Alexander Hernandez vs. Diego Ferreira - UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva Results & AI Breakdown

Winner: Alexander Hernandez by KO/TKO

Fight Info:
Location: San Antonio, Texas, USA
Elevation: 198.00m
Weight Class: Lightweight
Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org…

The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.

The predictions below are shown in dark grey if they were correct, incorxrect predictions are shown in red.
Predictions
W = WTAI Model O = Profit Model P = Plain Model EV = Expected Value
Fighter
Confidence
EV
Odds
W
O
P
Alexander Hernandez
8
15
12.6
-130
Diego Ferreira
3
+110

Fighter Comparison Chart

This radar chart shows each fighter's strengths across key fighting dimensions. Each dimension is scored 0-100 based on their percentile ranking within the Lightweight weight class.

Alexander Hernandez
Diego Ferreira
Lightweight Average (50th percentile)

Weighted Scoring Report

Weighted Score for WTAI Prediction

Predicted Winner: Alexander Hernandez

Weight Class: Lightweight

Final Confidence: 5.6

Confidence Adjustments

Value: -30.0%

Reason: Base confidence < 10, decreased by 30%

Fighter History & Outcomes

Alexander Hernandez

Weight Change: Staying at usual weight

Fight History:

  • August 16, 2025: Alexander Hernandez won against Chase Hooper. The fight ended in round 1 at 4:58. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • March 15, 2025: Alexander Hernandez won against Kurt Holobaugh. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 27 - 30. 28 - 29. 28 - 29.
  • October 5, 2024: Alexander Hernandez won against Austin Hubbard. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a split decision. Additional details: 30 - 27. 28 - 29. 28 - 29.
  • April 6, 2024: Alexander Hernandez lost against Damon Jackson. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a split decision. Additional details: 30 - 27. 28 - 29. 28 - 29.
  • October 7, 2023: Alexander Hernandez lost against Bill Algeo. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 27 - 30. 27 - 30. 27 - 30.
  • February 18, 2023: Alexander Hernandez won against Jim Miller. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 28 - 29. 27 - 30. 27 - 30.
  • December 10, 2022: Alexander Hernandez lost against Billy Quarantillo. The fight ended in round 2 at 4:30. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • February 12, 2022: Alexander Hernandez lost against Renato Moicano. The fight ended in round 2 at 1:23. Method of victory: Submission.
  • October 2, 2021: Alexander Hernandez won against Mike Breeden. The fight ended in round 1 at 1:20. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • February 27, 2021: Alexander Hernandez lost against Thiago Moises. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 27 - 30. 27 - 30. 28 - 29.
  • October 31, 2020: Alexander Hernandez won against Chris Gruetzemacher. The fight ended in round 1 at 1:46. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • May 13, 2020: Alexander Hernandez lost against Drew Dober. The fight ended in round 2 at 4:25. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • July 20, 2019: Alexander Hernandez won against Francisco Trinaldo. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 27 - 30. 27 - 30. 28 - 29.
  • January 19, 2019: Alexander Hernandez lost against Donald Cerrone. The fight ended in round 2 at 3:43. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • July 28, 2018: Alexander Hernandez won against Olivier Aubin-Mercier. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 27 - 30. 28 - 29. 28 - 29.
  • March 3, 2018: Alexander Hernandez won against Beneil Dariush. The fight ended in round 1 at 0:42. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
Diego Ferreira

Weight Change: Staying at usual weight

Fight History:

  • January 18, 2025: Diego Ferreira lost against Grant Dawson. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 27 - 30. 27 - 30. 27 - 30.
  • May 11, 2024: Diego Ferreira won against Mateusz Rebecki. The fight ended in round 3 at 4:51. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • May 20, 2023: Diego Ferreira won against Michael Johnson. The fight ended in round 2 at 1:50. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • December 18, 2021: Diego Ferreira lost against Mateusz Gamrot. The fight ended in round 2 at 3:26. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • May 8, 2021: Diego Ferreira lost against Gregor Gillespie. The fight ended in round 2 at 4:51. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • February 6, 2021: Diego Ferreira lost against Beneil Dariush. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a split decision. Additional details: 28 - 29. 29 - 28. 28 - 29.
  • January 18, 2020: Diego Ferreira won against Anthony Pettis. The fight ended in round 2 at 1:46. Method of victory: Submission.
  • September 7, 2019: Diego Ferreira won against Mairbek Taisumov. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 28 - 29. 27 - 29. 27 - 29.
  • February 23, 2019: Diego Ferreira won against Rustam Khabilov. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 27 - 30. 27 - 30. 28 - 29.
  • December 8, 2018: Diego Ferreira won against Kyle Nelson. The fight ended in round 2 at 1:23. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • February 18, 2018: Diego Ferreira won against Jared Gordon. The fight ended in round 1 at 1:58. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • January 30, 2016: Diego Ferreira won against Olivier Aubin-Mercier. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 28 - 29. 28 - 29. 27 - 30.
  • April 4, 2015: Diego Ferreira lost against Dustin Poirier. The fight ended in round 1 at 3:45. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • October 25, 2014: Diego Ferreira lost against Beneil Dariush. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 27 - 30. 27 - 30. 27 - 30.
  • August 30, 2014: Diego Ferreira won against Ramsey Nijem. The fight ended in round 2 at 1:53. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • June 28, 2014: Diego Ferreira won against Colton Smith. The fight ended in round 1 at 0:38. Method of victory: Submission.

Fight Analysis

Analysis: Alexander Hernandez vs Diego Ferreira

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Alexander Hernandez to Win

Score: 8
Odds:
Alexander Hernandez: -130
Diego Ferreira: +110

Alexander Hernandez's Breakdown

Hernandez brings explosive first-round power that's been his calling card throughout his UFC run. Against Chase Hooper, he displayed remarkable patience before landing a devastating right-hand counter with just seconds left in the first round. His signature technique remains the stance-switching blitz - moving from orthodox to southpaw to create new angles for his overhand right combinations. Against Kurt Holobaugh, Hernandez showed evolution by using feints before his explosive entries, then adapting mid-fight when Holobaugh timed his exits with counter hooks.

The key development in Hernandez's recent performances is his improved counter-striking. Against Holobaugh, when his initial blitzing approach was being countered, he shifted to a more measured approach using feints to draw his opponent forward before countering with beautifully timed combinations. His jab-cross-leg kick sequence has become more refined, and he's added effective dirty boxing in the clinch with short uppercuts and hooks.

However, Hernandez still struggles with energy management. Against Billy Quarantillo, he dominated the first round with technical striking and devastating elbows that cut Quarantillo's face open, but his output diminished significantly as the fight progressed, allowing Quarantillo to take control and eventually finish him in the second round.

Alexander Hernandez's Technical Vulnerabilities

Hernandez's most glaring weakness remains his defensive exits after offensive bursts. He consistently pulls straight back with his chin exposed, creating windows for counter hooks and straights. Against Holobaugh, this pattern was exploited multiple times in the second round when Holobaugh caught him during these linear retreats.

His stance transitions also present vulnerability windows. When switching from orthodox to southpaw, Hernandez momentarily squares his hips, compromising his defense. Renato Moicano capitalized on this perfectly, timing a right uppercut as Hernandez lingered after throwing his jab, dropping him and securing a rear-naked choke finish.

Energy management continues to plague Hernandez's technical execution. His explosive style works brilliantly in round one, but his technique deteriorates significantly when his cardio is tested, reverting to single, telegraphed shots instead of his usual crisp combinations.

Diego Ferreira's Breakdown

Ferreira operates as a pressure-oriented grappler with developing counter-striking skills. His most effective weapon is his ability to achieve dominant ground positions through persistent takedown attempts, then maintain heavy hip pressure and disciplined weight distribution. Against Michael Johnson, he showed his finishing power by catching Johnson with a perfectly timed jab-overhand combination that led to a knockout.

His grappling credentials shine when he secures top position. Ferreira's Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt allows him to transition seamlessly between control positions and submission attempts. Against Anthony Pettis, he demonstrated this by securing a rear-naked choke in the second round after controlling the pace through strategic takedowns.

Ferreira's counter-striking has evolved significantly, moving from single-shot counters to 3-4 punch combinations when opponents initiate exchanges. Against Mateusz Rebecki, he showed patience in the early rounds before exploding with a series of punches that led to a third-round knockout, demonstrating his ability to time his offensive bursts effectively.

Diego Ferreira's Technical Vulnerabilities

Ferreira's defensive wrestling against pressure fighters remains problematic. Against Grant Dawson, his anticipatory footwork failed to prevent initial takedown entries, and he relied too heavily on upper body strength rather than proper defensive angles. This made him susceptible to being driven to the fence and eventually taken down through persistence.

His technical execution deteriorates significantly under sustained pressure. Against Dawson, Ferreira's previously crisp counter combinations became single, telegraphed shots as the fight progressed. His defensive wrestling fundamentals eroded in the final round, with his stance becoming upright and hands dropping during wrestling exchanges.

Energy management issues compound these problems. Ferreira expends excessive energy defending takedowns, leaving him vulnerable in later rounds when his counter-striking effectiveness diminishes and his defensive positioning becomes compromised.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This matchup presents a fascinating clash between Hernandez's explosive entries and Ferreira's counter-striking patience. Hernandez's signature stance-switching blitzes could be problematic for Ferreira, who relies on reading opponents' patterns to time his counters. However, Ferreira's experience against aggressive strikers like Michael Johnson suggests he can weather early storms.

Ferreira's takedown attempts could exploit Hernandez's tendency to overextend on his power shots. When Hernandez loads up on his overhand right, he often leaves himself off-balance and vulnerable to level changes. Ferreira's persistent wrestling pressure could force Hernandez into the later rounds where his technical execution historically deteriorates.

The key tactical battle will be whether Ferreira can survive Hernandez's explosive first-round output. Against fighters like Quarantillo, Hernandez has shown devastating early power but fades significantly. Ferreira's counter-striking patience and grappling pressure could be perfectly suited to capitalize on Hernandez's energy expenditure patterns.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early rounds favor Hernandez's explosive striking, but Ferreira's defensive experience against power punchers gives him survival tools. Hernandez's stance-switching entries will test Ferreira's counter-timing, while Ferreira's takedown attempts will challenge Hernandez's defensive wrestling.

Mid-fight adjustments become crucial as Hernandez's energy management issues typically surface. Ferreira's ability to maintain consistent pressure through wrestling could force Hernandez into defensive positions where his technical vulnerabilities become more pronounced.

Championship rounds heavily favor Ferreira if the fight reaches that point. Hernandez's historical pattern of technical deterioration in later rounds, combined with Ferreira's ability to maintain pressure, suggests a significant advantage for the Brazilian veteran.

Analysis and Key Points

Hernandez's explosive first round presents the biggest threat to Ferreira, who must survive the early storm • Ferreira's counter-striking patience could perfectly time Hernandez's predictable stance transitions
Wrestling pressure from Ferreira exploits Hernandez's tendency to overextend on power shots • Energy management heavily favors Ferreira in later rounds based on both fighters' historical patterns • Defensive vulnerabilities exist for both fighters - Hernandez's linear exits and Ferreira's takedown defense

Understanding the Prediction

The model's confidence stems from several key statistical advantages. Odds provided the largest boost (+5.0), reflecting Hernandez as the betting favorite. TrueSkill ratings (+4.0) and Recent Win Percentage (+2.0) show Hernandez's superior recent form with three straight wins compared to Ferreira's 2-3 record in his last five. Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight (+1.0) and Striking Defense Percentage (+1.0) suggest Hernandez's improved defensive metrics, while Recent Striking Impact Differential (+1.0) indicates his power advantage in recent performances.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI's track record with these fighters shows mixed results. For Hernandez, the model correctly predicted his wins over Kurt Holobaugh and his recent knockout of Chase Hooper, but missed on the Damon Jackson fight. With Ferreira, the model correctly predicted his losses to Grant Dawson but was wrong about his knockout victories over both Mateusz Rebecki and Michael Johnson, suggesting it may underestimate his finishing ability.

Conclusion

Hernandez's explosive first-round power and improved technical approach give him the tools to finish Ferreira early, while his recent win streak demonstrates momentum that Ferreira currently lacks. WolfTicketsAI backs Hernandez to capitalize on his explosive entries before Ferreira's grappling pressure can take effect.

Stat Breakdown

Stat Alexander Hernandez Diego Ferreira
Main Stats
Age 32 40
Height 69" 69"
Reach 72" 74"
Win Percentage 68.00% 76.00%
Wins 18 19
Losses 8 7
Wins at Weight Class 9 10
Losses at Weight Class 4 6
Striking Stats
Striking Accuracy 44.79% 45.87%
Significant Striking Accuracy 40.96% 40.64%
Strikes Landed Per Minute 5.234 6.172
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute 4.356 4.816
Knockdowns per Fight 0.461 0.288
Striking Impact Differential -3.63% 12.63%
Significant Striking Impact Differential -2.50% 13.25%
Striking Output Differential -4.88% 38.31%
Significant Striking Output Differential -4.06% 39.56%
Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 125.59% 75.44%
Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 147.67% 90.17%
Striking Defense Percentage 58.30% 55.66%
Takedown and Submission Stats
Submissions per Fight 0.092 0.576
Takedowns per Fight 1.198 0.863
Takedowns Attempted per Fight 3.317 2.878
Takedown Defense 36.67% 72.73%
Takedown Accuracy 36.11% 30.00%
Head Stats
Head Strikes Landed per Minute 2.310 3.454
Head Strikes Attempted per Minute 7.489 9.645
Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute 2.672 2.501
Body Stats
Body Strikes Landed per Minute 1.425 1.011
Body Strikes Attempted per Minute 2.285 1.785
Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute 1.137 0.652
Leg Stats
Leg Strikes Landed per Minute 0.621 0.352
Leg kicks Attempted per Minute 0.860 0.422
Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute 0.793 0.307
Clinch Stats
Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute 0.375 0.320
Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute 0.559 0.461
Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.516 0.269
Alexander Hernandez History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
Aug. 16, 2025 Lightweight Chase Hooper Alexander Hernandez Alexander Hernandez
March 15, 2025 Lightweight Alexander Hernandez Kurt Holobaugh Alexander Hernandez
Oct. 5, 2024 Lightweight Austin Hubbard Alexander Hernandez Alexander Hernandez
April 6, 2024 Featherweight Alexander Hernandez Damon Jackson Damon Jackson
Oct. 7, 2023 Featherweight Alexander Hernandez Bill Algeo Bill Algeo
Feb. 18, 2023 Lightweight Jim Miller Alexander Hernandez Alexander Hernandez
Dec. 10, 2022 Featherweight Billy Quarantillo Alexander Hernandez Billy Quarantillo
Feb. 12, 2022 Lightweight Alexander Hernandez Renato Moicano Renato Moicano
Oct. 2, 2021 Lightweight Alexander Hernandez Mike Breeden Alexander Hernandez
Feb. 27, 2021 Lightweight Alexander Hernandez Thiago Moises Thiago Moises
Oct. 31, 2020 Lightweight Chris Gruetzemacher Alexander Hernandez Alexander Hernandez
May 13, 2020 Lightweight Alexander Hernandez Drew Dober Drew Dober
July 20, 2019 Lightweight Alexander Hernandez Francisco Trinaldo Alexander Hernandez
Jan. 19, 2019 Lightweight Alexander Hernandez Donald Cerrone Donald Cerrone
July 28, 2018 Lightweight Alexander Hernandez Olivier Aubin-Mercier Alexander Hernandez
March 3, 2018 Lightweight Beneil Dariush Alexander Hernandez Alexander Hernandez
Diego Ferreira History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
Jan. 18, 2025 Lightweight Grant Dawson Diego Ferreira Grant Dawson
May 11, 2024 Lightweight Diego Ferreira Mateusz Rebecki Diego Ferreira
May 20, 2023 Lightweight Diego Ferreira Michael Johnson Diego Ferreira
Dec. 18, 2021 Lightweight Diego Ferreira Mateusz Gamrot Mateusz Gamrot
May 8, 2021 Lightweight Diego Ferreira Gregor Gillespie Gregor Gillespie
Feb. 6, 2021 Lightweight Diego Ferreira Beneil Dariush Beneil Dariush
Jan. 18, 2020 Lightweight Anthony Pettis Diego Ferreira Diego Ferreira
Sept. 7, 2019 Lightweight Mairbek Taisumov Diego Ferreira Diego Ferreira
Feb. 23, 2019 Lightweight Rustam Khabilov Diego Ferreira Diego Ferreira
Dec. 8, 2018 Lightweight Diego Ferreira Kyle Nelson Diego Ferreira
Feb. 18, 2018 Lightweight Jared Gordon Diego Ferreira Diego Ferreira
Jan. 30, 2016 Lightweight Olivier Aubin-Mercier Diego Ferreira Diego Ferreira
April 4, 2015 Lightweight Dustin Poirier Diego Ferreira Dustin Poirier
Oct. 25, 2014 Lightweight Diego Ferreira Beneil Dariush Beneil Dariush
Aug. 30, 2014 Lightweight Ramsey Nijem Diego Ferreira Diego Ferreira
June 28, 2014 Lightweight Colton Smith Diego Ferreira Diego Ferreira