Analysis: Chad Anheliger vs Cody Gibson

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Cody Gibson to Win

Score: 17 Odds: Chad Anheliger: 162 Cody Gibson: -210

Chad Anheliger's Breakdown

Chad Anheliger is coming off a win over Charalampos Grigoriou by unanimous decision in March 2024, bouncing back after his previous submission loss to Jose Johnson. Anheliger has a 50/50 record in his last 4 UFC fights.

Anheliger has shown solid striking output, landing 5.81 significant strikes per minute and absorbing only 3.78 per minute. His striking differential is +9.8 and significant striking differential is +17.3, indicating he lands more strikes than he absorbs. However, his striking defense is only 45.6% and significant strike defense 54.2%, so there is room for improvement defensively.

Anheliger has decent power, scoring 0.51 knockdowns per fight. He also attempts 2.83 takedowns per fight with a 36% accuracy. So he is dangerous on the feet and has wrestling skills.

Cody Gibson's Breakdown

Cody Gibson last fought in July 2024, submitting Brian Kelleher in the 1st round. However, he lost his 2 previous fights against Miles Johns and Brad Katona by decision.

Gibson has a negative striking differential, landing 4.94 strikes per minute but absorbing 5.53. His significant striking is basically even, landing 3.96 per minute and taking 3.98. With a 48.8% striking defense, he gets hit quite a bit.

Gibson does have a better ground game, with 1.61 takedowns per fight and a 30.8% accuracy. And his last win showed submission skills. But overall, his recent results are concerning with a 33% win rate.

Understanding the Prediction

Odds: The betting odds heavily favor Gibson, decreasing the prediction score for Anheliger by 10 points. The public money is on Gibson.

Reach: Gibson's 71" reach is 7 inches longer than Anheliger's 64" reach. This decreased the score for Anheliger by 3 points, as Gibson will have a sizeable advantage at range.

Recent Win Percentage: Anheliger's recent win percentage of 33% is higher than Gibson's 33%, increasing Anheliger's score by 2 points.

Striking Differentials: Anheliger's striking and significant striking differentials are much better than Gibson's, giving him an edge statistically. This increased his score by 3 points total.

Recent Striking Defense: Anheliger's recent striking defense of 43.4% and significant strike defense of 49.7% both compare unfavorably to Gibson's. This decreased Anheliger's score by 2 points.

Past Model Performance

For Chad Anheliger: - The model correctly predicted his last 2 fights, a loss to Alatengheili and a loss to Jose Johnson. - This increases confidence in the model's prediction for him.

For Cody Gibson:
- The model has correctly predicted Gibson's last 3 fights, a win over Brian Kelleher and losses to Miles Johns and Brad Katona. - Gibson's recent losses aligned with the model's expectations, boosting faith in this prediction.

Conclusion

While Cody Gibson is a sizeable betting favorite with his longer reach and submission win last time out, there are several factors pointing to Chad Anheliger as a live underdog.

Anheliger has better striking metrics, landing more volume and doing much more damage than Gibson historically. The model also has a good track record predicting both fighters' outcomes.

Gibson's recent losses and lower striking defense are concerning if this stays standing. Anheliger may have a path to victory if he can keep it on the feet and make use of his striking advantage.

Still, with Gibson's grappling skills, reach advantage, and betting odds, WolfTickets leans towards Gibson getting the win, likely by decision if he can control range or get takedowns.