchanges creates dangerous moments, as he's not a fighter who knows how to avoid fighting fire with fire 45 fights into his pro career.

Mateusz Gamrot's Breakdown

Gamrot brings relentless wrestling pressure and elite cardio to every fight. His head-outside single leg takedown is his bread and butter, specifically designed to avoid counter knees from dangerous strikers. Against Ludovit Klein in May 2025, Gamrot landed six takedowns despite Klein's 95.2% takedown defense rate—the best among active lightweights. He secured a high-crotch takedown with 90 seconds left in Round 3, sealing a dominant 30-27 unanimous decision.

His chain wrestling sequences are exhausting for opponents. When Dan Hooker stuffed his initial attempts, Gamrot immediately transitioned to secondary and tertiary attacks, never remaining static. Against Rafael Dos Anjos, he showcased a single-leg to inside trip sequence where he steps deep behind the opponent's leg in a "run the pipe" motion, using the cage as leverage. His positional control from half-guard is suffocating—he kept Klein trapped for three minutes in Round 2, landing quality ground and pound.

Gamrot's striking has evolved beyond basic 1-2 combinations. Against Hooker, he threw extended four-punch sequences where the third or fourth shots frequently found their mark. His stance-switching to set up takedowns creates unpredictable entry angles, particularly his left straight/overhand from southpaw while stepping outside the opponent's lead foot, which lines up both the punch and his takedown entry.

Mateusz Gamrot's Technical Vulnerabilities

Gamrot's striking defense shows significant gaps. He absorbs 3.22 significant strikes per minute—nearly equal to what he lands (3.23). Against Klein, he was hurt early by a punch and later dropped momentarily by a knee in Round 3. His susceptibility to counter-striking was exposed when Hooker repeatedly threatened guillotines off Gamrot's head-outside single leg entries, forcing defensive gator rolls to escape.

His ground control without finishing is a persistent issue. Despite dominant positions against Klein, the finish didn't materialize. He struggles to maintain top position against defensively savvy opponents—Hooker repeatedly returned to his feet after being taken down. This pattern suggests technical gaps in transitional control sequences and an inability to chain positions together effectively.

Gamrot's predictable striking patterns make him readable. He relies almost exclusively on 1-2 combinations with limited variety, rarely throwing kicks with purpose. Against Dariush, his limited combinations became predictable, and Dariush's left hand repeatedly found its mark, dropping Gamrot near the end of Round 3. His natural orthodox reset after exchanges creates a consistent timing vulnerability where opponents can target his right side with body kicks.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This fight presents a fascinating clash between Oliveira's submission wizardry and Gamrot's relentless wrestling. Gamrot's head-outside single leg creates vulnerability to Oliveira's guillotine expertise—the same technique that finished Dustin Poirier and David Teymur. When Gamrot shoots with his head outside, Oliveira can punch through to position his elbow on Gamrot's throat, threatening the high-risk front guillotine.

Oliveira's unconventional guard work could exploit Gamrot's struggles to maintain top position. The "hand on heart" grip and creative overhook sequences from guard that frustrated Tsarukyan would give Gamrot problems, as he tends to allow scrambles when opponents work defensively from bottom. Oliveira's 12-6 elbows from back control would be devastating if he catches Gamrot's back during a scramble—something Gamrot exposed against Hooker.

However, Gamrot's relentless takedown chains could wear down Oliveira's 35-year-old body. The Polish fighter averages 5.81 recent takedowns per fight with 16.21 attempts, and his cardio allows him to maintain this pace for 15 minutes. Oliveira's recent takedown defense of 73.18% suggests Gamrot will get him down multiple times, though keeping him there is another matter.

Oliveira's body kick game could exploit Gamrot's tendency to leave his midsection exposed when advancing. The cut kicks that disrupted Tsarukyan's rhythm would target Gamrot's body as he shoots, potentially slowing his wrestling output. But Gamrot's improved striking combinations mean Oliveira can't just stand and trade—those extended four-punch sequences could catch Oliveira's stationary head.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early rounds (1-2): Gamrot will immediately pressure with takedown attempts, looking to establish his wrestling dominance. Oliveira's best bet is using front kicks and body shots to keep distance while threatening guillotines on Gamrot's entries. If Gamrot secures early takedowns, Oliveira's guard work and scrambling ability will be tested. Expect Gamrot to control position but struggle to land significant damage, with Oliveira hunting submissions from bottom.

Mid-fight adjustments (3): This is where Oliveira's experience and Gamrot's cardio clash. If Gamrot hasn't secured dominant rounds, he'll increase his takedown volume, potentially becoming more predictable. Oliveira will look to time a big knee or elbow as Gamrot shoots, similar to how he caught Dariush. The fighter who makes better tactical adjustments here likely takes control.

Championship rounds (4-5 if applicable): In a three-round fight, this doesn't apply, but if extended, Oliveira's recent cardio issues (getting hurt in Round 5 against Chandler) would be concerning. Gamrot's relentless pace typically overwhelms opponents late, as seen against Tsarukyan where he won Rounds 4-5. However, Oliveira's submission threats never diminish—he finished Gaethje in Round 1 and Poirier in Round 3, showing he can end fights at any moment.

Analysis and Key Points

• Reach advantage: Oliveira's 74-inch reach versus Gamrot's 70 inches gives him a 4-inch edge for keeping distance with jabs and front kicks
• Submission threat disparity: Oliveira averages 2.48 recent submissions per fight compared to Gamrot's 0.14—a massive gap in finishing ability from grappling
• Takedown volume: Gamrot's 16.21 recent takedown attempts per fight will test Oliveira's 73.18% recent takedown defense repeatedly
• Striking defense concern: Oliveira's 39.02% recent striking defense versus Gamrot's 60.24% suggests Oliveira will absorb more damage standing
• Age and durability: At 35, Oliveira's recent KO loss to Topuria raises questions about his chin against Gamrot's improving power
• Recent form: Oliveira is 2-3 in his last five (including the Topuria KO), while Gamrot is 4-1 with his only loss a split decision to Hooker

Understanding the Prediction

The model heavily favors Oliveira based on several key factors:

• Odds increased the prediction score by 4.0—the betting market sees this as a near pick'em, but the model identifies value in Oliveira
• Reach increased the score by 2.0—Oliveira's 4-inch reach advantage provides significant distance control opportunities
• Recent significant striking defense percentage increased by 2.0—despite concerns, Oliveira's defensive metrics still grade favorably
• Recent takedowns attempted per fight decreased by 2.0—Gamrot's high volume of attempts (16.21) is viewed as energy-draining without corresponding control time
• Recent win percentage decreased by 2.0—Oliveira's 33% recent win rate (2-3 in last five) is a significant red flag

The model sees Oliveira's submission threat and reach advantage as decisive factors that outweigh Gamrot's wrestling volume. The striking impact differentials (Oliveira +2.35 recent, Gamrot +15.17 recent) suggest both fighters land hard, but Oliveira's finishing ability from any position gives him more paths to victory.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a mixed record with both fighters. For Oliveira, the model correctly predicted his wins over Chandler (0.69) and Gaethje (0.58), but incorrectly favored Tsarukyan (0.71) and Makhachev (0.34) against him. It also incorrectly predicted Dariush to win (0.30), missing Oliveira's first-round KO. This suggests the model sometimes underestimates Oliveira's finishing ability.

For Gamrot, the model correctly predicted his wins over Klein (0.53), Dos Anjos (0.74), and Turner (0.70), but incorrectly favored him heavily against Hooker (0.73) and Dariush (0.30). It also incorrectly predicted Tsarukyan to beat him (0.76). The model tends to overrate Gamrot's wrestling-heavy approach against elite competition.

Given this history, the model's confidence in Oliveira (1.0) should be viewed cautiously. It may be overcompensating for previously underestimating Oliveira's finishing ability while potentially undervaluing Gamrot's ability to grind out decisions against dangerous submission artists.

Conclusion

Charles Oliveira presents too many finishing threats for Mateusz Gamrot to navigate over 15 minutes. While Gamrot's relentless wrestling will secure takedowns, Oliveira's guard is a minefield of submission attempts—guillotines, triangles, and arm bars that have finished elite competition. Gamrot's head-outside single leg entries play directly into Oliveira's guillotine expertise, the same technique that submitted Poirier and Teymur. Even if Gamrot secures top position, his struggles to maintain control against scrambly opponents mean Oliveira will create opportunities to threaten from bottom or reverse position. The reach advantage allows Oliveira to land body kicks and knees as Gamrot shoots, potentially catching him clean like he did to Dariush. At 35 years old with a recent knockout loss, Oliveira's durability is questionable, but his submission skills never age. Gamrot's improving striking isn't enough to keep this standing, and on the ground, he's entering Oliveira's world. WolfTicketsAI predicts Charles Oliveira finishes Mateusz Gamrot via submission in Round 2.