Analysis: Hyder Amil vs William Gomis

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Hyder Amil to Win

Score: 0
Odds:
Hyder Amil: 176
William Gomis: -230

Hyder Amil's Breakdown

Amil brings a perfect 10-0 record with a dangerous combination of crisp striking and opportunistic grappling. Against JeongYeong Lee in July, he dominated with relentless pressure, securing a first-round KO. His southpaw stance has been a nightmare for opponents, as seen in his February bout with Fernie Garcia where he deployed a diverse arsenal of step-up low kicks and high kicks to set up his powerful punches.

What makes Amil dangerous is his ability to read opponents and adjust mid-fight. Against Garcia, he used kicks to break his opponent's balance before following up with precise punches that led to the TKO. His takedown defense has been solid, but he's not afraid to go to the ground, attempting 5.4 takedowns per fight while landing at a 33% clip.

Amil's striking accuracy (58%) and output (18.2 strikes landed per minute) are exceptional for a fighter with just two UFC appearances. His significant striking impact differential of +45.5 shows he hits harder and more effectively than opponents.

William Gomis's Breakdown

Gomis brings a 14-2 record but has shown inconsistency despite his four UFC wins. His fighting style can be best described as low-output and conservative. Against Joanderson Brito in September, he barely escaped with a split decision despite being pressured throughout much of the fight.

His most convincing win came against Yanis Ghemmouri, but even that victory came under controversial circumstances with a TKO via groin strike. Against Francis Marshall, Gomis relied on his defensive footwork and takedown defense to edge out another split decision.

Gomis lands only 3.9 strikes per minute compared to Amil's 18.2, showing a dramatic difference in output. While he boasts good takedown defense (42%), his wrestling strategy often prioritizes control over damage, as seen in his win over Jarno Errens where he secured takedowns but failed to capitalize with ground strikes.

Analysis and Key Points

• Striking Differential: Amil's significant striking impact differential (+45.5) dwarfs Gomis's (+15.5), suggesting Amil lands harder, cleaner shots.
• Output Gap: Amil throws nearly 5x more strikes per minute (18.2 vs. 3.9) – Gomis's passive approach could cost him against Amil's aggression.
• Fighting Style Clash: Gomis's tendency to stay at range with occasional kicks plays into Amil's game, who excels at breaking opponents' stances with his own kicking game before following with punches.
• Takedown Factor: Amil attempts 5.4 takedowns per fight compared to Gomis's 2.1, suggesting a more aggressive wrestling approach that could neutralize Gomis's defensive style.
• Finishing Ability: Amil has finished both UFC opponents (both by KO/TKO) while Gomis has gone to decision in 3 of 4 UFC fights.

Understanding the Prediction

WolfTicketsAI's prediction favors Amil based on several key factors: - Significant Striking Impact Differential increased the prediction score by 10.0 points, highlighting Amil's clear advantage in landing effective strikes - Recent Takedowns Attempted increased the score by 2.0, showing Amil's wrestling could be a key factor - Striking Defense Percentage increased the score by 2.0, as Amil's 64% defense rate exceeds Gomis's 61% - Odds decreased the score by 6.0, acknowledging that bookmakers favor Gomis as the favorite despite the statistical advantages for Amil

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI correctly predicted Amil's win over JeongYeong Lee with a 0.54 confidence score, showing the model has insight into Amil's fighting style. However, the system has twice incorrectly predicted against Gomis, including his recent win over Jo