Analysis: Cody Brundage vs Julian Marquez

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Cody Brundage to Win

Score: 7
Odds:
Cody Brundage: 126
Julian Marquez: -162

Cody Brundage's Breakdown

Brundage brings a wrestling-heavy approach with surprising knockout power. His recent performance against Zachary Reese showcased his ability to blend grappling with striking, finishing with a slam and punches that earned him Performance of the Night.

Against Jacob Malkoun, Brundage showed good defensive awareness, though the fight ended via DQ due to an illegal elbow. His wrestling background has served him well in the octagon, completing 2.15 takedowns per fight with a solid 53% accuracy.

Brundage struggles when opponents neutralize his takedown attempts, as seen in his loss to Bo Nickal where his wrestling was countered effectively. His chin has proven vulnerable, evidenced by his KO/TKO loss to Michal Oleksiejczuk in the first round.

What makes Brundage dangerous is his first-round finishing ability. Six of his career victories have come in the opening round, including his guillotine choke win over Dalcha Lungiambula.

Julian Marquez's Breakdown

Marquez is on a concerning three-fight losing streak, with all three losses coming by stoppage. Most recently against Zachary Reese, Marquez was caught early and knocked out in the first round, exposing his tendency to start aggressively without proper defensive positioning.

His knockout loss to Gregory Rodrigues followed a similar pattern - Marquez landed a solid low kick but immediately threw another without resetting, allowing Rodrigues to counter with a straight right that led to the finish.

Before this skid, Marquez showed submission prowess with back-to-back victories over Sam Alvey (rear-naked choke) and Maki Pitolo (anaconda choke). His game is built around pressure and heavy hands, but his defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed repeatedly.

Marquez averages 4.86 significant strikes per minute, outpacing Brundage's 1.37, but his defense has been porous, absorbing 4.16 head strikes per minute compared to Brundage's 2.14.

Analysis and Key Points

• Brundage's wrestling advantage: With 2.51 recent takedowns per fight versus Marquez's zero, Brundage has a clear path to control.
• Marquez's defensive liabilities: All three recent losses came via stoppage, with his aggressive style leaving openings.
• First-round factor: Both fighters tend to either win or lose early - 6 of Brundage's wins came in R1.
• Striking volume vs accuracy: Marquez throws more (9.3 head strikes attempted per minute) but Brundage is more accurate (55.8% recent significant striking accuracy vs Marquez's 40.3%).
• Recent momentum: Brundage is 2-1 in his last three fights while Marquez has dropped three straight.

Understanding the Prediction

• Recent takedowns attempted per fight increased the model's score by 5.0 - Brundage's wrestling and grappling control is a major advantage.
• Recent win percentage increased the prediction score by 4.0 - Brundage's 67% recent win rate contrasts sharply with Marquez's 0%.
• Odds decreased the prediction score by 2.0 - The betting market favors Marquez (-162) despite his losing streak.
• Significant striking impact differential and TrueSkill each boosted Brundage's chances by 1.0, indicating his effectiveness when striking connects.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has been mixed on Brundage, correctly predicting his submission loss to Bo Nickal and his wins over Dalcha Lungiambula and Jacob Malkoun. The model was wrong about Brundage's KO win over Tresean Gore, suggesting it might underestimate his finishing power.

For Marquez, the model correctly predicted all three of his recent losses but failed on his most recent fight against Zachary