The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.
Recent Prediction
This prediction includes detailed insights.
Predicted Winner: Jamey-Lyn Horth
Weight Class: Women's Flyweight
Final Confidence: 12.87
Value: +10.0%
Reason: Base confidence between 10 and 13, increased by 10%
Value: -10.0%
Reason: Predicted winner is moving down in weight
Weight Change: Moving down in weight (from Women's Bantamweight to Women's Flyweight)
Weight Change: Staying at usual weight
Score: 13 Odds: Jamey-Lyn Horth: -215 Ivana Petrovic: 164
Horth enters this fight off a split decision loss to Veronica Hardy in her most recent bout. Prior to that, she scored a unanimous decision win over Hailey Cowan. Her striking defense (50.51%) and accuracy (68.38%) are both noticeably higher than Petrovic's. She lands 5.77 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.43. Horth has more UFC experience but will be giving up 4 inches of reach.
Petrovic bounced back from a unanimous decision loss to Luana Carolina by submitting Liang Na in her last fight. She has a very high submission rate (1.7 per fight) and lands 2.83 takedowns per fight at a 50% accuracy rate. However, her striking defense is just 37% and she absorbs slightly more strikes than she lands. The reach advantage could help her long range striking and takedown entries though.
Striking: Horth is the more effective striker, landing at a higher rate with better accuracy and defense. Petrovic needs to utilize her reach to strike at distance.
Grappling: Petrovic's path to victory is likely through grappling given her strong submission game. She must close distance and work takedowns. Horth's 43% takedown defense will be tested.
Recent Form: Horth has lost 1 of her last 2 while Petrovic is 1-1. Neither has great momentum coming in.
Experience: Horth has more UFC bouts but Petrovic's overall MMA record is slightly better at 7-1 vs 6-1.
The model favors Horth and the following factors moved the needle most significantly:
Odds: The -215 line on Horth increased the score by 12 points, implying oddsmakers heavily favor her.
Recent Win Percentage: Horth's 33% recent win rate is higher than Petrovic's and boosted the score by 3.
Striking Defense Percentage: Horth's 50.51% strike defense is much better than Petrovic's 37.11%, increasing the score by 3.
Significant Striking Impact Differential: Horth lands 6.5 more impactful significant strikes per minute than she absorbs, compared to Petrovic absorbing 3.5 more than she lands. This added 2 points.
No prediction history for Jamey-Lyn Horth.
For Ivana Petrovic, the model predicted her to beat Liang Na in April 2024 and was correct. This is a good sign for the model's capabilities but still a limited sample size.
The odds, striking metrics, and recent performance point to Jamey-Lyn Horth having an edge in this matchup. Ivana Petrovic's clearest path is through her grappling, but she'll have to navigate Horth's superior striking to close that distance. With limited prediction history on these fighters, there is some uncertainty. But the data suggests Horth should be favored to get her hand raised.
| Stat | Jamey-Lyn Horth | Ivana Petrovic | Weight Class Average | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Stats | ||||
| Age | 34 | 30 | 31 | |
| Height | 67" | 68" | 65" | |
| Reach | 66" | 70" | 67" | |
| Win Percentage | 85.71% | 87.50% | 76.21% | |
| Wins | 7 | 7 | ||
| Losses | 1 | 2 | ||
| Wins at Weight Class | 0 | 1 | ||
| Losses at Weight Class | 1 | 1 | ||
| Striking Stats | ||||
| Striking Accuracy | 68.38% | 65.44% | 49.58% | |
| Significant Striking Accuracy | 62.30% | 42.96% | 41.99% | |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 5.767 | 6.721 | 5.909 | |
| Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute | 3.967 | 2.190 | 3.905 | |
| Knockdowns per Fight | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.123 | |
| Striking Impact Differential | 13.50% | 8.50% | 6.88% | |
| Significant Striking Impact Differential | 6.50% | -3.50% | 4.86% | |
| Striking Output Differential | -21.00% | 8.00% | 8.54% | |
| Significant Striking Output Differential | -30.00% | -2.00% | 6.23% | |
| Striking Defense to Offense Ratio | 86.13% | 53.37% | 78.39% | |
| Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio | 121.85% | 127.59% | 106.72% | |
| Striking Defense Percentage | 57.77% | 53.24% | 50.19% | |
| Takedown and Submission Stats | ||||
| Submissions per Fight | 0.000 | 1.699 | 0.598 | |
| Takedowns per Fight | 0.500 | 2.832 | 1.460 | |
| Takedowns Attempted per Fight | 2.000 | 5.664 | 3.337 | |
| Takedown Defense | 42.86% | 66.67% | 63.82% | |
| Takedown Accuracy | 25.00% | 50.00% | 37.10% | |
| Head Stats | ||||
| Head Strikes Landed per Minute | 1.767 | 1.624 | 2.477 | |
| Head Strikes Attempted per Minute | 3.600 | 4.305 | 6.667 | |
| Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 2.233 | 0.982 | 2.117 | |
| Body Stats | ||||
| Body Strikes Landed per Minute | 1.667 | 0.491 | 0.890 | |
| Body Strikes Attempted per Minute | 1.967 | 0.680 | 1.248 | |
| Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 1.067 | 0.793 | 0.804 | |
| Leg Stats | ||||
| Leg Strikes Landed per Minute | 0.533 | 0.076 | 0.538 | |
| Leg kicks Attempted per Minute | 0.800 | 0.113 | 0.675 | |
| Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute | 0.233 | 0.680 | 0.558 | |
| Clinch Stats | ||||
| Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute | 1.667 | 0.227 | 0.459 | |
| Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute | 1.933 | 0.529 | 0.634 | |
| Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 0.967 | 0.302 | 0.463 | |
| Date | Weight | Elevation | Red Corner | Blue Corner | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec. 2, 2023 | Women's Flyweight | Veronica Hardy | Jamey-Lyn Horth | Veronica Hardy | |
| April 29, 2023 | Women's Bantamweight | Hailey Cowan | Jamey-Lyn Horth | Jamey-Lyn Horth |
| Date | Weight | Elevation | Red Corner | Blue Corner | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 27, 2024 | Women's Flyweight | Ivana Petrovic | Liang Na | Ivana Petrovic | |
| July 1, 2023 | Women's Flyweight | Ivana Petrovic | Luana Carolina | Luana Carolina |